During the next few weeks, farm operators will be finalizing their crop insurance decisions for the 2026 crop year. March 16th is the deadline to purchase crop insurance for the 2026 crop year. The Spring base prices for corn and soybeans will be finalized on March 2, 2026, and should be similar to crop insurance base prices in 2025. There have been increases to federal premium subsidies and other enhancements for crop insurance coverage in 2026. This should provide for some favorable crop insurance options and guarantees for the 2026 crop year at reasonable premium costs. Linking a revenue protection (RP) insurance policy with farm yields together with SCO and ECO insurance coverage can provide enhanced risk protection, which can be especially important in this era of low commodity prices.
Producers have several crop insurance policy options to choose from, including yield-only (YP) and revenue protection (RP and RPE) policies, SCO and ECO policies, and other private insurance options. In recent years, most farm operators have chosen revenue protection (RP) insurance options, which provide a guaranteed gross revenue per acre (yield x price). This guarantee is based on yield history (APH) on a farm unit times the Spring (base) price, which is the average of the CBOT prices during the month of February for December corn futures and November soybean futures.
As of January 26, the 2026 crop insurance Spring price estimates in the Upper Midwest for YP, RP, and RPE policies were estimated near $4.55 per bushel for corn and near $10.80 per bushel for soybeans. The 2026 Spring prices will be finalized on March 2. The current 2026 Spring price estimates compare to recent base prices $4.70/bu. for corn and $10.54/bu. for soybeans in 2025; $4.66/bu. for corn and $11.55/bu. for soybeans in 2024; $5.91/bu. for corn and $13.76/bu. for soybeans in 2023; and $5.90/bu. for corn and $14.33/bu. for soybeans in 2022. The final 2026 crop revenue will be the actual fam yield times the crop insurance harvest price, which is the average CBOT prices during October for December corn futures and November soybean futures.
An analysis for the past nineteen years (2007-2025) shows that the final crop insurance harvest price for corn has been lower than the Spring base price in thirteen of the nineteen years, including a decrease of ($.48) per bushel in 2025. The corn harvest price was also lower from 2013-2019. That trend was reversed from 2020-2022, when the harvest price for corn rose above the Spring price by +$.11 per bushel in 2020 +$.79 in 2021, and by +$.96 in 2022, before declining in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The only other years that saw an increase in the harvest price compared to the Spring price were 2010, 2011 and 2012.
An analysis of the past nineteen years for soybeans, shows that the harvest price has increased in seven years (2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2021) and decreased in eleven years (2008, 2011, 2014-2019, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025), while staying the same in 2013. The range has been from an increase of +$2.84 per bushel in 2012 to a decline of ($3.00) per bushel in 2008. In 2025, the harvest price was $10.35/bu., which was a decrease of ($.19) per bushel from the Spring price. The range of price variation for both corn and soybeans over the years highlights the importance of having a solid crop insurance policy in place for the 2026 crop year.
Another insurance option that usually has a lower premium than a typical RP policy with harvest price protection is a RPE (harvest price exclusion) policy. An RPE policy functions similarly to a standard RP policy except that the guarantees on RPE policies are fixed at the base price level and are not affected by harvest prices that exceed the base price. The revenue guarantee for standard RP policies is increased for final insurance calculations, if average CBOT prices during the month of October are higher than the February CBOT prices, which is what occurred for corn and soybeans in both 2020 and 2021, as well as for corn in 2022. The RPE option is not recommended to protect against losses due to large crop disasters, such as a drought or other disaster that affects a large portion of the Midwest, or other situations that could lead to price increases during the year.
SCO and ECO Insurance Coverage Improved for 2026
