2025 Farm Program Payment Estimates Lowered After WASDE Report

The April 9 USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report did not include any significant changes to supply or demand, compared other recent WASDE reports. The 2025-26 projected ending stocks in the April report for corn and soybeans remained the same as the estimates a month earlier, while the wheat ending stocks were increased slightly. The expected 2025-26 market year average (MYA) prices for corn, soybeans and wheat were all increased slightly from the March price projections. This is important because it lowers the estimates for the potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments, which will be paid in October of 2026. These payments are very important this year for cash flow planning purposes. 
CORN
The latest WASDE report estimates the 2025-2026 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels, which would be an increase 37 percent from a year earlier. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks compare to a carry-out levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 bushels in 2021-22. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is estimated at 12.9 percent, which compares to ratios of 10.2 percent in 2024-25, 11.8 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23 and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. The current stocks-to-use ratio is still below the high corn stocks-to-use ratios of 14.6 percent for 2018-19, and 14.5 percent in 2017-18. The rather high projected carryout level could limit potential for significant rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months, especially if there are favorable weather conditions in the 2026 growing season. 
USDA is currently estimating the U.S market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which is an increase of $.05 per bushel the March estimate. The projected 2025-26 MYA price compares to recent national average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22. The 2025-2026 MYA price estimate for corn and soybeans is the expected average farm-level price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026; however, this does not represent the average price for either the 2025 or the 2026 calendar year. 
SOYBEANS
Soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year in the latest WASDE report are estimated at 350 million bushels. The projected 2025-26 carryout level compares to ending stocks of 325 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels for 2021-22. The projected soybean ending stocks for the current year would be highest in the past five years, but would still be considerably lower than the high carryout level of 913 million bushes in 2018-19, which existed during the last U.S. trade war with China. The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is now estimated at 8.2 percent, which compares to ratios of 7.3 percent in 2024-25, 8.3 percent in 2023-24, and 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22. The projected 2025-26 ratio is still well below the very high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19. There has been some improvement in soybean prices in recent weeks; however, further price enhancements will likely be dependent on future crush and export levels, along with 2026 growing conditions in the U.S. 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $10.30 per bushel, which is an increase of $.10 per bushel from the March estimate. The estimated 2025-26 market year average soybean price is above the final MYA price of $10,00 per bushel in 2024-25, which was the lowest average price since the 2020-21 marketing year. The 2025-26 price estimate compares to other recent average soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and the very low MYA price of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. Average cash soybean prices at local grain elevators in Southern Minnesota were $9.70 per bushel in mid-January, but were near $10.75 per bushel at the time of the April WASDE report. Prices at soybean processing plants were somewhat higher. 
WHEAT
The April WASDE report estimated the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 at 938 million bushels, which is an increase of 33.7 percent in the past two years. The projected 2025-26 wheat carryout level compares to 855 million bushels in 2024-25, 696 million bushels in 2023-24, and 570 million bushels in 2022-23. The 2025-26 farm-level average wheat price is now projected at $5.00 per bushel, which is an increase of $.05 per bushel from the March estimated price. The 2025-26 wheat price estimate compares to other recent MYA price levels of $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25, $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22, and $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21. The 2025-26 MYA price for wheat and other small grains is the average farm-level price in the U.S. from June 1, 2025 until May 31, 2026. 
2025 PLC or ARC-CO Payments Are Reduced 
The final 2025 MYA prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat are used to determine any potential Price Loss Coverage (PLC) or Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) payments for the 2025 crop year. If the MYA price for a crop is lower than the established reference price, there would a PLC payment. The potential ARC-CO payments are based on the MYA price and the final 2025 county average yield, compared to the benchmark (BM) price and county benchmark yield for 2025. For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of any potential PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops, with payments to be paid in October, 2026. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. 
Following is a brief summary of potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments: 
CORN - The 2025 PLC corn reference price is $4.42 per bushel, and the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $5.03 per bushel. Based on the April WASDE report, the estimated 2025 market year average (MYA) corn price is $4.15 per bushel. This is $.27 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 corn PLC payments and is $.88 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $30 to $40 per corn base acre, depending on the farm program yield. If the MYA price increases to $4.25 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would drop to about $20 to $30 per base acre; however, if the MYA price declines to $4.05 per bushel, the PLC estimate would increase to about $40 to $50 per base acre. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average corn yield that is about 5-10 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. The final 2025 ARC-CO payments will depend on specific county benchmark yields, as well as the final 2025 county average yields. 
SOYBEANS - The 2025 PLC soybean reference price is $10.71 per bushel, and the 2025 soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $12.17 per bushel. Based on the April WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is $10.30 per bushel. This is $.41 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 PLC payments and is $1.87 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $10.30 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $10 to $20 per soybean base acre. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. Similar to corn, final 2025 ARC-CO and PLC payments will vary depending on the final 2025 county yields and benchmark yields (ARC-CO), and on the established farm program yields (PLC). 
WHEAT - The 2025 PLC wheat reference price is $6.35 per bushel, and the 2025 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.98 per bushel. Based on the April WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA wheat price is $5.00 per bushel. This is $1.35 per bushel under the threshold for 2025 wheat PLC payments and is $1.98 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $5.00 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be about $40 to $50 per base ace. At the current MYA price estimate, the 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a 2025 county wheat yield that is about 25 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. It appears highly likely that there will be both a significant PLC or ARC-CO payment on wheat base acres for the 2025 crop year. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]