The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) recently announced the final RMA county average yields for corn and soybeans. The RMA yields are used to determine payment eligibility for producers that carried either 95 percent or 90 percent Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO), or Supplemental Crop Option (SCO) area-based crop insurance coverage for the 2025 crop year. ECO and SCO insurance coverage utilize the same Spring projected price and the same harvest price as the typical individual crop insurance policies; however, ECO and SCO insurance indemnity payments are based on county average expected yields and final harvest yields, rather than individual farm yields. Final county RMA yields corn and soybeans are usually not released until June in the year following harvest, which is why any potential ECO and SCO payments are not finalized until that time, as compared to indemnity payments for individual insurance policies, which are usually paid shortly after harvest.
ECO and SCO insurance can be purchased as an additional endorsement with underlying Yield Protection (YP) and Revenue Protection (RP) individual crop insurance coverage. Calculations for ECO and SCO with YP policies are based on how the final county yield for a crop compares to the 2025 average county yield for that crop. In order to trigger an insurance indemnity payment with YP policies, yield reductions must be 5 percent below the county average yield with 95% ECO coverage, 10 percent below the average yield with 90% ECO coverage, and 14 percent below the average yield with SCO coverage.
Calculations for ECO and SCO coverage with RP policies compares the final county revenue for a crop to the expected county revenue for that crop. The expected revenue is the 2025 average county yield times the projected crop insurance price, while the final revenue is the final county yield for 2025 times the harvest price for that crop. In years when the harvest price is lower than the projected price for a crop, such as occurred with corn and soybeans in 2025, ECO and SCO payments would likely be triggered at higher final county average yields than with YP policies, due the revenue calculation. For RPE coverage (RP policies with harvest price exclusion), the 2025 trigger percentages should be similar to RP policies.
Following is a Summary of 2025 ECO and SCO payments for corn and soybeans:
CORN - The Spring projected price for corn in 2025 was $4.70 per bushel, while the harvest price was $4.22 per bushel, or 10.2 percent below the projected price. As a result of the significantly lower harvest for corn, insurance indemnity payments for producers that had 95% ECO coverage in 2025, with a RP insurance policy, were triggered at a final 2025 county yield that was 5.8 percent above the county average yield. The indemnity payments with a 90% ECO policy were triggered at a final 2025 corn yield very near the county average yield. The maximum indemnity payment for RP policies with either 95% ECO coverage or 90% ECO coverage were achieved with a final 2025 county corn yield that is about 4.3 percent below the county average yield. SCO payments would be initiated with a yield reduction of 4.3 percent or more. For example, if the 2025 county average yield was 210 bushels per acre with an RP policy, 95% ECO payments would be initiated at a final 2025 yield below 222 bushels per acre, and at a final yield very near 210 bushels per acre with 90% ECO coverage. The maximum ECO payments would occur at a 2025 county yield below 200 bushels per acre.
Insurance indemnity payments on RP policies with 95% ECO coverage were triggered on non-irrigated corn acres in about 29 percent of eligible counties in the U.S. in 2025. Several counties in West Central and Southeast Minnesota qualified for at least partial indemnity payment with 95% ECO coverage, with some counties in West Central Minnesota qualifying for the maximum ECO payment. About two-thirds of the Counties in Iowa qualified for a partial insurance payment with 95% ECO coverage, with some counties in the North Central and Southwest portions of Iowa qualifying for a maximum payment. A few counties in southern South Dakota, as well as some counties northwest and southeast Nebraska, qualified for the maximum indemnity payment at the 95% ECO coverage level. Only a few counties in North Dakota and Wisconsin qualified for ECO payments for corn in 2025.
 
