The August 12th USDA Crop Report provided a negative shock wave to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) new  crop 2025 corn futures by increasing the projected 2025 national average corn yield by 8 bushels per acre above the July estimate. The projected record 2025 corn yield exceeded the average grain trade estimate by 4.5 bushels per acre. USDA also increased the estimated 2025 U.S. corn acreage by 2.4 million acres, compared to previous estimates. The combination of the increased corn acreage together with the higher than expected 2025 average yield boosted the estimated 2025 total U.S. corn production by over 1 billion bushels, compared to a month earlier. USDA is also projecting a record average U.S. soybean yield in 2025; however, USDA dropped the estimated 2025 harvested soybean acreage by 2.4 million acres. This combination resulted in reduced projections for total U.S. soybean production in 2025 and a reduction in the anticipated soybean ending stocks in 2025-26.   
 
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2025 total U.S. corn production at the record level of 16.741 billion bushels, which would be an increase of about 13 percent from the 2024 corn production of just over 14.86 billion bushels. The 2025 projected U.S. corn production compares to other recent corn production levels of 15.3 billion bushels in 2023, 13.6 billion bushels in 2022, 15.1 billion bushels in 2021, and 14.1 billion bushels in 2020. USDA is estimating the total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain in 2025 at 88.7 million acres, which was increased from 86.8 million acres in the July report. This compares to final harvested acreage of 82.9 million acres in 2024, 86.5 million acres in 2023 and 78.7 million acres in 2022.  
 
The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2025 at the record level of 188.8 bushels per acre, which was increased from 181 bushels per acre from the USDA yield estimate in July. The 2025 yield projection compares to the current record corn yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, and other recent average yields of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022, 176.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 172 bushels per acre in 2020. The “good-to-excellent” crop ratings for the U.S. corn crop in the weekly USDA Crop Progress Reports have been trending quite high throughout the 2025 growing season.
 
USDA is estimating record 2025 corn yields in Minnesota, Iowa, and South Dakota, along with increased 2025 corn yields compared to a year earlier in several other major corn producing States. USDA projects Minnesota’s 2025 average corn yield at the record level of 202 bushels per acre, which is 16 percent above the 2024 statewide corn yield of 174 bushels per acre. The 2025 Minnesota corn yield would compare to other recent average corn yields of 185 bushels per acre in 2023, 195 bushels per acre in 2022, 178 bushels per acre in 2021, and 192 bushels per acre in 2020. The current State record corn yield in Minnesota is 197 bushels per acre in 2017. The growing conditions for corn in 2025 have generally been favorable in much of Minnesota.
 
USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2025 average corn yield at the record level of 222 bushels per acre, which compares to the current record yield of 211 bushels per acre in 2024, 201 bushels per acre in 2023, 200 bushels per acre in 2022, and 205 bushels per acre in 2021. South Dakota is also projected to have a record statewide corn yield in 2025 at 168 bushels per acre, compared to 164 bushels per acre in 2024 and 152 bushels per acre in 2023. Illinois is forecast to have a statewide yield of 221 bushels per acre in 2025, which compares to 217 bushels per acre in 2024 and 206 bushels per acre in 2023. The projected 2025 corn yield in Indiana is 205 bushels per acre, which compares to 198 bushels per acre in 2024 and 203 bushels per acre in 2023.
 
2025 corn yield projections for other states include Nebraska at 192 bushels per acre compared to 188 bushels per acre in 2024, North Dakota at 148 bushels per acre compared to 149 bushels per acre in 2024, Ohio at 196 bushels per acre compared 177 bushels per acre in 2024, and Wisconsin at 185 bushels per acre compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024. Several other Southern and Atlantic States also had significant increases in the 2025 corn yield estimates, compared to a year earlier.
The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2025 U.S. soybean production at just over 4.29 billion bushels, which would be down 2 percent from the 2024 final production of slightly over 4.36 billion bushels. USDA decreased the estimated 2025 harvested soybean acreage to 80.1 million acres, which was down from 2.4 million acres from the July USDA estimate and compares to 86.1 million acres in 2024. USDA is projecting the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53.6 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 1.1 bushels per acre from the July estimate. The 2025 projected soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020. The current record U.S. soybean yield is 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016.
 
The recent USDA report lists several Midwestern States likely to have very strong statewide soybean yields in 2025, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Iowa. The estimated 2025 soybean yield in Illinois is 65 bushels per acre compared to 64 bushels per acre in 2024, Indiana at 62 bushels per acre compared to 59 bushels per acre in 2024; and Ohio at 57 bushels per acre compared to 50 bushels per acre in 2024. Iowa’s 2025 soybean yield is estimated at the record level of 63 bushels per acre, compared to 60 bushels per acre in 2024, 58 bushels per acre in 2023 and the current statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
 
The 2025 average soybean yield in Minnesota is estimated at the record level of 53 bushels per acre, which compares to 45 bushels per acre in 2024, 48 bushels per acre in 2023, and 50 bushels per acre in 2022. The statewide record soybean yield was 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected 2025 average soybean yields in other States include Nebraska at 57 bushels per acre compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2024, Wisconsin at 53 bushels per acre compared to 48 bushels per acre in 2024, North Dakota at 36 bushels per acre compared to 37.5 bushels per acre in 2024, and South Dakota at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre in 2024.
 
AUGUST 12  WASDE  REPORT
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2025 updated estimated U.S. corn production of 16.74 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 88.7 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks are now projected at just over 2.1 billion bushels, which was an increase of 457 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at just over 1.3 billion bushels, which compares to other recent carryout levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, and 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23.
 
USDA is projecting the market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $3.90 per bushel, which is a decline of $.30 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026. The 2024-25 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2025, is now estimated at $4.30 per bushel, which was unchanged from the July estimate. These estimates compare to recent national MYA prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21. The closing price for CBOT December corn futures following the August 12 report was $3.94 per bushel, which compares to prices of $4.01 per bushel in 2024, $4.76 per bushel in 2023 and $6.96 per bushel in 2022, following the release of the August WASDE report.   
 
The recent WASDE report projected the 2025 U.S. soybean production level at just over 4.29 billion bushels, based on 80.1 million harvested acres and a U.S. soybean yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels, which was a decrease of 20 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2024-25 ending stocks are projected at 330 million bushels. USDA is projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.10 per bushel and at $10.00 per bushel for the 2023-24 marketing year. This compares to recent national average prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22, and $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21. The closing CBOT November soybean futures price on August 12 was $10.33 per bushel, which compares to $9.82 per bushel in 2024, $13.07 per bushel in 2023 and $14.88 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.   
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

