Harvest Season In Full Swing In The Midwest

By early October, the 2025 soybean harvest was in full swing in most portions of the Midwest. In addition, a majority of corn hybrids had reached physiological maturity and was rapidly reaching desirable moisture levels for harvest. The very warm and dry weather in the Upper Midwest during late September pushed the 2025 corn and soybean crop very rapidly toward maturity.  The 24-hour average temperature during September this year at the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca was 65.9 degrees, which was 4.3 degrees above normal. The warm weather trend in Southern Minnesota continued during the first seven days of October, with the Waseca location averaging 65.6 degrees, or 12.4 degrees above normal.
 
As of October 7, a total of 2,901 growing degree units (GDU’s) had been accumulated since May 1 at the U of M Research Center at Waseca, which is comparable to many areas of Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa. As of October 10, the Waseca location has not yet had the first freezing temperatures of the year, so GDU accumulation for the year continues. The total 2025 GDU accumulation at Waseca exceeded the average GDU accumulation by about 15 percent, and was slightly ahead of the GDU accumulation of 2,781 on October 7 in 2024. The extra growing degree units, combined with warm weather in September, helped this year’s corn and soybean crop reach maturity on a timely basis, as well as to dry down rapidly in the field.
 
In addition to September being extremely warm for most of the month in 2025, it was also quite dry in many areas of the Upper Midwest. The September rainfall at the Waseca Research Center totaled 1.33 inches, which was 2.82 inches below normal; however, many areas of the Corn Belt had much lower rainfall amounts during the month and are quite dry. The total growing season precipitation at Waseca was the sixth highest on record, but much of the added precipitation came in very large rainfall events during July and August. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor released on October 9th shows a large majority of the Eastern Corn Belt as “abnormally dry or in “moderate drought” conditions, as well as most of Missouri and southeastern Iowa. Most of the rest of Iowa, southern and central Minnesota, and the Dakota’s are not shown in any category in the latest drought update; however, much of northern Minnesota, as well as northern and central Wisconsin were listed as “abnormally dry”.
 
As of October 10, soybean harvest was nearing completion in many locations across Upper Midwest. Nearly all soybeans had reached maturity, except for soybeans that were planted very late due to wet field conditions or that were replanted following heavy rains and hail damage in June. As expected, soybean yields have been highly variable across the Midwest due to impacts from heavy rainfall amounts during the Summer months and very dry conditions late in the growing season in some locations, as well as yield reductions from significant soybean disease pressure in some areas. In many portions of Minnesota, Northern Iowa and eastern South Dakota soybean yields have generally been average to above average, as well as being well above most soybean yields a year ago.  Soybean yields have been less consistent and somewhat disappointing in areas that did not receive timely rainfall during the latter portions of the 2025 growing season.
 
Most of the corn in the Upper Midwest had reached physiological maturity by late September, which is the “black layer” stage, or was very close to reaching maturity. Corn is usually at 30-32 percent moisture when it reaches the “back layer” stage, and then begins to dry down naturally in the field. Ideally, growers like to see corn dried down in the field to at least 20-22 percent moisture or lower before they harvest the corn. This greatly saves on corn drying costs and improves the quality of the corn being harvested and going into storage. Corn is usually dried down to a final moisture content of 15-16 percent moisture for safe storage on the farm until the following Summer. The moisture content on much of the corn being harvested in many areas has dropped has now dropped below 20 percent in many areas. If favorable drying weather continues in the coming weeks, it is likely that corn drying costs will be greatly reduced in 2025, which is certainly beneficial in a year such as this.
It is a bit early to project 2025 corn yields across the Midwest; however, early indications are that corn yields in many areas will just as variable as the soybean yields have been. In portions of the upper Midwest such as Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa that had timely and adequate rainfall during the growing season, 2025 corn yields should end up average to above average. However, in areas that were severely impacted by the excessive rainfall at some point, or the hot, dry weather in August, corn yields might be reduced. There was also a significant amount of corn disease pressure in many areas that may impact final yields on fields that did not receive timely fungicide applications. In southern Minnesota many of the crop insurance 10-year average APH yields are 200 bushels per acre or more. The 2025 corn yields should exceed APH yields in many portions of the region, compared to a year ago when corn yields were 20-30 percent below APH yields in the same area.
 
  
2024 ARC-CO Payments Subject to Sequestration Reduction
It was recently revealed that the federal government that a 5.7 percent (.057) sequestration reduction will be applied to all 2024 ARC-CO payments that many farmers are expecting in the coming weeks. This will be factored on the calculated ARC-CO payments per crop base acre. The potential farm program payments have already factored downward by 15 percent, based on the farm program payment formula for ARC-CO and PLC payments in the 2018 Farm Bill. This means that once a 2024 ARC-CO payment for corn and soybeans per base acre has been calculated, based on the farm program formula, the payments will be further factored downward by 5.7 percent to arrive at the “net 2024 ARC-CO payment”.
 
So, the overall formula to arrive at the final 2024 ARC-CO payment is the calculated gross ARC-CO payment The calculated gross ARC-CO payment for a county (the maximum payment is the county benchmark revenue x .10)  times 85 percent (.85) (payments paid on 85 percent of the crop base acres) times .943 (5.7 percent sequestration reduction.
Corn example = $100/A (max. ARC-CO payment)  x  .85  =  $85 per base acre  x  .943  = $80.16 per base acre
Soybean example = $50/A (partial payment)  x  .85  =  $42.50 per base acre  x  .943  = $40.08 per base acre
 
 
The two information sheets written by Kent Thiesse titled: “2024 Farm Program Payment Estimates” and “2024 ARC-CO Payment Estimates for Minnesota” have both been updated to reflect the 5.7 percent sequestration reduction. The ARC-CO payment estimate information sheet for Minnesota lists the estimated 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payment for every county in Minnesota where 2024 RMA crop yields were available. The 2024 final 2024 RMA county average corn and soybean yields are used to calculate the potential ARC-CO payments for every county. To receive copies of the updated 2024 ARC-CO payment information sheets, please send an email to: [email protected].
 
 
As of this writing, the federal government shutdown continues, with no indication when it might end. When the federal government shutdown was initiated on October 1st, it halted nearly all USDA activities, including all farm-related payments and programs through Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. This included payment of any USDA farm program payments, including the likely 2024 corn and soybean ARC-CO payments that many farmers are expecting. USDA should be able to process those payments fairy efficiently once the federal government reopens.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]