The U.S. Congress passed a “Continuing Resolution” in late December that included $10 billion in farm economic assistance to offset low commodity prices and $21 billion in disaster assistance to provide aid for farmers with losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024. Many Midwest crop producers are counting on receiving this extra income in 2025 to help offset the current tight margins in crop production. As of this writing, USDA has not yet released any information through local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices to provide any details to farmers and ag lenders on what those payments might be. Now that Brooke Rollins has been confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, many ag experts are expecting details on these ad hoc programs to be made available very soon.
In addition, it is very difficult to estimate potential 2024 farm program payments for corn and soybeans that were enrolled the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) program last year, due to changes at the USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). Potential 2025 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on a 12-month average price and final average 2024 crop yield, with any payments occurring in October, 2025. Normally NASS released preliminary average county corn and soybean yields in late February each year, which could then be used to estimate potential ARC-CO payments for the previous crop year. In April of 2024, NASS announced that the agency was discontinuing the release of county yield data beginning with the 2024 yield data that would have been released in 2025. Since there are no other credible sources of county yield data, farmers and ag lenders will now need to wait until late May or early June to get final county yield data from the USDA Risk management Agency (RMA) to estimate potential 2024 ARC-CO payments.
                  Most Midwest farm operators finalize their farm cash flow plans for the upcoming year during the months of January and February, sometimes with the assistance of an ag lender or farm business management advisor. Many times, ag lenders utilize these cash flow projections to determine the viability of farm operating loans for the year. A negative cash flow projection for the year can impact or delay the ability of a farmer to access needed operating credit to purchase seed, fertilizer and other crop inputs for the coming growing season. Due to the low grain prices and very tight projected profit margins for crop production in 2025, many farmers ag lenders are counting on some added income in 2025 from the ad hoc government payments that were approved late in 2024 and potential
2024 farm program payments.
                  Even though we do not have official information of the economic assistance or disaster payments, as well as potential 2024 farm program payments, farmers and ag lenders can rest assured that some of these payments will occur yet in 2025. Following is a summary of the various potential payments:
Farm Economic Assistance Payments
                  One of the most important pieces of the Continuing Resolution legislation that was signed into law late in 2024, which will provide farm economic assistance payments to many crop producers. The economic assistance were established to provide payments to producers of certain crops to offset low prices and poor profit margins for the 2024 crop year. The eligible commodities include barley, corn, cotton, dry peas, grain sorghum, lentils, large chickpeas, oats, peanuts, rice small chickpeas, soybeans, other oilseeds, and wheat. These payments will be based on the planted acres to eligible crops in 2024, as reported to local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. In addition, 50 percent of 2024 prevent plant acres to eligible crops will be eligible for payments.
The estimated commodity payment rates range from near $5 per acre for sesame seed to near $80 per acre for cotton. The estimated payment rates for major crops in the Midwest are $42.51 per acre for corn, $29.50 per acre for soybeans, and $30.80 per acre for wheat. It should be noted that these are estimated payment rates, as no official payment rates have been released by USDA. The legislation required the economic assistance payments to be implemented within 90 days of enactment of the legislation, which would be late March in 2025. 2023 and 2024 Disaster Assistance The Continuing Resolution legislation that was enacted in late 2024 also included $21 billion in disaster assistance for 2023 and 2024 agricultural losses from natural disasters, such as drought, hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, wildfires, excessive rainfall, etc. Farmers and ranchers in many portions of the U.S. may qualify for the disaster payments for one or both years, including the Upper Midwest that had areas impacted by drought in 2023 and by excessive rainfall in 2024. Specific details for the disaster program have not been announced by USDA; however, it is assumed that the payment formula will likely be similar to the Economic Relief Program (ERP) payments from 2020 and 2021. The disaster payments will be implemented by local FSA offices at some point in 2025. Based on the previous formula, disaster payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other major commodities would be calculated separately for the 2023 and 2024 crop years and will likely be based on reported crop insurance yields. The payments would be additional payments over and above the crop insurance indemnity payments that were already paid. The payment formula will likely be based off of a set percentage of the crop insurance revenue guarantee for the year (APH yield x Spring price guarantee) minus the actual crop value (final yield x Fall harvest
price) minus crop insurance indemnity payments that were paid, and then factored by a set percentage.
Potential 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Many crop producers in the Midwest are enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for the 2024 crop year, rather than the “price-only” Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. The reference prices for the PLC program and the benchmark prices for the ARC-CO program for both corn and soybeans increased in 2024. The marketing year to determine the 2024 market year average (MYA) prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025. For producers in the PLC program, the final MYA price needs to drop below the crop reference price to earn a payment, as opposed to the ARC-CO program which determines payments based on a final county revenue (county yield and MYA price). Following is a summary of potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the February USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, 2024 ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 2-3 percent below the 2024 county benchmark yield.
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $10.10 per bushel. This is $.84 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $1.02 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield that is about 4-5 percent below the county benchmark yield.
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.55 per bushel. This is only $.05 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments and is $.41 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 4 percent below the county benchmark yield. Any 2024 ARC-CO or PLC payments will not be paid until October, 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site
at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.     
Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

