The Continuing Resolution legislation that was passed by Congress in late 2024  included $21 billion in disaster assistance for 2023 and 2024 agricultural crop losses from natural disasters, such as drought, hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, wildfires, excessive rainfall, etc. Recently USDA Ag Secretary, Brooke Rollins, announce some initial details for the disaster programs, which includes assistance for crop and livestock producers. Farmers and ranchers in many portions of the U.S. may qualify for the disaster payments for one or both years, including the Upper Midwest that had areas impacted by drought in 2023 and by excessive rainfall in 2024. The disaster payments will be implemented by local FSA offices during the coming months.
 
Based on comments from Secretary Rollins, details of the 2023 and 2024 disaster assistance program for crops will likely be available by late May. Sign-up for the program at local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices is set to begin by July 7, 2025.  Based on discussions when the legislation was passed, it is assumed that the payment formula will likely be similar to the Economic Relief Program (ERP) payments from 2020 and 2021. These payments would like be based on USDA Risk Management Agency crop insurance data, The RMA data for the 2024 crop year will not be finalized until early June. There may also be a separate disaster program enrollment period later this Summer for crop losses on crops that are not eligible for crop insurance.
 
Based on the previous calculation formula, disaster payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other major commodities would be calculated separately for the 2023 and 2024 crop years, and would likely be based on reported crop insurance yields. The payments would be additional payments over and above the crop insurance indemnity payments that were already paid. The payment formula will likely be based off of a set percentage of the crop insurance revenue guarantee for the year (APH yield x Spring price guarantee) minus the actual crop value (final yield x Fall harvest price),  minus crop insurance indemnity payments that were paid, and then factored by a set percentage. There will likely be separate payment limits for each year of the disaster program, as well as a separate payment limit for the ECAP payments.
 
Update on Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) Payments
Sign-up has begun for the Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments for crop producers started in late March and will continue until the sign-up deadline, which is August 15, 2025. Sign-up for the ECAP program is being administered by the USDA Farm Service Agency, and sign-up for the program can be done either online on the FSA website or in person at local FSA offices. The ECAP payments were implemented to offset low crop commodity prices in late 2023 and 2024, as well as poor profit margins for the producers of most major crops raised in the U.S. Corn, soybeans, wheat, and other farm program crops are eligible for the ECAP payments. The payments are based on the planted acres to a crop in 2024, and also include 50 percent of prevented planted acres last year. Complete ECAP details and sign-up details are available on the following website: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/emergency-commodity-assistance-program.
 
As of May 5, USDA had processed over 472,000 ECAP applications and paid out over $7.3 billion in ECAP payments. It is estimated that over 85 percent of the eligible acres have been enrolled in the ECAP program. Approximately $3 billion in ECAP payments has been paid for 2024 corn acres, and $2 billion for soybean acres, with about $933 million for wheat acres and $705 million for cotton acres. There was about $500 million paid for all other eligible crops, most which are grown regionally and have small national acreage totals. Producers in Iowa had received the most ECAP payments at $688 million, followed by Illinois at $630 million, Texas at $602 million, North Dakota at $554 million, Kansas at $516 million, Minnesota at $508 million, and Nebraska at $495 million. The initial ECAP payment that is being distributed is 85 percent of the total calculated ECAP payment, so there is a possibility that eligible producers may receive another smaller ECAP payment later this year.
Potential for 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Crop producers in some areas of the Midwest are wondering about the potential for 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payments later this year. Many farmers in the region were enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for the 2024 crop year, rather than the “price-only” Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. To earn a PLC payment for 2024 for a given crop, the final MYA price needs to drop below the 2024 crop reference price. 2024 ARC-CO payments are based on the final county revenue (2024 county ave. yield x the final MYA price), compared to the 2024 benchmark (BM) revenue (2024 county BM yield x BM price x .86). Any 2024 PLC or ARC-CO payments will be paid after October 1, 2025.
 
