June 28th USDA Report Increases Corn Acreage

​The late June USDA Acreage Report is always highly anticipated, because it becomes the first “hard data” after the March USDA Plantings Intentions Report to give an indication of crop production levels for a given growing season. Many times, the June USDA Report can have a big impact on grain market trends, either upwards or downwards, and 2024 is no exception. The crop acreage report was initially viewed “bearish” for corn markets and fairly neutral for soybeans. Based on the June 28th report, farmers planted more acres of corn and less acres of soybeans in 2024 than was projected in the March 30 Planting Intentions Report. USDA surveyed more than 70,000 agricultural producers during the first two weeks of June to gather information for the June 28th report. However, it should be noted that as of early June there was an estimated 3.3 million acres of corn and 12.8 million acres of soybeans remaining to be planted. Crop acreage numbers will be adjusted in future months following the producer acreage reports to Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices in July.
 
The biggest surprise in the June 28th USDA Acreage Report was the estimate of 91.5 million planted corn acres planted in the U.S. in 2024. This was an increase of over 1.4 million planted acres from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report and was over 1.1 million acres above the estimates of grain marketing analysts. The 2024 corn acreage estimate was a decrease of 3 percent from the 2023 planted corn acres of 94.6 million acres. The estimated 2024 corn acreage also compares to 88.6 million acres in 2022, 93.6 million acres in 2021, 90.8 million acres in 2020, 89.7 million acres in 2019, and 89.1 million acres in 2018. The 2024 corn acreage was increased above the March planting intentions in 6 States, including increases of 600,000 acres in Kansas, 300,000 acres in Iowa, 250,000 acres in Nebraska, 200,000 acres in Minnesota, and 100,000 acres in both Ohio and South Dakota.
 
Based on the June 28th Report, 2024 corn acreage is expected to decrease in 9 of the 12 primary corn producing States, increase in 2 States, and stay the same in 1 State, as compared to 2023 acreage. Following is the estimated 2024 corn acreage in selected Upper Midwest States (with the change from 2023): Iowa at 13.1 million acres (same as 2023); Illinois at 10.9 million acres (down 300,000 acres); Nebraska at 10.1 million acres (up 150,000 acres); Minnesota at 8.1 million acres (down 500,000 acres); Kansas at 6.3 million acres (up 550,000 acres); South Dakota at 6.1 million acres (down 200,000 acres); Indiana at 5.1 million acres (down 350,000 acres); North Dakota at 3.8 million acres (down 250,000 acres); Wisconsin at 3.7 million acres (down 300,000 acres); Missouri at 3.5 million acres (down 350,000 acres); and Ohio at 3.4 million acres (down 200,000 acres).
 
The June 28th USDA Report estimated that 86.1 million acres of soybean acres will be planted in 2024 in the U.S., which was a decrease of 410,000 acres from the March 1st USDA acreage estimate and would be over 650,00 acres below the average estimates of grain marketing analysts. The 2024 U.S. soybean acreage projection does represent an increase of 3 percent or 2.5 million acres from the 2023 planted acres. The estimated 2024 U.S. soybean acreage compares to other recent acreage levels of 83.6 million acres in 2023, 87.4 million acres in 2022, 87.2 million acres in 2021, 83.1 million acres in 2020, 76.1 million acres in 2019, and 89.2 million acres in 2018. The record U.S. soybean acreage was 90.2 million acres in 2017.
 