New for 2026 - The Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) coverage will be available to producers that choose the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program options for the 2026 crop year. The farm program choice will no longer impact the SCO insurance coverage decision, as it had in the past. SCO coverage allows producers to purchase additional county-level crop insurance coverage up to a maximum of 86 percent coverage in 2026, which will increase to 90 percent coverage in 2027. For example, a producer that purchases an 80% RP policy for corn or soybeans could purchase an additional 6% SCO coverage in 2026.
The Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) provides area-based insurance coverage from 86 percent up to 95 percent coverage, with producers having a choice between 90 or 95 percent ECO coverage. The purchase of ECO coverage is not linked to farm program enrollment. Producers can utilize both ECO and SCO together, in addition to their underlying RP, RPE, or YP insurance policy. SCO and ECO are county revenue-based insurance products that utilize the same crop insurance Spring prices and harvest prices as RP insurance policies; however, the biggest difference is that SCO and ECO utilize county level average yields, rather than the farm-level APH yields. As a result, the SCO and ECO insurance policies may achieve different results than the underlying RP policy. County yields are not finalized until May in the year following harvest, so any indemnity payments for SCO and ECO coverage would not be paid until early June in the following year.
The Federal government has increased the premium subsidies for both SCO and ECO coverage for 2026, which should make premiums more reasonable for crop insurance coverage options that include these products. For 2026, the 90 percent ECO coverage will have a premium subsidy of 80%, similar to SCO coverage, and 95 percent ECO coverage will have a premium subsidy of 65%. The added premium subsidies make the higher crop insurance coverage levels more affordable for 2026. The enhancements to SCO and ECO coverage allow farmers to reduce risk and insure a higher percentage of their expected 2026 crop production at a reasonable premium cost. Many crop insurance companies have combined SCO and ECO coverage with other private insurance buy-up policies to offer some very attractive risk management insurance packages for 2026.
“Enterprise Units” and “Optional Units”
“Enterprise units” combine all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit, while “optional units” allow producers to insure crops separately in each individual township section. “Enterprise units” usually have a lower premium cost (approx. $5.00-$10.00 per acre less) compared to “optional units” for comparable RP and RPE policies. Producers should be aware that “enterprise units” are based on larger coverage areas, and do not necessarily cover losses from isolated storms or crop damage that affect individual farm units, such as damage from hail, wind, or heavy rains that have occurred in recent years. It is important to understand the difference in insurance coverage and to analyze the yield risk on each individual farm unit, when determining if paying the extra premium for insurance coverage with “optional units” makes sense.
“Bottom-Line” on 2026 Crop Insurance Decisions
Producers have the option to purchase RP and RPE insurance coverage levels from 50% to 85%, and losses are paid if the final crop revenue falls below the revenue guarantee. Given the tighter margins for both corn and soybeans, there may be a tendency to reduce the level of crop insurance coverage for 2026. However, producers need to closely analyze their risk exposure for the 2026 crop year and adjust their crop insurance coverage accordingly. The enhancements to SCO and ECO insurance coverage allows crop producers to greatly improve their risk protection at a fairly reasonable cost. Crop insurance remains one of the best risk management tools that is available for farm operators to protect their investment in crop production.
A reputable crop insurance agent is the best source of information to find out more details about the various crop insurance products that are offered, to get premium quotes, and to help finalize 2026 crop insurance decisions. Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared an information sheet titled: “2026 Crop Insurance Decisions”. To receive a free copy, send an email to: [email protected]
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

