Like the start of a big NASCAR race or the beginning of a Championship game, many farmers in Southern Minnesota and Iowa began full-scale field work during the week of April 13-19. Farm operators in many portions of the western Corn Belt have reported almost ideal soil conditions; however, rainfall and wet soil conditions during the first half of April have delayed the initiation of major fieldwork in much of the eastern Corn Belt. It appears that the 2025 planting season may be similar to last year in much of the Upper Midwest, with fairly favorable corn and soybean planting conditions in the last half of April. Having favorable weather and planting conditions in April is always a big plus for getting the corn and soybean crop off to a good start.
Some areas of the Midwest received some much-needed precipitation in late March and early April, including additional rainfall this past week in some areas. Much of the south central and southeast Minnesota received 2-3 inches of precipitation in the past three weeks, with even higher amounts in localized areas, which has delayed planting progress in some areas. Precipitation amounts have been significantly less in the Western Corn Belt.
The recent precipitation followed extremely dry conditions during most of the Winter and the first half of March. This continued a dryness pattern across the Upper Midwest has existed since last Fall. In the latest USDA weekly crop report, the percentage of topsoil moisture in various States that was listed as “short” or “very short” included: both South Dakota and Nebraska 72%, Kansas at 54%, North Dakota at 54%, Iowa at 31%, and Minnesota at 28%, with Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Wisconsin at less than 10 %. The levels of top soil moisture are below normal for early in the growing season in most areas of the Western Corn Belt.
Many areas of the Western Midwest and Plains States have remained quite dry in recent weeks. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor on April 15 showed the “abnormally dry” or more severe drought listing at 70 percent or higher in most of the States in the region. South Dakota, North Dakota, and Nebraska were the driest States in the Western Corn Belt with 36 to 40 percent of each State in the “severe” or “extreme” drought category. The percentage of “severe” or “extreme” drought in Minnesota and Iowa was less than 10 percent. Only a small portion of the eastern Corn Belt was listed as “abnormally dry” or worse in the latest Drought Monitor summary. The good news is that drought conditions have improved in many potions of Minnesota and Iowa in recent weeks. The very dry conditions and “drought-like” conditions have continued in most areas of Nebraska, North and South Dakota, as well as adjoining areas of western Minnesota.
In years such as this, with an early start to the planting season, crop producers need to pay attention to the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) planting date guidelines to maintain full crop insurance coverage for the 2025 corn and soybean crop. The earliest corn planting date allowed by RMA to maintain full crop insurance protection in most of Minnesota and Iowa was April 11, while April 21 is the earliest planting date allowed for soybean planting for full insurance coverage. For initial and final planting dates in all States and other Federal crop insurance information, please refer to the RMA website at: https://www.rma.usda.gov/.
Soil temperatures during early April remained below levels for ideal corn planting in many areas of the Upper Midwest. At the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center near Waseca in Southern Minnesota, the 24-hour average soil temperature during the first week of April was near 40 degrees Fahrenheit at the 2 to 4-inch level; however those soil temperatures warmed up to near 50 degrees by April 13-18, which is near the minimum desired soil temperature for good corn planting and seed germination conditions. Soil temperatures should warm up rapidly in the Upper Midwest, with some much warmer temperatures expected by late-April. Farmers and agronomists tend to pay close attention to soil temperatures early in the growing season; however, soil temperatures become less of a concern by late April. At that point, getting the crop in the ground gets to be more of a priority rather than soil temperatures, as the ideal corn planting window gets much shorter.
Research shows that 50 percent corn emergence will occur in 20 days at an average soil temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, which is reduced to only 10 days with an average soil temperature of 60 degrees F. The likely enhancement in soil temperatures certainly provides optimism to have favorable conditions for corn germination and seedling growth. The warmer soil temperatures are also favorable for the initiation of soybean planting, which usually occurs in late April and May in many areas. Every year is different, and agronomists encourage producers to adjust to soil conditions and weather forecasts when making corn and soybean planting decisions.
Unless conditions turn very wet in the next few weeks, a large majority of corn in Minnesota could easily be planted before the end of April or early May this year. Corn planting delays can significantly impact final corn yields. In both 2018 and 2019 a majority of the corn was planted from mid-May until early June. According to the USDA Weekly Planting Progress Report, only 2 percent of the corn in Minnesota had been planted at the end of April in 2019, which was about 15 days behind normal. Minnesota’s corn yield declined from record yield levels in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to 182 bushels per acre in 2018 and only 174 bushels per acre in 2019. In 2023, only 5 percent of the corn was planted by May 1 and the final statewide corn yield of 185 bushels per acre.
