August is typically the month of the year when we get the first producer survey yield estimates from USDA, as well as yield projections from major private firms. This yield data is gathered in different formats from producer survey and crop tours. There is not necessarily a method that has proven more accurate than any other, as all methods have some strengths as well as some limitations. As usual, the one consistency being echoed by most crop experts is that the 2025 crop yields are likely to be highly variable and are very difficult to predict. Some areas of the Western Corn Belt have experienced excellent growing conditions this year, while other portions of the Midwest have been negatively impacted by excessive rainfall and heat, as well as late season fungal diseases. Most of the crop information in these estimates was based on crop conditions in early-to-mid August, so any major changes in conditions after that timeframe could alter final state or national yield numbers.
The statewide and national corn and soybean yield estimates in the USDA Crop Report that was released on August 12, 2025, were based on crop conditions as of August 1. The USDA report was based on a survey of over 15,000 crop producers from across the United States that was conducted National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). The next USDA Crop Report will be released on September 12 and will be based on crop conditions as of September 1. This report will include actual field survey data in the yield and production estimates.
The “Pro Farmer Crop Tour”, which is conducted in late August, is one of the main sources of crop yield and production estimates that is released by private firms. This annual tour is quite well established and has been around for several decades. Pro Farmer Tour gathers “in-person” field yield data from the primary corn and soybean production areas in seven States during the third or fourth week of August, which is then adjusted for crop maturity and historical differences between tour data and final yield numbers. Yield adjustments are also made in made in states that have unique conditions in certain areas of a state, such as drought conditions, irrigation in Nebraska, and geographical differences in states like Minnesota and South Dakota.
For the several years, DTN has conducted a “digital yield tour” of the primary corn and soybean production areas in the United States. DTN derives their yield estimates utilizing satellite imagery taken during the second week of August, which is then adjusted based on actual rainfall amounts and temperature data, as well as for the drought index. The DTN yield data will continue to be updated into September. DTN did not issue a national corn or soybean yield estimate in the August estimates.
Nationally, the Pro Farmer corn yield estimate was 182.7, compared to 188.8 bushels per acre in the August 12 USDA Crop Report. The 2025 national corn yield projections from USDA and Pro Farmer both exceed the final 2024 record average U.S. corn yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. The 2024 national corn yield projections also compare to other recent national average U.S. corn yields of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, and 172 bushels per acre in 2020.
The national yield differences between the USDA corn yield estimate (188.8 bu./acre) and the Pro Farmer projection (182.7 bu./acre) may not seem that significant; however, that could potentially represent a large difference in the final total 2025 U.S. corn production level. Depending on U.S. and World corn demand, that yield difference could affect the U.S. corn supply, which in turn could impact grain market prices in the coming months. The current difference between the corn yield estimates from USDA and Pro Farmer is 6.2 bushels per acre. Based on the USDA estimate of 88.7 million harvested acres of corn in the U.S. in 2024, that yield difference represents nearly 550 million bushels of corn. USDA is currently estimating the 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks at just over 2.1 billion bushels, based on the USDA estimated yield of 188.8 bushels per acre. A national yield decline of 6 bushels per acre in 2025 would potentially reduce U.S. corn carryout level to the much more manageable level of 1.55 billion bushels.
