There is a wide variation in the number of crop producers across the United States that had all of their 2026 fertilizer needs already booked and paid for prior to the initiation of the current U.S. conflict in Iran. Producers that did not have all of their likely fertilizer needs in place for the 2026 crop year prior to March may be experiencing some challenges in securing adequate fertilizer supplies for crop production this year. Farmers that needed to purchase all or part of their fertilizer needs this Spring have also faced much higher fertilizer costs. This further expands the financial challenges for farmers that were already facing very tight or negative breakeven crop production margins for the 2026 growing season.
 
The countries in the Persian Gulf region are major producers of many types of fertilizer that are used around the World for crop production. The region is a major producer of nitrogen fertilizer, which is very important for the production of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops. Approximately 49 percent of the urea and 30 percent of the anhydrous ammonia in the World, which are both important nitrogen fertilizer sources, are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz each year. In addition, about 44 percent of the sulfur and 16 percent of the phosphate fertilizer is shipped through the Strait annually. Since early March, very little fertilizer has been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Any impacts on these fertilizer resources not only affects the U.S, but impacts nearly every major agricultural country in the World.
 
The United States relies both on fertilizer produced domestically, as well as imports from other countries, to meet the fertilizer needs for crop production in the U.S. The impact of outside conflicts, such as the war in Iran, varies by the fertilizer nutrient. The U.S. imports approximately 13 percent of the nitrogen and 16 percent of the phosphate that is used on annual basis, which could be subject to global trade disruptions caused by the current war. The U.S. also imports about 95 percent of the potash fertilizer used in crop production; however, a large majority of the potash is imported from Canada. In fact, over 50 percent of all fertilizer imports into the U.S. comes from Canada, compared to less than 10 percent of imports from the Persian Gulf region. Other major crop production regions in the World, such as South America, Europe, and some Asian countries are much more reliant on the Persian Gulf fertilizer exports than the U.S.
 
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) conducted a “Fertilizer Availability Survey” in early April and received responses from over 5,700 farmers across the U.S. Based on the survey, 67 percent of farmers in the Midwest States had already secured their fertilizer needs for the 2026 crop year; however, that still left one-third of producers with the need to purchase some or all of their fertilizer for the coming growing season. Farmers in the Midwest region, which is the primary corn and soybean production area in the U.S., tend to do more pre-booking of fertilizer needs prior to planting season, compared to other areas of the country. The early-April rates for meeting 2026 needs were much lower in other areas of the U.S., with only 19 percent of the fertilizer purchased in Southern States, 30 percent purchased in Western States, and 31 percent purchased in Northeast States. This difference reflects differences in the crop mix and management practices in the various regions of the country.
 
The AFBF survey results also revealed a wide difference by farm size in the percentage of producers that still needed to secure their fertilizer needs for 2026, following the impacts from the war in Iran. In all regions of the U.S., the larger farms (2,500 acres or more) had a much higher percentage of this year’s fertilizer needs pre-booked by early March, compared to the small sized farm operations (under 500 acres). In the primary corn and soybean production area of the Midwest, over three-fourths of the large farms (2,500 acres and more) and medium size farms (500 to 2,499 acres) had their 2026 fertilizer needs pretty well in place. This compared to less than half of the small farms (less than 500 acres) with their 2026 fertilizer needs secured. In the other regions of the U.S., 25 percent or less of the small farms had their fertilizer needs in place for the current growing season at the time the survey was conducted.
 
Update on Fertilizer Prices
The World fertilizer industry is controlled by a few very large, multi-national fertilizer companies, which tend to set prices for most fertilizer nutrients on a worldwide basis. This means that even though the U.S. may not import large quantities of certain fertilizer nutrients from Persian Gulf region, the price increases caused by the shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will likely still impact all fertilizer prices in the U.S. For example, if countries that rely heavily on Persian Gulf fertilizer sources are forced to go elsewhere to meet their needs, it will likely increase nutrient costs in those countries. In addition, if fertilizer supplies get tight, some countries may restrict exports or put extra export fees or tariffs on fertilizer that is exported to the U.S.
 