SOYBEANS - The projected price for soybeans in 2025 was $10.54 per bushel, while the harvest price was $10.35 per bushel. Insurance indemnity payments were triggered in counties that had a final county yield that was 3.3 percent below the county average yield with 95% ECO insurance coverage in 2025, and 8.4 percent yield reduction with 90% ECO coverage. Maximum ECO indemnity payments occurred with a 2025 yield reduction about 12.5 percent below the county average yield. Fewer counties in the Upper Midwest qualified for soybean 2025 ECO payments, as compared to corn. The only significant soybean 2025 ECO payments in the Upper Midwest were in eastern North Dakota and a few counties in West Central Minnesota. There were very few counties that qualified 2025 ECO payments in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, or southern Minnesota.
 
Updated Summary of Potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
For the 2025 crop year only, producers will get the higher of potential PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops, with payments to be paid in October, 2026. The final 2025 county RMA yields that were released in June are important to determine potential 2025 ARC-CO payments. The final market year average (MYA) prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat are used to determine any potential Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) payments for the 2025 crop year. The 2025 MYA price is the U.S farm-level average price from September 1, 2025 through August 31, 2026. If the MYA price for a crop is lower than the 2025 reference price, there will be a PLC payment. The potential ARC-CO payments are based on the MYA price and the final 2025 county average yield, compared to the benchmark (BM) price and county benchmark yield for 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.
 
CORN - The 2025 PLC reference price is $4.42 per bushel, and the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $5.03 per bushel. Based on the June WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA corn price is $4.15 per bushel. This is $.27 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 corn PLC payments and is $.88 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be about $30 to $40 per corn base acre in many counties, depending on the farm program yield. If the MYA price increases to $4.25 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would drop to about $20 to $30 per base acre; however, if the MYA price declines to $4.05 per bushel, the PLC estimate would increase to about $40 to $50 per base acre. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final county average corn yield that is about 8-10 percent above the 2025 benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 104 percent or less of the county benchmark yield.
 
SOYBEANS - The 2025 PLC soybean reference price is $10.71 per bushel, and the 2025 soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $12.17 per bushel. Based on the June WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is $10.40 per bushel. This is $.31 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 PLC payments and is $1.77 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $10.40 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $10 to $15 per soybean base acre, which would drop to about $6 to $10 per base acre if the MYA price increases to $10.50 per bushel. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 102 percent or less of the county benchmark yield.
 
WHEAT - The 2025 PLC wheat reference price is $6.35 per bushel, and the 2025 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.98 per bushel. Based on the June WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA wheat price is $5.05 per bushel. This is $1.30 per bushel under the threshold for 2025 wheat PLC payments and is $1.93 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $5.05 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be about $40 to $50 per base ace. At the current MYA price estimate, the 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a 2025 county wheat yield that is about 20-25 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. It appears highly likely that there will be both a significant PLC and ARC-CO payment on wheat base acres for the 2025 crop year.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on June 11 did not change estimated 2026 corn or soybean production levels, and did not make any significant adjustments in the projected 2026-27 demand levels for either corn or soybeans. The only significant change in the June WASDE report from the May monthly report was a decline of 0.5 bushels per acre in the projected 2026 national average wheat yield, with a corresponding adjustment to the estimated 2026 wheat production and the 2026-27 ending stocks. There were no adjustments to the 2026-27 corn and soybean carryout levels.
 
Most grain marketing analysts viewed the June WASDE Report as generally “neutral” for both the corn and soybean market; however, there is some uncertainty with both crops related to the estimated 2026 acreage and production levels. The supply, production, ending stocks, and price projections in the current WASDE Report are for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years. The USDA marketing year for corn and soybeans for the 2025-26 began on September 1, 2025, and ends on August 31, 2026, and for the 2025-26 marketing year ends begins on September 1, 2026, and ends on August 31, 2027. The 2025-26 marketing year for wheat and small grains ended on May 31, 2026, and the 2026-27 marketing year extends from June 1, 2026, until May 31, 2027.
 