Every year many key agriculture issues are discussed as part of the feature forums that are held at Farmfest in early August. The forums included several national and state agricultural leaders discussing many of the key issues affecting farm families and rural communities in Minnesota and the Midwest. These issues included low profit margins in crop production, the need for a dependable economic “safety net” for crop and livestock producers, tariffs and ag trade, and future opportunities for biofuels. Following are some of the main issues that were discussed during the Farmfest forums in 2025: 
One Big Beautiful Bill
Early this Summer, Congress passed a large Reconciliation Bill, the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which increased reference prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops. The Bill also enhanced certain aspects of the PLC and ARC-CO farm program choices, added support for crop insurance premiums, and included higher loan rates for crops that receive FSA Marketing Assistance Loans. The Reconciliation Bill also reinstated many tax provisions that are favorable to farm families and continued some of the depreciation deductions that farmers have benefitted from in recent years. 
The panelists on the forums and some of the other speakers at Farmfest pointed out that the inability of Congress to pass a new Farm Bill created the need to include Title I and crop insurance provisions in the Reconciliation Bill. The last 5-year Farm bill was passed in 2018 and expired at the end of 2023. Congress passed one-year extensions of the current Farm Bill for both the 2024 and 2025 crop years to continue the current Title I commodity programs. Most of the crop statutory reference prices in the current Farm Bill have not changed since the 2014 Farm Bill. The reference prices set the base safety-net for producers of corn soybeans, wheat, and other crops that are enrolled in USDA farm programs. Some Farmfest panel members pointed out that the improved risk protection for farmers was only for farm program crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, and did not provide any “safety-net enhancements for livestock producers or for farm operators that raise specialty crops. 
While most members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation that attended Farmfest saw some benefits from the improved “safety net” and risk management tools for crop producers, there was some disagreement on other aspects of the One Big Beautiful Bill. The biggest disagreement surrounded cuts to USDA Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which is also part of the Farm Bill as Title IV. The Democratic members of Congress pointed out that due to the shortfalls in SNAP funding, some states may need to make the financial difference. The fear is that the added funds needed for the SNAP program by states such as Minnesota may be passed on to counties, which could possibly result in higher property taxes on owned farm land. Members of the Minnesota Republican Congressional pointed out that much of the cutbacks to the SNAP program will come from reducing fraud and overpayments in the SNAP program, and by making sure that all SNAP recipients are legally eligible. 
It is not known what impact the passage of this legislation will have on the development of a new Farm Bill later this year or early next year. There has been very limited discussion of completing a new Farm Bill during the current session of Congress. Besides the Title I and Nutrition Title of the Farm Bill, there are many other Farm Bill Titles and programs that were not addressed by the One Big Beautiful Bill. These include conservation programs, rural development initiatives, USDA direct and guaranteed loan programs to farmers and small businesses, and many more. Some of the Congressional members that participated at Farmfest were optimistic that a Farm Bill might be completed in the coming months; however, if there is not significant activity by Congress on a new Farm Bill in the weeks after Labor Day, we will likely see another on-year extension of the current Farm Bill. 
Poor Farm
Profit Margins
The continued negative or slim margins in crop and hog production, along with the low profitability in farming were a big topic of discussion during the Farmfest forums in 2025. 
Profit margins in crop production have been quite tight in the past two to three years, which is putting some farm operations at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates increased substantially in 2023 and have remained high in 2024 and 2025. At the same time, crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. 
There have been reports of increased farm bankruptcies across the U.S., as well as an increase in farm loan mediation notices in Minnesota in recent months. The short-term crop economic assistance program earlier this year and the current Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, covering crop losses from the 2023 and 2024 crop years, have provided some short-term economic help for crop producers. Most of the farm program and crop insurance enhancements in the One Big Beautiful Bill will not provide any financial assistance to farmers until 2026, so some ag leaders are pointing out that another round of short-term financial assistance might be needed following the 2025 crop year. 
Tariffs and Trade Agreements
The importance of ag exports and potential new trade agreements, as well as the potential impacts of tariffs on farm businesses and the U.S. ag economy, were discussed extensively during the Farmfest forums. There was some positivity surrounding new trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and other countries. However, concern was expressed regarding potential trade disputes with China, as well as tensions between the U.S. and other countries in the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement. Canada, Mexico, and China are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports. Currently China has no 2025 U.S. soybeans booked to be imported in the coming months. In recent weeks, the Trump Administration has proposed much higher tariffs on imports from these countries and many other countries around the World. Not only is there concern regarding the impact that retaliatory tariffs by other counties on U.S. products could have on U.S ag exports, farmers are also worried about increased farm input costs due to the added tariffs on goods entering the U.S. 
Development of
SAF Aviation Fuel
Many agriculture and leaders in the renewable fuel industry have pointed to “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers, some feedstock for SAF production is being imported from other countries. Many farm operators, ag and community leaders, and investors in renewable energy plants, are concerned about government policies related to the development and use of ethanol and other biofuels. Many states in the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, have a very strong and well-established corn-based ethanol industry, which utilizes over 35 percent of the corn produced each year in the United States. In addition to the direct benefits to farmers, renewable energy plants have become cornerstones in rural communities by providing jobs, adding to the local tax base, and enhancing the overall economic vitality of the communities. 
The members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation and the ag leaders that participated in the Farmfest forums in 2025 discussed numerous issues, programs and efforts that affect rural businesses, families, and communities in a variety of ways. In addition to the issues highlighted earlier, other topics discussed during the Farmfest forums included the importance of workforce development through the 2-year and 4-year ag programs at Minnesota colleges and universities, dealing with the economic challenges currently being experienced by rural businesses, family health care access and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of greater Minnesota, infrastructure needs, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The 2025 candidate forums and the other Farmfest forums can be viewed at: https://www.ideaggroup.com/farmfest. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone – (507) 381-7960; E-mail – [email protected]

In the national agriculture news we continue to hear about the excellent crop conditions in many portions of the Corn Belt and Plains States, with the potential for record corn and soybean yields. In the Upper Midwest, crop conditions in most areas this year have been much more favorable than a year ago; however, there were areas that incurred severe storms and heavy rainfall events during late July. There are very minimal areas of drought concerns this year in either the Midwest or the Plains States, which is a sharp contrast from a few years ago. Even though many farmers are quite optimistic about the 2025 corn and soybean yield prospects, they realize that there are still a couple months remaining in the growing season and that a lot can change.
 
Many portions of Minnesota, northern Iowa, and eastern South Dakota received 150 to 200 percent or more of their normal rainfall amounts the month of July. Some locations had record rainfall amounts during the month of July. Fortunately, most of the crops were fairly well advanced when the heavy rainfall occurred, which helped minimize the crop damage. In addition, there were several severe storms in July with strong winds and hail across the Midwest, which did cause some damage to the corn and soybean crop in some locations. The University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca recorded 7.63 inches of rainfall during July, which was 2.9 inches above normal. As of July 31, the Waseca site has received 27 inches of precipitation during 2025, which is nearly 21 percent above normal.
 
Most of the Corn Belt has been receiving timely rainfall during the growing season, which together with above normal temperatures, has resulted in very favorable conditions for crop production. The 2025 growing season in the Upper Midwest started out with normal to slightly earlier-than-normal corn and soybean planting dates in many areas, with some delayed planting in portions of the northern Corn Belt due to cool temperatures and wet field conditions. There was also some later planting in portions of the eastern Corn Belt this year. Normal to above normal temperatures from late May through July has allowed for rapid development of the corn and soybean crop. From May 1 to July 31, the accumulated crop “growing degree units” (GDU’s) at the U of M research site at Waseca were measured nearly 1,643 GDU’s, which is about 8 percent ahead normal at this location. The 2025 GDU total compares to GDU accumulation on July 31st of 1,583 in 2024 and 1,664 in 2023 at the Waseca site.
 
The weekly USDA Crop Report released on July 28 listed the rating of the 2025 U.S. corn crop at 73 percent “good-to-excellent”, which compares to 68 percent a year ago in late July. Only 7 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” on July 31, compared to 10 percent a year ago. There is a wide variation in the “good-to-excellent” crop ratings across the major corn and soybean producing States. The highest “good-to-excellent” corn rating in the primary corn producing States in the U.S. was in Iowa at 87 percent. Some of the other higher crop ratings included “good-to-excellent” ratings of 82 percent in Wisconsin, 79 percent, in Missouri,  77 percent in Nebraska, 76 percent in South Dakota, 74 percent in Minnesota, 72 percent in North Dakota, and 71 percent in Illinois. States with more moderate “good-to-excellent” corn ratings included Ohio at 62 percent and Indiana at 61 percent. A year ago in late July the “good-to-excellent” rating in Minnesota was only 58 percent, compared to the 74 percent rating this year.
 