In many instances, there was not a lot of consistency in the state-by-state average corn yield estimates from the various sources. Some states had higher projected corn yields in the August 12 USDA crop report compared to estimates released by the crop tours and digital surveys, while in other states the USDA projected yield trailed the private estimates. For example, USDA estimated the 2025 Illinois corn yield at 221 bushels per acre and DTN was at 220.1 bushels per acre, compared to the estimate of 199.6 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. In Iowa, the corn yield estimates were 222 bushels per acre by USDA and 223.7 bushels per acre by DTN, while Pro Farmer was at 198.4 bushels per acre. On the other hand, Pro Farmer had a corn yield projection of 202.8 bushels per acre for Minnesota, which was fairly close to the USDA yield estimate of 202 bushels per acre and the DTN yield at 199.1 bushels per acre. 2025 crop and weather conditions in the western Corn Belt have been much more consistent than in the eastern Corn Belt.
NASS estimated the 2025 U.S. national average soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre in the August 12 USDA Report, which was very similar to national soybean yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. The USDA and Pro Farmer 2025 soybean yield estimates would far exceed the final national yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024 and 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, as well as the current record national average soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016. The various state-by-state soybean yield projections in the northern Corn Belt showed less variation between the August USDA yield estimates and the 2025 yield projections by the private firms than existed with corn.
Based on the August 18th USDA Crop Progress Report, 71 percent of the U.S. corn crop as “good-to-excellent” which compares to late August crop ratings of 67 percent in 2024, 58 percent in 2023 and 55 percent in 2022. Only 8 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor”. The highest statewide “good-to-excellent” ratings were Iowa at 86 percent, Wisconsin at 82 percent, Nebraska and South Dakota at 77 percent, and Minnesota at 74 percent. Lower “good-to excellent” corn ratings were recorded in the Eastern Corn Belt States, with Illinois, Indiana and Ohio at 55 percent, along with North Dakota also at 63 percent.
The weekly USDA crop ratings on August 18 listed 68 percent of the soybean crop in the U.S. as “good-to-excellent”, which is the same as the mid-August rating in 2024, but is well above the ratings of 59 percent in 2023 and 57 percent in 2022 at this point in the year. Many of the Midwest states with larger soybean acreage were in the higher crop ratings categories. Iowa and Wisconsin lead the way at 82 percent rated “good-to-excellent”, followed by Nebraska and South Dakota at 77 percent, and Minnesota at 74 percent. The higher soybean ratings were lower in other states, including Indiana at 63 percent, North Dakota at 61 percent, Illinois at 60 percent, and Ohio at 56 percent. Most states in the primary soybean production area in the Western Corn Belt had higher “good-to-excellent” ratings in mid-August this year, as compared to a year ago.
Several top crop advisors point out that the 2025 national and statewide average corn and soybean yields are very hard to predict, due to the wide variability in crop conditions in the Midwest. Several portions of Midwest have been impacted by excessive rainfall during August, along with development of late season corn and soybean fungal diseases later in the growing season. We probably will not know the full impact of these situations on the final yield results until harvest is completed. Areas of the Midwest that were not impacted by adverse weather during the growing season should benefit from more favorable growing conditions in late August. Growing degree units have been running slightly ahead of normal in most portions of the Upper Midwest, so there should be limited concern regarding crop maturity at normal dates for the first killing frost in most locations.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The August 12th USDA Crop Report provided a negative shock wave to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) new  crop 2025 corn futures by increasing the projected 2025 national average corn yield by 8 bushels per acre above the July estimate. The projected record 2025 corn yield exceeded the average grain trade estimate by 4.5 bushels per acre. USDA also increased the estimated 2025 U.S. corn acreage by 2.4 million acres, compared to previous estimates. The combination of the increased corn acreage together with the higher than expected 2025 average yield boosted the estimated 2025 total U.S. corn production by over 1 billion bushels, compared to a month earlier. USDA is also projecting a record average U.S. soybean yield in 2025; however, USDA dropped the estimated 2025 harvested soybean acreage by 2.4 million acres. This combination resulted in reduced projections for total U.S. soybean production in 2025 and a reduction in the anticipated soybean ending stocks in 2025-26.   
 