2025 Farm  Program  Decisions  Are  More  Challenging
April 15 is the deadline to sign-up for the 2025 farm program at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices throughout the United States or online at on the USDA FSA website. Eligible producers are able to choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) farm program choices. The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based ARC-CO program choice and the ARC-IC program, which is based on farm-level yields. In recent years, corn and soybean producers have tended to lean toward ARC-CO over PLC for their farm program choice. Farmers may want to “push the pencil” or run the farm program calculators a bit more this year to determine their best farm program choice for 2025, especially for corn.
 
Following are some of the common questions that have been raised regarding 2025 farm program sign-up , along with some potential answers and considerations:

• Do I need to sign-up for the 2025 farm program if I do not intend to change my PLC or ARC-CO choice from 2025 ?

Based on FSA guidelines and requirements, farm units will automatically remain with the same farm program option as 2024 if no farm program choice is made for 2025. However, producers would still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program by April 15, 2025, to remain eligible for program benefits. Farm operators need to complete the proper FSA forms to finalize both steps in the farm program enrollment process. Producers can enroll in different farm program choices on separate farm units for the same crop, as well as for each crop.
 

• What are my considerations to make the best farm program choice for corn in 2025 ?

The odds of receiving either a corn 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payment for corn are improved due to higher benchmark (BM) and reference prices. The 2025 PLC reference price for corn is $4.26 per bushel, while the 2025 BM price is $5.03 per bushel. PLC payments begin at a final 2025 MYA price below $4.26 per bushel, while potential 2025 ARC-CO payments are dependent on the final 2025 county average yield and the final MYA price. At a 2025 MYA price of $5.03 per bushel, the county yield would need to be 15 percent or more below the BM yield to initiate an ARC-CO payment. For example, if the county BM yield is 200 bushels per acre, the final county yield needs to be 170 bushels per acre or lower to earn a 2025 ARC-CO payment.
 
Another way to look at ARC-CO payments would be if the final 2025 county yield is the same as the benchmark yield. In that situation, ARC-CO payments would be initiated if the final MYA price drops below $4.32 per bushel, compared to PLC payments being initiated at a final 2025 MYA price below $4.26 per bushel. If the final 2025 county average yield is 2 percent above the BM yield, which is only 3-4 bushels per acre in most Midwest counties, both ARC-CO and PLC payments would be initiated below $4.26 per bushel. If county average yields rise above county benchmark yields, the odds of receiving a higher 2025 ARC-CO payment compared to a PLC payment are diminished. The final corn MYA price from 2014-2019 was below $4.26 per bushel and resulted in corn PLC payments from 2015-2019. The recent MYA prices were $4.53/bu. in 2020, $6.00/bu. in 2021, $6.54/bu. in 2022, and $4.55/bu. in 2023. The current 2024 MYA corn price estimate is $4.25/bu., which would be very near the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.26/bu.
 

• Are there other considerations regarding the farm program choice for corn in 2025 ?

