2025 Wheat PLC and ARC-CO Payments Nearly Final

USDA has announced the final 2025 market year average (MYA) prices for wheat and other small grain crops. The final 2025 MYA prices for wheat and small grains were based on the monthly average farm-level prices from June 1, 2025 until May 31, 2026. The monthly average prices are then “weighted”, based on the percentage of bushels sold each month, in order to arrive at a final MYA price for the marketing year. The 2025 MYA prices were finalized on June 30, 2026. The 2025 MYA price is used to calculate any potential 2025 PLC or AEC-CO farm program payments for wheat and small grains, with the payments to be paid in October, 2026.
 
The same process will be used to calculate the final 2025 MYA price for corn and soybeans. The 2025 market year for corn and soybeans runs from September 1, 2025 through August 31, 2026, with the MYA price finalized on September 30, 2026, Given the fact that there is only a few weeks remaining in the 2025 marketing year, the final MYA prices for corn and soybeans are not likely to vary significantly from current estimates Based on the USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report that was released on July 10, the current 2025 estimated MYA prices are $4.15 per bushel for corn and $10.40 per bushel for soybeans.
 
For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of calculated 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops. This provision means that it is likely that all eligible base acres of corn, soybean, wheat, and many other crops are likely to receive either a PLC or ARC-CO payment for the 2025 crop year. All 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be paid in October, 2026, similar to the payments for wheat and small grains. These payments will be automatically calculated by FSA offices and deposited into appropriate accounts. The provision allowing the higher of PLC or ARC-CO payments will only be in effect for the 2025 crop year. Farmers will again need to choose between PLC and ARC-CO for the 2026 crop year. Farm program sign-up for 2026 is likely to begin early this Fall at County FSA offices.
 
2025 PLC payments will be based on the PLC farm program yield on a given farm unit times the PLC payment amount per bushel, when the final MYA price is lower than the reference price. If the final MYA price is higher than the reference price, there is no PLC payment. Potential ARC-CO payments are based on the final county revenue (MYA price times the final 2025 county average yield), compared to the 2025 benchmark (BM) revenue (BM price times the county BM yield). The final 2025 county RMA yields were released in June and will be used to determine potential 2025 ARC-CO payments. If the 2025 ARC-CO payment is higher than the PLC payment for an eligible producer, they would receive the ARC-CO payment instead of the minimum PLC payment for a crop. All farm program payments are paid on 85 percent of crop base acres, so any calculated payments per acre need to be factored by .85 to arrive at an estimated payment per base acre.  It is important to remember that farm program payments are paid on crop base acres, and not on 2025 planted acres.
 
Following is the analysis of the likely 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for Wheat, Oats, and Barley:
Wheat --- The final 2025 market year average (MYA) wheat price is $5.06 per bushel. The 2025 PLC wheat reference price is $6.35 per bushel, and the 2025 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.98 per bushel. The final MYA price is $1.29 per bushel under the threshold for 2025 wheat PLC payments and is $1.92 below the 2025 benchmark price. At the final MYA price of $5.06 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be about $40 to $50 per wheat base acre in most counties in Minnesota, North and South Dakota, and other Upper Midwest States.  It appears highly likely that the 2025 PLC payments for wheat will exceed ARC-CO payments in most counties.  For there to be a chance for 2025 ARC-CO payments to exceed PLC payments, the  farm-level PLC yield would need to be approximately 65 percent or lower below the county benchmark yield.
Oats --- The final 2025 MYA price for oats is $3.23 per bushel. The 2025 PLC oats reference price is $3.05 per bushel, and the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $3.84 per bushel. The final MYA price is $.18 per bushel above the threshold for 2025 oats PLC payments, and is $.61 below the 2025 benchmark price. As a result of the MYA price exceeding the reference price, there will be no 2025 PLC payments for oats; however, it is possible that producers in many counties may qualify for an ARC-CO payment for oats. If the final 2025 county average yield was less than 7 percent above the county benchmark yield, ARC-CO payments would be initiated. The maximum ARC-CO payment would be reached at a final yield that is 7 percent below the benchmark yield.
 
Barley --- Similar to oats, there will be no 2025 PLC payment for barley. The final 2025 MYA price for barley is $5.46 per bushel, which was only one cent above the 2025 PLC reference price of $5.45 per bushel. However, the MYA price is $.65 per bushel below the 2025 barley benchmark price of $6.10 per bushel, making it likely that producers in many counties may qualify for an ARC-CO payment for barley. If the final 2025 county average barley yield was near the county benchmark yield, ARC-CO payments would be initiated. The maximum 2025 ARC-CO payment would be reached at a final 2025 yield that is about 13 percent below the benchmark yield.
 
Following is the latest update on likely 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for Corn and Soybeans:
Corn --- The good news is that it is likely that all eligible corn producers will receive a significant 2025 farm program payment. Based on the July WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA corn price is $4.15 per bushel. The estimated MYA price is $.27 per bushel below the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.42 per bushel, and is $.88 per bushel below the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $5.03 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be about $35 to $40 per corn base acre on farms with a PLC program yield of 150-170 per acre, and $30-$35 per base acre with a farm PLC yield of 130-150 bushels per acre. If the final MYA price increases by $.05 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would drop by about $5 to $7 per base acre; however, if the final MYA price declines by $.05 per bushel, the PLC estimate would increase by a similar amount. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final county average corn yield that is about 8-10 percent above the 2025 benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 104 percent or less of the county benchmark yield. The likelihood of PLC or ARC-CO payments is highly variable from county-to-county across the Midwest.
Soybeans --- Similar to corn, it is likely eligible soybean producers will receive a 2025 farm program payment.; however, it will likely be considerably lower than the corn payment in most counties. Based on the June WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is estimated at $10.40 per bushel. The estimated MYA price would be $.31 per bushel below the 2025 PLC soybean reference price of $10.71 per bushel, and would be $1.77 per bushel lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $12.17 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $10.40 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $10 to $15 per soybean base acre in most counties in the Upper Midwest, with a slightly low payment rate in the northern portions of the region. If the final MYA price increases by $.10 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would decline by about $4 to $5 per base acre. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 102 percent or less of the county benchmark yield.
County Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices provide information on farm-level PLC program yields and other farm program details; however, FSA offices do not provide estimates on farm program payments. Information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information is available on the USDA ARC-PLC web site at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.
The University of Illinois has an excellent spreadsheet to calculate estimated 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payment for various crops in specific counties. The website is at:  https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/.  For specific questions on 2025 farm program payments, contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, at: [email protected].
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]