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2025 total U.S. corn production at the record level of 16.741 billion bushels, which would be an increase of about 13 percent from the 2024 corn production of just over 14.86 billion bushels. The 2025 projected U.S. corn production compares to other recent corn production levels of 15.3 billion bushels in 2023, 13.6 billion bushels in 2022, 15.1 billion bushels in 2021, and 14.1 billion bushels in 2020. USDA is estimating the total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain in 2025 at 88.7 million acres, which was increased from 86.8 million acres in the July report. This compares to final harvested acreage of 82.9 million acres in 2024, 86.5 million acres in 2023 and 78.7 million acres in 2022.  
 
The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2025 at the record level of 188.8 bushels per acre, which was increased from 181 bushels per acre from the USDA yield estimate in July. The 2025 yield projection compares to the current record corn yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, and other recent average yields of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022, 176.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 172 bushels per acre in 2020. The “good-to-excellent” crop ratings for the U.S. corn crop in the weekly USDA Crop Progress Reports have been trending quite high throughout the 2025 growing season.
 
USDA is estimating record 2025 corn yields in Minnesota, Iowa, and South Dakota, along with increased 2025 corn yields compared to a year earlier in several other major corn producing States. USDA projects Minnesota’s 2025 average corn yield at the record level of 202 bushels per acre, which is 16 percent above the 2024 statewide corn yield of 174 bushels per acre. The 2025 Minnesota corn yield would compare to other recent average corn yields of 185 bushels per acre in 2023, 195 bushels per acre in 2022, 178 bushels per acre in 2021, and 192 bushels per acre in 2020. The current State record corn yield in Minnesota is 197 bushels per acre in 2017. The growing conditions for corn in 2025 have generally been favorable in much of Minnesota.
 
USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2025 average corn yield at the record level of 222 bushels per acre, which compares to the current record yield of 211 bushels per acre in 2024, 201 bushels per acre in 2023, 200 bushels per acre in 2022, and 205 bushels per acre in 2021. South Dakota is also projected to have a record statewide corn yield in 2025 at 168 bushels per acre, compared to 164 bushels per acre in 2024 and 152 bushels per acre in 2023. Illinois is forecast to have a statewide yield of 221 bushels per acre in 2025, which compares to 217 bushels per acre in 2024 and 206 bushels per acre in 2023. The projected 2025 corn yield in Indiana is 205 bushels per acre, which compares to 198 bushels per acre in 2024 and 203 bushels per acre in 2023.
 
2025 corn yield projections for other states include Nebraska at 192 bushels per acre compared to 188 bushels per acre in 2024, North Dakota at 148 bushels per acre compared to 149 bushels per acre in 2024, Ohio at 196 bushels per acre compared 177 bushels per acre in 2024, and Wisconsin at 185 bushels per acre compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024. Several other Southern and Atlantic States also had significant increases in the 2025 corn yield estimates, compared to a year earlier.
The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2025 U.S. soybean production at just over 4.29 billion bushels, which would be down 2 percent from the 2024 final production of slightly over 4.36 billion bushels. USDA decreased the estimated 2025 harvested soybean acreage to 80.1 million acres, which was down from 2.4 million acres from the July USDA estimate and compares to 86.1 million acres in 2024. USDA is projecting the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53.6 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 1.1 bushels per acre from the July estimate. The 2025 projected soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020. The current record U.S. soybean yield is 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016.
 
The recent USDA report lists several Midwestern States likely to have very strong statewide soybean yields in 2025, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Iowa. The estimated 2025 soybean yield in Illinois is 65 bushels per acre compared to 64 bushels per acre in 2024, Indiana at 62 bushels per acre compared to 59 bushels per acre in 2024; and Ohio at 57 bushels per acre compared to 50 bushels per acre in 2024. Iowa’s 2025 soybean yield is estimated at the record level of 63 bushels per acre, compared to 60 bushels per acre in 2024, 58 bushels per acre in 2023 and the current statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
 
The 2025 average soybean yield in Minnesota is estimated at the record level of 53 bushels per acre, which compares to 45 bushels per acre in 2024, 48 bushels per acre in 2023, and 50 bushels per acre in 2022. The statewide record soybean yield was 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected 2025 average soybean yields in other States include Nebraska at 57 bushels per acre compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2024, Wisconsin at 53 bushels per acre compared to 48 bushels per acre in 2024, North Dakota at 36 bushels per acre compared to 37.5 bushels per acre in 2024, and South Dakota at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre in 2024.
 
AUGUST 12  WASDE  REPORT
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2025 updated estimated U.S. corn production of 16.74 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 88.7 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks are now projected at just over 2.1 billion bushels, which was an increase of 457 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at just over 1.3 billion bushels, which compares to other recent carryout levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, and 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23.
 
