Grain Market Prices Improve

In the past 2-3 years, there have been very few good opportunities for farmers to market corn and soybeans at favorable price levels. This has resulted in a large amount of grain being sold below breakeven levels, as well as a significant amount of the 2025 corn crop being still in storage on farms across the Midwest. This has also left farmers with some very difficult grain marketing decisions for both the grain that is still in storage, as well as for the 2026 crop that is currently being planted. In recent weeks, there has been a bit more optimism, with some improvement in corn and soybean prices.
Nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed at $12.03 per bushel on May 1, which was an increase of 25 cents for the week. The nearby CBOT futures price has risen by over a $1.50 per bushel since the beginning of 2026; however there has been a lot of volatility in day-to-day soybean market closing prices. The 2026 CBOT soybean futures price surpassed the early May CBOT prices of $10.50 per bushel in 2025 and $11.63 per bushel in 2024; however, the 2026 closing price is still well below the early May closing prices of $14.99 per bushel in 2023, $16.65 per bushel in 2022, and $14.03 per bushel in 2021.
Nearby CBOT corn futures closed at $4.80 per bushel on May 1, which was highest closing price for the July futures contract in the past 13 months. The nearby corn futures price has risen by about $.40 per bushel since the beginning of 2026, and is about $.50 above the nearby CBOT futures price during harvest season in the Fall of 2025. Similar to soybeans, the 2026 May 1 CBOT corn futures price surpassed the early May CBOT prices of $4.72 per bushel in 2025 and $4.46 per bushel in 2024. The current 2026 corn futures price is still well below the early May closing prices of $5.85 per bushel in 2023, $7.84 per bushel in 2022, and $5.77 per bushel in 2021.
From 2021 until early 2023, nearby futures prices on the CBOT for both corn and soybeans were at the highest sustained levels since a similar period a decade earlier from 2011 to 2013. This allowed for some excellent profit margins for Midwest corn and soybean producers during that period, especially for farmers that had average or above average crop yields in those years. The nearby CBOT corn futures price exceeded $5.00 per bushel from early 2021 until late June of 2023, and remained above $6.00 per bushel from early 2022 until late April of 2023. Prior to 2021, the nearby corn futures price had not been above $5.00 per bushel since late Summer of 2013. In fact, from 2015 through 2020, nearby corn futures were below $4.00 per bushel for a high percentage of the time, which provided for very challenging profit years for farmers.
Similar to corn, the nearby CBOT soybean futures price exceeded $13.00 per bushel from early in 2021 until late in 2023, except for a few months in the Fall of 2021. Nearby soybean futures prices exceeded $14.00 per bushel most of the time in 2022, trading above $16.00 per bushel for a few months in the Spring and early Summer that year. Prior to late 2020, the nearby soybean futures price had not exceeded $12.00 per bushel since late Summer of 2014. From 2011 through 2013, nearby soybean futures exceeded $13.00 per bushel for much of that period. The all-time high soybean futures price of $17.68 per bushel occurred in September during the drought year of 2012. On the other hand, soybean futures traded near or below $9.00 per bushel much of the time during 2018 and 2019, due to the effects of the U.S. trade war with China.
The downturn in the CBOT prices during 2024 and 2025 for both corn and soybeans was driven by a combination of increasing U.S. and World grain stocks and struggling export demand for both commodities, along favorable U.S. corn and soybean production in 2025. Recent improvement in grain prices has been driven by strong domestic demand and solid export sales in recent months, along with more manageable worldwide grain supplies. However, the large projected levels of 2025 corn and soybean ending stocks in the U.S. has tempered some of the enhancement in cash grain markets. The current war in Iran has also created some uncertainty in the grain markets. The markets are now focused on 2026 planting progress and growing season crop conditions in the U.S.
