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January 2025
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The January USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is often known as being a “market mover”, and the WASDE report released on January 10th did not disappoint. USDA made significant downward adjustments to final 2024 corn and soybean production numbers, based on lowering the final 2024 national average corn yield by 2.1 percent and the average soybean yield by 1.9 percent. The reductions in the corn and soybean supply, together with only minor adjustments in corn and soybean usage, resulted in a significant decline in projected ending stocks for both crops compared to a month earlier. The initial market reaction following this report was an increase in both corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
CORN The updated National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report for 2024 was also released on January 10th. The report estimated the final 2024 U.S. average corn yield at 179.3 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 3.8 bushels per acre from November’s estimate. The 2024 corn yield estimate is still a new record average U.S. corn yield, surpassing the previous record U.S. yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and compares to 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022. The corn yield estimates in the latest NASS report were lowered by 4.9 percent or more in Minnesota, Indiana, and Kansas, compared to the last yield estimate in November. Minnesota is estimated to have a final 2024 average corn yield of 174 bushels, while Iowa is projected to have a final corn yield of 211 bushels per acre. Other estimated average corn yields for 2024 included Illinois at 217 bushels per acre, Indiana at 198 bushels per acre, Ohio at 177 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 188 bushels per acre, Wisconsin at 174 bushels, South Dakota at 164 bushels per acre, and North Dakota at 149 bushels per acre. The latest WASDE report listed the total 2024 U.S. corn production at 14.87 billion bushels, which was lowered from 15.14 billion bushels last month. The 2024 U.S. corn production was below the record level of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023; however, it is still about 1.2 billion bushels above the 2022 corn production level. The latest USDA report put the total demand for corn usage in 2024-25 at just over 15.1 billion bushels, which is a slight increase from 2023-24 corn usage figures. USDA is projecting corn export levels to increase by 158 million bushels in 2024-25, along with slight increases of 21 million bushels in corn used for feed and 22 million bushels in corn processed into ethanol. USDA is estimating 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which was a decrease of 198 million bushels from the December WASDE report. The estimated 2024-25 ending stocks are 12.6 percent lower than the final ending stocks of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24; however, the current projected carryover exceeds the 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is now estimated at 10.2 percent for 2023-24, which compares to ratios of 11.9 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23, and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. At this point, the projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the relatively high stocks-to-use ratios of 13.7 percent in 2019-20 and 14.6 percent in 2018-19. The anticipated reduction in the available corn supply could offer some potential for short-term rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months. USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.25 per bushel, which is an increase of $.15 per bushel from the December estimate. The market year average (MYA) corn and soybean price estimates for 2024-25 are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2024 crop from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent estimated prices for either the 2024 or 2025 calendar year. The projected 2024-25 corn price of $4.25 per bushel compares to a final MYA price of $4.55 for 2023-24 and is a significant decline from the final MYA prices of $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23 and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current projected MYA price is also slightly lower than $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21; however, it far exceeds the national average corn prices of $3.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19, and $3.36 per bushel in 2017-18. SOYBEANS The latest NASS report projects the final 2024 U.S. average soybean yield at 50.7 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of one bushel per acre from the November yield estimate. The 2024 yield compares to recent final U.S. average yields of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022 and 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021. Total U.S. soybean production for 2024 is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels, which is an increase of 204 million bushels from the final 2023 production level. The recent WASDE report estimates total soybean demand at 4.349 billion bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year, which is an increase of 244 million bushels from 2023-24 soybean demand levels. Soybean crush levels are expected to increase by 123 million bushels in the current marketing year, while soybean exports are expected to be 130 million bushels higher than 2023-24 levels. Soybean exports in 2024-25 would still be 155 million bushels below 2022-23 export levels. The latest WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year at 380 million bushels, which was a decrease of 90 million bushels from the December report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are an increase of 38 million bushels from the 2023-24 carryout level of 342 million bushels. The current projected ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21 Current levels are well below ending stocks of 525 million bushels in 2019-20, 913 million bushels in 2018-19, and 438 million bushels in 2017-18. The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is similar to the final ratio of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, but is higher than the ratios of 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22 and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio remains is still considerably lower than soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The reduction in the 2024-25 estimated soybean supply may offer some opportunities for some short-term rallies in cash soybean prices in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop in South America or with the 2025 U.S. soybean crop. USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level (MYA) soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel, which is unchanged from the December estimate. The estimated 2024-25 average soybean price would be a significant decline from the final soybean MYA prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The 2024-25 MYA price estimate would be comparable to the soybean MYA price of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21; however it would still be considerably higher than the MYA prices of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20 and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19. Market Reaction to the WASDE Report Both corn and soybean market prices showed a very positive market response following the release of the latest WASDE report on January 10th. Nearby cash corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 14.5 cents per bushel following the report, closing at a price of $4.70 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 corn crop since late June of 2024. By comparison, nearby corn futures were at $4.59 per bushel in 2024 and $6.70 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The December CBOT corn futures price, which is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 corn crop were up 3.25 cents per bushel at the market closing on January 10th, closing at $4.50 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT corn futures prices were at $4.91 per bushel in 2024 and $6.07 per bushel in 2023 following the WASDE report in January. CBOT cash soybean futures increased by 26.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report, closing at a price of $10.25 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 soybean crop since late October of 2024. The current nearby soybean futures price is well below the CBOT prices $12.40 per bushel in 2024 and $14.87 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The November CBOT soybean futures price that is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 soybean crop was up 17.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report and closed at $10.31 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT soybean futures prices were at $12.04 per bushel in 2024 and $13.97 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]
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