Arriving at equitable land rental rates is always an ongoing challenge for farm operators and landlords alike, which will likely be an even bigger challenge for the 2026 growing season. Many times, land rental rates for a coming crop year are based on the profitability in crop production in the previous year or two before. In some cases, this can present profitability challenges for farm operators, if grain prices drop or there are yield challenges. On the other hand, there can be extra profit for farm operators in years with above average yields and higher levels of crop prices. Many landlords gradually increased cash rental rates from 2020 to 2023. With the advent of much lower grain prices in the past two years, along with variable crop yields in portions of the Upper Midwest in 2024, it has been challenging for farm operators to break even at higher cash rental rates.
 
Approximately two-thirds of the farmland in the Upper Midwest is under some type of cash rental agreement. Based on the 2025 USDA Cash Rental Summary and farm business management land rental data compiled by the University of Minnesota, average land rental rates in Minnesota were basically unchanged in 2024 and 2025; however, rental rates increased by over 25 percent from 2020 to 2023. Farm management analysts expect 2026 cash rental rates in most areas to stay fairly steady or decline slightly in most areas of the Midwest, given the projected continuation lower corn and soybean prices and very tight or negative profit margins for 2026.
 
The commodity prices for corn and soybeans in 2022 and early 2023 reached the highest levels in over a decade; however, the prices have declined considerably in the past two years. The final USDA national market year average (MYA) crop prices for the 2024-2025 marketing year, which ended on August 31 this year, were $4.30 per bushel for corn and $10.00 per bushel for soybeans. The MYA corn prices in other recent years were $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21. Other recent soybean MYA prices were $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, and $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21. The MYA prices are the average farm-level prices, calculated from September 1 in the year of harvest, until August 31 of the following year.
 
Many farm operators had significantly higher crop input costs from 2023 to 2025, as compared to 2022 or 2021. Based on Southern Minnesota Farm Business Management (FBM) records, the average total direct cost in 2024 for seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, etc. on cash rental acres, excluding land rents, was near $570 per acre for corn and near $290 per acre for soybeans, which was slightly lower than 2023. The 2024 FBM records showed an average of $132 per acre on corn acres and $80 per acre on soybean acres for overhead expenses, which includes machinery costs, hired labor, insurance, and other ongoing expenses, but does not include any net return to the farm operator. In addition, short-term interest rates for farm operating loans have doubled in many instances in the past 2-3 years, which further adds to the cost of production. Most experts expect crop input costs to increase again for 2026, which when combined with continued lower commodity prices could result in some challenging breakeven price levels for 2026, especially if land rental rates are at quite high levels.
 
Typically, Southern Minnesota farm operators use average yields near 200 bushels per acre for corn and 60 bushels per acre for soybeans for cash flow planning purposes. If the direct expenses for corn are $600 per acre, with overhead expenses of $135 per acre, and a land rental rate at $275 per acre, the total expenses, before any allocation for labor and management would be $1,010 per acre. With a corn yield of 200 bushels per acre, the breakeven price to cover the cost of production and land rent would be approximately $5.05 per bushel, which increases to $5.62 per bushel if the corn yield drops to 180 bushels per acre, but drops to $4.59 per bushel at a yield of 220 bushels per acre.  If a $60 per acre allocation for labor and management (family living expenses) is included, the corn price breakeven levels would rise to $5.35 per bushel with a 200 bushel per acre yield, $5.95 per bushel at a 180 bushel per acre yield, and $4.87 per bushel at a 220 bushel per acre yield.  If the cash rental rate or other expenses are $75 per acre higher than estimates, breakeven levels increase to $5.73 per bushel at 200 bushels per acre, $6.37 per bushel at 180 bushels per acre, and $5.21 per bushel at 220 bushels per acre.
 
Similarly with soybeans, using direct expenses of $300 per acre, overhead expenses of $80 per acre, land rent of $275 per acre, and a management fee of $60 per acre, the total costs would be $730 per acre. The breakeven soybean price to cover the cost of production and land rent would be about $11.92 per bushel with a yield of 60 bushels per acre, which would increase to approximately $13.00 per bushel with a yield of 55 bushels per acre and drop to $11.00 per bushel at 65 bushels per acre. There can be big differences in crop yields and expenses from farm-to-farm, which can cause breakeven prices to vary compared to the average.
 
