The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on June 12 did not change estimated 2024 corn or soybean production levels and did not make any adjustments in the projected 2024-25 demand levels for either corn or soybeans. The only change in the June WASDE report from the May monthly report was that 2023-24 soybean crush estimates were lowered by 10 million bushels and 2023-24 soybean carryout level was also increased by 10 million bushels. These were no adjustments to the 2022-23 corn usage or carryout levels.
Most grain marketing analysts viewed the June WASDE Report as generally “neutral” for both the corn and soybean market; however, there is some uncertainty with both crops related to estimated 2024 production levels. The supply, production, ending stocks, and price projections in the WASDE Report are for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 marketing years. The USDA marketing year for corn and soybeans for the 2023-24 began on September 1, 2023, and ends on August 31, 2024, and the 2024-25 marketing year ends begins on September 1, 2024, and ends on August 31, 2025. The 2023-24 marketing year USDA marketing year for wheat ended on May 31, 2024, and the 2024-25 marketing year extends from June 1, 2024, to May 31, 2025.
Following are some highlights of the June 12th USDA WASDE Report:
CORN
USDA is projecting 2023-24 corn ending stocks at 2.022 billion bushels, which is the same as the May estimate. The 2023-24 corn ending stocks estimate compares to 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22, 1.24 billion bushels in 2020-21, and 1.92 billion bushels in 2019-20. The projected corn supply for the balance of the 2023-24 marketing year remains quite large in many areas, which is could limit localized support for “old crop” corn prices this Summer. Farmers with some of last year’s corn still in storage will want to watch for rallies in local cash corn bids in the coming weeks to take advantage of the cash corn prices, as well as any short-term improvements in local corn basis levels.   
USDA kept the projected total estimated 2024 U.S. corn production at 14.86 billion bushels, which was the same as the May WASDE Report. The 2024 estimate compares to the record U.S. corn production level of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023 and other recent production levels of 13.73 billion bushels in 2022, 15.11 billion bushels in 2021, and 14.18 billion bushels in 2020. The projected average U.S. corn yield for 2024 in the June Report is 181 bushels per acre, which is the same as the May estimate. The 2024 yield projection compares to other recent national average corn yields of 177.3 bushels per acre, which was a record yield, 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, and 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019.    
The WASDE Report projects 2024 planted corn acres in the U.S at 90 million acres and harvested acres at 82.1 million acres. This compares to harvested acres of 86.5 million acres in 2023, 78.7 million acres in 2022, and 85.4 million acres in 2021. USDA is estimating total corn usage for the 2024-25 marketing year at just over 14.8 billion bushels, which is 100 million bushels above the projected corn usage levels for the 2023-24 marketing year, and compares to total corn usage of 13.7 billion bushels in 2022-23. Based on the projected U.S. corn acreage in 2024, as well as another record national average corn yield in 2024 and only a modest increase in estimated corn usage, USDA is projecting a slight increase in the corn ending stocks by the end of the 2024-25 marketing year on August 31, 2025, compared to the current marketing year. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.102 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 80 million bushels from the estimated 2023-24 corn carryout projections.  The projected large corn ending stocks may limit significant rallies in “new crop” corn prices, unless some weather issues develop with the 2024 corn crop.
The June 12 WASDE report estimated the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2023-24 marketing year at $4.65 per bushel, which was the same as the May report. USDA also left the 2024-25 corn price estimate unchanged from the May estimate at $4.40 per bushel. The USDA corn price projections for 2023-24 and 2024-25 marketing years are considerably lower than the final national average corn prices of $5.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current corn price projections are more comparable to the final U.S. average corn price of $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, but are still well above the final average prices of $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20 and $3.61 per bushel in 2018-19. Local cash prices in recent weeks across Southern Minnesota for 2023 corn that is still in storage have been near $4.40 to $4.50 per bushel at many locations. “New crop” corn bids for Fall delivery in 2024 slightly lower than current cash bids at most grain elevators and ethanol plants.
SOYBEANS
Based on the June 12 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2023-24 were adjusted 350 million bushels, which was an increase of 10 million bushels from the May report due to the decrease in the soybean crush levels for 2023-24. The estimated 2023-24 soybean ending stocks compare to carryover levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, 256 million bushels in 2020-21, and 525 million bushels in 2019-20. The preliminary soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 455 million bushels, which is an increase of 30 percent or 105 million bushels from the anticipated 2023-24 carryout levels. USDA did project total soybean usage for 2024-25 at 4.36 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 256 million bushels compared to estimated final 2023-24 soybean usage levels.
USDA is estimating the 2024 planted soybean acres at 86.5 million acres and the projected U.S. average soybean yield at 52 bushels per acre, which compare 83.6 million planted acres and a final national average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023. Some crop experts feel that U.S. soybean acreage could be adjusted in the June 30 USDA Crop Acreage Report, due to the late and prevented planting in some areas of the Northern Corn Belt. Marketing analysts will also be keeping a close eye on the national average soybean yield, which could be highly variable in future months, depending on growing season weather patterns across U.S. soybean production areas.
The June 12 WASDE Report listed the projected average U.S “on-farm” soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing at $11.20 per bushel, which is the same as the May estimate. USDA is anticipating the average soybean price for the 2023-24 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2024, at $12.55 per bushel. The latest USDA soybean price projection for 2024-25 would be well below the projected final 2023-24 national average price and would also trail the final average prices of $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. However, the projected 2024-25 soybean price would still be above other recent average soybean prices of $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21 and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. There has not been much movement in cash soybean prices across Southern Minnesota in recent weeks, with prices trading near $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel at processing plants. Basis levels have remained fairly tight due to limited local supplies of soybeans in some areas. Contract prices for Fall delivery of the 2024 soybean crop in Southern Minnesota have been near $10.50 to $11.00 per bushel.
WHEAT
USDA made no changes in the final 2023-24 wheat demand or carryout numbers in the latest WASDE report. The wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 are projected at 688 million bushels and the 2023-24 farm level price is estimated at $7.00 per bushel. USDA is projecting total 2024 wheat acres at 47.5 million acres and a 2024 U.S. average wheat yield of 49.4 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production level of 1.875 billion bushels. The acreage level was unchanged from the May report and the average wheat yield was increased slightly from 48.9 bushels per acre in May. The final wheat acreage and yield figures will likely be dependent on the late planting dates in the primary spring wheat production areas of North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota, as well as the growing conditions in the Central Plains States. USDA is projecting the 2024-25 wheat ending stocks at 758 million bushels and the estimated 2024-25 U.S. average wheat price at $6.50 per bushel.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960;  E-mail - [email protected] ​