The cost of all types of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate increased significantly following the initiation of the war in Iran and have stayed quite high into mid-May. The price of Urea, a major nitrogen fertilizer source in the U.S., increased by about 43 percent, or over $250 per ton, from late February until mid-May. The average price per ton of anhydrous ammonia and other common nitrogen fertilizer products also increased by over $60 per ton or about 31 percent from late February until mid-May. The cost of most forms of phosphate fertilizer has increased by around 8 percent since the initiation of the conflict in Iran; however, the average cost of phosphate fertilizer in mid-May of 2026 has increased by over 15 percent from cost levels a year earlier. Potash is the only major crop fertilizer nutrient that has not had much of price impact since the war in Iran began.
 
Even before the initiation of the war in Iran, the average 2026 fertilizer cost for corn production in the Midwest was estimated to be $20 to $30 per acre higher than fertilizer costs in either 2024 or 2025. Fertilizer cost represented 15-20 percent of the total cost of production for raising corn in the U.S. in every year from 2010 to 2025, except in 2022. That year, the rate was 25 percent of corn production costs, following the higher fertilizer costs that resulted from the outbreak of Russian War in Ukraine. Fertilizer analysts are now estimating that fertilizer expense will average 21 percent of the 2026 corn production cost; however, there will likely be a wide variation among producers, depending on when they made their fertilizer purchases for the current crop year. The combination of much higher fertilizer and fuel costs, together with increases in other crop input expenses, has resulted in most crop producers showing negative estimated net returns over costs for the 2026 crop year, based on average crop yields and current market price projections.
 
Final thoughts on the changes in Fertilizer Supplies and Prices
It appears that approximately three-fourths of farmers in the Midwest had already locked-in their fertilizer needs and costs for the 2026 growing season by early April. For those producers, the recent rapid increase in fertilizer costs may have a minimal impact on their fertilizer expense for the current year. However, fertilizer costs could be much higher for farmers that needed to purchase all or part of their fertilizer needs since the war in Iran was initiated in March this year. Some farmers may also choose to lower their 2026 fertilizer application rates due to fertilizer availability and cost. Farmers and grain marketing analysts will be watching closely to see if the current fertilizer situation causes any adjustments in the final 2026 planted corn and soybean acres later this year.
 