Historically, early planting of corn usually leads to higher-than-normal state average corn yields in Minnesota and other Upper Midwest States. In several years when 50 percent or more of the corn acres in Minnesota have been planted in April or the first week of May, the State has usually set or been near a record corn yield. In 2015, corn planting in Minnesota was 83 percent completed by May 3, resulting in a record yield of 188 bushels per acre, which was followed with 89 percent of the corn planted by May 8 in 2016, again resulting in another record statewide corn yield of 193 bushels per acre. In 2020, when 76 percent of the corn was planted by May 3, the statewide corn yield was 192 bushels per acre, just short of the statewide record corn yield. One exception was in 2017, when most of Minnesota’s corn was planted in the first two weeks of May; however, very favorable growing conditions throughout the year in most areas resulted in a statewide record corn yield in 2017.
The record corn yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022 was also an exception to this trend, as Minnesota did not achieve 50 percent of the corn planted until around May 15. It should be noted that a much higher percent of the corn in Southern Minnesota had been planted by May 10, and the counties in the southern third of the State were largely responsible for the record statewide corn yield. Another exception was in 2021 when 71 percent of the statewide corn acreage was planted by May 3; however, the 2021 average corn yield in Minnesota was only 178 bushels per acre due to drought conditions in many portions of the State that reduced yields. In areas of the State that received adequate rainfall, the 2021 corn yields were above average to near record levels. In 2024, 54 percent of the corn in Minnesota was planted by May 12 and final statewide yield was 174 bushels per acre, with final yields greatly impacted by excessive June rainfall, as well as drought in some areas later in the growing season.
Once farmers have completed planting their corn acres, most farm operators will likely move directly into soybean planting. A majority of soybean producers in the Upper Midwest strive to plant soybeans in late April and early May; however, the ideal window to plant soybeans and still achieve optimum yields is much wider than with corn. The ideal soybean planting time frame in most areas extends from mid-April until mid-May. Similar to earlier corn planting dates, research does show that with favorable growing conditions there is a yield advantage to planting soybeans in late April or early May, as opposed to planting in late May.
With the addition of the recent rainfall, soil conditions have been described as “almost ideal” for Spring planting by farm operators and agronomists in many areas the Upper Midwest. Significant amounts of precipitation have slowed planting progress in some areas; however, most crop producers in the region should be able to begin full-scale corn planting once soil conditions are fit. The recent precipitation should also provide adequate topsoil moisture for good corn germination and emergence in most of this region; however, periodic moderate rainfalls during planting season can be beneficial for good seed germination and early season plant growth.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The USDA “Prospective Plantings Report” that was released on March 31st projected a 5 percent increase in 2025 U.S. corn acreage compared to a year ago, along with a 4 percent decrease in 2025 soybean acreage from a year earlier. The USDA planting intentions numbers came in slightly higher than the grain trade expected for corn and similar to trade estimates for soybeans. The USDA “Quarterly Grain Stocks Report” was also released on March 31st, which lists the estimated U.S. grain inventory as of March 1, 2025, for both “on-farm” and commercial grain storage. The USDA estimates for U.S. corn and soybean inventories came in near the average stocks estimates of the grain traders.
The USDA prospective planting acreage is based on survey data collected from about 72,000 crop producers in early March. Total U.S. crop acreage was listed at 224.2 million acres expected to be planted to corn, soybeans, and wheat in 2025, which up slightly from 223.8 million acres in 2024. The USDA estimates for intended 2025 U.S. corn and soybean acreage was viewed as somewhat “bearish” for “new crop” corn futures prices, meaning lower price expectations, and was viewed as mainly “neutral” for soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). After the USDA planting intentions report was released on March 31, December 2025 corn futures closed up slightly and November soybean futures were basically steady.
Typically, these late March USDA Reports are very critical to farm operators and grain traders due to their impact on grain market prices in the Spring and early Summer months. During these months, many farm operators try to sell remaining grain inventories from the previous growing season, as well as look for opportunities to forward price a portion of the anticipated crop for the current year. In a majority of years, corn and soybean prices usually reach their “peak-price” during the period from April until June, which is why these reports are so important.
Highlights from the March 31st USDA Planting Intentions Report:
Corn - The planting intentions report indicated that just over 95.3 million acres of corn are expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2025, which is an increase of 4.7 million acres or 5.1 percent from the 2024 corn acreage of 90.6 million acres. The 2025 U.S. corn acreage would also be above the 2023 corn acreage of 94.6 million acres. The highest corn acreage recorded in recent decades in the March USDA survey was 97.3 million acres in 2012. The current USDA corn acreage estimate was above the estimates of most grain traders. Based on the report, 2025 planted corn acreage is likely to increase in most of the major corn production States. Following is the estimated 2025 corn acreage and the expected increase from 2024: Iowa at 13.5 million acres (+4.7%); Illinois at 11.1million acres (+2.8%); Nebraska at 10.5 million acres (+5.5%); Minnesota at 8.6 million acres (+4.9%); Indiana at 5.4 million acres (+3.8%); Missouri at 3.8 million acres (+10.1%); Kansas at 6.4 million acres (+1.6%); South Dakota at 6.3 million acres (+6.8%); North Dakota at 4.2 million acres (+6.3%); and Wisconsin at 3.95 million acres (+5.3%). Ohio at 3.25 million acres was the only major corn producing State with a decrease in expected corn acres (-4.4%).
Soybeans - Based on the estimates in the March 31st Planting Intentions Report, U.S. soybean acreage in 2025 is projected at 83.5 million acres, which represents an decrease of 3.5 million acres from a year ago. The 2025 U.S. soybean acreage estimate compares to 87 million acres in 2024, 83.6 million acres in 2023, 87.4 million, acres in 2022, 87.2 million acres in 2021, and the record 90.2 million acres in 2017. The highest decrease in the estimated 2025 soybean acreage was in Iowa with an expected decrease of 450,000 acres, followed closely by Minnesota and North Dakota with decreases of 400,000 acres each, South Dakota with a decrease of 350,000 acres, and both Illinois and Nebraska with decreases of 300,000 acres. Smaller decreases in 2025 soybean acreage are likely to occur in Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Ohio was the only major producing State to show a slight increase in anticipated soybean acreage for 2025. Wheat - The intended total U.S. wheat acreage for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, which is down 2 percent from 46.1 million acres in 2024 and trails 49.6 million acres in 2023. Spring wheat acreage for 2025 was estimated at just over 10 million acres, which is down from 10.6 million acres a year ago. 2025 Spring wheat acres are expected to increase slightly in Minnesota, but decrease in North Dakota and stay the same in South Dakota.
Highlights from the March 31st USDA Grain Stocks Report:
Corn - The total U.S. corn stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at over 8.15 billion bushels, which is down 2 percent from a year earlier, and were slightly below the average grain trade estimate. The report indicated that farmers were carrying 11 percent or 579,000 less bushels of corn inventory in on-farm storage in 2025, as compared to a year earlier. Approximately 55 percent of the total U.S. corn stocks are being held in on-farm storage, which compares to 61 percent a year ago. Another positive in the USDA grain stocks report was that the implied corn usage from December, 2024 through February, 2025 was up about 2.6 percent compared to a year earlier. The somewhat favorable corn stocks numbers helped offset the potential negative market impacts that could have resulted from the expected increase in 2025 U.S. corn acreage. Farmers are hoping for a rally in the cash corn market in the coming weeks to liquidate some of the remaining 2024 corn inventory that is still in storage.
Soybeans - Soybean stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at just under 1.91 billion bushels, which is up 4 percent from a year ago, and is comparable to the total soybean stocks on March 1, 2023. About 46 percent of the total soybean stocks were held in on-farm storage. The total U.S. soybean usage from December, 2024 through February, 2025 was estimated at 1.19 billion bushels, which was nearly the same as a year earlier. The March 1 soybean stocks estimate came in very near the average estimate of grain traders. The higher levels of grain stocks somewhat offsets the expected decrease in 2025 soybean acreage. This fact, together with the tariff concerns, may limit any substantial increases in the CBOT soybean futures prices in the coming weeks.
Wheat - Total wheat stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at nearly 1.24 billion bushels, which is up 14 percent from March 1, 2024, and was the second year in a row of substantial increases wheat stocks. Approximately 25 percent or just over 307,000 bushels of the total wheat stocks were held in on-farm storage. The implied U.S. wheat usage in the past quarter was 336 million bushels, which was up about 1 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
Corn market prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the release of the USDA reports were very comparable to a year ago, but were considerably lower than 2023. Nearby CBOT corn futures closed at $4.57 per bushel on March 31, which compares to $4.42 per bushel in 2024 and $6.60 per bushel in 2023. New crop CBOT December corn futures on March 31 closed at $4.42 per bushel, compared to $4.76 per bushel in 2024 and $5.66 per bushel in 2023. Nearby CBOT soybean futures closed at $10.15 per bushel following the USDA report on March 31, compared to $11.91 per bushel in 2024 and $15.05 per bushel in 2023. New crop November futures closed at $10.19 per bushel on March 31, compared to $11.86 per bushel in 2024 and $13.20 per bushel in 2023.
The March 31st USDA report was based on producer surveys of planting intentions, as of March 1st; however, there is potential for these planting intentions to be adjusted slightly when final planting takes place. The improved margins and stronger crop insurance Spring price for corn has likely encouraged the potential for more corn acres in 2025; however, any significant delays in spring planting could encourage an increase in soybean acreage. In the past twenty-one years, final corn acreage has increased above the prospective March 1 planting estimate in twelve years and decreased in nine years.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