Following are some highlights of the June 11th USDA WASDE Report:
 
CORN
USDA is projecting 2025-26 corn ending stocks at 2.14 billion bushels, which is the same as the May estimate., and is the highest in recent years. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks estimate compares to 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. The projected corn supply for the balance of the 2025-26 marketing year remains quite large in many areas, which is could limit support for “old crop” corn prices this Summer. Farmers with some of last year’s corn still in storage will want to watch for rallies in local cash corn bids in the coming weeks to take advantage of the cash corn prices, as well as any short-term improvements in local corn basis levels.   
 
USDA kept the total estimated 2026 U.S. corn production at 15.99 billion bushels, which was the same as the May WASDE Report. The 2026 estimate compares to the record U.S. corn production level of 17.02 billion bushels in 2025, 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, 13.73 billion bushels in 2022 and 15.11 billion bushels in 2021. The projected average U.S. corn yield for 2026 in the June Report is 183 bushels per acre, which is the same as the May estimate. The 2026 yield projection compares to the current record national average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022. The WASDE Report projects 2026 planted corn acres in the U.S at 95.3 million acres and harvested acres at 87.4 million acres. This compares to harvested acres of 91.3 million acres in 2025, 83 million acres in 2024, 86.5 million acres in 2023, and 78.7 million acres in 2022.  
 
USDA is estimating total corn usage for the 2026-27 marketing year at 16.2 billion bushels, which compares to projected final corn usage of 16.45 in 2025-26, 15.13 million bushels for 2024-25 and 14.97 billion bushels in 2023-24. Based on the projected decline U.S. corn acreage in 2026 and the estimated lower national average corn yield in 2026, along with a modest decrease in estimated corn usage, USDA is projecting a decrease in corn ending stocks by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year on August 31, 2027, compared to the current marketing year. The 2026-27 corn ending stocks are estimated at just below 1.96 billion bushels, which is 8.6 percent below the projected 2025-26 ending stocks; however, the 2026-27 ending stocks would still be 26.4 percent above the final 2024-25 ending stocks. The relatively high level of projected ending stocks may limit significant rallies in the 2026 “new crop” corn prices, unless some weather issues develop during the 2026 growing season.
The June 11 WASDE report estimated the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which was the same as a month earlier. USDA also left the 2026-27 corn price estimate unchanged from the May estimate at $4.40 per bushel. The corn price projections for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years compare to the final average corn prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $5.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current corn price projections are still well above the final average prices of $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20 and $3.61 per bushel in 2018-19. Local cash prices in Southern Minnesota for unpriced 2025 corn have dropped to near $3.70 per bushel at many locations, after trading above $4.00 per bushel a few weeks ago. “New crop” corn bids for Fall delivery of the 2026 corn crop are also currently below $4.00 per bushel at most grain elevators and ethanol plants in the region.
 
SOYBEANS
Based on the June 11 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is the same as the May WASDE report. The projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks compare to carryover levels of 325 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. The soybean ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected to decline by 30 million bushels from the anticipated 2025-26 carryout levels, resulting in in ending stocks estimated at 310 million bushels. USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2026-27 at 4.49 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 218 million bushels from the estimated final 2025-26 usage level.
 
USDA is estimating the 2026 planted soybean acres at 84.7 million acres and the projected U.S. average soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, which compares to 81.2 million planted acres and a final national average yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025. Some crop experts feel that the 2026 U.S. soybean acreage could be adjusted higher in the June 30 USDA Crop Acreage Report, due to a shift from corn acres resulting from the higher fertilizer prices. Marketing analysts will also be keeping a close eye on the national average soybean yield, which could be highly variable in future months, depending on growing season weather patterns in the soybean production areas.
 
The June 11 WASDE Report listed the projected average U.S “on-farm” soybean price for the 2026-27 marketing at $11.40 per bushel, which is the same as the May estimate. This would be a $1.00 per bushel above the estimated average soybean price of $10.40 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026. The USDA soybean price projections for 2026-27 and 2025-26 compare to other recent final average prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, and $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23. Soybean prices at processing plants in Southern Minnesota for the remaining 2025 crop were trading just below $11.00 per bushel following the WASDE report. The cash soybean price has declined in recent weeks, after increasing by over $1.00 per bushel earlier this Spring. Contract prices for Fall delivery of the 2026 soybean crop in Southern Minnesota are slightly below the current cash prices at the processing plants, with even lower prices at local elevators.
 