If the war with Iran continues for several months, or if the conflict expands to include other countries, the fertilizer supply and cost issue could become even worse for the 2027 crop year in the U.S., as well as in many other countries. Many Midwest farmers will start lining up their fertilizer needs and pre-paying fertilizer expenses for the 2027 crop year by early Fall this year. For many producers, fertilizer prices will be higher for the 2027 crop year than they are in the current year. There are currently few indications thar farmers will receive higher market prices for their 2026 crops later this year, or in 2027, to help offset the higher fertilizer prices.
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on May 12 was the first official USDA projected corn and soybean production levels, usage, and ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year. The latest WASDE Report also updated supply and demand estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026 for corn and soybeans, and on May 31, 2026 for wheat and other small grain crops. From a grain marketing standpoint, the initial reaction to the WASDE report was positive for corn, soybeans, and wheat, before markets declined by the end of the week.
Following are some highlights of the latest USDA WASDE Report:
CORN
Based on the May 12 USDA WASDE Report, the projected corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year are estimated at 2.14 billion bushels, which is similar to the April Report, but is approximately 35 percent above the estimated carryout levels in May a year ago. The anticipated 2025-26 corn ending stocks represents a substantial increase from the carryout levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn usage for 2025-2026 at just under 16.5 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, exports, etc., which is an increase of 8.8 percent or 1.3 billion bushels compared to the 2024-25 usage level. The higher estimated corn usage was primarily due to increases in the estimated amount of corn used for feed and ethanol production in 2025-26, as well as significant increase in corn export levels, compared to a year earlier. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in 2024-25 and 11.8 percent in 2023-24
The May WASDE Report also offered an initial USDA estimate for corn carryover levels in the 2026-27 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2027. The corn ending stocks were estimated at just under 1.98 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of about 185 million bushels compared to the end of the 2023-24 marketing year. The projected 2026-27 the carryout level was very near the average grain-trade estimates. The 2026-27 stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease to 12.1 percent, compared to a year earlier. USDA is estimating the total corn supply for 2026-27 at 18.16 billion bushels, with the total corn usage for the year at just over 16.2 billion bushels. USDA is forecasting a slight decrease in corn usage for livestock feed and lower U.S. corn export levels, along with stable corn usage for ethanol production in 2026-27.
USDA is estimating total U.S. corn production in 2026 at nearly 16 billion bushels, which would be down 6 percent from the record 2025 production of just over 17 billion bushels. The USDA Report expects an estimated 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted in the U.S. in 2026, which compares to 98.8 million acres in 2025 and 90.9 million acres in 2024. Some analysts feel that the final 2026 corn acreage may be reduced slightly, due to the fertilizer supply and price. USDA is projecting the average U.S. corn yield at 183 bushels per acre in 2026, which would be below the record average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, but above the 2024 average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. Corn planting progress in 2026 has been running ahead of normal in many areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt, but has been slightly behind normal in portions of the northern Corn Belt.
In the latest WASDE report, USDA is projecting the 2026-27 average U.S “on-farm” corn price at $4.40 per bushel. The 2026-27 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027. As of May 12, USDA is estimating the U.S. average corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which is the same as the April estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year ends on August 31, 2026. The current projected corn price estimates compare to recent final national average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22.
SOYBEANS
Based on the May 12 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is a decline of 10 million bushels from the April estimate and was close to the average grain trade estimates. The projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks are similar to recent soybean carryover levels of 325 million bushels in 2024-25 and 342 million bushels in 2023-24; however, it would be significantly higher than the carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23 and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. The projected ending stocks are still well below 525 million bushels in 2019-20 and 909 million bushels in 2018-19.
Total soybean usage for 2025-26 is estimated to be just over 4.27 billion bushels, which is down from the total usage of 4.42 billion bushels in 2024-25. Soybean export levels for 2025-26 are projected to decrease by 352 million bushels compared to a year earlier, which was somewhat offset by a projected increase185 million bushels in soybeans used for processing, compared to crush levels a year earlier. The actual soybean usage in the next couple years will likely depend on actual export volume to China and other countries, as well as the soybean crush levels that result from the new or expanded soybean processing plants that have come on board recently.
The latest WASDE Report projects soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels at the end of the 2026-27 marketing year that ends on August 31, 2027, which would be a decline of 30 million bushels from 2025-26 levels. USDA is estimating the U.S. soybean supply to increase by 173 million bushels in 2026-27; while the total soybean usage is expected to increase by 218 million bushels compared to usage for 2025-26 levels The increased usage is due to increases in both soybean crush and export levels. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2026-27 is estimated at 6.9 percent, which compares to 8 percent in 2025-26 and 7.4 percent in 2024-25.
Total U.S. soybean production in 2026 is estimated at 4.435 billion bushels, which would be an increase from the estimated production of 4.26 billion bushels in 2025, and is similar to 4.37 billion bushels in 2024. Planted soybean acres for 2026 are projected at 83.7 million acres, which is up from 80.4 million acres in 2025, but lower than 86.2 million acres in 2024. USDA is estimating a national average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2026, which would match the record U.S. soybean yield in 2025. Other recent U.S. average soybean yields were 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023 and 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022.
USDA is estimating the U.S “on-farm” soybean average price at $11.40 per bushel for the 2026-27 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2027. The preliminary price estimate for the 2026-27 marketing year would represent an increase of $1.00 per bushel from the current 2025-26 average price estimate of $10.40 per bushel. The projected 2026-27 and 2025-26 soybean prices compare to final average soybean prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The final average soybean price for 2026-27 will likely be highly dependent on the 2026 soybean production in the U.S. and South America, as well as the actual soybean crush and export levels.
WHEAT
The May 12 WASDE Report projected U.S. wheat ending stocks to decrease by 173 million bushels to 762 million bushels by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year on May 31, 2027. This compares to estimated ending stocks of 935 million bushels for 2025-26 and 855 million bushels in 2024-25. Total U.S. wheat usage for 2026-27 is estimated at just over 1.87 billion bushels, which is a decrease of 156 million bushels from projected usage levels for 2025-26, due to likely declines in both feed usage and export levels. U.S. wheat acreage in 2026 is projected at 43.8 million acres, which is down from 45.3 million acres in 2025 and 46.3 million acres in 2024. Total U.S. wheat production in 2026 is expected to decrease by 21 percent from a year earlier to 1.56 billion bushels. The 2026 U.S, average wheat yield is estimated at 47.5 bushels per acre. USDA is projecting the average “on-farm” wheat price at $6.50 per bushel for 2026-27 and $5.00 per bushel for 2025-26, which compares to other recent final national average prices of $5.52 in 2024-25, $8.83 in 2022-23, and $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22.
Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