Based on 2024 FBM records for Southern Minnesota, the average breakeven prices on cash rented land to cover direct expenses and overhead costs, plus about $60 per acre return to management was $4.83 per bushel for corn and $10.97 per bushel for soybeans. These breakeven levels included about $100 per acre for corn and $70 per acre for soybeans in 2024 crop insurance revenues. The 2024 FBM average yields in the same region were 181 bushels per acre for corn and 52 bushels per acre for soybeans and the average land rental rate was $258 per acre.
 
USDA is estimating the MYA average prices for the 2025-26 marketing year at $3.90/bu. for corn and $10.00/bu. for soybeans (as of 10-01-25). Current forward cash prices for Fall delivery of the 2026 crop year are near $3.50-$3.75 per bushel for corn and $9.00-$9.50 per bushel for soybeans at many locations in the Upper Midwest. Many ag lenders are using $4.00 per bushel for corn and $9.75 per bushel for soybeans as planning prices for 2026 crop budgets. The USDA long-range price projections for the next 5 years for average on-farm commodity prices are near $4.00 per bushel for corn and $10.00 per bushel for soybeans.
 
 
Considerations for Flexible  Cash Leases
An alternative to a flat cash rental rate that may be difficult to “cash flow” would be for a farm operator and landlord to consider using a “flexible cash lease” agreement that allows the final cash rental rate to vary as crop prices and/or yields vary or exceed established targets. The use of a flexible cash rental lease is potentially fairer to both the landlord and the farm operator, depending on the situation and how the lease is set up. Most flexible leases have been modified in recent years into a “bonus rent” agreement that uses a reasonable “base rental rate” that can “flex” upward with an added rental payment to the landlord, if the “base” crop yield and/or base crop prices (or the base crop revenue per acre) are exceeded; however, the final rental rate does not drop below the base rental rate. The big key, regardless of the flexible lease agreement, is that both the landlord and tenant fully understand the rental agreement, and the calculations that are used to determine the final rental rate.
 
Utilizing “flexible cash lease agreements” between farm operators and landlords can be a good management strategy as an alternative to extremely high straight cash rental rates; however, these agreements need to be fair and equitable to all parties. Landlords also need to be willing to adjust the “base” cash rental rates lower as necessary if crop margins become quite tighter in future years beyond the original agreement. It is extremely important that all aspects of a flexible land rental lease agreement be detailed in a signed written rental contract that includes the base rent, yield, and price determination, as well as other provisions of a flex lease. Successful “flexible cash lease agreements”, just as any other long-term cash rental agreement, have always involved cooperation, trust, and good communication between the farm operator and the landlord.
 
 
Resources for Land Rental Agreements and Flexible Leases
For additional information on flexible rental leases, land rental rates, and 2025 crop budgets, as well as sample lease contracts, please forward an e-mail to: [email protected].
Some other good resources on flexible cash leases, including sample cash rental contracts include:
• Iowa State University “Ag Decision Maker” web site at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
• University of MN Extension at: https://extension.umn.edu/business/farmland-rent-and-economics.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

By early October, the 2025 soybean harvest was in full swing in most portions of the Midwest. In addition, a majority of corn hybrids had reached physiological maturity and was rapidly reaching desirable moisture levels for harvest. The very warm and dry weather in the Upper Midwest during late September pushed the 2025 corn and soybean crop very rapidly toward maturity.  The 24-hour average temperature during September this year at the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca was 65.9 degrees, which was 4.3 degrees above normal. The warm weather trend in Southern Minnesota continued during the first seven days of October, with the Waseca location averaging 65.6 degrees, or 12.4 degrees above normal.
 
As of October 7, a total of 2,901 growing degree units (GDU’s) had been accumulated since May 1 at the U of M Research Center at Waseca, which is comparable to many areas of Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa. As of October 10, the Waseca location has not yet had the first freezing temperatures of the year, so GDU accumulation for the year continues. The total 2025 GDU accumulation at Waseca exceeded the average GDU accumulation by about 15 percent, and was slightly ahead of the GDU accumulation of 2,781 on October 7 in 2024. The extra growing degree units, combined with warm weather in September, helped this year’s corn and soybean crop reach maturity on a timely basis, as well as to dry down rapidly in the field.
 