The latest USDA Crop Report listed 70 percent of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop as “good-to-excellent”, which compared 67 percent at that level in late July a year ago. Wisconsin and Iowa had the highest “good-to-excellent” soybean rating in the Midwest at 84 percent and 82 percent respectively. Other States with very strong late July “good-to-excellent” ratings included Missouri at 75 percent, Nebraska at 75 percent, South Dakota at 73 percent, and Minnesota at 71 percent.. By contrast, the “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings were 65 percent in Illinois, 62 percent in North Dakota, 61 percent in Indiana, and 58 percent in Ohio. Only 6 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” in late July this year, which compares to 8 percent in 2024 and 15 percent in 2023. Only 3 percent of the Iowa soybean crop and 6 percent of the Minnesota crop were rated in the poorer categories.
 
There is not a lot of historical correlation between weekly crop ratings in late July and final corn and soybean yields. Timely August rainfalls and favorable growing conditions can enhance final yield levels in areas that were not severely impacted by the excessive rainfall earlier this year; however, lack of late season rain events can reduce final crop yields in the very dry areas. For example, timely rainfall and favorable growing conditions in August and early September enhanced the final 2022 corn and soybean yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest, as compared to yield expectations in late July. By contrast, dry conditions late in the growing season in the western Corn Belt in both 2023 and 2024 resulted in lower final yields compared to expectations in late July.
 
Farmers and crop consultants are quite optimistic regarding 2025 corn and soybean yield potential in many areas of the Midwest. Most portions of the Corn Belt have adequate to surplus stored soil moisture heading into August, which should help crops sustain growth during any short-term dry spells. The latest “U.S. Drought Monitor”, released on July 31st showed very little drought concern in the primary corn and soybean production areas on the U.S. The only areas listed as “abnormally dry” or “moderate drought” were southern and western Nebraska, south central and southwest South Dakota, and extreme northwest Minnesota and adjoining portions of North Dakota. There was also a small drought area in northern Illinois and central Michigan.
 
Some private companies will have Midwest crop tours later in August which may provide some indicators regarding 2025 corn and soybean yield trends in the region, which will allow for some early projections for total U.S. corn and soybean production in 2025. These crop tours tend to concentrate on the core areas of the Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Southern Minnesota, and Southeast South Dakota, which account for a large percentage of the U.S. corn and soybean production each year. The crop tours can give us some guidance on anticipated 2025 U.S. corn and soybean yields and total production. However, given the wide variation in crop conditions across the Midwest, we will likely not have solid U.S. yield and production estimates until well into the harvest season this Fall.
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

Many times people wonder about the history of the educational forums at Farmfest. Actually, 2025 will mark the thirty-eighth anniversary of educational forums at Farmfest. The forums actually started in 1988, when Farmfest was held near Lake Crystal, which was a year of a major drought in Minnesota and the Midwest. Current Farmfest Forum Coordinator Kent Thiesse worked with the late Marlyn Buss, former owner and manager of Farmfest, to bring in crop and weather specialists from the University of Minnesota, as well as other crop consultants and grain marketing specialists, to discuss various topics related to the drought that year. After a successful first year, the forums have continued in every year since 1988, including for five years at Austin, MN (1990-1994) and at the current site near Redwood Falls, MN from 1995 until the present time.
 
Ag trade issues, the large reconciliation bill recently passed by Congress, the future of renewable energy, and workforce development initiatives will be key topics to be featured during the Farmfest Forums in 2025. These topics and more will be highlighted during the educational forums at Farmfest on August 5, 6 and 7 in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center at the Gillfillan Estate near Redwood Falls. Farmfest is coordinated by IDEAg Group, LLC, a subsidiary of American Farm Bureau Federation.
 
The feature forum at 10:30 am on Tuesday, August 5 is titled: “Developing a Reliable Safety Ag Policy Net”, which will include four members of Minnesota’s Congressional delegation. The forum will include discussions on the Title I and crop insurance provisions in the Reconciliation Bill that was recently passed by Congress, as well as the future prospects for passing a new Farm Bill, and the potential need for another round of farm economic assistance later in 2025. The forum panel will include Second District Congresswoman Angie Craig, Ranking member of the U.S. House Ag Committee, and First District Congressman Brad Finstad, who also is on the House Ag Committee, along with Seventh District Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach and Eighth District Congressman Pete Stauber, The forum will be moderated by Mark Dorenkamp, Brownfield Ag News Anchor.
 
Tuesday, August 5 will start out with a forum at 9:30 am that is titled: “How Artificial Intelligence is Reshaping Agriculture”, which is a topic that has created a lot of interest among farmers and the agriculture industry. The forum will be moderated by Zach Johnson, the “Millennial Farmer”, Presenters on the forum panel will include Ken O/Brien, Agronomy Innovation Leader for Corteva, and Don Scriber, with the TeraClear firm, which is a leader in drone technology.
 
U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar and Minnesota Ag Commissioner Thom Petersen will headline the feature forum on Tuesday afternoon August 5 at 1:15 pm that is titled: “Building a Sustainable Future for Midwest Agriculture”. They will be joined by Charlotte Lollar, Director of Sustainable Aviation Fuel for Delta Airlines and Julia Silvis, Vice President of the Minnesota Sustainable Aviation Fuel Hub, along with Minnesota farm leaders Dan Glessing, President of Minnesota Farm Bureau and Gary Wertish, President of Minnesota Farmers Union. Jerry Groskruetz, KDHL Farm Director, will serve as moderator for the forum. This forum will focus on the current economic challenges facing crop and livestock producers, enhancing support for beginning farmers, the future direction of conservation and carbon sequestration programs, as well as the current status of E15 ethanol, SAF fuel, 45Z, and other renewable energy initiatives.
 
 
 
As has been tradition for several years at Farmfest, Wednesday August 6 will kick-off with the free pancake breakfast from 8 to 10 am in the Minnesota Farm Bureau Tent on the north end of the Farmfest site, which is sponsored by MN Farm Bureau. Another highlight in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center on Wednesday morning, August 6 at 9:15 am will be the “Farmfest Ag Outlook Forum”, featuring an update on current crop conditions, growing season weather, and grain marketing strategies. The outlook forum speakers will include Kurt Blomgren, Minnesota State FSA Director, Dave Nicolai, University of Minnesota Crops Extension Educator, Brian Werner, Minnesota Biofuels Director, Mark Schultz, Grain Marketing Analyst with Northstar Commodities, and Dan Glessing, MN Farm Bureau President.
 
The feature forum on August 6 at 10:30 am is titled: “Beyond the Trade Deficit: Rethinking Trade Balance and Opportunities”. The forum will include discussions on ag trade deficits, the impact of tariffs on both ag exports and imports, and opportunities for new trade agreements. The forum panel will include Jorge Cicero from the Mexican Consulate in St. Paul, MN, along other Minnesota ag leaders, including Randy Spronk, Past President of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, Chad Willis, Past Chair of the U.S. Grains Council, and Darin Johnson, Minnesota Soybean Growers Association President. The forum will be moderated by Don Wick, Farm Director for the Red River Farm Network.
 