The multiple USDA reports that are typically released in January are often known as being a “market mover”, and it appears that 2026 will continue that trend. The World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on January 12th seems to have set a negative tone for corn and soybean markets in the early months of 2026. USDA made a significant increase in the final 2025 corn production estimate, based on increasing the final 2025 record national average corn yield and increasing the 2025 harvested corn acres by over 1 million acres. The fairly large increase in the total corn supply, together with only a minor increase in corn usage estimates, resulted in a notable increase in projected ending stocks for corn, compared to a month earlier. The WASDE report also made some adjustments to soybean supply and demand data that were also viewed as negative for grain markets. The initial market reaction following the release of the WASDE report was a significant decrease in both corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). 
CORN 
The updated National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report for 2025 that was released on January 12th estimated the final 2025 U.S. average corn yield at the record level of 186.5 bushels per acre, which was an increase of 0.5 bushels per acre from the November estimate. The 2025 corn yield surpasses previous record U.S. yields of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024 and 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023. The USDA 2025 corn yield estimate surpassed national average yield projection of nearly all grain market analysts. The overall average yield estimate by the analysts was 184 bushels per acre. The USDA corn yield estimates in January were increased significantly in Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and North Dakota, compared to the previous yield estimates in November, 2025. 
The NASS report showed Minnesota as having a record corn 2025 yield at 201 bushels per acre, compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024 and surpassing the previous record yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022. Iowa is projected to have a corn yield of 210 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 211 bushels per acre in 2024. Other projected state average corn yields for 2025 compared to 2024 yields are Illinois at 214 bushels per acre, compared to 217 bushels per acre; Indiana at 204 bushels per acre (record), compared to 198 bushels per acre; Ohio at 185 bushels per acre, compared to 177 bushels per acre; Nebraska at 194 bushels per acre (record), compared to 188 bushels per acre; Wisconsin at 188 bushels per acre (record), compared to 174 bushels per acre; South Dakota at 171 bushels per acre (record), compared to 164 bushels per acre; and North Dakota at 158 bushels per acre (record), compared to 149 bushels per acre. 
The latest WASDE report listed the total 2025 U.S. corn production at the record level of just over 17 billion bushels, which was increased from 16.75 billion bushels in November. The projected 2025 U.S. corn production was up 14.3 percent from 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, and was also above 15.34 billion bushels in 2023. The latest USDA report put the total demand for corn usage in 2025-26 at just under 16.4 billion bushels, which is an 8.2 percent increase from the 2024-25 corn usage. USDA is projecting corn export levels to increase by 342 million bushels in 2025-26, along with increases of 746 million bushels in corn used for feed and 164 million bushels in corn processed into ethanol. 
USDA is estimating 2025-2026 U.S. corn ending stocks at nearly 2.23 billion bushels, which was an increase of 198 million bushels from the December WASDE report. The estimated 2025-26 ending stocks are 43.5 percent higher than the final carryover of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, and the current projected ending stocks also substantially exceeds the carryover of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24. The 2025-26 corn stocks-to-use ratio is now estimated at the relatively high level of 13.6 percent, which compares to ratios of 10.3 percent in 2024-25, as well as 11.8 percent in 2023-24 and 9.9 percent in 2022-23. The projected 2025-26 ratio is comparable to the relatively high stocks-to-use ratios of 13.7 percent in 2019-20 and 14.6 percent in 2018-19. The large available corn supply could limit the potential for short-term rallies in the cash corn market or local basis improvement in the coming months. 
USDA is estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.10 per bushel, which is an increase of $.10 per bushel from the December estimate. The market year average (MYA) corn and soybean price estimates for 2025-26 are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2025 crop from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026; however, the MYA price does not represent estimated price for either the 2025 or 2026 calendar year. The projected 2025-26 corn price compares to final MYA price of $4.24 for 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23 and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current projected MYA price still exceeds the national average corn prices of $3.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19, and $3.36 per bushel in 2017-18. 
SOYBEANS 
The latest NASS report projects the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53 bushels per acre, which was the same as the November estimate. The 2025 yield compares to recent final U.S. average yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, and 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022. Total U.S. soybean production for 2025 is estimated at 4.262 billion bushels, which is a decrease of 112 million bushels from the 2024 production level. The recent WASDE report estimates soybean demand at 4.257 billion bushels for the 2025-26 marketing year, which is a decrease of 164 million bushels from 2024-25 soybean demand levels. Soybean crush levels are expected to increase by 125 million bushels in the current marketing year; however, while soybean exports are expected to decline by 307 million bushels from 2024-25 levels, and would be 125 million bushels below 2023-24 export levels. 
The latest WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year at 350 million bushels, which is an increase of 60 million bushels from the December report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks would be an increase of 25 million bushels from the 2024-25 carryout level of 325 million bushels. The updated 2025-26 projected ending stocks compares to other recent year-end carryout levels of 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. Current carryover levels are still well below the ending stocks of 525 million bushels in 2019-20 and 913 million bushels in 2018-19. 
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is now estimated at 8.2 percent, which is an increase from the final ratio of 7.4 percent in 2024-25, and compares to ending ratios of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, and 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22. The projected 2025-26 ratio is still considerably lower than the very high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The increase in the 2025-26 estimated soybean supply may limit opportunities for some short-term rallies in cash soybean prices in the coming months, unless weather issues develop in South America, or this coming growing season with the 2026 U.S. soybean crop. 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level (MYA) soybean price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel, which is a decrease of $.30 per bushel from the December estimate. The estimated 2025-26 average soybean price compares to the final soybean MYA prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The 2025-26 MYA price estimate would still be considerably higher than the MYA soybean prices of $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20 and $8.48 per bushel in 2018-19, which occurred during the last trade war with China. 
Bottom Line following the January WASDE Report 
Both corn and soybean market prices had a very negative market response following the release of the WASDE report on January 12, with corn decreasing by over 24 cents per bushel and soybean prices declining by about 14 cents per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the report. The USDA Grain Stocks report on January 12 indicated that as of December 1 there were 8.7 billion bushels of corn stored on farms in the U.S., including 1.45 billion bushels in Iowa and 1.2 billion bushels in Minnesota. It is likely that a high percentage of the bushels stored on farms are not yet priced, which means that the price decline on January 12 resulted in a lost asset value on the stored corn inventory of over $2 billion. A farmer that had 1,000 acres of corn in 2025 that yielded 220 bushels per acre would have 220,000 bushels of corn. If that corn is stored on the farm and not priced, that farmer lost nearly $53,000 in reduced value on his corn inventory immediately following the January WASDE report. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

