Enhanced 2025 Crop Yield Expectations In Minnesota

August is typically the month of the year when we get the first producer survey yield estimates from USDA, as well as yield projections from major private firms. This yield data is gathered in different formats from producer survey and crop tours. There is not necessarily a method that has proven more accurate than any other, as all methods have some strengths as well as some limitations. As usual, the one consistency being echoed by most crop experts is that the 2025 crop yields are likely to be highly variable and are very difficult to predict. Some areas of the Western Corn Belt have experienced excellent growing conditions this year, while other portions of the Midwest have been negatively impacted by excessive rainfall and heat, as well as late season fungal diseases. Most of the crop information in these estimates was based on crop conditions in early-to-mid August, so any major changes in conditions after that timeframe could alter final state or national yield numbers.
The statewide and national corn and soybean yield estimates in the USDA Crop Report that was released on August 12, 2025, were based on crop conditions as of August 1. The USDA report was based on a survey of over 15,000 crop producers from across the United States that was conducted National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). The next USDA Crop Report will be released on September 12 and will be based on crop conditions as of September 1. This report will include actual field survey data in the yield and production estimates.
The “Pro Farmer Crop Tour”, which is conducted in late August, is one of the main sources of crop yield and production estimates that is released by private firms. This annual tour is quite well established and has been around for several decades. Pro Farmer Tour gathers “in-person” field yield data from the primary corn and soybean production areas in seven States during the third or fourth week of August, which is then adjusted for crop maturity and historical differences between tour data and final yield numbers. Yield adjustments are also made in made in states that have unique conditions in certain areas of a state, such as drought conditions, irrigation in Nebraska, and geographical differences in states like Minnesota and South Dakota.
For the several years, DTN has conducted a “digital yield tour” of the primary corn and soybean production areas in the United States. DTN derives their yield estimates utilizing satellite imagery taken during the second week of August, which is then adjusted based on actual rainfall amounts and temperature data, as well as for the drought index. The DTN yield data will continue to be updated into September. DTN did not issue a national corn or soybean yield estimate in the August estimates.
Nationally, the Pro Farmer corn yield estimate was 182.7, compared to 188.8 bushels per acre in the August 12 USDA Crop Report. The 2025 national corn yield projections from USDA and Pro Farmer both exceed the final 2024 record average U.S. corn yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. The 2024 national corn yield projections also compare to other recent national average U.S. corn yields of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, and 172 bushels per acre in 2020.
The national yield differences between the USDA corn yield estimate (188.8 bu./acre) and the Pro Farmer projection (182.7 bu./acre) may not seem that significant; however, that could potentially represent a large difference in the final total 2025 U.S. corn production level. Depending on U.S. and World corn demand, that yield difference could affect the U.S. corn supply, which in turn could impact grain market prices in the coming months. The current difference between the corn yield estimates from USDA and Pro Farmer is 6.2 bushels per acre. Based on the USDA estimate of 88.7 million harvested acres of corn in the U.S. in 2024, that yield difference represents nearly 550 million bushels of corn. USDA is currently estimating the 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks at just over 2.1 billion bushels, based on the USDA estimated yield of 188.8 bushels per acre. A national yield decline of 6 bushels per acre in 2025 would potentially reduce U.S. corn carryout level to the much more manageable level of 1.55 billion bushels.
In many instances, there was not a lot of consistency in the state-by-state average corn yield estimates from the various sources. Some states had higher projected corn yields in the August 12 USDA crop report compared to estimates released by the crop tours and digital surveys, while in other states the USDA projected yield trailed the private estimates. For example, USDA estimated the 2025 Illinois corn yield at 221 bushels per acre and DTN was at 220.1 bushels per acre, compared to the estimate of 199.6 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. In Iowa, the corn yield estimates were 222 bushels per acre by USDA and 223.7 bushels per acre by DTN, while Pro Farmer was at 198.4 bushels per acre. On the other hand, Pro Farmer had a corn yield projection of 202.8 bushels per acre for Minnesota, which was fairly close to the USDA yield estimate of 202 bushels per acre and the DTN yield at 199.1 bushels per acre. 2025 crop and weather conditions in the western Corn Belt have been much more consistent than in the eastern Corn Belt.
NASS estimated the 2025 U.S. national average soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre in the August 12 USDA Report, which was very similar to national soybean yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. The USDA and Pro Farmer 2025 soybean yield estimates would far exceed the final national yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024 and 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, as well as the current record national average soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016. The various state-by-state soybean yield projections in the northern Corn Belt showed less variation between the August USDA yield estimates and the 2025 yield projections by the private firms than existed with corn.
Based on the August 18th USDA Crop Progress Report, 71 percent of the U.S. corn crop as “good-to-excellent” which compares to late August crop ratings of 67 percent in 2024, 58 percent in 2023 and 55 percent in 2022. Only 8 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor”. The highest statewide “good-to-excellent” ratings were Iowa at 86 percent, Wisconsin at 82 percent, Nebraska and South Dakota at 77 percent, and Minnesota at 74 percent. Lower “good-to excellent” corn ratings were recorded in the Eastern Corn Belt States, with Illinois, Indiana and Ohio at 55 percent, along with North Dakota also at 63 percent.
The weekly USDA crop ratings on August 18 listed 68 percent of the soybean crop in the U.S. as “good-to-excellent”, which is the same as the mid-August rating in 2024, but is well above the ratings of 59 percent in 2023 and 57 percent in 2022 at this point in the year. Many of the Midwest states with larger soybean acreage were in the higher crop ratings categories. Iowa and Wisconsin lead the way at 82 percent rated “good-to-excellent”, followed by Nebraska and South Dakota at 77 percent, and Minnesota at 74 percent. The higher soybean ratings were lower in other states, including Indiana at 63 percent, North Dakota at 61 percent, Illinois at 60 percent, and Ohio at 56 percent. Most states in the primary soybean production area in the Western Corn Belt had higher “good-to-excellent” ratings in mid-August this year, as compared to a year ago.
Several top crop advisors point out that the 2025 national and statewide average corn and soybean yields are very hard to predict, due to the wide variability in crop conditions in the Midwest. Several portions of Midwest have been impacted by excessive rainfall during August, along with development of late season corn and soybean fungal diseases later in the growing season. We probably will not know the full impact of these situations on the final yield results until harvest is completed. Areas of the Midwest that were not impacted by adverse weather during the growing season should benefit from more favorable growing conditions in late August. Growing degree units have been running slightly ahead of normal in most portions of the Upper Midwest, so there should be limited concern regarding crop maturity at normal dates for the first killing frost in most locations.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]