The “basis” level for local corn and soybean cash price bids in most areas of the Upper Midwest became wider in 2024 and 2025, and basis levels have remained quite wide during the first few months of 2026. The “basis” is the difference between the local cash price being offered in a given month and the closet CBOT futures price. The cash corn basis level in Southern Minnesota in recent months has been $.40 to $.50 per bushel under nearby CBOT prices at most locations, with slightly better basis levels at some ethanol plants and feed mills, The soybean basis level in the region at soybean processing plants has been $.30 to $.40 per bushel below the CBOT nearby futures price, while basis levels at local grain elevators has generally been $.50-$.70 under CBOT futures prices. Current cash basis levels are slightly wider than at this time a year ago. Many processing plants and local elevators in the Corn Belt offered cash prices with a positive basis at certain times during 2022 and 2023.
 
Current Grain Marketing Opportunities
The current rise in grain prices has certainly been welcome news to farmers who still had some 2025 corn and soybeans stored in grain bins for future sales. The cash soybean price at Southern Minnesota processing plants topped $11.70 per bushel on May 1, which is one of the highest cash prices in the past two years. Many farmers had already sold all of their 2025 soybean crop after harvest or in early 2026 for cash flow purposes when soybean prices were about $1.50 per bushel lower than current levels. Cash corn prices are $4.15 to $4.25 per bushel at many locations in southern Minnesota; however, cash corn prices did not top $4.00 per bushel until recent weeks. Most producers likely had a breakeven level above $4.50 per bushel for the 2025 corn crop.
Once farm operators reach planting season, they pay close attention to “new crop” corn and soybean prices for harvest season and beyond at local grain elevators and processing plants. Cash bids for Fall delivery of the 2026 corn crop at local grain elevators and ethanol plants in Southern Minnesota on May 1 ranged from $4.25 to $4.50 per bushel at many locations, which is slightly higher than a year ago and similar to early May “new crop” corn bids in 2024. Cash bids for 2026 “new crop” soybeans at grain elevators in Southern Minnesota are near $10.75 to $11.00 per bushel, with forward prices just above $11.25 per bushel at processing plants. The current cash soybean harvest bids for 2026 are nearly $1.50 per bushel higher than a year ago, and are similar to early May soybean harvest bids in 2024.
Harvest price bids for corn are based on the CBOT 2026 December futures price, while soybean harvest bids are based on the November futures price. The corn basis level for the Fall of 2026 remains quite wide at about $.50 to $.60 per bushel at local ethanol plants and grain elevators in Southern Minnesota. The soybean basis for the Fall of 2026 has been near $.50 per bushel under at soybean processing plants and $.80 to $.90 per bushel below the CBOT November futures price at grain elevators. The basis levels at local grain elevators and processing plants are important to farm operators for determining pre-harvest grain market strategies in a given year.
In the past twenty years (2006-2025), the CBOT December corn futures price has increased at least $.20 per bushel above the Spring crop insurance price (average price in February) in 18 of 20 years, and has increased by at least $.30 per bushel in 16 years, and by at least $.40 per bushel in 12 years. The median increase in the December price has been $.59 per bushel. The 2026 Spring crop insurance price for corn was $4.61 per bushel, and CBOT December closing price on May 1 was $4.99 per bushel, or $.38 per bushel above the Spring price.
Grain marketing decisions for 2026 will likely be very difficult for most producers, with current cash prices below breakeven levels. For many Midwest crop producers, the breakeven levels to cover direct and overhead expenses on cash rented land in 2026 will likely be near or exceed $5.00 per bushel for corn, and be over $11.00 per bushel for soybeans. In many years, the Spring and early Summer months usually offer some of the best opportunities to forward price “new crop” corn and soybeans. Unless there is a drought or other crop issues in the U.S. in 2026, corn and soybean prices are likely to follow this more typical seasonal price pattern as we progress toward harvest this year. Further export issues with tariffs or a worsening of the war in Iran could put further pressure on grain prices; however, passage of year-round E-15 ethanol usage could be a boost for markets.