Many farm operators will tell you that making grain marketing decisions is one the most difficult parts of farming. This is especially true during times of stagnant grain markets such as have been occurring in recent months. In July of 2023, December corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for the 2023 corn crop were trading above $5.00 per bushel; however, December cash corn futures have not topped that level during the first few months of 2024. In addition, the basis levels at many ethanol plants and grain elevators has widened in 2024 compared to a year ago. As a result, local corn prices being offered for the 2023 corn that is still in storage and being marketed in the Spring and early Summer of 2024 is much lower than it was last year at this time.
 
Cash corn futures have primarily traded in a range of $4.30 to $4.60 per bushel during the first five months of 2024. Cash corn prices in southern Minnesota at local ethanol plants, feed mills, and grain elevators has primarily ranged from $4.20-$4.50 per bushel in 2024, with some locations across the Midwest temporarily having higher or lower cash corn prices, depending on the local basis levels. Farmers still remember a year ago in 2023, when local cash corn prices in the Upper Midwest were above $6.00 per bushel during the first half of 2023, or 2022, when local cash corn prices in the Midwest traded at $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel during the first half of the year. This drastic change in local corn marketing opportunities has made it difficult for farmers to complete their corn marketing on the 2023 corn that is still in storage and unpriced.
 
Similar to corn, CBOT November soybean futures prices for the 2023 soybean crop were trading above $13.00 per bushel during the early months of the year. By comparison, the cash soybean futures price has remained near $12.00 per bushel during the first five months of 2024 and local soybean basis levels have widened out compared the basis levels last year at this time. Cash soybean prices for unpriced soybeans in storage in southern Minnesota have traded in a range from $11.25 to $11.75 per bushel most of the time during the first few months of 2024, with slightly higher cash prices at soybean processing plants. A year ago, cash soybean prices in the Midwest exceeded $14.00 per bushel on many occasions during the first half of 2023.
 
The much lower cash corn and soybean prices in 2024 in the Spring and early Summer months of 2024, compared to the last few years, has made it very difficult to market the remaining inventory of the 2023 corn and soybean crop that is still in storage. Current cash price offerings for both corn and soybeans during the first half of 2024 have been at lowest level early in the year since the first six months in 2020. Many grain producers had 2023 breakeven levels to cover cash expenses, land costs, and overhead costs of near $5.00 per bushel for corn and over $11.00 per bushel for soybeans, depending on their final crop yields. There have been very few opportunities to capture those price levels since the completion of the 2023 harvest season.
 