In addition to September being extremely warm for most of the month in 2025, it was also quite dry in many areas of the Upper Midwest. The September rainfall at the Waseca Research Center totaled 1.33 inches, which was 2.82 inches below normal; however, many areas of the Corn Belt had much lower rainfall amounts during the month and are quite dry. The total growing season precipitation at Waseca was the sixth highest on record, but much of the added precipitation came in very large rainfall events during July and August. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor released on October 9th shows a large majority of the Eastern Corn Belt as “abnormally dry or in “moderate drought” conditions, as well as most of Missouri and southeastern Iowa. Most of the rest of Iowa, southern and central Minnesota, and the Dakota’s are not shown in any category in the latest drought update; however, much of northern Minnesota, as well as northern and central Wisconsin were listed as “abnormally dry”.
 
As of October 10, soybean harvest was nearing completion in many locations across Upper Midwest. Nearly all soybeans had reached maturity, except for soybeans that were planted very late due to wet field conditions or that were replanted following heavy rains and hail damage in June. As expected, soybean yields have been highly variable across the Midwest due to impacts from heavy rainfall amounts during the Summer months and very dry conditions late in the growing season in some locations, as well as yield reductions from significant soybean disease pressure in some areas. In many portions of Minnesota, Northern Iowa and eastern South Dakota soybean yields have generally been average to above average, as well as being well above most soybean yields a year ago.  Soybean yields have been less consistent and somewhat disappointing in areas that did not receive timely rainfall during the latter portions of the 2025 growing season.
 
Most of the corn in the Upper Midwest had reached physiological maturity by late September, which is the “black layer” stage, or was very close to reaching maturity. Corn is usually at 30-32 percent moisture when it reaches the “back layer” stage, and then begins to dry down naturally in the field. Ideally, growers like to see corn dried down in the field to at least 20-22 percent moisture or lower before they harvest the corn. This greatly saves on corn drying costs and improves the quality of the corn being harvested and going into storage. Corn is usually dried down to a final moisture content of 15-16 percent moisture for safe storage on the farm until the following Summer. The moisture content on much of the corn being harvested in many areas has dropped has now dropped below 20 percent in many areas. If favorable drying weather continues in the coming weeks, it is likely that corn drying costs will be greatly reduced in 2025, which is certainly beneficial in a year such as this.
It is a bit early to project 2025 corn yields across the Midwest; however, early indications are that corn yields in many areas will just as variable as the soybean yields have been. In portions of the upper Midwest such as Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa that had timely and adequate rainfall during the growing season, 2025 corn yields should end up average to above average. However, in areas that were severely impacted by the excessive rainfall at some point, or the hot, dry weather in August, corn yields might be reduced. There was also a significant amount of corn disease pressure in many areas that may impact final yields on fields that did not receive timely fungicide applications. In southern Minnesota many of the crop insurance 10-year average APH yields are 200 bushels per acre or more. The 2025 corn yields should exceed APH yields in many portions of the region, compared to a year ago when corn yields were 20-30 percent below APH yields in the same area.
 
  
2024 ARC-CO Payments Subject to Sequestration Reduction
It was recently revealed that the federal government that a 5.7 percent (.057) sequestration reduction will be applied to all 2024 ARC-CO payments that many farmers are expecting in the coming weeks. This will be factored on the calculated ARC-CO payments per crop base acre. The potential farm program payments have already factored downward by 15 percent, based on the farm program payment formula for ARC-CO and PLC payments in the 2018 Farm Bill. This means that once a 2024 ARC-CO payment for corn and soybeans per base acre has been calculated, based on the farm program formula, the payments will be further factored downward by 5.7 percent to arrive at the “net 2024 ARC-CO payment”.
 
So, the overall formula to arrive at the final 2024 ARC-CO payment is the calculated gross ARC-CO payment The calculated gross ARC-CO payment for a county (the maximum payment is the county benchmark revenue x .10)  times 85 percent (.85) (payments paid on 85 percent of the crop base acres) times .943 (5.7 percent sequestration reduction.
Corn example = $100/A (max. ARC-CO payment)  x  .85  =  $85 per base acre  x  .943  = $80.16 per base acre
Soybean example = $50/A (partial payment)  x  .85  =  $42.50 per base acre  x  .943  = $40.08 per base acre
 
 
The two information sheets written by Kent Thiesse titled: “2024 Farm Program Payment Estimates” and “2024 ARC-CO Payment Estimates for Minnesota” have both been updated to reflect the 5.7 percent sequestration reduction. The ARC-CO payment estimate information sheet for Minnesota lists the estimated 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payment for every county in Minnesota where 2024 RMA crop yields were available. The 2024 final 2024 RMA county average corn and soybean yields are used to calculate the potential ARC-CO payments for every county. To receive copies of the updated 2024 ARC-CO payment information sheets, please send an email to: [email protected].
 