In the past 2-3 years, there have been very few good opportunities for farmers to market corn and soybeans at favorable price levels. This has resulted in a large amount of grain being sold below breakeven levels, as well as a significant amount of the 2025 corn crop being still in storage on farms across the Midwest. This has also left farmers with some very difficult grain marketing decisions for both the grain that is still in storage, as well as for the 2026 crop that is currently being planted. In recent weeks, there has been a bit more optimism, with some improvement in corn and soybean prices.
Nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed at $12.03 per bushel on May 1, which was an increase of 25 cents for the week. The nearby CBOT futures price has risen by over a $1.50 per bushel since the beginning of 2026; however there has been a lot of volatility in day-to-day soybean market closing prices. The 2026 CBOT soybean futures price surpassed the early May CBOT prices of $10.50 per bushel in 2025 and $11.63 per bushel in 2024; however, the 2026 closing price is still well below the early May closing prices of $14.99 per bushel in 2023, $16.65 per bushel in 2022, and $14.03 per bushel in 2021.
Nearby CBOT corn futures closed at $4.80 per bushel on May 1, which was highest closing price for the July futures contract in the past 13 months. The nearby corn futures price has risen by about $.40 per bushel since the beginning of 2026, and is about $.50 above the nearby CBOT futures price during harvest season in the Fall of 2025. Similar to soybeans, the 2026 May 1 CBOT corn futures price surpassed the early May CBOT prices of $4.72 per bushel in 2025 and $4.46 per bushel in 2024. The current 2026 corn futures price is still well below the early May closing prices of $5.85 per bushel in 2023, $7.84 per bushel in 2022, and $5.77 per bushel in 2021.
From 2021 until early 2023, nearby futures prices on the CBOT for both corn and soybeans were at the highest sustained levels since a similar period a decade earlier from 2011 to 2013. This allowed for some excellent profit margins for Midwest corn and soybean producers during that period, especially for farmers that had average or above average crop yields in those years. The nearby CBOT corn futures price exceeded $5.00 per bushel from early 2021 until late June of 2023, and remained above $6.00 per bushel from early 2022 until late April of 2023. Prior to 2021, the nearby corn futures price had not been above $5.00 per bushel since late Summer of 2013. In fact, from 2015 through 2020, nearby corn futures were below $4.00 per bushel for a high percentage of the time, which provided for very challenging profit years for farmers.
Similar to corn, the nearby CBOT soybean futures price exceeded $13.00 per bushel from early in 2021 until late in 2023, except for a few months in the Fall of 2021. Nearby soybean futures prices exceeded $14.00 per bushel most of the time in 2022, trading above $16.00 per bushel for a few months in the Spring and early Summer that year. Prior to late 2020, the nearby soybean futures price had not exceeded $12.00 per bushel since late Summer of 2014. From 2011 through 2013, nearby soybean futures exceeded $13.00 per bushel for much of that period. The all-time high soybean futures price of $17.68 per bushel occurred in September during the drought year of 2012. On the other hand, soybean futures traded near or below $9.00 per bushel much of the time during 2018 and 2019, due to the effects of the U.S. trade war with China.
The downturn in the CBOT prices during 2024 and 2025 for both corn and soybeans was driven by a combination of increasing U.S. and World grain stocks and struggling export demand for both commodities, along favorable U.S. corn and soybean production in 2025. Recent improvement in grain prices has been driven by strong domestic demand and solid export sales in recent months, along with more manageable worldwide grain supplies. However, the large projected levels of 2025 corn and soybean ending stocks in the U.S. has tempered some of the enhancement in cash grain markets. The current war in Iran has also created some uncertainty in the grain markets. The markets are now focused on 2026 planting progress and growing season crop conditions in the U.S.
The “basis” level for local corn and soybean cash price bids in most areas of the Upper Midwest became wider in 2024 and 2025, and basis levels have remained quite wide during the first few months of 2026. The “basis” is the difference between the local cash price being offered in a given month and the closet CBOT futures price. The cash corn basis level in Southern Minnesota in recent months has been $.40 to $.50 per bushel under nearby CBOT prices at most locations, with slightly better basis levels at some ethanol plants and feed mills, The soybean basis level in the region at soybean processing plants has been $.30 to $.40 per bushel below the CBOT nearby futures price, while basis levels at local grain elevators has generally been $.50-$.70 under CBOT futures prices. Current cash basis levels are slightly wider than at this time a year ago. Many processing plants and local elevators in the Corn Belt offered cash prices with a positive basis at certain times during 2022 and 2023.
 
