Key Ag Policy Issues Ahead In 2026

We have nearly completed the first year of the second Trump Administration, as well as having new leadership in the U.S. Senate, along with some changes in lead roles on the Congressional Agriculture Committees. In 2025, we saw the passage of a large reconciliation bill, the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”, the initiation of several ad-hoc farm program payments, and the lengthy shutdown of the federal government in October and early November. We also had several actions implemented by the Trump Administration in 2025 that had an impact on farmers and the agriculture industry. As we look ahead to 2026, there are many key issues and possible policy initiatives that could potentially affect the agriculture industry. There is not total agreement among ag leaders and members of Congress regarding some of the policy initiatives that are being considered.
The leadership of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as key Congressional Committees such as the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, will have a major influence on future agriculture and energy issues. Republican Senator John Thune from South Dakota, who has strong ties to agriculture and energy policy, is the current leader of the U.S. Senate. Arkansas Senator John Bozeman is the Chair of the U.S. Senate Ag Committee, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar is in the Democratic leadership role as the Ranking Member on the Ag Committee. Republican Congressman G.T. Thompson from Georgia will continue the Chair the U.S. House Agriculture committee, and Minnesota Second District Congresswoman Angie Craig will likely continue as the lead Democrat on the Ag Committee. There are many other Senators and members of the U.S. House from the Upper Midwest that are seated on key Congressional committees that have an impact on the ag industry.
Following is some perspective on a few of the key agriculture and energy policy issues that may be under consideration during the next session of Congress, or by executive action from the Administration:
· TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY --- During the first year of his second term, President Trump has shown the willingness to impose large additional tariffs on a variety of goods being imported into the United States from China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries. The administration later eased up on some of those tariffs, especially on certain goods and services used by the ag industry; however, the cost of many farm inputs and expenses increased in 2025 due to impacts that resulted from the added tariffs. Canada, Mexico, and China are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports, including corn, soybeans, ethanol, pork, beef, and dairy products. The “United States-Mexico-Canada” (USMCA) trade agreement negotiated during the first Trump administration will be up for renewal in 2026. Farm groups and ag leaders are also hopeful that the administration can negotiate new trade agreements with other countries, in addition to the China trade deal that was negotiated this past Fall. Expanding U.S. exports is seen as a key component to improving farm profitability for many ag commodities.
· RENEWABLE FUELS AND ENERGY --- Many farm organizations are hoping that the Trump administration and Congress will take a stronger stance on further development of the renewable energy industry in the U.S. through implementation of year-round E-15 fuel blends, development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other incentives for renewable fuels. Ethanol and renewable diesel production have a major economic impact for farm operators, as well as for the overall rural economy in the Upper Midwest. Many ag leaders point to the development of SAF as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, the federal government has been somewhat slow to develop policies, as well as to provide the research and development funding, for the production of SAF fuel. U.S. farmers and the renewable fuel processing plants have remained somewhat confused regarding the policy direction for SAF fuel, along with the research and development of SAF fuel, as well as the overall future for the renewable energy industry in the U.S.
· FARM AND RURAL ECONOMY STRUGGLES CONTINUE --- Profit margins from crop production for many farmers were negative for the third year in a row in 2025, and profit prospects do not appear to be much better for 2026. The continued long-term weak farm profitability could put some farm operations on the brink of financial disaster. Crop production input costs and other farm expenses are expected increase in 2026, while land rental rates are expected to stay at fairly high levels in the coming year. Crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and remain the lowest levels in the several years. For farm operators that experienced crop losses in either 2024 or 2025 due to weather issues, the financial situation is likely even more severe. Farmers have become quite dependent on short-term ad hoc government payments to offset the negative profit margins. During 2025, most crop producers received Economic Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments, and some farmers also received Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) payments for 2024 crop yield losses. Looking ahead to 2026, most crop producers will be receiving the recently announced Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments in late February, and there will likely be a “top-off” SDRP payment for 2023 and 2024 crop yield losses. There has been no announcement of any disaster assistance for 2025 crop yield reductions.
· IMPLEMENTATION OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL ACT” (OBBA) --- The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” that Congress passed in 2025 contained many provisions that will improve the “safety net” for many Midwest crop producers, which began with the 2025 crop year. This included enhancements to the reference prices and crop insurance provisions that would normally be addressed in a Farm Bill. Most of the farm “safety net” provisions that were updated in the OBBA have been in place since the 2014 Farm Bill was enacted, and were continued through the 2024 year. The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023, and was extended last Fall for a second year in a row, with a new expiration date of September 30, 2026. In addition to the improvements in some crop “safety net” provisions, the OBBA also made some adjustments to the Nutrition Title of the Farm Bill (SNAP program, etc.). However, the OBBA did not address other Farm Bill Titles such as Conservation, Rural Development, Ag Research, or Trade Promotion.
· IMMIGRATION POLICIES --- Both production agriculture and the ag processing industry rely heavily on immigrant labor to maintain an adequate workforce, so actions in many parts of the U.S. by the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency has put some segments of the industry on edge in many communities. In the meantime, there has been very little action by either Congress or the Administration to address the workforce shortage that exists in portions of the agriculture industry. What is really needed is the development of an immigration policy that both secures the U.S. border and also allows needed immigration to satisfy labor shortages in some segments of the ag industry.
· IMPLICATIONS OF “MAKE AMERICA HEALTHY AGAIN” (MAHA) --- U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), Robert F. Kennedy, stirred some concern during 2025 with some potential proposals that were in the initial MAHA reports. While many of the recommendations in the report related to the agriculture industry were delayed, many farm and ag industry leaders are wondering what the impacts of MAHA might be in 2026 and beyond. Some of these recommendations could have a major impact on future farm production practices, as well as on the ag processing industry.
These are only a few of the potential ag policy issues that could affect farm families and rural businesses in 2026. There are also issues such as family health care access and costs, infrastructure needs in rural areas, assistance for beginning farmers, and other issues affecting rural families and communities. It will be interesting if Congress or the Administration addresses any of these issues in the coming year, which will feature the important nationwide Midterm Elections in November, 2026.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]
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