USDA is projecting the market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $3.90 per bushel, which is a decline of $.30 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026. The 2024-25 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2025, is now estimated at $4.30 per bushel, which was unchanged from the July estimate. These estimates compare to recent national MYA prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21. The closing price for CBOT December corn futures following the August 12 report was $3.94 per bushel, which compares to prices of $4.01 per bushel in 2024, $4.76 per bushel in 2023 and $6.96 per bushel in 2022, following the release of the August WASDE report.   
 
The recent WASDE report projected the 2025 U.S. soybean production level at just over 4.29 billion bushels, based on 80.1 million harvested acres and a U.S. soybean yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels, which was a decrease of 20 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2024-25 ending stocks are projected at 330 million bushels. USDA is projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.10 per bushel and at $10.00 per bushel for the 2023-24 marketing year. This compares to recent national average prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22, and $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21. The closing CBOT November soybean futures price on August 12 was $10.33 per bushel, which compares to $9.82 per bushel in 2024, $13.07 per bushel in 2023 and $14.88 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.   
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

Every year many key agriculture issues are discussed as part of the feature forums that are held at Farmfest in early August. The forums included several national and state agricultural leaders discussing many of the key issues affecting farm families and rural communities in Minnesota and the Midwest. These issues included low profit margins in crop production, the need for a dependable economic “safety net” for crop and livestock producers, tariffs and ag trade, and future opportunities for biofuels. Following are some of the main issues that were discussed during the Farmfest forums in 2025: 
One Big Beautiful Bill
Early this Summer, Congress passed a large Reconciliation Bill, the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which increased reference prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops. The Bill also enhanced certain aspects of the PLC and ARC-CO farm program choices, added support for crop insurance premiums, and included higher loan rates for crops that receive FSA Marketing Assistance Loans. The Reconciliation Bill also reinstated many tax provisions that are favorable to farm families and continued some of the depreciation deductions that farmers have benefitted from in recent years. 
The panelists on the forums and some of the other speakers at Farmfest pointed out that the inability of Congress to pass a new Farm Bill created the need to include Title I and crop insurance provisions in the Reconciliation Bill. The last 5-year Farm bill was passed in 2018 and expired at the end of 2023. Congress passed one-year extensions of the current Farm Bill for both the 2024 and 2025 crop years to continue the current Title I commodity programs. Most of the crop statutory reference prices in the current Farm Bill have not changed since the 2014 Farm Bill. The reference prices set the base safety-net for producers of corn soybeans, wheat, and other crops that are enrolled in USDA farm programs. Some Farmfest panel members pointed out that the improved risk protection for farmers was only for farm program crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, and did not provide any “safety-net enhancements for livestock producers or for farm operators that raise specialty crops. 
While most members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation that attended Farmfest saw some benefits from the improved “safety net” and risk management tools for crop producers, there was some disagreement on other aspects of the One Big Beautiful Bill. The biggest disagreement surrounded cuts to USDA Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which is also part of the Farm Bill as Title IV. The Democratic members of Congress pointed out that due to the shortfalls in SNAP funding, some states may need to make the financial difference. The fear is that the added funds needed for the SNAP program by states such as Minnesota may be passed on to counties, which could possibly result in higher property taxes on owned farm land. Members of the Minnesota Republican Congressional pointed out that much of the cutbacks to the SNAP program will come from reducing fraud and overpayments in the SNAP program, and by making sure that all SNAP recipients are legally eligible. 