Many farm operations are coming off the second relatively poor profit year in 2025, especially crop producers in several areas. Some farmers had very small profit levels last year, while other producers had very poor results in 2025. In all cases, most farm operators continue to face very tight profit margins for crop production as we head into 2026. During these challenging farm financial times, it is good to plan ahead before meeting with an ag lender for renewal of a farm operating line of credit or for an annual review of the farm financial portfolio.
 
Following are some tips for farm operators to be more proactive, as they are preparing for an annual meeting with their ag lender:
 
Prepare an up-to-date 2025 year-end farm balance sheet (as of 12-31-25 or 1-01-26).
Preparation of an accurate and up-to-date year-end balance sheet is critical to the loan renewal process for any farm operation. Updating the previous year’s balance sheet with current year-end numbers can help expedite the process. If the farm operation is a sole proprietorship, most ag lenders will also want personal asset and liability data included. If it is a partnership or family corporation, most ag lenders will also require personal balance sheets from all partners.
 
A good year-end balance sheet will include:
• List of accounts receivable as of 12-31-25, which includes whom the money is due from, the dollar amount, and the date it will be received. This includes deferred payments for grain sold in 2025, as well as potential Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, SDRP payments, etc.
• List of accounts payable as of 12-31-25, listing who the money is owed to, the dollar amount, and when payment will be due. Be sure to include any items listed as current assets where payment is still due, as well as final 2025 land rental payments that were still due as 12-31-25.
• List of 2026 prepaid expenses for both crops and livestock as of 12-31-25, which details the input, amount of the input, and the amount that was prepaid. This is for items where payment has occurred.
• Grain and livestock inventory list as of 12-31-25. The grain inventory should include total bushels of each crop, bushels that are forward priced (date and price for each sale), and any sales plans for the remaining bushels. Livestock inventory should include the number, weight, and any sales information on market or feeder livestock. An updated list and estimated value of breeding livestock should be included as an intermediate asset rather than a current asset. 
• Marketing Assistance Loans (MAL’s) on 2025 grain that were taken prior to 1-01-26, listing the bushel amount, MAL loan rate, MAL interest rate, MAL loan maturity date, and sales plans for MAL grain.
• Review the list of farm machinery and equipment, buildings and facilities, and other capital assets, removing any assets that have been sold or removed, and adding any assets that were purchased or acquired during 2025. Farm machinery values should be adjusted to represent current market values.
• Add any land or other long-term assets that were added in 2025 and adjust asset values as necessary (may want to review this with an ag lender).
• List of all other loans and creditors as of 12-31-25, listing the principal balance, interest rate, payment amount, and payment dates. Be sure to include short-term creditors for crop and livestock inputs, loans with family members, and MAL loans through FSA offices.
 
Prepare a 2025 year-end income and expense statement as of 12-31-25.
The year-end income statement from the previous year should be based on actual sales of grain and livestock during 2025, which will likely include some 2024 inventory that existed at the beginning of the year, as well as any 2025 grain or livestock that was sold during the year. The 2025 expenses would include any accounts payable from the beginning of the year balance sheet that were paid in 2025 and any 2026 prepaid expenses that were paid in 2025, in addition to the other crop and livestock expenses that were paid throughout the year. A preliminary 2025 federal tax return is a good resource to prepare an income statement. 
 
Prepare a budget-to-actual summary for the previous year (as of 12-31-25).
Once the 2025 income and expense statement has been finalized, and accrual adjustments are made based on the year-end balance sheet, it always good to review the actual year-end financial analysis compared to the budgeted cash flow analysis that was prepared at the beginning of the year. Pay attention to the big differences that exist in crop and livestock income and the various expense items, as well as determine explanations for those differences. Analyze for any potential adjustments that are needed for 2026.
 