The afternoon forum at 1:15 pm on August 6 is titled: “The Future Outlook for Minnesota’s Agricultural Higher Education & Workforce”, which will be moderated by Blois Olson, WCCO Radio Political Analyst. The panel will include: Dr. Hara Charlier, President of Central Lakes College, Mary Holz-Clause, Chancellor at the University of Minnesota Crookston, Brian Buhr, Dean of the University of Minnesota College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Science, Bev Durgan, Dean of University of Minnesota Extension, and Keith Olander, Executive Director of MNSCU Ag Centric. The panel will focus on recent joint workforce enhancement efforts between the University of Minnesota and the MNSCU system, as well as ongoing educational programs in higher education, outreach efforts through U of M Extension, and the Farm Business Management program in Minnesota.
 
Since the late 1990’s, Farmfest has been the host for the University of Minnesota “Farm Family of the Year Recognition Program” Over 80 County farm families of the year from throughout Minnesota will be honored at this year’s event on Thursday, August 7 at 1:15 p.m. Earlier on Thursday, August 7 at 10:45 am, the “Farmfest Women in Ag Event” will be held, where the 2025 “Farmfest Woman Farmer of the Year” will be announced.
 
As usual, Farmfest will feature the latest innovations and advancements in farm machinery and equipment, numerous exhibits in the Ag Tents, entertainment, and of course plenty of food choices. There are also some excellent informational forums and cattle chute demonstrations in the Livestock Tent each day, which will be newly located this year to the southwest corner of the Farmfest site. For more information on the Farmfest forums, schedule, exhibitors, food vendors, and other information, visit the Farmfest website at: Farmfest.com.
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

The USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report released on July 11th included a slight decrease in the projected 2025 corn production, based on the small decrease in the estimated 2025 U.S. corn acreage that was in the June 30th USDA Crop Acreage Report. USDA also indicated a slight reduction in the anticipated corn ending stocks for the current 2024-25 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2025. The combination of these factors resulted projected lower corn ending stocks for both the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing year. Corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed very little reaction to the WASDE report and continued to react to favorable growing conditions across much of the Corn Belt, resulting in corn futures prices being down slightly following the release of the report.
Following are some highlights from the July 11th WASDE Report:
CORN
The most encouraging news in the July 11th WASDE report was an increase of 100 million bushels of corn exports in the 2024-25 marketing year. Following a reduction of 75 million bushels in the anticipated corn used for feed in the current marketing year, the result was projected 2024-25 corn ending stocks of 134 billion bushels, which was a decrease of 25 million bushels from a month earlier. The estimated corn ending stocks for 2025-26 in the July WASDE report was 1.66 billion bushels, which was a decline of 90 million bushels from the June estimate. The estimated 2025-26 ending stocks would be an increase of 420 million bushels from the projected corn ending stocks for the current year; however, they would still trail the 2023-24 ending stocks of 1.763 billion bushels.
The July 11th WASDE report used the estimated planted U.S. corn acreage of 95.2 million acres, which matched the acreage in the USDA Crop Acreage Report, and compared to 95.3 million acres in the June WASDE report. USDA also decreased the projected harvested acres of corn for grain in the July report to 86.8 million acres, compared to 87.4 million acres in the June report. USDA left the estimated 2025 U.S. corn yield at 181 bushels per acre, which is unchanged from the June report and would be a record U.S. corn yield. The current record U.S. corn yield is 179.3 bushels per acre, which was set in 2024. The adjusted corn acreage together with the projected record corn yield increased the estimated 2025 corn production to just over 15.7 billion bushels. The projected 2025 total U.S. corn production compares to other recent U.S. corn production totals of 14.87 billion bushels in 2024, 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, and 13.65 billion bushels in 2022.
The total corn usage for 2024-25 is estimated at just over 15.31 billion bushels, which would be an increase of approximately 349 million bushels from the total corn usage for 2023-24. Corn used for ethanol production, corn fed to livestock, and corn export levels for the 2024-25 marketing year are all expected to up slightly from a year earlier. Total U.S. corn usage for 2025-26 is projected at just over 15.4 billion bushels, with most usage categories very similar to the current projected usage levels in 2024-25.
USDA is projecting 2024-25 market year average (MYA) corn price at $4.30 per bushel, which was a decline of 5 cents per bushel from the June WASDE report. USDA is estimating the 2025-26 MYA corn price at $4.20 per bushel, which was the same as a month earlier. The 2024-25 marketing year for corn and soybeans ends on August 31, 2025 and the marketing year for the 2025 crop year begins on September 1, 2025, and continues through August 31, 2026. The current price projections compare to recent national average corn prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20. CBOT corn futures prices closed 3-4 cents per bushel lower following the release on the July 11th report, with December 2025 futures closing at $4.13 per bushel. New crop cash bids for Fall delivery were $3.75 per bushel or lower at many locations in the Upper Midwest.
SOYBEANS
Based on the July 11th WASDE report, USDA is now estimating 2025 U.S. planted soybean acreage at 83.41 million acres, which was a slight decrease from the June estimate and compares to 86.1 million acres in 2024. The record national soybean acreage was 89.2 million acres in 2018. The July 11th report projected a U.S. average soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2025, which was unchanged from the June report and compares to a final national yield of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024. Total U.S soybean production for 2025 is now estimated at just over 4.33 billion bushels, which would be very similar to the final U.S. soybean production of 4.37 billion bushels in 2024, but is still below the record U.S. soybean production of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018.
USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2024-25 at just over 4.38 billion bushels, which is up from just over 4.1 billion bushels of usage in 2023-24. The projected soybean usage for the current marketing year includes increases in both the expected soybean crush level and the projected soybean export level, compared to a year earlier. USDA is now estimating soybean ending stocks at the end of the 2024-25 marketing year that ends on August 31, 2025 to be at 350 million bushels, which would be very similar to the carryout level of 342 billion bushels in 2023-24. USDA is projecting soybean ending stocks to decline by 40 million bushels to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year. The current estimated carryout levels for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing years are still well below the large soybean carryover levels that existed from 2018-2020.
USDA is estimating the national MYA soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing year at $10.00 per bushel, which is an increase of 5 cents per bushel from the June report. The July WASDE report projected the farm-level average MYA soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.10 per bushel, which was lowered by $.15 per bushel from the June report. The current MYA soybean price projections compare to recent final MYA soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23; $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. The CBOT November soybean futures price for the 2025 crop closed at $10.10 per bushel following the release of the WASDE report, with new crop cash bids at many locations in the Upper Midwest at $9.00 to $9.50 per bushel.
WHEAT
Total U.S. wheat production for 2025 is estimated at nearly 1.93 billion bushels, which would be very similar to the 1.97 billion bushels in 2024, with both being above the 1.8 billion bushel production level in 2023. The estimated average U.S. wheat yield for 2025 is 52.6 bushels per acre, which was unchanged from the June WASDE report and compares to 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024 and 48.7 bushels per acre in 2023. The total wheat usage level for 2025-26 is projected at just over 2 billion bushels, which compares to usage levels of 1.97 billion bushels in 2024-25 and 1.81 billion bushels in 2023-24. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are now estimated at 890 million bushels, compared to 853 million bushels in 2024-25 and 696 million bushels in 2023-24.
The 2025-26 USDA marketing year for wheat and other small grains runs from June 1, 2025 through May 31, 2026. The July WASDE report estimated the 2025-26 MYA wheat price at $5.40 per bushel, which was unchanged from the price estimate a month ago in the June report. The MYA wheat price estimate for 2025-26 compares to recent final MYA wheat prices of $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25, $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, and $8.83 per bushel in 2022-23. The current wheat price projections are very similar to the low wheat price levels that existed from 2014 to 2020.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

USDA has initiated sign-up for the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) at local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. A total of just over 16 billion dollars will be available for this program, with funding derived from the total of $21 billion in farm disaster assistance funds that were allocated by Congress in December of 2024. SDRP will cover losses from eligible crops for both the 2023 and 2024 crop years. The crop losses will be calculated separately for each year, so eligible producers could receive a payment for each year. SDRP builds off previous federal disaster programs, including the Wildfire and Hurricane Indemnity Program (WHIP+) from 2018-2020, and the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) from 2020-2022. The SDRP sign-up process for “Stage 1” of the program began on July 10 and should be quite simple for most eligible farmers.
 