It is not known what impact the passage of this legislation will have on the development of a new Farm Bill later this year or early next year. There has been very limited discussion of completing a new Farm Bill during the current session of Congress. Besides the Title I and Nutrition Title of the Farm Bill, there are many other Farm Bill Titles and programs that were not addressed by the One Big Beautiful Bill. These include conservation programs, rural development initiatives, USDA direct and guaranteed loan programs to farmers and small businesses, and many more. Some of the Congressional members that participated at Farmfest were optimistic that a Farm Bill might be completed in the coming months; however, if there is not significant activity by Congress on a new Farm Bill in the weeks after Labor Day, we will likely see another on-year extension of the current Farm Bill. 
Poor Farm
Profit Margins
The continued negative or slim margins in crop and hog production, along with the low profitability in farming were a big topic of discussion during the Farmfest forums in 2025. 
Profit margins in crop production have been quite tight in the past two to three years, which is putting some farm operations at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates increased substantially in 2023 and have remained high in 2024 and 2025. At the same time, crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. 
There have been reports of increased farm bankruptcies across the U.S., as well as an increase in farm loan mediation notices in Minnesota in recent months. The short-term crop economic assistance program earlier this year and the current Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, covering crop losses from the 2023 and 2024 crop years, have provided some short-term economic help for crop producers. Most of the farm program and crop insurance enhancements in the One Big Beautiful Bill will not provide any financial assistance to farmers until 2026, so some ag leaders are pointing out that another round of short-term financial assistance might be needed following the 2025 crop year. 
Tariffs and Trade Agreements
The importance of ag exports and potential new trade agreements, as well as the potential impacts of tariffs on farm businesses and the U.S. ag economy, were discussed extensively during the Farmfest forums. There was some positivity surrounding new trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and other countries. However, concern was expressed regarding potential trade disputes with China, as well as tensions between the U.S. and other countries in the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement. Canada, Mexico, and China are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports. Currently China has no 2025 U.S. soybeans booked to be imported in the coming months. In recent weeks, the Trump Administration has proposed much higher tariffs on imports from these countries and many other countries around the World. Not only is there concern regarding the impact that retaliatory tariffs by other counties on U.S. products could have on U.S ag exports, farmers are also worried about increased farm input costs due to the added tariffs on goods entering the U.S. 
Development of
SAF Aviation Fuel
Many agriculture and leaders in the renewable fuel industry have pointed to “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers, some feedstock for SAF production is being imported from other countries. Many farm operators, ag and community leaders, and investors in renewable energy plants, are concerned about government policies related to the development and use of ethanol and other biofuels. Many states in the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, have a very strong and well-established corn-based ethanol industry, which utilizes over 35 percent of the corn produced each year in the United States. In addition to the direct benefits to farmers, renewable energy plants have become cornerstones in rural communities by providing jobs, adding to the local tax base, and enhancing the overall economic vitality of the communities. 
The members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation and the ag leaders that participated in the Farmfest forums in 2025 discussed numerous issues, programs and efforts that affect rural businesses, families, and communities in a variety of ways. In addition to the issues highlighted earlier, other topics discussed during the Farmfest forums included the importance of workforce development through the 2-year and 4-year ag programs at Minnesota colleges and universities, dealing with the economic challenges currently being experienced by rural businesses, family health care access and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of greater Minnesota, infrastructure needs, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The 2025 candidate forums and the other Farmfest forums can be viewed at: https://www.ideaggroup.com/farmfest. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone – (507) 381-7960; E-mail – [email protected]

