Bearish WASDE Report Sets A Negative Tone For 2026

The multiple USDA reports that are typically released in January are often known as being a “market mover”, and it appears that 2026 will continue that trend. The World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on January 12th seems to have set a negative tone for corn and soybean markets in the early months of 2026. USDA made a significant increase in the final 2025 corn production estimate, based on increasing the final 2025 record national average corn yield and increasing the 2025 harvested corn acres by over 1 million acres. The fairly large increase in the total corn supply, together with only a minor increase in corn usage estimates, resulted in a notable increase in projected ending stocks for corn, compared to a month earlier. The WASDE report also made some adjustments to soybean supply and demand data that were also viewed as negative for grain markets. The initial market reaction following the release of the WASDE report was a significant decrease in both corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). 
CORN 
The updated National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report for 2025 that was released on January 12th estimated the final 2025 U.S. average corn yield at the record level of 186.5 bushels per acre, which was an increase of 0.5 bushels per acre from the November estimate. The 2025 corn yield surpasses previous record U.S. yields of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024 and 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023. The USDA 2025 corn yield estimate surpassed national average yield projection of nearly all grain market analysts. The overall average yield estimate by the analysts was 184 bushels per acre. The USDA corn yield estimates in January were increased significantly in Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and North Dakota, compared to the previous yield estimates in November, 2025. 
The NASS report showed Minnesota as having a record corn 2025 yield at 201 bushels per acre, compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024 and surpassing the previous record yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022. Iowa is projected to have a corn yield of 210 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 211 bushels per acre in 2024. Other projected state average corn yields for 2025 compared to 2024 yields are Illinois at 214 bushels per acre, compared to 217 bushels per acre; Indiana at 204 bushels per acre (record), compared to 198 bushels per acre; Ohio at 185 bushels per acre, compared to 177 bushels per acre; Nebraska at 194 bushels per acre (record), compared to 188 bushels per acre; Wisconsin at 188 bushels per acre (record), compared to 174 bushels per acre; South Dakota at 171 bushels per acre (record), compared to 164 bushels per acre; and North Dakota at 158 bushels per acre (record), compared to 149 bushels per acre. 
The latest WASDE report listed the total 2025 U.S. corn production at the record level of just over 17 billion bushels, which was increased from 16.75 billion bushels in November. The projected 2025 U.S. corn production was up 14.3 percent from 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, and was also above 15.34 billion bushels in 2023. The latest USDA report put the total demand for corn usage in 2025-26 at just under 16.4 billion bushels, which is an 8.2 percent increase from the 2024-25 corn usage. USDA is projecting corn export levels to increase by 342 million bushels in 2025-26, along with increases of 746 million bushels in corn used for feed and 164 million bushels in corn processed into ethanol. 
USDA is estimating 2025-2026 U.S. corn ending stocks at nearly 2.23 billion bushels, which was an increase of 198 million bushels from the December WASDE report. The estimated 2025-26 ending stocks are 43.5 percent higher than the final carryover of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, and the current projected ending stocks also substantially exceeds the carryover of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24. The 2025-26 corn stocks-to-use ratio is now estimated at the relatively high level of 13.6 percent, which compares to ratios of 10.3 percent in 2024-25, as well as 11.8 percent in 2023-24 and 9.9 percent in 2022-23. The projected 2025-26 ratio is comparable to the relatively high stocks-to-use ratios of 13.7 percent in 2019-20 and 14.6 percent in 2018-19. The large available corn supply could limit the potential for short-term rallies in the cash corn market or local basis improvement in the coming months. 
USDA is estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.10 per bushel, which is an increase of $.10 per bushel from the December estimate. The market year average (MYA) corn and soybean price estimates for 2025-26 are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2025 crop from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026; however, the MYA price does not represent estimated price for either the 2025 or 2026 calendar year. The projected 2025-26 corn price compares to final MYA price of $4.24 for 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23 and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current projected MYA price still exceeds the national average corn prices of $3.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19, and $3.36 per bushel in 2017-18. 
SOYBEANS 
The latest NASS report projects the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53 bushels per acre, which was the same as the November estimate. The 2025 yield compares to recent final U.S. average yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, and 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022. Total U.S. soybean production for 2025 is estimated at 4.262 billion bushels, which is a decrease of 112 million bushels from the 2024 production level. The recent WASDE report estimates soybean demand at 4.257 billion bushels for the 2025-26 marketing year, which is a decrease of 164 million bushels from 2024-25 soybean demand levels. Soybean crush levels are expected to increase by 125 million bushels in the current marketing year; however, while soybean exports are expected to decline by 307 million bushels from 2024-25 levels, and would be 125 million bushels below 2023-24 export levels. 
The latest WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year at 350 million bushels, which is an increase of 60 million bushels from the December report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks would be an increase of 25 million bushels from the 2024-25 carryout level of 325 million bushels. The updated 2025-26 projected ending stocks compares to other recent year-end carryout levels of 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. Current carryover levels are still well below the ending stocks of 525 million bushels in 2019-20 and 913 million bushels in 2018-19. 
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is now estimated at 8.2 percent, which is an increase from the final ratio of 7.4 percent in 2024-25, and compares to ending ratios of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, and 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22. The projected 2025-26 ratio is still considerably lower than the very high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The increase in the 2025-26 estimated soybean supply may limit opportunities for some short-term rallies in cash soybean prices in the coming months, unless weather issues develop in South America, or this coming growing season with the 2026 U.S. soybean crop. 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level (MYA) soybean price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel, which is a decrease of $.30 per bushel from the December estimate. The estimated 2025-26 average soybean price compares to the final soybean MYA prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The 2025-26 MYA price estimate would still be considerably higher than the MYA soybean prices of $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20 and $8.48 per bushel in 2018-19, which occurred during the last trade war with China. 
Bottom Line following the January WASDE Report 
Both corn and soybean market prices had a very negative market response following the release of the WASDE report on January 12, with corn decreasing by over 24 cents per bushel and soybean prices declining by about 14 cents per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the report. The USDA Grain Stocks report on January 12 indicated that as of December 1 there were 8.7 billion bushels of corn stored on farms in the U.S., including 1.45 billion bushels in Iowa and 1.2 billion bushels in Minnesota. It is likely that a high percentage of the bushels stored on farms are not yet priced, which means that the price decline on January 12 resulted in a lost asset value on the stored corn inventory of over $2 billion. A farmer that had 1,000 acres of corn in 2025 that yielded 220 bushels per acre would have 220,000 bushels of corn. If that corn is stored on the farm and not priced, that farmer lost nearly $53,000 in reduced value on his corn inventory immediately following the January WASDE report. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]