The marketing year to determine the 2024 market year average (MYA) prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025. The marketing year to calculate MYA prices for wheat and other small grain crops is from June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025. The 12-month national average MYA price for a given crop is based on the monthly average market price received by farm operators across the United States, which is then “weighted” at the end of the year, based on the volume of bushels sold in each month. The USDA MYA price estimates can be tracked on a monthly basis in the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. The next WASDE report will be released on June 12, 2025.
 
Following is an update on the potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
This summary is based on the national average price estimates in the May 12 WASDE report.
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the May WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments, so 2024 PLC payments are not likely. The estimated MYA price is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price, which will likely initiate 2024 ARC-CO payments in many counties with reduced crop yields in 2024.  At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, , and ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield, which will likely include many southern Minnesota counties.
 
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the May WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $9.95 per bushel. This is $.69 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 soybean PLC payments, so 2024 PLC payments are not likely. The estimated MYA price is $1.17 below the 2024 benchmark price, which will likely initiate 2024 ARC-CO payments in many counties with reduced crop yields in 2024.  At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, , and ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county soybean yield that is about 2-3 bushels below the county benchmark yield, which will likely include many counties in Minnesota.
 
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the May WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.50 per bushel. This is at the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments and is $.71 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, a small 2024 PLC payment is still possible, and ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield.
 
For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the ARC-PLC web site at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.  Final county yields for 2024 will be available by early June and will be based on RMA crop insurance data. Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

Spring fieldwork got off to a good start in some portions of the Upper Midwest in mid-late April; however, conditions in other areas were too wet to see the initiation of Spring planting. Frequent rainfall events and above normal precipitation kept most farmers out of the field during April in the eastern half of Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, and areas of northeast Iowa, as well as some portions of the eastern Corn Belt. On the flip side, planting progress has been ahead of normal in much of Iowa, Nebraska, and the western half of Minnesota, as well as in North and South Dakota. The good news is that the weather forecast in the Upper Midwest for the week of May 4-10 looks very favorable for full-scale Spring planting and fieldwork to resume in many areas.

In the wettest areas of the Upper Midwest, it may take several drier days in order to return to full-scale fieldwork, and the resulting soil conditions may be less conducive for good planting conditions.  In other portions of the region, such as western Minnesota and Iowa, as well as adjoining areas of South Dakota, 70-80 percent of the corn and 30-50 percent of the soybeans have been planted. Normally by early May, Midwest farmers have made some significant planting progress on Spring fieldwork. Some of the corn and soybeans in the Upper Midwest that were planted in mid-April are now starting to emerge. The expected warm temperatures during early May should aid good seed germination and early plant growth for newly planted corn and soybeans.

The USDA Weekly Planting Progress Report released on April 28 indicated that 25 percent of the intended U.S. corn acreage for 2025 was planted by that date. This compares to 24 percent planted a year ago, and the 5-year average of 22 percent of the corn planted by that date. As of April 28, Minnesota had 26 percent of the corn planted, compared to a 5-year average of 21 percent, while Iowa had 34 percent planted, compared to a 5-year average of 28 percent planted.  The planting progress in the west half of both States far exceeded corn planting in the eastern portions of the two States.

Other States that were ahead of the 5-year average in corn planting progress on April 28 included Missouri at 47 percent, South Dakota at 23 percent, and North Dakota at 7 percent. Nebraska at 21 percent and Ohio at 8 percent were both near the 5-year average for corn planting progress on April 28. States that were behind normal corn planting progress on April 28 included Illinois at 16 percent, compared to a 5-year average of 26 percent, as well as Indiana at 10 percent planted, and Wisconsin at only 4 percent of the corn planted.

As of April 28, 18 percent of the U.S. soybeans had been planted, compared to the 5-year average of 12 percent planted by that date. Iowa was at 25 percent of the soybeans planted by April 28, compared to a 5-year average of 13 percent planted by that date. Minnesota had 13 percent planted, compared to an average of 8 percent of the soybeans planted by April 28. Other States that exceeded the 5-year soybean planting progress on April 28 included Illinois at 22 percent planted, Missouri at 25 percent, Nebraska at 13 percent, Ohio at 10 percent, and South Dakota at 6 percent. Indiana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin were all very near their normal soybean planting progress on April 28.