Prepare a preliminary 2026 budget and cash flow analysis.
Preparing an accurate and complete budget and cash flow analysis for 2026 is a very important part of the loan renewal process and can assist with grain marketing decisions for the 2026 crop year. A high-quality cash flow analysis will likely include:
• Planned crop and livestock production for the year, including acres of various crops, anticipated production levels, and any current or planned sales of the 2026 production.
• A grain and livestock marketing plan that includes a list of the amount sold, the contracted price, and the date to be delivered, as well as plans for remaining unpriced grain and livestock inventories.
• A list of planned crop and livestock inputs for 2026, including the contracted or planned price of the inputs and when the expense will be incurred.
• A detailed list of rented farm land for 2026, which includes the name of the farm owner, acres rented, amount of rent (including flexible lease details), and dates when rent payments are due.
• Include income received for accounts receivable on the year-end balance sheet, and account for the payment of expenses for the listed accounts payable at the beginning of the year.
• Include any other farm income (custom work, etc.) and non-farm expenses (family living, personal loans, etc.) that must be accounted for in the cash flow analysis for the farm.
• Provide details of planned 2026 crop insurance coverage, such as updated APH yields, percentage coverage, enterprise versus optional units, and the addition of hail or wind insurance. (Your ag lender may be a good resource for these decisions.)
• Provide a copy of FSA farm program information listing the crop base acres and FSA program yield for each farm unit. Discuss the 2026 farm program choice with your ag lender.
• Include any planned changes or adjustments in the farming operation for 2026 in the cash flow analysis, including farm machinery purchases or sales, adding or selling land or other assets, and any other changes to the farm business, as well as any changes in personal assets or liabilities.
• Include likely Farmer Bridge Assistance payments expected for late February, as well as potential “top-up” 2023 and 2024 SDRP payments likely to occur later this year. Potential 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payment estimates for corn, soybeans, or wheat could also be included; however, be sure to use realistic market year average (MYA) price estimates, and make sure that you are using the correct payment calculation formula for accurate projections.  
 
It is best to include all partners and family members that are part of the farm operation with the preparation of relevant financial information and in the renewal process with an ag lender. It is important for all key players to be “on the same page” with financial decisions affecting the farm business. It is very important to be trustworthy and honest in preparing and sharing financial information with an ag lender to help assure confidence in the accuracy of the financial data. View an ag lender as an informal partner in developing farm business strategies, as a good ag lender can be a valuable resource in making management decisions. Farm operators should expect their ag lenders to be well prepared, trustworthy and honest in financial dealings. Most ag lenders are part of the local community and want to see farmers have financial success, which is in the best interest of both the farm business and the ag lending institution.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

At the end of December, USDA announced the payment rates for the various crops that are included in the “Farmer Bridge Assistance” (FBA) program. A total of $12 billion was allocated for the FBA program to provide economic assistance payments to producers of certain crops to offset low prices and poor profit margins for the 2025 crop year, as well as the market price impacts from tariffs on export markets for certain crops in the past year. Of that total, $11 billion of the payments will be paid to producers of traditional farm program Title I crops, which includes corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice. The remaining $1 billion will be held back for economic assistance for specialty crop producers.
 
FBA payments will be based on the 2025 planted acres of eligible crops, as reported to local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices on or before December 19, 2025. Any prevent plant acres in 2025 are not eligible for the FBA payments. The payment amounts for each crop were based on the national average yield times the projected 2025-26 market year average (MYA) price in the December 9, 2025 WASDE report, minus the 2025 average production cost for a commodity, based on USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) data. The MYA prices in the December WASDE report were $4.00 per bushel for corn, $10.50 per bushel for soybeans, and $5.50 per bushel for wheat.
 
Following are the FBA economic assistance payment rates that were announced foe some of the most common crops:

• Corn - $44.36 per acre 
• Soybeans -  $30.88 per acre
• Wheat - $39.35 per acre
• Oats - $81.75 per acre      
• Barley - $20.51 per acre
• Peas - $19.60 per acre
• Sorghum - $48.11 per acre
• Cotton - $117.35 per acre
• Rice - $132.89 per acre
• Peanuts - $55.65per acre

FBA payment rates were also announced for canola, chickpeas, flax, mustard, safflower, sesame, and sunflower. No details have been released on how the $1 billion in specialty crop funds will be allocated.
 
