USDA Report Projects A Surprising Record 2025 Corn Yield

The August 12th USDA Crop Report provided a negative shock wave to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) new  crop 2025 corn futures by increasing the projected 2025 national average corn yield by 8 bushels per acre above the July estimate. The projected record 2025 corn yield exceeded the average grain trade estimate by 4.5 bushels per acre. USDA also increased the estimated 2025 U.S. corn acreage by 2.4 million acres, compared to previous estimates. The combination of the increased corn acreage together with the higher than expected 2025 average yield boosted the estimated 2025 total U.S. corn production by over 1 billion bushels, compared to a month earlier. USDA is also projecting a record average U.S. soybean yield in 2025; however, USDA dropped the estimated 2025 harvested soybean acreage by 2.4 million acres. This combination resulted in reduced projections for total U.S. soybean production in 2025 and a reduction in the anticipated soybean ending stocks in 2025-26.   
 
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2025 total U.S. corn production at the record level of 16.741 billion bushels, which would be an increase of about 13 percent from the 2024 corn production of just over 14.86 billion bushels. The 2025 projected U.S. corn production compares to other recent corn production levels of 15.3 billion bushels in 2023, 13.6 billion bushels in 2022, 15.1 billion bushels in 2021, and 14.1 billion bushels in 2020. USDA is estimating the total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain in 2025 at 88.7 million acres, which was increased from 86.8 million acres in the July report. This compares to final harvested acreage of 82.9 million acres in 2024, 86.5 million acres in 2023 and 78.7 million acres in 2022.  
 
The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2025 at the record level of 188.8 bushels per acre, which was increased from 181 bushels per acre from the USDA yield estimate in July. The 2025 yield projection compares to the current record corn yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, and other recent average yields of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022, 176.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 172 bushels per acre in 2020. The “good-to-excellent” crop ratings for the U.S. corn crop in the weekly USDA Crop Progress Reports have been trending quite high throughout the 2025 growing season.
 
USDA is estimating record 2025 corn yields in Minnesota, Iowa, and South Dakota, along with increased 2025 corn yields compared to a year earlier in several other major corn producing States. USDA projects Minnesota’s 2025 average corn yield at the record level of 202 bushels per acre, which is 16 percent above the 2024 statewide corn yield of 174 bushels per acre. The 2025 Minnesota corn yield would compare to other recent average corn yields of 185 bushels per acre in 2023, 195 bushels per acre in 2022, 178 bushels per acre in 2021, and 192 bushels per acre in 2020. The current State record corn yield in Minnesota is 197 bushels per acre in 2017. The growing conditions for corn in 2025 have generally been favorable in much of Minnesota.
 
USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2025 average corn yield at the record level of 222 bushels per acre, which compares to the current record yield of 211 bushels per acre in 2024, 201 bushels per acre in 2023, 200 bushels per acre in 2022, and 205 bushels per acre in 2021. South Dakota is also projected to have a record statewide corn yield in 2025 at 168 bushels per acre, compared to 164 bushels per acre in 2024 and 152 bushels per acre in 2023. Illinois is forecast to have a statewide yield of 221 bushels per acre in 2025, which compares to 217 bushels per acre in 2024 and 206 bushels per acre in 2023. The projected 2025 corn yield in Indiana is 205 bushels per acre, which compares to 198 bushels per acre in 2024 and 203 bushels per acre in 2023.
 
2025 corn yield projections for other states include Nebraska at 192 bushels per acre compared to 188 bushels per acre in 2024, North Dakota at 148 bushels per acre compared to 149 bushels per acre in 2024, Ohio at 196 bushels per acre compared 177 bushels per acre in 2024, and Wisconsin at 185 bushels per acre compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024. Several other Southern and Atlantic States also had significant increases in the 2025 corn yield estimates, compared to a year earlier.
The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2025 U.S. soybean production at just over 4.29 billion bushels, which would be down 2 percent from the 2024 final production of slightly over 4.36 billion bushels. USDA decreased the estimated 2025 harvested soybean acreage to 80.1 million acres, which was down from 2.4 million acres from the July USDA estimate and compares to 86.1 million acres in 2024. USDA is projecting the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53.6 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 1.1 bushels per acre from the July estimate. The 2025 projected soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020. The current record U.S. soybean yield is 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016.
 
The recent USDA report lists several Midwestern States likely to have very strong statewide soybean yields in 2025, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Iowa. The estimated 2025 soybean yield in Illinois is 65 bushels per acre compared to 64 bushels per acre in 2024, Indiana at 62 bushels per acre compared to 59 bushels per acre in 2024; and Ohio at 57 bushels per acre compared to 50 bushels per acre in 2024. Iowa’s 2025 soybean yield is estimated at the record level of 63 bushels per acre, compared to 60 bushels per acre in 2024, 58 bushels per acre in 2023 and the current statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
 
The 2025 average soybean yield in Minnesota is estimated at the record level of 53 bushels per acre, which compares to 45 bushels per acre in 2024, 48 bushels per acre in 2023, and 50 bushels per acre in 2022. The statewide record soybean yield was 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected 2025 average soybean yields in other States include Nebraska at 57 bushels per acre compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2024, Wisconsin at 53 bushels per acre compared to 48 bushels per acre in 2024, North Dakota at 36 bushels per acre compared to 37.5 bushels per acre in 2024, and South Dakota at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre in 2024.
 
AUGUST 12  WASDE  REPORT
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2025 updated estimated U.S. corn production of 16.74 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 88.7 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks are now projected at just over 2.1 billion bushels, which was an increase of 457 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at just over 1.3 billion bushels, which compares to other recent carryout levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, and 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23.
 
USDA is projecting the market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $3.90 per bushel, which is a decline of $.30 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026. The 2024-25 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2025, is now estimated at $4.30 per bushel, which was unchanged from the July estimate. These estimates compare to recent national MYA prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21. The closing price for CBOT December corn futures following the August 12 report was $3.94 per bushel, which compares to prices of $4.01 per bushel in 2024, $4.76 per bushel in 2023 and $6.96 per bushel in 2022, following the release of the August WASDE report.   
 
The recent WASDE report projected the 2025 U.S. soybean production level at just over 4.29 billion bushels, based on 80.1 million harvested acres and a U.S. soybean yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels, which was a decrease of 20 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2024-25 ending stocks are projected at 330 million bushels. USDA is projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.10 per bushel and at $10.00 per bushel for the 2023-24 marketing year. This compares to recent national average prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22, and $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21. The closing CBOT November soybean futures price on August 12 was $10.33 per bushel, which compares to $9.82 per bushel in 2024, $13.07 per bushel in 2023 and $14.88 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.   
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]