May 12 WASDE Report Offers First Look At 2026-27 Ending Stocks

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on May 12 was the first official USDA projected corn and soybean production levels, usage, and ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year. The latest WASDE Report also updated supply and demand estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026 for corn and soybeans, and on May 31, 2026 for wheat and other small grain crops. From a grain marketing standpoint, the initial reaction to the WASDE report was positive for corn, soybeans, and wheat, before markets declined by the end of the week.
Following are some highlights of the latest USDA WASDE Report:
CORN
Based on the May 12 USDA WASDE Report, the projected corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year are estimated at 2.14 billion bushels, which is similar to the April Report, but is approximately 35 percent above the estimated carryout levels in May a year ago. The anticipated 2025-26 corn ending stocks represents a substantial increase from the carryout levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn usage for 2025-2026 at just under 16.5 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, exports, etc., which is an increase of 8.8 percent or 1.3 billion bushels compared to the 2024-25 usage level. The higher estimated corn usage was primarily due to increases in the estimated amount of corn used for feed and ethanol production in 2025-26, as well as significant increase in corn export levels, compared to a year earlier. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in 2024-25 and 11.8 percent in 2023-24
The May WASDE Report also offered an initial USDA estimate for corn carryover levels in the 2026-27 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2027. The corn ending stocks were estimated at just under 1.98 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of about 185 million bushels compared to the end of the 2023-24 marketing year. The projected 2026-27 the carryout level was very near the average grain-trade estimates. The 2026-27 stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease to 12.1 percent, compared to a year earlier. USDA is estimating the total corn supply for 2026-27 at 18.16 billion bushels, with the total corn usage for the year at just over 16.2 billion bushels. USDA is forecasting a slight decrease in corn usage for livestock feed and lower U.S. corn export levels, along with stable corn usage for ethanol production in 2026-27.
USDA is estimating total U.S. corn production in 2026 at nearly 16 billion bushels, which would be down 6 percent from the record 2025 production of just over 17 billion bushels. The USDA Report expects an estimated 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted in the U.S. in 2026, which compares to 98.8 million acres in 2025 and 90.9 million acres in 2024. Some analysts feel that the final 2026 corn acreage may be reduced slightly, due to the fertilizer supply and price. USDA is projecting the average U.S. corn yield at 183 bushels per acre in 2026, which would be below the record average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, but above the 2024 average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. Corn planting progress in 2026 has been running ahead of normal in many areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt, but has been slightly behind normal in portions of the northern Corn Belt.
In the latest WASDE report, USDA is projecting the 2026-27 average U.S “on-farm” corn price at $4.40 per bushel. The 2026-27 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027. As of May 12, USDA is estimating the U.S. average corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which is the same as the April estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year ends on August 31, 2026. The current projected corn price estimates compare to recent final national average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22.
SOYBEANS
Based on the May 12 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is a decline of 10 million bushels from the April estimate and was close to the average grain trade estimates. The projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks are similar to recent soybean carryover levels of 325 million bushels in 2024-25 and 342 million bushels in 2023-24; however, it would be significantly higher than the carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23 and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. The projected ending stocks are still well below 525 million bushels in 2019-20 and 909 million bushels in 2018-19.
Total soybean usage for 2025-26 is estimated to be just over 4.27 billion bushels, which is down from the total usage of 4.42 billion bushels in 2024-25. Soybean export levels for 2025-26 are projected to decrease by 352 million bushels compared to a year earlier, which was somewhat offset by a projected increase185 million bushels in soybeans used for processing, compared to crush levels a year earlier. The actual soybean usage in the next couple years will likely depend on actual export volume to China and other countries, as well as the soybean crush levels that result from the new or expanded soybean processing plants that have come on board recently.
The latest WASDE Report projects soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels at the end of the 2026-27 marketing year that ends on August 31, 2027, which would be a decline of 30 million bushels from 2025-26 levels. USDA is estimating the U.S. soybean supply to increase by 173 million bushels in 2026-27; while the total soybean usage is expected to increase by 218 million bushels compared to usage for 2025-26 levels The increased usage is due to increases in both soybean crush and export levels. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2026-27 is estimated at 6.9 percent, which compares to 8 percent in 2025-26 and 7.4 percent in 2024-25.
Total U.S. soybean production in 2026 is estimated at 4.435 billion bushels, which would be an increase from the estimated production of 4.26 billion bushels in 2025, and is similar to 4.37 billion bushels in 2024. Planted soybean acres for 2026 are projected at 83.7 million acres, which is up from 80.4 million acres in 2025, but lower than 86.2 million acres in 2024. USDA is estimating a national average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2026, which would match the record U.S. soybean yield in 2025. Other recent U.S. average soybean yields were 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023 and 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022.
USDA is estimating the U.S “on-farm” soybean average price at $11.40 per bushel for the 2026-27 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2027. The preliminary price estimate for the 2026-27 marketing year would represent an increase of $1.00 per bushel from the current 2025-26 average price estimate of $10.40 per bushel. The projected 2026-27 and 2025-26 soybean prices compare to final average soybean prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The final average soybean price for 2026-27 will likely be highly dependent on the 2026 soybean production in the U.S. and South America, as well as the actual soybean crush and export levels.
WHEAT
The May 12 WASDE Report projected U.S. wheat ending stocks to decrease by 173 million bushels to 762 million bushels by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year on May 31, 2027. This compares to estimated ending stocks of 935 million bushels for 2025-26 and 855 million bushels in 2024-25. Total U.S. wheat usage for 2026-27 is estimated at just over 1.87 billion bushels, which is a decrease of 156 million bushels from projected usage levels for 2025-26, due to likely declines in both feed usage and export levels. U.S. wheat acreage in 2026 is projected at 43.8 million acres, which is down from 45.3 million acres in 2025 and 46.3 million acres in 2024. Total U.S. wheat production in 2026 is expected to decrease by 21 percent from a year earlier to 1.56 billion bushels. The 2026 U.S, average wheat yield is estimated at 47.5 bushels per acre. USDA is projecting the average “on-farm” wheat price at $6.50 per bushel for 2026-27 and $5.00 per bushel for 2025-26, which compares to other recent final national average prices of $5.52 in 2024-25, $8.83 in 2022-23, and $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22.
Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]