The 2024 soybean acreage is expected to increase or remain steady in 24 of the 29 reporting soybean producing States, as compared to 2023 acreage, with only Iowa showing a slight year-to-year decline among major soybean producing States. The estimated 2024 soybean acreage in selected Upper Midwest States (with the change from 2023): Illinois at 10.7 million acres (up 350,000 acres); Iowa at 9.9 million acres (down 50,000 acres); Minnesota at 7.6 million acres (up 250,000 acres); North Dakota at 6.8 million acres (up 600,000 acres); Indiana at 5.75 million acres (up 250,000 acres); Missouri at 5.6 million acres (same as 2023); Nebraska at 5.3 million acres (up 50,000 acres); South Dakota at 5.1 million acres (same as 2023); Ohio at 4.85 million acres (up 100,000 acres); Kansas at 4.55 million acres (up 120,000 on acres); and Wisconsin at 2.15 million acres (up 40,000 acres).
JUNE 28th  QUARTERLY  GRAIN  STOCKS  SUMMARY
The USDA Quarterly Grain Socks Report was also released on June 28, which showed the highest inventory of corn stored on farms since 1988. Following is a brief summary of the June 28th Grain Stocks Report:
Corn --- The June 28th report indicated a total U.S. corn inventory of just over 4.99 billion bushels on June 1, 2024, which represented an increase of about 22 percent from the corn inventory a year ago on June 1. Approximately 60 percent of the total U.S. corn inventory, or just over 3 billion bushels, was in on-farm storage on June 1, which is up 37 percent from last year at this time. The level of on-farm corn inventories on June 1st included 570 million bushels in Iowa, 460 million bushels in Minnesota, 445 million bushels in Illinois, 250 million bushels in Nebraska, 225 million bushels in South Dakota, 205 million bushels in Indiana, 135 million bushels in Missouri, and 120 million bushels in North Dakota, all of which are well above comparable on-farm inventories in recent years. The June 28th report implied that the estimated total U.S. corn usage from March 1 to May 31 was 3.36 billion bushels, which compares to 3.29 billion bushels during that same time period in 2023.
 
Soybeans --- The Grain Stocks Report showed a total of 970 million bushels of soybeans in inventory as of June 1, 2024, which is an increase of 22 percent from a year ago. It was estimated that 466 million bushels of soybeans, were still in on-farm storage on June 1, 2024, which is up 44 percent from a year ago. This included 83 million bushels in Iowa, 68 million bushels in Minnesota, 66 million bushels in Illinois, 39 million bushels in Ohio, 38 million bushels in Indiana, 37 million bushels in South Dakota, 30 million bushels in Missouri, 18.5 million bushels in Nebraska, and 17.5 million bushels in North Dakota. The level of on-farm soybean stocks on June 1st is significantly higher in many States compared to other recent years.  The June 28th report implied that the estimated total U.S. soybean usage from March 1 to May 31 was 875 million bushels, which was down two percent from the same time period a year ago.
 
GRAIN  PRICE  IMPACTS
December corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 13 cents per bushel following the release of the USDA Crop Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports on June 28. The CBOT December corn futures price declined by ten percent or $.47 per bushel during the month of June, which is not a normal early Summer price pattern. This obviously is being driven by the much larger U.S. corn inventory and higher than expected 2024 corn acreage, along with stagnant corn usage and export levels compared to a year ago. The CBOT December corn futures price closed at $4.20 per bushel on June 28. This compares to December CBOT closing futures  prices in recent years following the June USDA reports of $4.95 per bushel in 2023, $6.20 per bushel in 2022, $5.54 per bushel in 2021, $3.50 per bushel in 2020, and $4.31 per bushel in 2019. New crop 2024 corn price bids for harvest delivery have dropped below $4.00 per bushel at many locations in the Upper Midwest.
 
CBOT November soybean futures held firm following the June 28th USDA reports and were trading at $11.04 per bushel. Even though the level of soybean stocks in inventory is up from a year ago, the 2024 estimated soybean acreage came in a bit lower than was anticipated by the grain trade. The $11.04 per bushel on June 28 compares to November CBOT closing futures  prices in recent years following the June USDA reports of $13.43 per bushel in 2023, $14.10 per bushel in 2022, $13.99 per bushel in 2021, and $8.91 per bushel in 2020, and $9.32 per bushel in 2019. New crop 2024 corn price bids for harvest delivery have dropped below $10.50 per bushel at many locations in the Upper Midwest, with slightly higher bids at soybean processing plants.
 
The stagnant or declining cash and forward contract prices for both corn and soybeans during June is limiting opportunities for farmers to sell remaining grain inventories and to forward price some of the expected 2024 corn and soybean production. Unless there are some weather issues later in the growing season that cut into the anticipated 2024 U.S. crop production, it may be difficult to get any significant increases in corn and soybean price levels between now and harvest-time. Farmers with remaining 2023 corn and soybeans to sell will need to watch for some localized short-term rallies in grain markets to liquidate the remaining inventories before harvest.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960;  E-mail - [email protected]