 
As of this writing, the federal government shutdown continues, with no indication when it might end. When the federal government shutdown was initiated on October 1st, it halted nearly all USDA activities, including all farm-related payments and programs through Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. This included payment of any USDA farm program payments, including the likely 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payments that many farmers are expecting. USDA should be able to process those payments fairy efficiently once the federal government reopens.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

A partial shutdown of the U.S. government began on October 1, with no indications regarding how long that shutdown may last. Most farmers in the Midwest are in the middle of harvest season, so there has probably not been a lot of attention paid to the government shutdown to this point. However, if the shutdown continues for several more weeks it could start to impact financial decisions for farmers and ag lenders. Approximately half of the nearly 86,000 USDA employees have been furloughed (placed on leave) and most local FSA offices are closed until the shutdown ends. Most of the remaining USDA employees are considered “essential,” related to ongoing food and nutrition programs and inspection services for food and agriculture. The second phase of the Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments were made to eligible farmers prior to the shutdown; however, most other USDA farm-related program payments will be halted during the government shutdown.
 
Most of the federal government services through USDA that are administered through the Farm Service Agency (FSA), the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), and the Risk Management Agency (RMA) will be discontinued while the government shutdown is in effect. The shutdown also impacts programs and the release of funding through USDA Rural Development and other USDA agencies. In addition, the government shutdown will delay or cancel important reports that are regularly released by the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) and the Economic Research Service (ERS).
 
Farm operators in many portions of Minnesota, as well as in some adjoining counties in northern Iowa and eastern South Dakota are expecting to receive 2024 Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program payments in October. The ARC-CO payment are being paid to offset low commodity prices and poor corn and soybean yields in 2024. Farmers in several southern and central Minnesota counties are expecting 2024 ARC-CO payments of $75-$85 per corn base acre and $45-$50 per soybean base acre. The ARC-CO payments will not be released and paid during the duration of the federal government shutdown; however, the payments are guaranteed and will be paid at some point. The shutdown will also delay the annual rental payments for 10-15 year Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) that are usually sent out during October. Farmers waiting for approval of 2023 and 2024 disaster assistance payments or other government payments will also see delays in those payments during the shutdown.
 
The government shutdown also means that producers will not be able to take out Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing assistance loans (MAL’s) at local FSA offices until the shutdown ends. The MAL’s are 9-month loans that would be taken out by a farmer after harvest on 2025 grain production that is in storage. The MAL’s allow crop producers to receive partial value for their grain following harvest for cash flow purposes, while maintaining marketing flexibility into the following Spring or Summer. This is especially important in a year such as 2025, when farmers are facing very low corn and soybean prices and quite wide basis levels in many areas of the Midwest. Many farm operators would likely utilize MAL’s for short-term financing after harvest to finish paying any remaining 2025 crop expenses, second half land rental payments, and the pay year-end real estate and term loan payments. The MAL’s could also be used for payment of prepaid crop input costs for 2026.
 
Many ag lenders utilize FSA direct and guaranteed loans as financial tools for providing financing to farm operations. FSA loan guarantees become extremely important during periods of reduced farm income and low profit margins in crop farming, such as currently exist in many areas. The government shutdown will likely slow the FSA loan approval process, and if the shutdown continues, it could result in difficulties for some farm operators being able to finalize their 2026 farm operating loans on a timely basis. The FSA direct loans are especially important to younger farmers and those with less than 10 years of experience, who may have difficulty getting financing through traditional lenders. The direct loans typically provide longer term loans at lower interest rates to producers for land purchases and other capital improvements. An extended shutdown could delay the FSA loan approval process to a point where some farmers might miss out on a land purchase opportunity. 
 
The federal government shutdown will likely delay or eliminate the USDA weekly crop reports, the October monthly crop report, as well as the October supply and demand report. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) October crop report was being widely anticipated, as many farmers and marketing analysts are wondering if USDA will lower the estimated 2025 corn and soybean yields, which could help improve the current low market prices. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was scheduled to be released on October 9, but will also likely be delayed or eliminated. The WASDE reports include updated grain usage and export estimates for U.S. grain supplies, as well as projections for farm-level grain prices for the current marketing year. These reports can be very useful to crop producers, livestock producers, processors, and others, as they are making marketing decisions, doing cash flow projections, and planning ahead for the coming year.
 