The PLC program for 2025 will provide corn price protection with potential PLC payments extending from $4.26/bu. down to $2.20/bu. The maximum PLC payment in most Midwest counties is probably $250 to $290 per base acre, while the maximum ARC-CO payment is probably $85 to $95 per base acre. For farm operators that are very concerned about potential significant corn price declines later in 2025 into 2026, the PLC farm program choice for 2025 provides a nice “safety net”. For producers that are less concerned about future corn prices, but are more concerned with the potential for drought in 2025, ARC-CO may be a better farm program choice for corn in 2025.

• What are factors that affect the 2025 farm program decision for soybeans ?

The 2025 soybean benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel and the 2025 reference price is $9.66 per bushel. The MYA price needs to drop below $9.66 per bushel to initiate 2025 PLC payments. The only time since 2014 that the MYA price has dropped below $9.66 per bushel was in the 2018 and 2019 marketing years, which were during the “trade war” with China. At a 2025 MYA price of $9.66 per bushel and a 2025 county yield the same as the benchmark yield, there would be a significant soybean ARC-CO payment for 2025. USDA has not made a PLC payment for soybeans in any year since the PLC program was initiated in 2014.  
 
At a final MYA price of $12.17/bu., the final county yield for 2025 will need to be 15 percent or more below the 2025 county benchmark yield to initiate a 2025 soybean ARC-CO payment, which equates to a 2025 county average yield decline of 7-10 bushels or more per acre in most Midwest counties. Given the current soybean price projections, the 2025 farm program choice probably leans toward ARC-CO in most instances; however, the odds of a 2025 ARC-CO payment will be dependent on the soybean price trends following the 2025 harvest season, as well as the final 2025 county average yield.
 

• What about the 2025 farm program choice for wheat ?

The PLC reference price increased by $.06 per bushel to $5.56 per bushel for 2025, while the ARC-CO benchmark price for wheat increased to $6.72 per bushel for 2025. The final wheat MYA price was below $5.56 per bushel from 2015-2020, with substantial PLC payments earned in many of those years; however, the recent MYA wheat prices have been $7.63/bu. in 2021, $8.83/bu. in 2022, and $6.96/bu. in 2023. The current projected 2024 MYA price is $5.55/bu. The calculations for comparing PLC and ARC-CO as a 2025 farm program choice for wheat in 2025 are very similar to the calculations for corn. Generally, wheat producers have tended to favor the PLC program over the ARC-CO program in recent years, due to the favorable PLC payments from 2014 to 2020; however, the higher ARC-CO benchmark price for 2025, along with the price and yield uncertainty, makes the 2025 farm program decision more challenging.
 

• Are there situations where ARC-IC might be a favorable farm program choice ?

The program utilizes the same BM price and final MYA price as the ARC-CO program; however, ARC-IC is based on farm-level yields rather that the county-based yields. The ARC-IC program must be applied to all covered commodities on a given FSA farm unit, and all farm units in a State that are enrolled in ARC-IC are considered together in one ARC-IC calculation. In addition, ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of crop base acres, compared to payments on 85 percent of base acres for PLC and ARC-CO payments, which tends to limit instances where ARC-IC is a favorable farm program option.
 

• How is the “Market Year Average” (MYA) price determined ?

All 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on the market year average (MYA) price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026, which means that the current price levels may not impact the final 2025 MYA prices. The MYA price is a monthly average farm-level price from throughout the U.S. that is then “weighted” for the volume of bushels sold in each month. The 2025 MYA price marketing year for wheat and small grains runs from June 1, 2025, through May 31. 2026.
 

• What are some good PLC/ARC-CO resources to assist with farm program decisions ?

For official information on PLC and ARC-CO programs, and other farm program details, go to the FSA farm program website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. Kent Thiesse, farm management analyst, has prepared an information sheet titled “2025 Farm Program Decision “Cheat Sheet”, which is available by sending an email to: [email protected]. Following are links to some very good farm program calculators to estimate potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments at various final MYA prices and final county yields: 

• University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/
• North Dakota State University --- https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
• Kansas State University --- http://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill
• Iowa State University ---  https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]