For many farmers, the major marketing focus in the past couple of months has turned to trying to “lock-in” favorable prices on the 2024 corn and soybean crop, which has also been very difficult. The “new crop” CBOT December corn futures has traded in a fairly tight range of $4.60 to $4.80 per bushel most of the time since January of 2024, only briefly reaching $4.90 per bushel on a few occasions. Local ethanol plants and grain elevators in Southern Minnesota have typically been offering forward contract corn prices for harvest delivery of the 2024 crop in the $4.25-$4.50 per bushel range during the past few months, which is about $1.00 per bushel lower than “new crop” cash corn bids a year ago at this time in 2023, and $2.00 per bushel below harvest price bids in the Spring months of 2022. Basis levels for “new crop” corn have generally been $.30-$.40 per bushel below the CBOT December corn futures price at most locations in the Upper Midwest, with some variation depending on location. This is a much wider basis level than existed in the previous couple of years in early June.
 
Like corn, the 2024 “new crop” CBOT November soybean futures price has traded much lower during the first few months of 2024, compared to futures prices during similar months in recent years. The November soybean futures price has generally traded between $11.50 and $12.00 per bushel in the first five months of 2024. By comparison, the harvest futures price in the first few months of 2023 was trading above $13.00 per bushel, and was above $14.00 per bushel in 2022.
 
The basis level for 2024 “new crop” soybeans in the Upper Midwest generally been $.70-$.80 per bushel below the CBOT November futures price in recent weeks, and $.40-$.50 per bushel below at soybean processing plants. This 2024 soybean basis levels are significantly wider than typical pre-harvest basis levels that were offered in the three previous years. Local “new crop” cash prices in the Upper Midwest for the 2024 soybean crop have generally been in the $11.00 to $11.50 per bushel range, with prices exceeding or dropping below that level a few times, depending on location and local basis levels. Price offerings at processing plants have been slightly higher.
 
Looking ahead to grain marketing opportunities in the Summer months of 2024
Prior to the 2024 planting season in March and early April this year, there was considerable concern about the potential for drought during the 2024 growing season in the Upper Midwest. However, above normal precipitation in the past two months has basically eliminated drought concerns in the primary corn and soybean production areas in the country. USDA released the first crop ratings for the 2024 corn crop on June 3, which showed 75 percent of the U.S. corn crop rated “good to excellent”. This compares to a “good to excellent” rating of 69 percent a year ago in early June and a 5-year average of 70 percent. The only recent year to exceed the initial 2024 corn rating was at 76 percent in 2021. Nearly all major corn producing States in the Upper Midwest had an initial 2024 corn crop rating between 70 to 80 percent in the “good-to-excellent” category.
 
In the past few decades, when the initial crop rating has exceeded the previous average, the resulting U.S. corn yield has reached a record yield level about 50 percent of the time. The current record U.S. corn yield is 177.3 bushels per acre, which was set last year, even though there were very dry conditions in portions of the Upper Midwest in 2023. USDA is currently projecting a trendline corn yield of 181 bushels per acre in 2024 and most grain marketing analysts are estimating the national 2024 U.S. corn yield between 178 and 180 bushels per acre. In any case, unless drought or some other weather issue develops later this year, there will likely be a very solid U.S. corn yield in 2024, which will likely keep U.S. corn ending stocks at fairly high levels and put downward pressure on “new crop” corn prices.
 
The initial 2024 soybean crop rating will be released in the June 10th weekly USDA crop progress report. Most analysts also expect the initial soybean crop rating for this year to exceed the 5-year average rating, with fairly solid ratings in most of the major soybean producing States. The USDA crop progress report on June 3 listed soybean planting in the U.S. at 78 percent completed, which was five percent ahead of the 5-year average. The soybean planting progress has been a bit slower in some portions of the Upper Midwest due to excess rainfall during late May and early June. About the only thing that could be a positive for the “new crop” soybean prices would be if the final soybean planted acres are below the expectations of USDA and grain marketing analysts, or if negative weather conditions develop later this Summer.   
 
Making grain marketing decisions for 2023 grain that is still in storage, as well as for this year’s corn and soybean crop, has been very challenging during the first few months of 2024. Most farmers probably have a 2024 “breakeven” market price of over $5.00 per bushel for corn and over $11.00 per bushel for soybeans to cover crop input expenses, land costs, and overhead expenses at average crop yields. There have not been very many opportunities to “lock-in” local cash prices at or above those levels in recent months. Unless drought conditions or other crop production problems develop later in the 2024 growing season, it is not likely that there will be a major rally in corn and soybean prices later this Summer. In the absence of weather issues, corn and soybean prices in 2024 are likely to follow a more typical seasonal price pattern as we progress toward harvest.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960;  E-mail - [email protected]
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