Since 1976, there have been 21 shutdowns of the federal government, though most have been quite short. The longest shutdown was in late 2018 and early 2019, and lasted 34 days. As of this writing, there is no compromise on the horizon that would end the government shutdown; however, government services could be restored and FSA offices reopened quickly once the shutdown ends. Most farmers and ag lenders are hoping for a timely solution to the government shutdown to avoid serious challenges following the harvest season.
 
September 30 USDA Grain Stocks Report Summary
The September 30th USDA Grain Stocks Report was released prior to the government shutdown, and it surprised most grain marketing analysts. The biggest surprise in the September Report was the estimated total U.S. corn stocks at 1.53 billion bushels, which was nearly 200 million bushels higher than the pre-report estimates. The total 2025 corn stocks compared to 1.76 billion bushels in the September report a year ago. USDA estimated that just over 643 million bushels of corn was stored on farms as of September 1 this year, which was a decrease of 137 million bushels or 18 percent from a year ago. The increase in 2024-25 corn ending stocks will now transfer to beginning corn stocks on the 2025-26 USDA balance sheet. This could potentially impact corn market price increases, if USDA reduces the estimated U.S. national corn yield in future months.
 
The latest report implies total corn usage for feed, ethanol, exports, etc., from July 1 to September 30 this year at 3.11 billion bushels, which was down slightly from 3.23 billion bushels during that same period a year ago. In addition, USDA adjusted the final 2024 U.S. corn production totals upward by 25 million bushels from previous estimates, based on adjustments in the final 2024 U.S. corn acreage and average yield. The CBOT December corn futures closing price on 9-30-25 was $4.15 per bushel, compared to similar CBOT corn prices on September 30 of $4.32 in 2024, $4.76 in 2023, $6.17 in 2022, $5.37 in 2021, $3.79 in 2020, and $3.88 in 2019.
 
The USDA soybean stocks estimate was 316.5 million bushels as of September 1, which was down about 8 percent from the U.S. soybean inventory of just over 342.5 million bushels a year ago on September 1. It was estimated that 91.5 million bushels of soybeans were stored on farms as of 9-01-25, which represented approximately 29 percent of the total stocks. The “on-farm” soybean inventory is about 18 percent lower than a year ago at this time; however, soybean basis levels in late Summer and early Fall at many grain elevators and processing plants in the Upper Midwest have remained quite wide due to poor soybean export demand.
 
The projected soybean usage of 691 million bushels for processing, exports, etc. from July 1 to September 30 in 2025 represented about a 10 percent increase from the soybean usage during the same period in 2024. However, the 2025 estimated soybean use level is still well below the usage level of 858 million bushels during that same period as recently as 2020. There was very limited soybean market reaction to the latest USDA grain stocks report due to the ongoing over the lack of soybean export sales to China. The CBOT November soybean futures price closed at $10.02 per bushel on September 30, compared to late September soybean prices of $10.37 per bushel in 2024, $12.75 per bushel in 2023, $13.66 in 2022, $12.56 in 2021, $10.23 in 2020, and $9.06 in 2019.  
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