Applications for the FBA program will be made through local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. FSA will provide a pre-filled FBA application form to producers that will list the 2025 crop acreage and other pertinent information. Producers will then need verify the information and sign the application form. The pre-filled application forms should be available at FSA offices by the week of February 23. Distribution of the FBA payments is expected to begin by February 28.
 
The payment limit for the FBA payments will be $155,000 per eligible person or legal entity. There will not be higher payment limits based on having 75 percent of taxable income received from farming enterprises, similar to some previous FSA programs. Entities such as corporations, LLC’s, S corporations, and trusts will be limited to one payment limit of $155,000. Any person or legal entity with an adjusted gross income (AGI) exceeding $900,000, based on FSA criteria, will not be eligible to receive any FBA payments.
 
Farmers seeking more information on the “Farmer Bridge Payments” can contact their local FSA office. For more information on the FBA program requirements and payment rates can go to the USDA FBA website at:
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/farmer-bridge-assistance-fba-program
Following are some common questions regarding the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Payments:
Why are the FBA payments needed ?
Depending on the final 2025 crop yield, the typical Midwest crop producer probably has a breakeven market price of $4.50 to $5.25 per bushel for the 2025 corn crop to cover all production expenses (not including any profit). The 2025 breakeven price for most farmers is likely $10.50 to $11.50 per bushel for soybeans, and over $6.00 per bushel for wheat. As was mentioned earlier, USDA is currently estimating the 2025-26 MYA prices at $4.00 per bushel for corn, $10.50 per bushel for soybeans, and $5.00 per bushel for wheat, which are all well below breakeven levels for many producers. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) is estimating that based on the average crop revenue (est. national average yield x projected MYA price) minus the average 2025 cost of production (farm input and overhead expenses), the average farmer will have the following estimated negative profit margins for 2025:

• Corn - Minus ($169) per acre
• Soybeans - Minus ($114) per acre
• Wheat - Minus ($112) per acre

 
Based on these estimates and the listed FBA payment rates, the FBA payments will cover approximately 26 percent of the estimated shortfall for corn, 27 percent of the estimated shortfall for soybeans, and 35 percent of the estimated shortfall for wheat.
 
Are the payment amounts for the various crops equitable ?
Some Midwest crop producers have questioned the rather high per acre payment amounts for some of the crops typically raised in Southern States, such as FBA payment rates of $132.89 per acre for rice, $117.35 per acre for cotton, and $55.65 per acre for peanuts. Based on the USDA ERS economic data referenced earlier, the estimated 2025 negative profit margins are minus ($379) per acre for cotton, minus ($173) per acre for peanuts, and minus ($154) per acre for rice. Based on these estimates, the FBA payment rates account for approximately 31 percent of the shortfall for cotton and 32 percent of the shortfall for peanuts, which is similar to the percentage for wheat; however, the FBA payment rate for rice would cover about 86 percent of the projected profit margin shortfall. It should be noted that one of the largest negative profit margins per acre in the Upper Midwest in 2025 was on sugar beets, which are not covered by the initial round of FBA payments.
 
It is estimated that $4.3 billion or 39 percent of the $11 billion total for FBA payments will be allocated for corn payments. Other estimated total payment amounts for various commodities include soybeans at just under $2.5 billion (22.5%), wheat at $1.9 billion (17.2%), cotton at $942 million (8.5%), and rice at $368 million (3.3%). The Midwest and Corn Belt States are projected to receive approximately $6.9 billion (64%) in total FBA payments, while Southern and Southwest States are projected to receive about $2.8 billion (26%), with the balance going to California and the Western States, as well as to the Northeastern States.
 
How many acres will be required to reach the $155,000 FBA payment limit ?
Following are examples of the estimated acres required to reach the $155,000 payment limit with various crop mixtures:

• 100% Corn ($44.36/A.)  = 3,494 acre
• 100% Soybeans ($30.88/A.)  = 5,019 acres
• 100% Wheat ($39.35/A.)  = 3,939 acres
• 2/3 Corn; 1/3 Soybeans (ave. $39.86/A.)  = 3,889 acres
• 1/2 Corn; 1/2 Soybeans (ave. $37.62/A.)  = 4,120 acres
• 1/3 Corn; 1/3 Soybeans; 1/3 Wheat (ave. $38.20/A.)  = 4,058 acres

 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]