Soil temperatures at the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center at Waseca, Minnesota were slightly above normal in mid-late April, before dropping somewhat in late April; however, they have now increased significantly in early May. The average soil temperature at the 2-4 inch level during the last week of April at the Waseca location was slightly above 50 degrees Fahrenheit (F), which is considered minimally acceptable corn and soybean germination. Research has shown that 50 percent corn emergence will occur in 20 days at an average soil temperature of 50 degrees F, which is reduced to only 10 days at an average temperature of 60 degrees F. This may help explain why some of the corn that was planted 2-3 weeks ago has been quite slow to emerge. The good news is that temperatures are predicted to be much warmer in the next couple of weeks.

The U of M Research Center at Waseca recorded 3.78 inches of precipitation during April, which was 0.48 inches above normal; however, some portions of southeast and eastern south central Minnesota recoded 5 to 8 inched of rainfall during April. These are the same areas that had seen very little planting progress by early May. The total precipitation for the first four months of 2025 at the Waseca site was 8.49 inches, which is 0.47 inches above normal. The good news in the Spring of 2025 is that most rainfall events have not been extreme and has left the soil conditions very favorable for early season plant growth, once the fields dry out.

Another piece of good news for farm operators in many portions of the Upper Midwest is that recent rainfall events have helped ease the drought concern for the early portions on the 2025 growing season. Many areas of the primary corn and soybean production areas in the Upper Midwest were listed as “abnormally dry” to “severe drought” in the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor in early April. Frequent rainfall events and above normal precipitation during April have either eliminated or greatly shrunk to drought concern area in much of the Upper Midwest; however, some drought concern remains in the central and northern Plains States and the adjoining areas of western Minnesota. There should now be adequate soil moisture for good corn and soybean germination and early season plant growth in most areas of the Upper Midwest. In many areas, the amount of stored soil moisture in the top 5 feet of soil has now been restored to much improved levels, compared to the soil moisture conditions that existed after harvest in 2024 and in early Spring this year.

Even though planting dates have been delayed in many areas of the Upper Midwest, most University and private agronomists are encouraging producers to be patient with initiating field work, and to wait until soil conditions are fit for good corn planting and seed germination. Given the high cost per acre of seed corn, and the limited availability of some of the best yielding corn hybrids in 2025, most growers do not want to take the risk of planting corn into poor soil conditions. Normally, by mid-May, the soil temperatures warm up quite rapidly, so concern over cool soil temperatures becomes less of an issue. It is expected that full-scale corn and soybean planting will resume in all areas as soon as the field conditions dry out and are fit for planting.

Timely corn planting in the Upper Midwest is usually one of the key factors to achieving optimum corn yields in a given year. According to research at land-grant universities and by private seed companies, the “ideal time window” to plant corn in Upper Midwest in order to achieve optimum yields, if soil conditions are fit for planting, is typically from about April 15 to May 10. Based on long-term research, the reduction in optimum corn yield potential with planting dates from May 10-15 in many areas of the region is usually very minimal and is quite dependent on the growing season weather that follows. Even corn planted from May 15-25 has a good chance of producing 90-95 percent of optimum yield potential, assuming that there are favorable growing conditions following planting. The ideal window to plant soybeans in the Upper Midwest and to still achieve optimum yields starts in late April and extends until mid-May or even beyond in some years, so there is still ample time to get the 2025 soybean crop planted.

Most farm operators in the Upper Midwest will likely not switch intended 2025 corn acres to soybeans unless the corn planting dates get extended into late May or beyond. By April, producers have typically finalized decisions for seed, fertilizer, and other crop inputs for the growing season, so they are likely to continue with their planned crop rotations as long as possible. In addition, there is not currently a big advantage in the projected market price at harvest this year for either corn or soybeans. New crop corn and soybean prices for the Fall of 2025 have remained fairly low in recent months due to expected steady demand and export volume, along with USDA projecting increases in corn and soybean inventories by the end of 2025 and concern over potential tariffs.

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]