Current Grain Marketing Opportunities
The current rise in grain prices has certainly been welcome news to farmers who still had some 2025 corn and soybeans stored in grain bins for future sales. The cash soybean price at Southern Minnesota processing plants topped $11.70 per bushel on May 1, which is one of the highest cash prices in the past two years. Many farmers had already sold all of their 2025 soybean crop after harvest or in early 2026 for cash flow purposes when soybean prices were about $1.50 per bushel lower than current levels. Cash corn prices are $4.15 to $4.25 per bushel at many locations in southern Minnesota; however, cash corn prices did not top $4.00 per bushel until recent weeks. Most producers likely had a breakeven level above $4.50 per bushel for the 2025 corn crop.
Once farm operators reach planting season, they pay close attention to “new crop” corn and soybean prices for harvest season and beyond at local grain elevators and processing plants. Cash bids for Fall delivery of the 2026 corn crop at local grain elevators and ethanol plants in Southern Minnesota on May 1 ranged from $4.25 to $4.50 per bushel at many locations, which is slightly higher than a year ago and similar to early May “new crop” corn bids in 2024. Cash bids for 2026 “new crop” soybeans at grain elevators in Southern Minnesota are near $10.75 to $11.00 per bushel, with forward prices just above $11.25 per bushel at processing plants. The current cash soybean harvest bids for 2026 are nearly $1.50 per bushel higher than a year ago, and are similar to early May soybean harvest bids in 2024.
Harvest price bids for corn are based on the CBOT 2026 December futures price, while soybean harvest bids are based on the November futures price. The corn basis level for the Fall of 2026 remains quite wide at about $.50 to $.60 per bushel at local ethanol plants and grain elevators in Southern Minnesota. The soybean basis for the Fall of 2026 has been near $.50 per bushel under at soybean processing plants and $.80 to $.90 per bushel below the CBOT November futures price at grain elevators. The basis levels at local grain elevators and processing plants are important to farm operators for determining pre-harvest grain market strategies in a given year.
In the past twenty years (2006-2025), the CBOT December corn futures price has increased at least $.20 per bushel above the Spring crop insurance price (average price in February) in 18 of 20 years, and has increased by at least $.30 per bushel in 16 years, and by at least $.40 per bushel in 12 years. The median increase in the December price has been $.59 per bushel. The 2026 Spring crop insurance price for corn was $4.61 per bushel, and CBOT December closing price on May 1 was $4.99 per bushel, or $.38 per bushel above the Spring price.
Grain marketing decisions for 2026 will likely be very difficult for most producers, with current cash prices below breakeven levels. For many Midwest crop producers, the breakeven levels to cover direct and overhead expenses on cash rented land in 2026 will likely be near or exceed $5.00 per bushel for corn, and be over $11.00 per bushel for soybeans. In many years, the Spring and early Summer months usually offer some of the best opportunities to forward price “new crop” corn and soybeans. Unless there is a drought or other crop issues in the U.S. in 2026, corn and soybean prices are likely to follow this more typical seasonal price pattern as we progress toward harvest this year. Further export issues with tariffs or a worsening of the war in Iran could put further pressure on grain prices; however, passage of year-round E-15 ethanol usage could be a boost for markets.