Government  Payments  Drive  Increase  In  2025  U.S.  Farm  Income   
Based on the data in the latest “2025 Farm Income Forecast” that was released by the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) in February, U.S. net farm income is expected to increase by $41 billion or 29.5 percent above 2024 levels, following two years of sharp decline in 2023 and 2024. The 2025 net farm income is now estimated at $180.1 billion, which would be the second highest net farm income since 2010, only trailing the 2022 net farm income level of $182 billion. The projected significant increase in 2025 net farm income was mainly driven by a projected large increase in government farm program payments, much of which will be one-time payments resulting from “American Relief Act (Continuing Resolution) that was passed by Congress late in 2024.
 
In the recent farm income report, USDA estimated total U.S. net cash income for 2024 at $193.7 billion, which is an increase of $34.5 billion or 21.7 percent from a year earlier; however, approximately $31 billion of that total is projected to be the result of the “ad-hoc” government payments. Net cash income includes cash receipts from all farm-related income, including government payments, minus cash expenses for the year. Net farm income is accrual-based, which includes adjustments in the cash income to reflect changes in inventories, depreciation, and rental income. Generally, net farm income is a truer measure of overall profitability in the farm sector.
 
Following are some highlights from the latest USDA 2025 Farm Income Report:

• Overall, 2025 cash receipts for all commodities on U.S. farms are estimated at $515 billion, which is a decline of $1.8 billion or 0.3 percent compared to 2024. 
• Total 2025 crop receipts are estimated at $239.6 billion, representing an expected decrease of $5.6 billion or 2.3 percent below 2024 levels. The decline in crop receipts is primarily due to an anticipated decrease in cash receipts from corn and soybeans in 2025, which are expected to decline by $2.7 billion for corn and by $3.1 billion for soybeans from year earlier. This decline is largely due to expected further declines in commodity prices in the coming year. Receipts from other crops in 2025 are expected to remain fairly steady, with only minor downward adjustments from 2024 levels.
• The projected total cash receipts from livestock production in 2025 are estimated at near $275.4 billion and are expected to increase by $3.8 billion or 1.4 percent from a year earlier. This is primarily due to expected increases in total receipts from the production of milk, hogs and broilers, compared to a year earlier. Receipts from cattle sales are expected to decline slightly in 2025, while receipts from egg production are expected to decrease by $0.6 billion this year; however, that decline could be even greater due to the impacts of avian influenza. The impact of potential tariffs could alter these livestock income projections.
• The significant level of government farm program payments in 2025 will have a major impact on net farm income and net cash income levels for the year. The estimated direct government payments to be paid to farmers in 2025 was listed at $42.3 billion, which compares to $9.3 billion in 2024. The 2025 government payment level would be the second highest total amount in the past 16 years, only being surpassed by just over $45.6 billion in the “Covid-year” of 2020. Approximately $31 billion or nearly three-fourths of the total 2025 payments will be for one-time “ad hoc” disaster assistance and economic assistance payments. The projected government payments also include traditional PLC and ARC-CO farm program payments and conservation payments, but do not include receipts from crop insurance indemnity payments. 
• Total farm expenses are estimated at $450.4 billion in 2025, which is a decrease $2.5 billion or 0.6 percent from 2024. This followed decreases of $9 billion in 2024 from 2023. The 2025 total farm expenses for feed, fertilizer, pesticides are projected to show the largest decreases. Interest expense is expected to decrease (by 0.5%) percent in 2025, which would be the first decline since 2020. Farm labor expense is expected to increase by 3.6 percent in 2025 to the record level of $53.1 billion. The expenses for seed, property taxes, and fees are also expected to increase in 2025.

