Crop Profitability Reduced In 2025

Profit levels from crop farming across the Midwest will likely be highly variable in 2025, depending on final crop yields, grain marketing decisions, and crop expenses. There were very few opportunities to market corn and soybeans at profitable prices during 2025, and sugar beet producers had one of their worst profit years in dec-ades. Added government farm program payments provided some additional farm income in 2025; however, this did not offset the negative profit margins that many crop farmers have faced. Diversified farm operations that include livestock enterprises, especially beef cattle, have been able to better withstand the financial challenges in crop production. 
According to economic analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) for corn production in 2025, the average farmer would lose over $150 per acre at the estimated national average corn yield of 186 bushels per acre and the projected USDA 2025 market year average (MYA) price of $4.00 per bushel, excluding any traditional or added farm program payments. Based AFBF estimates, the calculated loss for soybeans in 2025 is over $80 per acre, based on the estimated national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per acre and the projected 2025 MYA price of $10.50 per bushel. Sugar beet industry experts are projecting losses of $150-$200 per acre for many sugar beet growers in Minnesota and North Dakota. 
Following is a brief overview of how some of the major factors will likely affect final farm profitability in 2025: 
· 2025 CROP YIELDS 
The reported 2025 corn and soybean yields in most areas of the Upper Midwest were highly variable. This was mainly due to excessive rainfall in some locations early in the growing season and limited rainfall late in some portions of the region later in the year, as well as a significant amount of late-season disease pressure in many areas. Even with that variability, USDA is projecting a record U.S. average corn yield of 186 bushels per acre in 2025, based on the USDA Crop Production Report re-leased on November 14. This surpasses the previous record average corn yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2023. USDA is also projecting a record national average U.S. soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025, which surpasses the previous record yield of 52.0 bushels per acre in 2016. 
Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota, and Wisconsin were all projected to have record average corn yields in 2025, while anticipated corn yields in Minnesota and Ne-braska were just shy of previous record levels. Many farmers in Southern Minnesota and Eastern South Dakota reported some of their best corn yields ever in 2025. Disease pressure from tar spot, southern rust, and other corn diseases limited corn yields for some producers in the central and eastern Corn Belt. Some analysts feel that USDA may lower the 2025 average corn yields in some States in future months, due to the severe yield impacts from these diseases. Soybean yields across the Midwest were quite variable in many areas due to weather issues, as well as some disease pressure. 
· HIGH INPUT COSTS 
Total U.S. farm expenses are estimated at $467.5 billion in 2025, which is an increase $11.9 billion or 2.6 percent from 2024. This follows an increase of $16.7 billion in 2024 as compared to a year earlier. Most 2025 farm expenses for crop inputs, land rent, and operating interest were fairly stable with 2024 expense levels; however, these basic farm expenses are significantly higher than a few years earlier. There have been significant increases in farm expense levels for farm machinery, repairs, supplies, and farm labor in the past couple of years. The continued higher level of crop input costs, together with lower commodity prices, points to the negative profit margins facing crop producers in 2025. It appears that the crop input expense for fertilizer could be considerably higher for the 2026 crop year, along with modest in-creases in seed and chemical costs next year as well. 
· LACK OF GRAIN MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES 
The “new crop” 2025 corn prices in the upper Midwest have not offered many marketing opportunities, with very little movement during the year. The 2025 “new crop” corn prices in Southern Minnesota started the year near $4.10 per bushel and spent much the first six months between $4.00 and $4.25 per bushel, never top-ping $4.40 per bushel. Since early July, local corn prices have remained below $4,00 per bushel at most local grain markets, with local basis levels near $.50 per bush-el below Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) prices, which is at the widest level in recent years. Basis levels in North and South Dakota, as well as in western Minnesota, have been wider yet, resulting in even lower local corn price levels. Many crop producers likely had corn breakeven costs of $4.75-$5.25 per bushel for the 2025 crop year at average corn yields on cash rented land. As a result, most farmers have not able to “lock-in” a forward price at a profitable level on their 2025 corn crop. USDA is currently estimating an average “on-farm” corn price of $4.00 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026. 
The 2025 “new crop” soybean price in southern Minnesota started the year near $9.50 per bushel, and spent most of the year between $9.25 to $9.75 per bushel, until late October. Soybean prices have improved by $.75 to $1.00 per bushel since late October following the announcement of the new trade agreement with China. How-ever, some farmers were not able to benefit from the improved soybean prices, as a result of having already sold their 2025 soybean crop following harvest for needed cash flow purposes or due to a lack of grain storage. The 2025 cost of production for soybeans on cash rented land is likely near $10.75 to $11.50 per bushel at average yields for many producers. USDA is currently estimating an average “on-farm” soybean price of $10.50 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year; however, local soybean prices in many portions of the Upper Midwest have trailed that level in the past few weeks. 
· ADDITIONAL FARM PROGRAM PAYMENTS 
Government farm program payments will play a significant role in cash receipt levels for many crop producers in 2025. USDA estimates that approximately $40.5 bil-lion in direct government payments will be paid to farmers in 2025, which would be an increase of 300 percent from $9.6 billion in 2024. The 2025 government farm payments would represent nearly 25 percent of the projected total U.S. net farm income for the year. The 2025 payment level would be the second highest level in the past few decades, trailing only the $46 billion that was paid out in 2020, resulting from large ad hoc support payments due to COVID and the first China trade war in 2018 and 2019 The large federal government farm program payments in 2025 were the result of one-time 2024 economic assistance (ECAP) payments, 2023 and 2024 disaster assistance (SDRP) payments, and large 2024 regular farm program payments (ARC-CO) for corn and soybeans in some areas due to very low crop yields in 2024. There were also the regular CRP, dairy margin coverage, and other traditional government payments that some farmers received. The projected gov-ernment payments did not include 2025 crop insurance indemnity payments; however, those payments will likely be much lower for most farmers in 2025 due to re-duced guarantees and improved crop yields. 
BOTTOM LINE 
It is likely that many corn and soybean producers will have negative profit margins in 2025, even some farmers that had above average crop yields this year. Producers with below average crop yields in 2025 will likely have very poor profit levels for the year, depending on their crop insurance coverage. As usual, there will be a wide variation in farm profitability, not only as the result of the crop yields, but also based on crop and farm expense levels, grain marketing decisions, and the amount of farm debt that needs to be serviced. Farm operators that are facing serious year-end cash flow shortages are encouraged to consult their farm management advisors and ag lenders sooner than later to look at ways to address the situation. The very tight or negative profit margins from crop production in 2025 reinforces the need for additional financial assistance for crop producers from the federal government in the coming months. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]