July 11th WASDE Report Lowers Corn Ending Stocks

The USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report released on July 11th included a slight decrease in the projected 2025 corn production, based on the small decrease in the estimated 2025 U.S. corn acreage that was in the June 30th USDA Crop Acreage Report. USDA also indicated a slight reduction in the anticipated corn ending stocks for the current 2024-25 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2025. The combination of these factors resulted projected lower corn ending stocks for both the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing year. Corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed very little reaction to the WASDE report and continued to react to favorable growing conditions across much of the Corn Belt, resulting in corn futures prices being down slightly following the release of the report.
Following are some highlights from the July 11th WASDE Report:
CORN
The most encouraging news in the July 11th WASDE report was an increase of 100 million bushels of corn exports in the 2024-25 marketing year. Following a reduction of 75 million bushels in the anticipated corn used for feed in the current marketing year, the result was projected 2024-25 corn ending stocks of 134 billion bushels, which was a decrease of 25 million bushels from a month earlier. The estimated corn ending stocks for 2025-26 in the July WASDE report was 1.66 billion bushels, which was a decline of 90 million bushels from the June estimate. The estimated 2025-26 ending stocks would be an increase of 420 million bushels from the projected corn ending stocks for the current year; however, they would still trail the 2023-24 ending stocks of 1.763 billion bushels.
The July 11th WASDE report used the estimated planted U.S. corn acreage of 95.2 million acres, which matched the acreage in the USDA Crop Acreage Report, and compared to 95.3 million acres in the June WASDE report. USDA also decreased the projected harvested acres of corn for grain in the July report to 86.8 million acres, compared to 87.4 million acres in the June report. USDA left the estimated 2025 U.S. corn yield at 181 bushels per acre, which is unchanged from the June report and would be a record U.S. corn yield. The current record U.S. corn yield is 179.3 bushels per acre, which was set in 2024. The adjusted corn acreage together with the projected record corn yield increased the estimated 2025 corn production to just over 15.7 billion bushels. The projected 2025 total U.S. corn production compares to other recent U.S. corn production totals of 14.87 billion bushels in 2024, 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, and 13.65 billion bushels in 2022.
The total corn usage for 2024-25 is estimated at just over 15.31 billion bushels, which would be an increase of approximately 349 million bushels from the total corn usage for 2023-24. Corn used for ethanol production, corn fed to livestock, and corn export levels for the 2024-25 marketing year are all expected to up slightly from a year earlier. Total U.S. corn usage for 2025-26 is projected at just over 15.4 billion bushels, with most usage categories very similar to the current projected usage levels in 2024-25.
USDA is projecting 2024-25 market year average (MYA) corn price at $4.30 per bushel, which was a decline of 5 cents per bushel from the June WASDE report. USDA is estimating the 2025-26 MYA corn price at $4.20 per bushel, which was the same as a month earlier. The 2024-25 marketing year for corn and soybeans ends on August 31, 2025 and the marketing year for the 2025 crop year begins on September 1, 2025, and continues through August 31, 2026. The current price projections compare to recent national average corn prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20. CBOT corn futures prices closed 3-4 cents per bushel lower following the release on the July 11th report, with December 2025 futures closing at $4.13 per bushel. New crop cash bids for Fall delivery were $3.75 per bushel or lower at many locations in the Upper Midwest.
SOYBEANS
Based on the July 11th WASDE report, USDA is now estimating 2025 U.S. planted soybean acreage at 83.41 million acres, which was a slight decrease from the June estimate and compares to 86.1 million acres in 2024. The record national soybean acreage was 89.2 million acres in 2018. The July 11th report projected a U.S. average soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2025, which was unchanged from the June report and compares to a final national yield of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024. Total U.S soybean production for 2025 is now estimated at just over 4.33 billion bushels, which would be very similar to the final U.S. soybean production of 4.37 billion bushels in 2024, but is still below the record U.S. soybean production of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018.
USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2024-25 at just over 4.38 billion bushels, which is up from just over 4.1 billion bushels of usage in 2023-24. The projected soybean usage for the current marketing year includes increases in both the expected soybean crush level and the projected soybean export level, compared to a year earlier. USDA is now estimating soybean ending stocks at the end of the 2024-25 marketing year that ends on August 31, 2025 to be at 350 million bushels, which would be very similar to the carryout level of 342 billion bushels in 2023-24. USDA is projecting soybean ending stocks to decline by 40 million bushels to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year. The current estimated carryout levels for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing years are still well below the large soybean carryover levels that existed from 2018-2020.
USDA is estimating the national MYA soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing year at $10.00 per bushel, which is an increase of 5 cents per bushel from the June report. The July WASDE report projected the farm-level average MYA soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.10 per bushel, which was lowered by $.15 per bushel from the June report. The current MYA soybean price projections compare to recent final MYA soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23; $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. The CBOT November soybean futures price for the 2025 crop closed at $10.10 per bushel following the release of the WASDE report, with new crop cash bids at many locations in the Upper Midwest at $9.00 to $9.50 per bushel.
WHEAT
Total U.S. wheat production for 2025 is estimated at nearly 1.93 billion bushels, which would be very similar to the 1.97 billion bushels in 2024, with both being above the 1.8 billion bushel production level in 2023. The estimated average U.S. wheat yield for 2025 is 52.6 bushels per acre, which was unchanged from the June WASDE report and compares to 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024 and 48.7 bushels per acre in 2023. The total wheat usage level for 2025-26 is projected at just over 2 billion bushels, which compares to usage levels of 1.97 billion bushels in 2024-25 and 1.81 billion bushels in 2023-24. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are now estimated at 890 million bushels, compared to 853 million bushels in 2024-25 and 696 million bushels in 2023-24.
The 2025-26 USDA marketing year for wheat and other small grains runs from June 1, 2025 through May 31, 2026. The July WASDE report estimated the 2025-26 MYA wheat price at $5.40 per bushel, which was unchanged from the price estimate a month ago in the June report. The MYA wheat price estimate for 2025-26 compares to recent final MYA wheat prices of $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25, $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, and $8.83 per bushel in 2022-23. The current wheat price projections are very similar to the low wheat price levels that existed from 2014 to 2020.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]