Standard FSA payment limits will apply to all SDRP payments. The payment limit is $125,000 per eligible individual or entity, which increases to $250,000 if at least 75 percent of the reported gross income on the tax returns are derived from eligible farm-related operations. There are potential higher payment limits for certain specialty crops. There will be a separate payment limit for both 2023 and 2024. Farmers that receive SDRP payments will be required to maintain at least 60 percent federal crop insurance coverage for at least the next two years. Failure to comply with this requirement will require full repayment of the SDRP payment plus interest.
 
“Stage 1” of SDRP will focus on farmers with crops in 2023 and 2024 that had a federal crop insurance policy in place, or had crops that were enrolled in the Noninsured Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) in 2023 and 2024. To qualify for “Stage 1”, farmers must have received a crop insurance indemnity payment or a NAP payment tied to a qualifying disaster in 2023 or 2024. Qualifying disasters include floods, wildfires, hurricanes, freezes, excessive moisture, heat, and qualifying drought.  Eligibility for drought losses is restricted to counties that experienced a drought level of “D3” or higher at in 2023 or 2024, or in counties that were at a “D2” drought level for eight or more consecutive weeks, based on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. A county must be listed as eligible for the SDRP due to drought, in order for individual farmers to qualify for SDRP payments due to drought.
 
Producers must exhibit a qualifying yield loss relative to their APH or NAP yield guarantee, based on the type of disaster listed, to qualify for SDRP payments for 2023 or 2024. Due to a substantial decline in the final harvest price for some crops compared to the Spring base prices in 2023 and 2024, it may have been possible for farmers with revenue insurance policies to receive crop insurance indemnity payments without a decline in yield below APH levels. For further clarification on this requirement, producers should consult their crop insurance agent.
 
Stage 2” for the SDRP will be announced later this summer, probably in early-mid September. “Stage 2” will include assistance for losses from uncovered losses, shallow, quality losses, and losses that did not meet the threshold requirements for Stage 1 SDRP payments. The application process for “Stage 2” may be a bit more complicated than the relatively easy sign-up process for “Stage 1” SDRP payments. This is due to “Stage 2” including non-traditional crops and commodities that are normally not covered by crop insurance, as well as the utilization of alternate criteria other than RMA and NAP yield data.
 
Sign-up for “Stage 1” of the SDRP is now underway at local FSA offices. Eligible farmers for Stage 1 of SDRP should receive pre-filled “Stage 1” SDRP application form (Form FSA-526) from their FSA office with the 2023 or 2024 crop insurance (RMA) or NAP yield data already entered. They will then just need to designate the type of disaster that caused the crop loss, verify the data, and sign the form to initiate SDRP payments. SDRP applications must be signed by all parties that share in the crop value. Farmers will need to report any discrepancies in the data to both the FSA office and their crop insurance agent. Farmers will also need to have all other required FSA forms on file at their local FSA office, which are typically already on file if the farmer regularly receives government farm program payments.
The calculation for SDRP payments is quite basic, and is based off of crop insurance RMA APH or NAP yields and actual crop yields for 2023 and 2024. Here is a brief summary for the calculation of SDRP payments:

• Calculate the original crop insurance revenue guarantee (APH yield times the Spring price for the crop).

2024 Spring prices were $4.66/bu. for corn; $11.55/bu. for soybeans; $6.84/bu. for Spring wheat.
2023 Spring prices were $5.91/bu. for corn; $13.76/bu. for soybeans; $8.87/bu. for Spring wheat.
 

• To determine the “Stage 1” SDRP guarantee, multiply the crop insurance revenue guarantee times the following factor, depending on the level of crop insurance coverage:

80-85% coverage = .95
75-79% coverage = .925
70-74% coverage = .90
65-69% coverage = .875
60-64% coverage = .80
CAT coverage = .75
 

• To determine the eligible gross SDRP revenue, subtract the actual crop value (final 2024 or 2023 crop insurance yield times the RMA harvest price) and the “net” crop insurance indemnity payment received (gross payment minus the premiums and administrative fees) from the SDRP guarantee.

2024 harvest prices were $4.16/bu. for corn; $10.03/bu. for soybeans; $5.79/bu. for Spring wheat.
2023 harvest prices were $4.88/bu. for corn; $12.84/bu. for soybeans; $7.97/bu. for Spring wheat.
 

• Then multiply the gross SDRP revenue eligibility times a factor of 35 percent (.35) to arrive at the net SDRP payment amount.

 
Following is a SDRP payment example for 100 acres of corn in 2024, with a 200 bu./A APH yield and an actual 2024 corn yield of 150 bu./A, with an 85% revenue insurance policy, with a premium of $30/A. a $4.66/bu. Spring price and a $4.16/bu. harvest price, with a 35% payment factor:

• Original 2024 crop insurance guarantee = $79,220  (200 bu./A x $4.66/bu. x .85 x 100 A.)

 

• Harvest value of the 2024 crop = $62,400  (150 bu./A x $4.16/bu. x 100 A)

 

• 2024 Crop insurance indemnity payment = $16,820  ($79,220 - $62,400)

 

• Net 2024 indemnity payment = $13,820  ($16,820 - $3.000 crop ins. premiums)

 

• 2024 gross SDRP eligibility = $88,540  (200 bu./A x $4.66/bu. x .95 x 100 A.)

 

• Net 2024 SDRP eligibility = $12,320  ($88,540 - $62,400 - $13,820)

 

• Net 2024 SDRP payment = $4,312  ($12,320 x .35) or ($43.12/A)

 
The SDRP payment will certainly be helpful to farmers that had some financial hardship following significant crop loss in 2023 and 2024 due to drought and other natural disasters. It should be pointed out that the 35 percent payment factor only accounts for a small portion of the losses that were incurred by the farmers that were affected. It is possible that there could be a second smaller SDRP payment later this year, if disaster funds remain after all “Stage 1” and “Stage 2” applications have been finalized. Any farmers with questions or needing clarifications on the SDRC payments should contact their local FSA office.   
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

