Crop Development Mixed Across The Upper Midwest

The Spring planting season of 2026 has been a mixed scenario for farmers across the Upper Midwest. Favorable weather conditions from late April until mid-May allowed for corn and soybean planting to be completed in many areas of the Midwest; however, frequent rainfall events during much of May has slowed planting progress in some portions on the eastern and southern Corn Belt. A cooler than normal weather pattern during the first half of May slowed corn and soybean development in the Upper Midwest. Many areas were also negatively impacted by very strong winds and dust storms in mid-May, as well as some isolated frost damage and severe weather..
 
Total rainfall amounts across the primary crop production regions of the U.S. during the month of May were quite variable. Most areas received some precipitation during May, with portions of the Eastern Corn Belt getting excess rainfall that delayed planting and caused some crop loss. On the other hand, some portions of the Western Corn Belt received less than normal rainfall in May, and continue to have some drought concern as we advance through the 2026 growing season.
 
As of May 27, the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center at Waseca had recorded only 1.85 inches of rainfall during May, with over 70 percent of the precipitation occurring from May 17 and 18. The May rainfall in Waseca was 2.62 inches below the long-term average monthly precipitation for May. The Waseca location received 2.67 inches of precipitation in April, which was .63 inches below normal. Total 2026 precipitation at the Waseca location was 8.25 inches, which is 4.24 inches below normal. As of May 27, the U of M Southwest Research and Outreach Center at Lamberton had received only 1.07 inches of rainfall during May, which is over 2 inches below normal. This followed an April precipitation total of 3.21 inches, which was slightly above normal. Total stored soil measurements at the Lamberton site on May 15 were very near the long-term average and were improved over stored soil moisture levels in late May a year ago.
 
A large portion of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, North and South Dakota dealt with strong winds and a couple of severe dust storms in mid-May. The dust storms resulted in light to moderate damage to thousands of acres of crop land in the affected States. Some areas of the Upper Midwest also had light to moderate frost on a few dates during mid-May, as well as some hail associated with severe storms. A majority of the corn and soybeans in the affected region were small enough to have very little impact from the extreme winds, frost or hail; however, there were some isolated reports of replanting being necessary on earlier planted corn and soybeans. There was also some reported damage to small sugar beet plants in portions of western Minnesota.
 
Based on the May 26 USDA Crop Progress Report, 86 percent of the corn in the U.S. was planted, which compares to a 5-year average of 83 percent planted by that date. As of May 27, corn planting was over 90 percent completed and corn emergence was ahead of normal in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota however, corn planting completion was at only 63 percent in Ohio, 75 percent in Mchigan,76 percent in Indiana, and 82 percent in Wisconsin. The May 27 USDA Report showed that 79 percent of the soybeans nationwide were planted, which is well-above the planting pace in 2025, and compares to a 5-year average soybean planting rate of 68 percent by that date. Similar to corn, soybean planting well ahead of normal in most of the major soybean-producing States in the Upper Midwest but trailed the normal planting pace in portions of the eastern Corn Belt.
 
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on May 28 showed that over 77 percent of the U.S. was experiencing some level of drought, with over 60 percent of the country in in the “moderate: drought category or worse. About the only areas of the U.S. with very little drought are the Eastern Corn Belts and the Great Lakes States. In Nebraska, 95 percent of the state was in some level of drought, with extreme drought conditions dominating the western two-thirds of the State. Higher levels of drought conditions also existed in Kansas and South Dakota, along with expanding drought areas in southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa.
 
Based on the May 26 USDA Crop Progress Report, 38 percent of the primary crop production area in the U.S. reported “short” or “very short” top soil moisture levels, with the highest percentages reported in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Kansas. The national crop rating that was released on May 26 indicated that 44 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated “poor” to “very poor”, with only 27 percent of the crop rated “good” to “excellent”. The winter wheat conditions were even more severe in Nebraska and Kansas, with “poor” to “very poor” ratings 82 percent and 55 percent. The late-May top soil moisture levels in most other areas of the Midwest were closer to long-term averages, including some areas of surplus moisture in the eastern Corn Belt.  Portions of the western Corn Belt have received some much-needed rainfall during the last week of May.
 
The level of growing degree units (GDU’s), which measure growing conditions for corn and soybeans, was near normal for the month of May at many locations in the Midwest; however, most areas dealt with very extreme GDU accumulation, from very low in early May to quite high at the end of the month.  A total of 374 GDU’s had accumulated at the U of M Research Center at Waseca since May 1, which was 54 GDU’s ahead of normal accumulation, and compares to 346 GDU’s accumulated by May 31, 2025. As of May 26, the GDU accumulation during the month of May at the U of M Research Center at Lamberton was as slightly ahead of normal. Much of the corn in the Upper The very warm temperatures at the end of May and the first few days of June should help push crop development ahead of normal, except in areas with limited moisture, as well as in locations with replant acres or late planted row crops.
 
Given the better than average start to the 2026 growing season in many key corn producing States, there is certainly potential that the 2026 U.S. corn yield could meet or exceed the U.S. “trendline” corn yield near 183 bushels per acre.. However, the growing drought area in the Plains States and large area of abnormally dry conditions in other portions the Midwest has raised some concerns regarding the final 2026 corn yield levels in some areas. The other factor besides the national average crop yields that will affect final 2026 U.S. corn and soybean production will be the final 2026 planted crop acreage. The March 30 USDA Planting Intentions Report estimated that 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans would be planted in 2026 We should get a much clearer indication of the final corn and soybean planting numbers in the June 30th USDA Crop Acreage Report and the 2026 prevented planted acreage data in July.
 
USDA Announces Farm Program Base Acre Update
Eligible landowners will have the opportunity to increase their crop base acres for potential Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) farm program payments in future years. The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) recently announced that the eligible landowners will receive a notice of possible changes in their crop base acres, and will have from now until August 31, 2026 to finalize the proposed base acre updates. The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) that was signed into law in 2025 provided for several updates to Title I commodity program provisions in the Farm bill. One of these updated allowed for the addition of up to 30 million more farm program base acres, which will be allocated among eligible program crops.
 
The added base acres will be for acres planted to farm program crops that are currently not eligible for farm program benefits. Potential updates to base acres were determined from the actual planted crop acres each year from 2019 to 2023 that were reported to FSA offices, including any prevented planted acres. The base acre update is for added crop base acres and will not impact existing base acres. There will not be an opportunity to change or update existing crop base acres. The new crop base acres will be eligible for farm program benefits for the 2026 crop year; however, no announcement has been made as to when 2026 farm program sign-up will begin. For details on the crop base acre update, landowners can contact their local FSA office or go to the special FSA website at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]