 

• “Working Capital”, which measures the cash available after all farm expenses have been paid and all annual debt payments have been made is expected to increase by 3.9 percent by the end of 2025, largely due to the added government farm program payments. This followed a decline of 6.7 percent in farm working capital a year earlier. Deterioration of working capital was a major concern in many farm businesses during the tight farm profit years on 2014-2020. The “current ratio” and the “debt service coverage” (DSC) ratio also deteriorated in 2024. The “current ratio” measures the value of current assets that have not been sold to cover unpaid expenses and current-year debt obligations. The DSC ratio measures the ability of farm profits to cover required annual principal and interest payments on farm loans.
• The nominal value of all U.S. farm assets is expected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2025, which would increase the total value of U.S. farm assets to approximately $4.4 trillion. Over 83 percent, or $3.67 trillion of the total assets, come the value of farm real estate, which has increased dramatically in some portions of the U.S. in recent years. Farm real estate values in the U.S. are expected to increase by 4.3 percent in 2025, which follows increases of 5.5 percent in 2024 and nearly 8 percent in 2023.
• Even though total U.S. farm debt is relatively low, it should be noted that total farm debt in 2025 is expected to increase by 5.2 percent or about $16.6 billion, raising the total U.S. farm debt to $561.8 billion. Of that debt total, approximately two-thirds is real estate debt, with the balance from other farm loans.
• The overall farm sector debt-to-asset ratio is projected to remain relatively low at 12.93 percent at the end of 2025; however, this is a small increase from 12.84 percent in 2024 and 12.78 percent at the end of 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio at the end of 2025 is expected to decrease to 14.65 percent, from 14.73 percent at the end of 2024. Current debt-to-equity ratios are well below the record high ratio of 22.2 percent in 1985.

 
While the U.S. net farm income projections do show some dramatic improvement in 2025 as compared to the previous two years (2024 and 2023), there is a degree of caution due to high level of one-time “ad hoc” government farm payments. The very high net farm income levels from 2021 to 2023 were primarily driven by some of the highest crop prices in the past decade, along with very manageable farm production expenses and low interest rates. Total receipts from crop and livestock sales for 2025 on U.S. farms are projected to be very similar to 2024 and 2023 levels, with some variation within crop and livestock commodities. Total cash expenses on U.S. farms are projected to show a small decline in 2025; however, overall farm expenses remain at quite high levels. It should also be noted that there will be considerable disparity in the level of government payments among individual farmers.
 
If no other sources of farm income are accounted for, the margin between total U.S. crop and livestock receipts in 2025 and total farm expenses is estimated at $63.9 billion. The projected 2025 margin is less than half of the margin of $134.4 billion in 2022. Back in 2017, the margin between cash receipts and cash expenses was $58.5 billion and the final U.S. net farm income for the year was only $75.1 billion, which was the lowest in the past eight years (2017-2028). Government farm program payments are likely to help make up some of the farm income deficit in the margin between total cash receipts and farm expenses in 2025. Government payments are expected to account for 23 percent of the net farm income in 2025, which compares with 8-9 percent each year from 2022 to 2024, and would be the second highest percentage, trailing only the 48 percent of net farm income in 2020. 
 
There are some certainly some positive factors in the projected 2025 net farm income and profitability levels revealed in the latest USDA farm income report, due to improved profit levels in livestock production and the added government farm program payments. However, there are also “yellow caution flags” in the report due to the projected lower receipts from corn and soybeans and the continuation of relatively high farm production expenses. A big key to farm profitability going forward will be any impacts on crop and livestock prices and farm production expenses during 2025 resulting from possible tariffs between the U.S. with Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries. Of course, the potential for drought and other weather events are always a big “wild card” in final U.S. net farm income figures from year-to-year.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]