Many farmers in portions of the Upper Midwest have been dealing with the impacts of severe storms and heavy rains during the month of June. A widespread area of West Central and Northern Minnesota, along with portions of North and South Dakota have been impacted by the tornadoes, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. Some locations in West Central Minnesota have received 12-16 inches of rain or more during the month of June, which has resulted in flash flooding near rivers and streams and considerable standing water in many areas. The result of the severe storms and excessive rainfall has been significant drown-out damage to crops, some loss of livestock, and physical damage to buildings and other property on farm sites. There are some USDA assistance programs to potentially assist producers that are available through the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA).
Following are some of the assistance programs that that could be available through USDA:
• Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) - The LIP program is available to livestock producers that incur damage to livestock due to the tornadoes, flooding, or other natural disasters. This program is intended to aid livestock producers that lost livestock or had livestock sales impacted by the natural disaster. Producers that have livestock-related losses need to submit evidence of the losses to their local FSA office. Livestock producers that experience losses related to tornado or strong wind damage should check with their local FSA office for further details on LIP eligibility.
• Emergency Livestock Assistance Program (ELAP) - The ELAP program for livestock, honeybees, and farm-raised fish to provide eligible producers and compensation for feed and grazing losses. To qualify for ELAP, producers are required to complete a notice of loss and a payment application at their local FSA office. The deadline for 2025 ELAP applications at FSA offices is January 30, 2026. There is a separate Tree Assistance Program (TAP) available through FSA offices for orchard owners that had lost or damaged fruit trees.
• Emergency Relief Program (ERP) - USDA has initiated the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) on several occasions in recent years to provide additional assistance to crop producers with extensive crop losses due to natural disasters. It is expected that the sign-up period will begin very soon for the 2023 and 2024 disaster assistance program. One segment of the ERP program provides payments beyond federal crop insurance coverage to eligible producers, while the other segment of ERP is for crops not covered by federal crop insurance. No ERP program has been announced for the 2025 crop year at this point; however, the crop loss data that is gathered from the local FSA offices and through crop insurance agents is important to determine the need for an ERP program. Payments through the ERP program are typically made after the crop year has been completed and all crop insurance claims have been filed.
• FSA Low-Interest Loans - Producers that are in counties with a primary USDA disaster declaration, including contiguous counties, are eligible for emergency loans through local FSA offices to help them recover from physical and production losses due to natural disasters. These loans can be used be used to replace buildings and equipment, for feed and farm input purchases, and for other farm-related expenses. Many times the emergency loans are at lower interest rates than regular loans and can be amortized for more than one year. It is likely that many counties in Minnesota, North and South Dakota will be included in disaster declarations in the coming weeks, which will make farmers and ranchers in those areas eligible for the FSA emergency loans. Farmers that had damage to grain storage and handling facilities could also utilize the low-interest Farm Storage Facility Loan (FSFL) program to finance repair or replacement costs for those facilities. For more details on the emergency loans and FSFL loans, as well as the loan requirements, producers should contact their local FSA office.
• Report Losses to Local FSA Offices - The local FSA office is the point site to gather disaster-related information and loss data for USDA to determine the need for additional USDA disaster programs. It also important for farmers to report any lost crop acreage, loss of livestock, and physical damage to property from the heavy rainfall and severe storms to local FSA offices, so that they can do an accurate assessment of the damage and put together a request for disaster assistance.
All Farmers need to pay attention to FSA and Crop Insurance Deadlines
Once the crop is planted and we get into mid-Summer, it is easy to overlook some important deadlines at Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices, crop insurance, and other important deadlines. Missing some of these deadlines can be a costly mistake, as many of the program payments and benefits are linked to compliance with these deadlines. Following is a couple of those important deadlines:
• FSA Acreage Certification - The 2025 crop acreage reporting deadline for all Spring planted crops is Monday, July 15 at local FSA offices. Farmers are required to report their 2025 crop acres of corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and other Spring planted crops to FSA offices. This includes crop acreage of hemp and wild rice. The only exception is for crops that were planted after the deadline. In that case, farmers have an additional 15 days to report their crop acreage. Producers also need to report any 2025 prevented planted crop acres to the FSA office by the July 15 deadline. Fall-seeded small grain crops must be reported by November 15, 2024. Farm operators can certify their crop acreage electronically to the FSA office by utilizing “farmers.gov portal”. This FSA portal also allows farmers to have the ability for online farm program enrollment and data submission. For more information on the setting up a FSA portal, farmers should contact their local FSA office or go the FSA website at: https://www.farmers.gov/
• Crop Insurance Acreage Reporting Deadline - The 2025 crop acreage reporting deadline for corn, soybeans, and other Spring planted crops with local crop insurance agents is also Monday, July 15. Farmers are required to report their 2025 crop acres in order to maintain their 2025 crop insurance coverage. This is extremely important in 2025 due to the strong crop insurance guarantees for corn and soybeans, along with the potential for crop production issues in some areas due to late planting, flooding, and other weather-related issues in some areas. Similar to FSA, any 2025 prevented planted acres need to be reported for crop insurance purposes, as well as any crop acres that were replanted this year.
Farm and Rural Stress Assistance
The combination of continued low grain prices, together with the likely crop loss from the recent flooding and natural disasters, is likely to result in reduced farm income levels for some farmers in 2025. This is likely to increase the mental stress level for many farmers and farm families. There are some good resources available to assist farm and rural families in the Upper Midwest States that have been impacted:
• Minnesota - The Minnesota Department of Agriculture has rural and mental health assistance resources available through the following:
“Minnesota Farm and Rural Helpline”- 833-600-2670 Website - https://www.mda.state.mn.us/about/mnfarmerstress
•  North Dakota --- The North Dakota Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources has rural and mental health assistance resources available at: https://www.ndda.nd.gov/. The NDSU Extension Service also has some excellent resources available at: https://www.ndsu.edu/agriculture/ag-hub
• South Dakota - The South Dakota Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources has rural and mental health assistance resources available at: https://danr.sd.gov/
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The old saying “rain makes grain” may hold true in many instances; however, excessive precipitation amounts again this year early in the growing season has caused extensive crop loss in some areas of the Upper Midwest. Portions of West Central and Southern Minnesota have been impacted by severe storms and excessive rainfall amounts in recent weeks. This has caused considerable drown-out areas in some fields, as well as crop damage to the remaining crop in many fields. In addition, severe storms have caused considerable hail damage to crops in some locations in the Upper Midwest, as well as tornadoes and strong winds that have damaged grain bins and farm buildings.
 
Portions of West Central Minnesota have received 200 percent or more of their normal rainfall amount for the month of June during a 10-day period in mid-June. Many locations in the Upper Midwest have had rainfall amounts during the month of June that are well above normal. Some locations in West Central Minnesota received 6-10 inches of rain or more during a 3-day period in mid-June, and have received additional rainfall since that time. There was also a large area of eastern South Central Minnesota that received excessive rainfall amounts during that period. Soils in the impacted areas of the region are totally saturated and drainage systems are at capacity, so any amount of excessive rainfall can quite rapidly result in considerable standing water in crop fields. In affected areas, the primary crop loss has been to existing crops that had already been planted in 2025.
 
The heavy rainfall in 2025 have been more localized in nature than the large major rainfall events in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa in 2024 that caused major flooding and crop loss. As of June 23, the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca had received just over 4 inches of rainfall during the month of June, which compares to a normal average June rainfall of 5.32 inches. For the year, total precipitation at the Waseca site is just over 16 inches, or about 1.8 inches below normal. By comparison, the research center at Waseca received 12.45 inches of rainfall during June in 2024, and received a total of over 19 inches of precipitation in May and June last year. Even though the June rainfall at the Waseca research facility is slightly below normal, just a few miles away in extreme Southern Minnesota, some areas have received 8-10 inches of rainfall or more during June.
 
In addition to the crop loss from the excess precipitation, another major concern that is developing as a result of the frequent heavy June rainfall events is the loss or lack of available nitrogen for the growing corn. Much of the nitrogen fertilizer for the 2025 corn crop was applied last Fall or early this Spring, prior to planting. Soil nitrogen losses increase substantially during heavy rainfall events early in the growing season, such as have occurred in the past few weeks. Many corn plants have developed very shallow root systems, which have not been able to access the nitrogen that is deeper in the soil profile. In some cases, farmers planned to side dress the nitrogen after planting, but have been unable to do so due to the continual saturated field conditions. As a result of these situations, there may be a need for supplemental nitrogen applications to maintain normal crop development.
 
Another concern with the persistent wet field conditions is timely herbicide applications for weed control. Producers that were relying totally on post-emergence herbicides for weed control have had difficulty getting these products applied in a timely fashion, which is resulting in strong weed pressure in some fields. We have already passed the time window for allowable applications of dicamba herbicide in soybeans in many areas, as well as for some other post-emergence herbicides used in corn and soybeans. Producers should contact their agronomist or crop consultant for further considerations regarding additional nitrogen for the 2025 corn crop, as well as for late season post-emergence herbicide options for this year’s crop.
 