Crop producers across the United States are dealing with either negative or very tight cash flow situations due to continued low commodity prices and high crop input costs. USDA is projecting record national average corn and soybean yields in 2025; however, even that will not be enough to offset the negative margins in crop production that exist in most areas. As a result, crop producers have had to rely on several rounds of various government payments to help sustain the cash flow in their farming business. Farmers in areas that had very poor yields in 2024 benefitted from the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) payments that were paid a few months ago, and could receive potential 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payments in October this year. Last Spring, all producers of eligible crops received 2024 Economic Community Assistance Program (ECAP) payments. USDA has now announced that farmers will receive an additional round of 2024 ECAP payments.
Details on the additional 2024 ECAP Payments
USDA has announced that an additional round of Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments will be paid to eligible crop producers. The ECAP payments were implemented to offset low crop commodity prices in 2024 and early 2025, as well as poor profit margins for the producers of most major crops raised in the U.S. The initial ECAP payments paid 85 percent (.85) of the total eligible ECAP amount. The second ECAP payment will be an additional 14 percent (.14) of the original total amount, bringing the total to 99 percent of the maximum 2024 ECAP payment. There will not be an application process and the second ECAP payments will be automatically paid to eligible producers. Here are some details on the second round of ECAP payments:
ECAP payment rates --- The total ECAP commodity payment rates ranged from near $11.36 per acre for mustard seed to $84.74 per acre for cotton. Following are the estimated additional CFAP payment rates for some common crops in the Midwest that will likely be paid in this round of payments (as well as the maximum ECAP rates):
Corn = $6.00 per acre ($42.91/A max. amount x .14)
Soybeans = $4.16 per acre ($29.76/A max. amount x .14)
Wheat = $4.29 per acre ($30.69/A max. amount x .14)
Sorghum = $5.95 per acre ($42.52/A max. payment x .14)
Barley = $3.03 per acre ($21.67A max. payment x .14)
Oats = $10.87 per acre ($77.66/A max. payment x .14)
ECAP payment example --- Following is an example of a farm that normally has 1,600 crop acres. In 2024, the FSA acreage report for the farm listed 800 acres of corn planted, 800 acres of soybeans planted:
Corn --- 800 A. x $42.91/A = $34,328
Soybeans --- 800 A. x $29.76/A. = $23,808
Maximum Total ECAP Payment = $58,136
x 85% (.85)
First ECAP Payment = $49,415
Second ECAP Payment = $ 8,139 ($58,136 x 14% (.14)
2024 ARC-CO Payments for Corn and Soybeans
This summary is based on the national average price (MYA) estimates in the September 12 WASDE report, following the completion of the 2024-25 marketing year for corn and soybeans. USDA will announce the final 2024 MYA price on September 30, 2025 that will be used to calculate the actual 2024 farm program payments. The final MYA prices are not likely to vary significantly from the September 12 WASDE report.
Here are the 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payment estimates for corn and soybeans:
Corn --- The 2024 PLC corn reference price was $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments was $4.85 per bushel. Based on the September WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024
MYA corn price is $4.30 per bushel. This is $.29 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments, so there will be no 2024 PLC payments. The estimated MYA price is $.55 below the 2024 benchmark price, which will likely initiate 2024 ARC-CO payments in many counties with reduced corn yields in 2024. At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield.
Based on the current MYA price estimate of $4.30 per bushel, eligible farmers in 19 counties in Minnesota will receive the maximum ARC-CO payment for corn, farmers in 10 counties will receive two-thirds or more of the maximum payment, and farmers in 22 counties will receive a smaller 2024 ARC-CO payment.
Soybeans --- The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the 2024 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the September WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $10.00 per bushel. This is $.74 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 soybean PLC payments, so there will be no 2024 PLC payments. The estimated MYA price is $1.12 below the 2024 benchmark price, which will likely initiate 2024 ARC-CO payments in many counties with reduced soybean yields in 2024. At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county soybean yield that is 2-3 bushels below the county benchmark yield.
Based on the current MYA price estimate of $10.00 per bushel, eligible farmers in 23 counties in Minnesota will receive the maximum ARC-CO payment for corn, farmers in 6 counties will receive two-thirds or more of the maximum payment, and farmers in 26 counties will receive a smaller 2024 ARC-CO payment.
Kent Thiesse has prepared two information sheets on 2024 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans:
· “Estimated 2024 ARC-CO Payment Tables For All MN Counties”.
· “2024 Farm Program Payment Estimates” (including general ARC-CO tables). To receive a free copy of either information sheet, send an email to: [email protected]
Potential for future Farm Program Payments
Here is an overview of other potential government assistance payments that farmers could possibly receive later this year or early in 2026:
Additional SDRP payments --- The first round of 2023 and 2024 Stage 1 SDRP (disaster) payments were paid at a rate of 35 percent (.35) of the total eligible SDRP amount. Stage 1 payments were to eligible crop producers that carried federal crop insurance policies in 2023 and 2024. SDRP “Stage 2” will include assistance for losses from uncovered losses, quality losses, and shallow losses that did not meet the threshold requirements for Stage 1 SDRP payments. It is possible that there could be a second SDRP payment later this year, if disaster funds remain after all “Stage 1” and “Stage 2” applications have been finalized; however, that payment amount will likely be smaller than the initial SDRP payment amount.
Economic Relief for the 2025 crop year --- Recently, there have been discussions by Congress and USDA regarding the potential for additional government assistance payments for the 2025 crop year to offset the continued low commodity prices and the negative impacts of the U.S. tariffs. It is not clear how these additional payments would be funded. There has also been no indication if these payments would be similar to last year’s ECAP payments, or would be structured similar to the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments in the first Trump administration that structured payments on a commodity-by-commodity basis, based on the calculated impact of the tariffs on a commodity. Any additional 2025 economic assistance payments would likely come late in 2025 or in early 2026.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]