September 12 USDA Crop Report Lowers U.S. Yield Estimates

The September 12 USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Report adjusted the projected 2025 U.S. average yields for both corn and soybeans slightly lower from the August estimates; however, both the corn and soybeans yields would still be at record level. USDA also increased the expected 2025 harvested acreage for both corn and soybeans in the September report from earlier reports, which basically offset lower yield projections. The end result was very little change from the August report in the estimated overall 2025 corn and soybean production levels. Some grain marketing analysts feel that the USDA corn yield and production estimates may be a bit high, given some of the late season dryness and disease pressure that is affecting the 2025 crops in some areas.
The grain market response for corn and soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the report was fairly positive. This would seem to indicate that most of the USDA estimates were already calculated into the CBOT prices, and that there were other factors influencing the grain markets. These factors could include some questions by grain traders regarding the NASS yield projections in some States and prospects for potential trade agreements with China and other countries. The latest NASS yield estimates were based on U.S. crop conditions as of September 1st; and were the first 2025 USDA yield estimates that included actual field data.
The September 12 USDA Report projects the 2025 U.S. average corn yield at the record level of 186.7 bushels per acre, which was decreased from 188.8 bushels per acre in the August report. The projected 2025 national corn yield compares to the current record yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, and 177 bushels per acre in 2021. A year ago, USDA estimated the average corn yield at 183.6 bushels per acre in the September report; however, the final 2024 average yield was 4.3 bushels per acre below that level. USDA estimated 2025 harvested corn acreage in the U.S. at 90 million acres, which included estimates from crop acreage certification data filed by producers through the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. This was an increase of 1.3 million acres from the August estimate, and compares to 82.9 million harvested acres in 2024. USDA is now estimating total U.S. corn production for 2025 at the record level of just over 16.8 billion bushels, which would be a 13.1 percent increase from the 2024 production level of just under 14.87 billion bushels;
USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2024 average corn yield at the record level of 199 bushels per acre, which is a decrease of 3 bushels per acre from the August estimate. The projected 2025 corn yield compares to the very low 2024 average yield of 174 bushels per acre, 185 bushels per acre, in 2023, and the current record average yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022. The NASS report also lowered Iowa’s projected 2025 average corn yield by 3 bushels per acre to 219 bushels per acre, which would still be a record statewide average yield. This compares to final average yields of 211 bushels per acre in 2024, 201 bushels per acre in 2023, and 200 bushels per acre in 2022.
USDA is projecting Illinois to have a 2025 corn yield of 219 bushels per acre, compared to 217 bushels per acre in 2024; Indiana at 205 bushels per acre, compared to 198 bushels per acre in 2024; Nebraska at 191 bushels per acre, compared to 188 bushels per acre in 2024; and South Dakota at 167 bushels per acre, compared to 164 bushels per acre in 2024. The 2025 corn yield estimates in some other States include, North Dakota at 145 bushels per acre, compared to 149 bushels per acre in 2024; Wisconsin at 184 bushels per acre, compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024; and Ohio at 194 bushels per acre, compared to 177 bushels per acre in 2024.
The USDA Report on September 12 estimated total 2024 U.S. soybean production at just over 4.3 billion bushels, which would be down slightly from the 2024 soybean production of just under 4.37 billion bushels. USDA projected the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53.5 bushels per acre, which was lowered by 0.1 bushels per acre from the August report. The 2025 NASS soybean yield estimate compares to final U.S. soybean yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022, and 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021. The record national average soybean yield was 52 bushels per acre back in 2016. The USDA 2025 soybean yield projection was very close to the average yield estimates by grain trading analysts.
USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2025 average soybean yield at the record level of 53 bushels per acre, which is unchanged from the August estimate. The 2025 yield projection compares to recent statewide yields of 45 bushels per acre in 2024, 48 bushels per acre in 2023, 50 bushels per acre in 2022, and 47 bushels per acre in 2021, as well as the current record statewide soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. The Iowa’s estimated 2025 soybean yield is at the record level of 65 bushels per acre, which is up by 2 bushels per acre from the August estimate. The 2025 estimated yield compares to 60 bushels per acre in 2024, 58 bushels per acre in 2023, 58.5 bushels per acre in 2022, and the current record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
The projected 2025 yields in major soybean producing eastern Corn Belt States include Illinois at 65 bushels per acre, compared to 64 bushels per acre in 2024; Indiana at 61 bushels per acre, compared to 59 bushels per acre in 2024; and Ohio at 58 bushels per acre, compared to 50 bushels per acre in 2024. Most soybean yields in the Western Corn Belt States are expected increase from 2024 yield levels. Soybean yield estimates for 2025 include Nebraska at 61 bushels per acre, compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2024; South Dakota at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre in 2024; and Wisconsin at 55 bushels per acre, compared to 48 bushels per acre in 2024. North Dakota is projected to decline slightly at 37 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 37.5 bushels per acre in 2024.

SEPTEMBER 12 WASDE REPORT
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was also released on September 12, which included the projected adjustments in the 2025 U.S. corn yield and production levels that were referenced earlier. The report projects an increase in the corn usage levels during 2025-26 marketing year, as compared to the 2024-25 corn usage levels. Corn use for livestock feed is expected to increase by 425 million bushels in 2025-26 and corn use for ethanol is projected to increase by 165 million bushels. U.S. corn export levels for 2025-26 are estimated at 2.97 billion bushels, which is up from the estimated export total of 2.83 billion bushels for 2024-25 and 2.25 billion bushels in 2023-24. Corn export levels have been fairly strong in recent months.
The U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 2.11 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 59 percent from the estimated carryover of 1.32 billion bushels for 2024-25. The latest 2025-26 corn ending stocks projection would also be considerably higher than the final corn carryover levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22, and 1.23 billion bushels in 2020-21.
The higher level of projected 2025-26 corn ending stocks continues to put considerable pressure on the corn price projections for the 2025-26 marketing year, which extends from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026. USDA is estimating the average on-farm corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $3.90 per bushel, which is unchanged from the August report. The 2024-25 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2025, is estimated at $4.30 per bushel, which compares to previous final average prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21.
The recent WASDE report projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels, which is an increase of 10 million bushels from the August estimate. The 2025-26 estimated soybean ending stocks are slightly lower than the final estimated 2024-25 ending stocks of 330 million bushels and the 2023-24 ending stocks of 342 million bushels. Other recent soybean ending stocks levels of 264 million bushels for 2022-23 and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. Soybean exports for 2025-26 are projected at 1.68 billion bushels, which would be down from the estimated 1.87 billion bushels for 2024-25 and compares to 1.7 billion bushels in 2023-24. There is some concern that the 2025-26 export level could drop even lower, unless China starts to book purchases of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop.
USDA is projecting the average on-farm soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.00 per bushel, which is $.10 per bushel lower than the August price estimate. The 2024-25 estimated final national average soybean price is also $10.00 per bushel, which compares to national average prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, and $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]