WHEAT
USDA made no changes in the final 2026-27 wheat demand in the latest WASDE report; however, the 2026-27 ending stocks were lowered slightly due to reduction in the estimated 2026 average wheat yield. USDA is projecting total 2026 wheat acres at 43.8 million acres and a 2026 U.S. average wheat yield of 47 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production level of 1.543 billion bushels. This compares to wheat acreage levels on 45.3 million acres in 2025 and 46.3 million acres in 2024, along with final average wheat yields of 53.3 bushels per acre in 2025 and 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024. USDA is projecting the 2026-27 wheat ending stocks at 744 million bushels, which was lowered by 18 million bushels from the May estimate, and compares to carryout levels of 935 million bushels in 2025-26 and 855 million bushels in 2024-25.  USDA estimated the 2026-27 U.S. average wheat price at $6.00 per bushel, which was lowered by $.50 per bushel from the May WASDE report due to current wheat price trends. The 2026-27 price estimate compares to final average wheat prices of $5.05 per bushel in 2025-26 and $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25.  
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

The Spring planting season of 2026 has been a mixed scenario for farmers across the Upper Midwest. Favorable weather conditions from late April until mid-May allowed for corn and soybean planting to be completed in many areas of the Midwest; however, frequent rainfall events during much of May has slowed planting progress in some portions on the eastern and southern Corn Belt. A cooler than normal weather pattern during the first half of May slowed corn and soybean development in the Upper Midwest. Many areas were also negatively impacted by very strong winds and dust storms in mid-May, as well as some isolated frost damage and severe weather..
 
Total rainfall amounts across the primary crop production regions of the U.S. during the month of May were quite variable. Most areas received some precipitation during May, with portions of the Eastern Corn Belt getting excess rainfall that delayed planting and caused some crop loss. On the other hand, some portions of the Western Corn Belt received less than normal rainfall in May, and continue to have some drought concern as we advance through the 2026 growing season.
 
As of May 27, the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center at Waseca had recorded only 1.85 inches of rainfall during May, with over 70 percent of the precipitation occurring from May 17 and 18. The May rainfall in Waseca was 2.62 inches below the long-term average monthly precipitation for May. The Waseca location received 2.67 inches of precipitation in April, which was .63 inches below normal. Total 2026 precipitation at the Waseca location was 8.25 inches, which is 4.24 inches below normal. As of May 27, the U of M Southwest Research and Outreach Center at Lamberton had received only 1.07 inches of rainfall during May, which is over 2 inches below normal. This followed an April precipitation total of 3.21 inches, which was slightly above normal. Total stored soil measurements at the Lamberton site on May 15 were very near the long-term average and were improved over stored soil moisture levels in late May a year ago.
 
A large portion of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, North and South Dakota dealt with strong winds and a couple of severe dust storms in mid-May. The dust storms resulted in light to moderate damage to thousands of acres of crop land in the affected States. Some areas of the Upper Midwest also had light to moderate frost on a few dates during mid-May, as well as some hail associated with severe storms. A majority of the corn and soybeans in the affected region were small enough to have very little impact from the extreme winds, frost or hail; however, there were some isolated reports of replanting being necessary on earlier planted corn and soybeans. There was also some reported damage to small sugar beet plants in portions of western Minnesota.
 
Based on the May 26 USDA Crop Progress Report, 86 percent of the corn in the U.S. was planted, which compares to a 5-year average of 83 percent planted by that date. As of May 27, corn planting was over 90 percent completed and corn emergence was ahead of normal in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota however, corn planting completion was at only 63 percent in Ohio, 75 percent in Mchigan,76 percent in Indiana, and 82 percent in Wisconsin. The May 27 USDA Report showed that 79 percent of the soybeans nationwide were planted, which is well-above the planting pace in 2025, and compares to a 5-year average soybean planting rate of 68 percent by that date. Similar to corn, soybean planting well ahead of normal in most of the major soybean-producing States in the Upper Midwest but trailed the normal planting pace in portions of the eastern Corn Belt.
 