 
The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on June 19 shows a growing area of drought conditions in much of Nebraska and South Dakota, as well as in parts of western and southern Iowa. Portions of southwest Minnesota were also listed with some level of drought concern; however the overall drought footprint in Minnesota has diminished considerably in the past month or so. As of June 15, the U of M Southwest Research and Outreach Center at Lamberton, Minnesota had recorded only 3.44 inches of precipitation from May 1 through June 15, which was about 2 inches below the normal precipitation for the early portion of the growing season. The stored soil moisture was at 6 inches in the top 5 feet of the soil profile at the Lamberton site, which is just slightly lower than the long term average for mid-June. A year ago, the stored soil moisture level in June at Lamberton was at the maximum capacity of 9.1 inches. At this point, the rainfall at Lamberton has been adequate and very timely for good crop growth and development.
 
Warmer weather during the last half of June has resulted in rapid crop growth and development in most portions of the Corn Belt. As of June 23, the accumulated growing degree units (GDU’s) at the Waseca Research Center since May 1 totaled 774 GDU’s, which is slightly ahead of normal and is very similar to the GDU figures in late June in 2024. In areas that have avoided the heavy rainfall events and crop loss in June, the adequate moisture and warmer temperatures have resulted in favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans in most areas of the Midwest.
 
The weekly USDA Crop Condition Report on June 16 listed 72 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 68 percent of the U.S. soybean crop as “good to excellent”. The crop rating has remained fairly steady in recent weeks; however, there is some concern due to developing dryness in portions of the Western Corn Belt and the Central Plains States. The “good-to-excellent” crop ratings for Iowa were at 84 percent for corn and 80 percent for soybeans, while Minnesota was at 75 percent for corn and 74 percent for soybeans. The June 16 “good-to-excellent” crop ratings for both corn and soybeans were also near the U.S. average in Illinois, Nebraska, and Missouri. About the only major corn and soybean producing States that are slightly lower than the national average “good-to-excellent” rating for corn and soybeans were South Dakota, Indiana, and Ohio. Only 5 percent of the corn and soybeans in the U.S. were rated as “poor” in the June 16 report.
 
Crop Insurance Considerations
Farmers in areas that received excessive rainfall during June have been contemplating replant decisions. These decisions may vary from farm-to-farm depending on the type of Federal Crop Insurance policy and the level of insurance coverage that a farm operator is carrying for 2025. Producers with a “replant clause” on their crop insurance coverage could be eligible for some compensation for replanting following crop losses from heavy rains, hail, or other natural causes. To qualify for replant compensation, farmers must have a loss area of at least 20 acres, or 20 percent of the total acres in an insured farm unit, whichever is less. With “enterprise units”, smaller areas of fields may be grouped together to reach that threshold level. The crop insurance replant provision can only be exercised once in a given year on the same crop acres.
 
Producers need to report prevented planted and replant acres need their crop insurance agent. The insurance agents can also be a good resource regarding final planting dates, prevented planting options, and replant considerations. Every producer’s situation is different regarding late and prevented planting options. As a result, the best option will vary considerably from farm-to-farm, depending on differences in yield potential and insurance coverage. In addition to their crop insurance agent, farmers should consult with their agronomist, farm management advisor, and ag lender regarding the best options for replant decisions. The choice that is made could result in a difference of thousands of dollars by year-end, depending on the resulting crop production and crop insurance coverage.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

Over the years, the swine industry has long been a source of farm income stability for many farmers and in many rural communities; however, in recent years profitability in hog production has been much more mixed and has been negative for many producers. The swine industry was hit hard by the U.S. trade war with China in 2018 and 2019 and then by the Covid pandemic in 2020. In recent years, producers have dealt with higher input costs and interest rates, disease pressure that has reduced production levels, and market prices that have struggled to stay at profitable levels for long periods. In addition, they have dealt with the domestic pork sales problems caused by the implementation of the Proposition 12 legislation in California, as well as another looming trade war with China, Mexico, and other countries. These issues have especially impacted modest sized swine farrowing and finishing operations in the Midwest.
A comprehensive 2021 swine industry study titled “The United States Pork Industry 2021 Report”, involving USDA and several Universities, analyzed the economic impact of the pork industry on the U.S. economy, as well as looking at the economic impact for individual States. According to the Study, there were more than 66,000 pork producers in the U.S. in 2021 that marketed over 140 million hogs valued at over $28 billion in gross receipts. The value-added from the hog marketing’s resulted in a total of $35 billion in personal income and added $57 billion to the GDP in the U.S. The study estimated 610,000 jobs in the U.S. can be linked to the overall impacts of the pork industry. Based on recent pork industry data, it was estimated that the forty largest swine farrowing operations in the U.S. owned or managed over 70 percent of the swine breeding herd at the end of 2024.
Economic Challenges for Hog Farmers
Many hog producers lost $20 to $40 per head on every pig marketed during first half of 2023, after some showed negative profit margins in 2022. Obviously, farm operations can only withstand those types of losses for a given time before they need to make some decisions regarding their future in hog production. In the past two years, the number of producers exiting the hog business has increased significantly due to the low profit margins. In the short-term, the liquidation of mother sows sent even more hogs to market and added to the over-supply of pork in the U.S., putting even more downward pressure on already depressed market hog prices. In the bigger picture, the reduced sow numbers should result in reductions in the total hog inventory and help strengthen market prices.
An analysis of farm financial data through the University of Minnesota FINBIN farm management system for hog producers throughout the United States indicated some of the financial challenges that producers are facing. Most of the producers in the FINBIN analysis would be considered modest-size producers. The data showed that the average hog producer made an average net return to labor and management of only $.53 per head on every hog produced through a weaning-to-finish management system during an 7-year period from 2018-2024. The range was from an average positive profit margin of $13.75 per head in 2021 to a loss of ($18.18) per head in 2023. Other negative profit years per head were ($11.84) in 2018 and ($3.25) in 2022, while other positive return years per head were +.86 in 2019, +$12.85 in 2020, and +$7.88 in 2024. The FINBIN data also showed that the average direct expenses to produce a market hog from weaning to finish increased from near $90 per head from 2018-2020 to over $125 per head in 2022 and 2023, dropping back to  near $114 per head in 2024. 
For the same 7-year period (2018-2024), the FINBIN data showed an average return to labor and management of $9.34 per litter produced for farrow-to weaning hog operations. There was a wide range in profitability from year-to year ranging from a high return of +$48.05 per litter in 2022 to a loss of ($12.09) per litter in 2023, with only a modest recovery to a profit of +$4.17 per litter in 2024. The average number of sows in the FINBIN data was 1,100, with an average of approximately 2,300 litters per year. This would be considered a modest-sized farrowing operation in today’s U.S. hog industry. 
 
