Crop Conditions Generally Good Across The U.S.

In the national agriculture news we continue to hear about the excellent crop conditions in many portions of the Corn Belt and Plains States, with the potential for record corn and soybean yields. In the Upper Midwest, crop conditions in most areas this year have been much more favorable than a year ago; however, there were areas that incurred severe storms and heavy rainfall events during late July. There are very minimal areas of drought concerns this year in either the Midwest or the Plains States, which is a sharp contrast from a few years ago. Even though many farmers are quite optimistic about the 2025 corn and soybean yield prospects, they realize that there are still a couple months remaining in the growing season and that a lot can change.
 
Many portions of Minnesota, northern Iowa, and eastern South Dakota received 150 to 200 percent or more of their normal rainfall amounts the month of July. Some locations had record rainfall amounts during the month of July. Fortunately, most of the crops were fairly well advanced when the heavy rainfall occurred, which helped minimize the crop damage. In addition, there were several severe storms in July with strong winds and hail across the Midwest, which did cause some damage to the corn and soybean crop in some locations. The University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca recorded 7.63 inches of rainfall during July, which was 2.9 inches above normal. As of July 31, the Waseca site has received 27 inches of precipitation during 2025, which is nearly 21 percent above normal.
 
Most of the Corn Belt has been receiving timely rainfall during the growing season, which together with above normal temperatures, has resulted in very favorable conditions for crop production. The 2025 growing season in the Upper Midwest started out with normal to slightly earlier-than-normal corn and soybean planting dates in many areas, with some delayed planting in portions of the northern Corn Belt due to cool temperatures and wet field conditions. There was also some later planting in portions of the eastern Corn Belt this year. Normal to above normal temperatures from late May through July has allowed for rapid development of the corn and soybean crop. From May 1 to July 31, the accumulated crop “growing degree units” (GDU’s) at the U of M research site at Waseca were measured nearly 1,643 GDU’s, which is about 8 percent ahead normal at this location. The 2025 GDU total compares to GDU accumulation on July 31st of 1,583 in 2024 and 1,664 in 2023 at the Waseca site.
 
The weekly USDA Crop Report released on July 28 listed the rating of the 2025 U.S. corn crop at 73 percent “good-to-excellent”, which compares to 68 percent a year ago in late July. Only 7 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” on July 31, compared to 10 percent a year ago. There is a wide variation in the “good-to-excellent” crop ratings across the major corn and soybean producing States. The highest “good-to-excellent” corn rating in the primary corn producing States in the U.S. was in Iowa at 87 percent. Some of the other higher crop ratings included “good-to-excellent” ratings of 82 percent in Wisconsin, 79 percent, in Missouri,  77 percent in Nebraska, 76 percent in South Dakota, 74 percent in Minnesota, 72 percent in North Dakota, and 71 percent in Illinois. States with more moderate “good-to-excellent” corn ratings included Ohio at 62 percent and Indiana at 61 percent. A year ago in late July the “good-to-excellent” rating in Minnesota was only 58 percent, compared to the 74 percent rating this year.
 
The latest USDA Crop Report listed 70 percent of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop as “good-to-excellent”, which compared 67 percent at that level in late July a year ago. Wisconsin and Iowa had the highest “good-to-excellent” soybean rating in the Midwest at 84 percent and 82 percent respectively. Other States with very strong late July “good-to-excellent” ratings included Missouri at 75 percent, Nebraska at 75 percent, South Dakota at 73 percent, and Minnesota at 71 percent.. By contrast, the “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings were 65 percent in Illinois, 62 percent in North Dakota, 61 percent in Indiana, and 58 percent in Ohio. Only 6 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” in late July this year, which compares to 8 percent in 2024 and 15 percent in 2023. Only 3 percent of the Iowa soybean crop and 6 percent of the Minnesota crop were rated in the poorer categories.
 
There is not a lot of historical correlation between weekly crop ratings in late July and final corn and soybean yields. Timely August rainfalls and favorable growing conditions can enhance final yield levels in areas that were not severely impacted by the excessive rainfall earlier this year; however, lack of late season rain events can reduce final crop yields in the very dry areas. For example, timely rainfall and favorable growing conditions in August and early September enhanced the final 2022 corn and soybean yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest, as compared to yield expectations in late July. By contrast, dry conditions late in the growing season in the western Corn Belt in both 2023 and 2024 resulted in lower final yields compared to expectations in late July.
 
Farmers and crop consultants are quite optimistic regarding 2025 corn and soybean yield potential in many areas of the Midwest. Most portions of the Corn Belt have adequate to surplus stored soil moisture heading into August, which should help crops sustain growth during any short-term dry spells. The latest “U.S. Drought Monitor”, released on July 31st showed very little drought concern in the primary corn and soybean production areas on the U.S. The only areas listed as “abnormally dry” or “moderate drought” were southern and western Nebraska, south central and southwest South Dakota, and extreme northwest Minnesota and adjoining portions of North Dakota. There was also a small drought area in northern Illinois and central Michigan.
 
Some private companies will have Midwest crop tours later in August which may provide some indicators regarding 2025 corn and soybean yield trends in the region, which will allow for some early projections for total U.S. corn and soybean production in 2025. These crop tours tend to concentrate on the core areas of the Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Southern Minnesota, and Southeast South Dakota, which account for a large percentage of the U.S. corn and soybean production each year. The crop tours can give us some guidance on anticipated 2025 U.S. corn and soybean yields and total production. However, given the wide variation in crop conditions across the Midwest, we will likely not have solid U.S. yield and production estimates until well into the harvest season this Fall.
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]