In the national agriculture news we continue to hear about the excellent crop conditions in many portions of the Corn Belt and Plains States, with the potential for record corn and soybean yields. In the Upper Midwest, crop conditions in most areas this year have been much more favorable than a year ago; however, there were areas that incurred severe storms and heavy rainfall events during late July. There are very minimal areas of drought concerns this year in either the Midwest or the Plains States, which is a sharp contrast from a few years ago. Even though many farmers are quite optimistic about the 2025 corn and soybean yield prospects, they realize that there are still a couple months remaining in the growing season and that a lot can change.
 
Many portions of Minnesota, northern Iowa, and eastern South Dakota received 150 to 200 percent or more of their normal rainfall amounts the month of July. Some locations had record rainfall amounts during the month of July. Fortunately, most of the crops were fairly well advanced when the heavy rainfall occurred, which helped minimize the crop damage. In addition, there were several severe storms in July with strong winds and hail across the Midwest, which did cause some damage to the corn and soybean crop in some locations. The University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca recorded 7.63 inches of rainfall during July, which was 2.9 inches above normal. As of July 31, the Waseca site has received 27 inches of precipitation during 2025, which is nearly 21 percent above normal.
 
Most of the Corn Belt has been receiving timely rainfall during the growing season, which together with above normal temperatures, has resulted in very favorable conditions for crop production. The 2025 growing season in the Upper Midwest started out with normal to slightly earlier-than-normal corn and soybean planting dates in many areas, with some delayed planting in portions of the northern Corn Belt due to cool temperatures and wet field conditions. There was also some later planting in portions of the eastern Corn Belt this year. Normal to above normal temperatures from late May through July has allowed for rapid development of the corn and soybean crop. From May 1 to July 31, the accumulated crop “growing degree units” (GDU’s) at the U of M research site at Waseca were measured nearly 1,643 GDU’s, which is about 8 percent ahead normal at this location. The 2025 GDU total compares to GDU accumulation on July 31st of 1,583 in 2024 and 1,664 in 2023 at the Waseca site.
 
The weekly USDA Crop Report released on July 28 listed the rating of the 2025 U.S. corn crop at 73 percent “good-to-excellent”, which compares to 68 percent a year ago in late July. Only 7 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” on July 31, compared to 10 percent a year ago. There is a wide variation in the “good-to-excellent” crop ratings across the major corn and soybean producing States. The highest “good-to-excellent” corn rating in the primary corn producing States in the U.S. was in Iowa at 87 percent. Some of the other higher crop ratings included “good-to-excellent” ratings of 82 percent in Wisconsin, 79 percent, in Missouri,  77 percent in Nebraska, 76 percent in South Dakota, 74 percent in Minnesota, 72 percent in North Dakota, and 71 percent in Illinois. States with more moderate “good-to-excellent” corn ratings included Ohio at 62 percent and Indiana at 61 percent. A year ago in late July the “good-to-excellent” rating in Minnesota was only 58 percent, compared to the 74 percent rating this year.
 
The latest USDA Crop Report listed 70 percent of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop as “good-to-excellent”, which compared 67 percent at that level in late July a year ago. Wisconsin and Iowa had the highest “good-to-excellent” soybean rating in the Midwest at 84 percent and 82 percent respectively. Other States with very strong late July “good-to-excellent” ratings included Missouri at 75 percent, Nebraska at 75 percent, South Dakota at 73 percent, and Minnesota at 71 percent.. By contrast, the “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings were 65 percent in Illinois, 62 percent in North Dakota, 61 percent in Indiana, and 58 percent in Ohio. Only 6 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” in late July this year, which compares to 8 percent in 2024 and 15 percent in 2023. Only 3 percent of the Iowa soybean crop and 6 percent of the Minnesota crop were rated in the poorer categories.
 
There is not a lot of historical correlation between weekly crop ratings in late July and final corn and soybean yields. Timely August rainfalls and favorable growing conditions can enhance final yield levels in areas that were not severely impacted by the excessive rainfall earlier this year; however, lack of late season rain events can reduce final crop yields in the very dry areas. For example, timely rainfall and favorable growing conditions in August and early September enhanced the final 2022 corn and soybean yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest, as compared to yield expectations in late July. By contrast, dry conditions late in the growing season in the western Corn Belt in both 2023 and 2024 resulted in lower final yields compared to expectations in late July.
 
Farmers and crop consultants are quite optimistic regarding 2025 corn and soybean yield potential in many areas of the Midwest. Most portions of the Corn Belt have adequate to surplus stored soil moisture heading into August, which should help crops sustain growth during any short-term dry spells. The latest “U.S. Drought Monitor”, released on July 31st showed very little drought concern in the primary corn and soybean production areas on the U.S. The only areas listed as “abnormally dry” or “moderate drought” were southern and western Nebraska, south central and southwest South Dakota, and extreme northwest Minnesota and adjoining portions of North Dakota. There was also a small drought area in northern Illinois and central Michigan.
 
Some private companies will have Midwest crop tours later in August which may provide some indicators regarding 2025 corn and soybean yield trends in the region, which will allow for some early projections for total U.S. corn and soybean production in 2025. These crop tours tend to concentrate on the core areas of the Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Southern Minnesota, and Southeast South Dakota, which account for a large percentage of the U.S. corn and soybean production each year. The crop tours can give us some guidance on anticipated 2025 U.S. corn and soybean yields and total production. However, given the wide variation in crop conditions across the Midwest, we will likely not have solid U.S. yield and production estimates until well into the harvest season this Fall.
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]