Tariffs and Another Possible Trade War Raises Concern
The on-again/off-again tariff scenario has raised concern among pork producers. They are especially concerned with potential retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. by China and Mexico, the two of the largest export destinations for U.S. pork products. In 2023, the U.S. exported $2.3 billion of pork products to Mexico, $1.4 billion to Japan, and $1.3 billion to China. Approximately 25 percent of the pork produced in the U.S. ends up being exported, so another trade war with the major export destinations could have major economic implications on the U.S. swine industry. Hog market prices dropped considerably during the last U.S. trade war with China in 2018 and 2019, costing the U.S. pork industry millions of dollars.
Proposition 12 Creates New Challenges for the Pork Industry
The “Farm Animal Confinement Initiative”, or the so-called “Proposition 12” law, was passed by the voters of California in November of 2018. The new law mandated that all whole pork sold in the State of California must come from market hogs that were born from sows that had had housing of at least 24 square feet of floor space with the ability to turn around, meaning that it would ban the use of sow gestation crates in hog facilities. The Proposition 12 law went into effect in on July 1, 2023, and applies to all uncooked pork that is sold is sold in California, whether it was raised in California or raised in any other portion of the U.S. or other countries. California accounts for somewhere between 10-15 percent of the total pork consumption in the U.S, based on various estimates; however, the State produces far less than one percent of the pork that is consumed within its borders. This means that most of the fresh pork being sold in California is likely being raised and processed in Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and other Midwest locations.
Most commercial sow gestation units in the Midwest currently have 18-20 feet of floor space per sow and utilize gestation crates that allow for individual customized feeding, breeding and care of the sows. Increasing the requirement to the new California standard of 24 square feet increases the space requirement per sow by 25-35 percent. This means that a producer can house 25-30 percent less sows in the same area of building space and produce 25-30 percent fewer hogs each year, compared to traditional sow housing systems. In addition, converting existing sow housing facilities to the new required standards can be quite expensive and there will likely be added labor expense to handle the sows in the converted sow housing style. Producers have no guarantee that they will receive any added value for the market hogs that are being sold to be processed for pork sales in California.
Bottom-line on Profitability for Hog Producers
At the farm level, the low profit margins have been driven by modest market hog prices, higher input costs, rising interest rates, and swine disease challenges. Some small-to-medium size swine producers have exited the business in the past two years, and more producers may be forced to leave hog production if profit margins do not improve in the next couple of years. In recent months crop producers have received economic assistance payments to offset low crop prices, and some may receive 2023 and 2024 disaster payments in the coming months; however, there have been no assistance payments approved to offset low prices and reduced profit margins for hog producers. It is hoped that some improved risk management “safety-net” provisions for hog producers can be included in the next Farm Bill. Fortunately, profit margins in hog production have improved slightly in the first half of 2025, mainly due to lower feed costs; however, the combination of higher than expected hog numbers and concern over tariffs has resulted in very modest improvement in hog market prices. At the retail level, fresh pork is still a very economical choice for consumers compared to other meat and protein food choices.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

The Continuing Resolution legislation that was passed by Congress in late 2024  included $21 billion in disaster assistance for 2023 and 2024 agricultural crop losses from natural disasters, such as drought, hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, wildfires, excessive rainfall, etc. Recently USDA Ag Secretary, Brooke Rollins, announce some initial details for the disaster programs, which includes assistance for crop and livestock producers. Farmers and ranchers in many portions of the U.S. may qualify for the disaster payments for one or both years, including the Upper Midwest that had areas impacted by drought in 2023 and by excessive rainfall in 2024. The disaster payments will be implemented by local FSA offices during the coming months.
 
Based on comments from Secretary Rollins, details of the 2023 and 2024 disaster assistance program for crops will likely be available by late May. Sign-up for the program at local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices is set to begin by July 7, 2025.  Based on discussions when the legislation was passed, it is assumed that the payment formula will likely be similar to the Economic Relief Program (ERP) payments from 2020 and 2021. These payments would like be based on USDA Risk Management Agency crop insurance data, The RMA data for the 2024 crop year will not be finalized until early June. There may also be a separate disaster program enrollment period later this Summer for crop losses on crops that are not eligible for crop insurance.
 
Based on the previous calculation formula, disaster payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other major commodities would be calculated separately for the 2023 and 2024 crop years, and would likely be based on reported crop insurance yields. The payments would be additional payments over and above the crop insurance indemnity payments that were already paid. The payment formula will likely be based off of a set percentage of the crop insurance revenue guarantee for the year (APH yield x Spring price guarantee) minus the actual crop value (final yield x Fall harvest price),  minus crop insurance indemnity payments that were paid, and then factored by a set percentage. There will likely be separate payment limits for each year of the disaster program, as well as a separate payment limit for the ECAP payments.
 
Update on Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) Payments
Sign-up has begun for the Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments for crop producers started in late March and will continue until the sign-up deadline, which is August 15, 2025. Sign-up for the ECAP program is being administered by the USDA Farm Service Agency, and sign-up for the program can be done either online on the FSA website or in person at local FSA offices. The ECAP payments were implemented to offset low crop commodity prices in late 2023 and 2024, as well as poor profit margins for the producers of most major crops raised in the U.S. Corn, soybeans, wheat, and other farm program crops are eligible for the ECAP payments. The payments are based on the planted acres to a crop in 2024, and also include 50 percent of prevented planted acres last year. Complete ECAP details and sign-up details are available on the following website: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/emergency-commodity-assistance-program.
 
As of May 5, USDA had processed over 472,000 ECAP applications and paid out over $7.3 billion in ECAP payments. It is estimated that over 85 percent of the eligible acres have been enrolled in the ECAP program. Approximately $3 billion in ECAP payments has been paid for 2024 corn acres, and $2 billion for soybean acres, with about $933 million for wheat acres and $705 million for cotton acres. There was about $500 million paid for all other eligible crops, most which are grown regionally and have small national acreage totals. Producers in Iowa had received the most ECAP payments at $688 million, followed by Illinois at $630 million, Texas at $602 million, North Dakota at $554 million, Kansas at $516 million, Minnesota at $508 million, and Nebraska at $495 million. The initial ECAP payment that is being distributed is 85 percent of the total calculated ECAP payment, so there is a possibility that eligible producers may receive another smaller ECAP payment later this year.
Potential for 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Crop producers in some areas of the Midwest are wondering about the potential for 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payments later this year. Many farmers in the region were enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for the 2024 crop year, rather than the “price-only” Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. To earn a PLC payment for 2024 for a given crop, the final MYA price needs to drop below the 2024 crop reference price. 2024 ARC-CO payments are based on the final county revenue (2024 county ave. yield x the final MYA price), compared to the 2024 benchmark (BM) revenue (2024 county BM yield x BM price x .86). Any 2024 PLC or ARC-CO payments will be paid after October 1, 2025.
 
The marketing year to determine the 2024 market year average (MYA) prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025. The marketing year to calculate MYA prices for wheat and other small grain crops is from June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025. The 12-month national average MYA price for a given crop is based on the monthly average market price received by farm operators across the United States, which is then “weighted” at the end of the year, based on the volume of bushels sold in each month. The USDA MYA price estimates can be tracked on a monthly basis in the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. The next WASDE report will be released on June 12, 2025.
 
Following is an update on the potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
This summary is based on the national average price estimates in the May 12 WASDE report.
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the May WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments, so 2024 PLC payments are not likely. The estimated MYA price is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price, which will likely initiate 2024 ARC-CO payments in many counties with reduced crop yields in 2024.  At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, , and ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield, which will likely include many southern Minnesota counties.
 
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the May WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $9.95 per bushel. This is $.69 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 soybean PLC payments, so 2024 PLC payments are not likely. The estimated MYA price is $1.17 below the 2024 benchmark price, which will likely initiate 2024 ARC-CO payments in many counties with reduced crop yields in 2024.  At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, , and ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county soybean yield that is about 2-3 bushels below the county benchmark yield, which will likely include many counties in Minnesota.
 
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the May WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.50 per bushel. This is at the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments and is $.71 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, a small 2024 PLC payment is still possible, and ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield.
 
For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the ARC-PLC web site at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.  Final county yields for 2024 will be available by early June and will be based on RMA crop insurance data. Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]