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on May 28 showed that over 77 percent of the U.S. was experiencing some level of drought, with over 60 percent of the country in in the “moderate: drought category or worse. About the only areas of the U.S. with very little drought are the Eastern Corn Belts and the Great Lakes States. In Nebraska, 95 percent of the state was in some level of drought, with extreme drought conditions dominating the western two-thirds of the State. Higher levels of drought conditions also existed in Kansas and South Dakota, along with expanding drought areas in southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa.
 
Based on the May 26 USDA Crop Progress Report, 38 percent of the primary crop production area in the U.S. reported “short” or “very short” top soil moisture levels, with the highest percentages reported in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Kansas. The national crop rating that was released on May 26 indicated that 44 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated “poor” to “very poor”, with only 27 percent of the crop rated “good” to “excellent”. The winter wheat conditions were even more severe in Nebraska and Kansas, with “poor” to “very poor” ratings 82 percent and 55 percent. The late-May top soil moisture levels in most other areas of the Midwest were closer to long-term averages, including some areas of surplus moisture in the eastern Corn Belt.  Portions of the western Corn Belt have received some much-needed rainfall during the last week of May.
 
The level of growing degree units (GDU’s), which measure growing conditions for corn and soybeans, was near normal for the month of May at many locations in the Midwest; however, most areas dealt with very extreme GDU accumulation, from very low in early May to quite high at the end of the month.  A total of 374 GDU’s had accumulated at the U of M Research Center at Waseca since May 1, which was 54 GDU’s ahead of normal accumulation, and compares to 346 GDU’s accumulated by May 31, 2025. As of May 26, the GDU accumulation during the month of May at the U of M Research Center at Lamberton was as slightly ahead of normal. Much of the corn in the Upper The very warm temperatures at the end of May and the first few days of June should help push crop development ahead of normal, except in areas with limited moisture, as well as in locations with replant acres or late planted row crops.
 
Given the better than average start to the 2026 growing season in many key corn producing States, there is certainly potential that the 2026 U.S. corn yield could meet or exceed the U.S. “trendline” corn yield near 183 bushels per acre.. However, the growing drought area in the Plains States and large area of abnormally dry conditions in other portions the Midwest has raised some concerns regarding the final 2026 corn yield levels in some areas. The other factor besides the national average crop yields that will affect final 2026 U.S. corn and soybean production will be the final 2026 planted crop acreage. The March 30 USDA Planting Intentions Report estimated that 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans would be planted in 2026 We should get a much clearer indication of the final corn and soybean planting numbers in the June 30th USDA Crop Acreage Report and the 2026 prevented planted acreage data in July.
 
USDA Announces Farm Program Base Acre Update
Eligible landowners will have the opportunity to increase their crop base acres for potential Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) farm program payments in future years. The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) recently announced that the eligible landowners will receive a notice of possible changes in their crop base acres, and will have from now until August 31, 2026 to finalize the proposed base acre updates. The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) that was signed into law in 2025 provided for several updates to Title I commodity program provisions in the Farm bill. One of these updated allowed for the addition of up to 30 million more farm program base acres, which will be allocated among eligible program crops.
 
The added base acres will be for acres planted to farm program crops that are currently not eligible for farm program benefits. Potential updates to base acres were determined from the actual planted crop acres each year from 2019 to 2023 that were reported to FSA offices, including any prevented planted acres. The base acre update is for added crop base acres and will not impact existing base acres. There will not be an opportunity to change or update existing crop base acres. The new crop base acres will be eligible for farm program benefits for the 2026 crop year; however, no announcement has been made as to when 2026 farm program sign-up will begin. For details on the crop base acre update, landowners can contact their local FSA office or go to the special FSA website at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]