Usda Report Projects Record 2024 Corn And Soybean Yields

The USDA Crop Report that was released on August 12 projects record average U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2024. The projected 2024 national average yield levels for both corn and soybeans were increased from the USDA yield estimates a month ago in July. The August yield and production estimates were based on crop conditions as of August 1 that resulted from a National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) survey of U.S. crop producers in early August. The USDA estimated national average yields for both corn and soybeans, as well as the total 2024 production and 2024-25 ending stocks for soybeans, were above the average estimates of grain marketing analysts. The 2024 USDA projections for corn production was very similar to the average estimates by the analysts, while the USDA estimates for corn ending stocks were slightly lower than the grain industry estimates.
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2024 total U.S. corn production at 15.147 billion bushels, which would be a slight decrease of about one percent from the 2023 record production level of just over 15.3 billion bushels. The 2024 projected U.S. corn production compares to other recent corn production levels of 13.6 billion bushels in 2022, 15.1 billion bushels in 2021, 14.1 billion bushels in 2020, and 13.6 billion bushels in 2019. USDA is estimating the total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain in 2024 at 82.7 million acres, which was reduced from 83.4 million acres in the July report. This compares to final harvested acreage of 86.5 million acres in 2023 and 78.7 million acres in 2022.
The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2024 at the record level of 183.1 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 2.1 bushels per acre from the NASS yield estimate in July. The 2024 yield projection compares to the current record corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and other recent average yields 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022, 176.7 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019, and 176.4 bushels per acre in 2018. There are widespread differences in 2024 corn yield estimates across the U.S., ranging from excellent to greatly reduced yields, depending on where farms are located.
USDA is estimating record 2024 corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. USDA is also projecting increased corn yields in 2024 compared to 2023 yields in North Dakota and Missouri, while the average yield in Minnesota is expected to stay the same as last year and the Ohio average yield is expected to decline from the 2023 level. USDA projects Minnesota’s 2024 average corn yield at 185 bushels per acre, which is the same as 2023 and compares to other recent average corn yields of 195 bushels per acre in 2022, 178 bushels per acre in 2021, 192 bushels per acre in 2020, and 173 bushels per acre in 2019. The State record corn yield remains at 197 bushels per acre in 2017. There is a wide range of expected corn yields across Minnesota depending on timely planting, favorable growing conditions, and crop loss from the excessive rainfall in June.
USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2024 average corn yield at the record level of 209 bushel per acre, which compares to 201 bushels per acre in 2023, 200 bushels per acre in 2022, and the current record yield of 205 bushels per acre in 2021. Illinois is forecast to have a record statewide yield of 225 bushels per acre in 2024, which compares to 206 bushels per acre in 2023 and 214 bushels per acre in 2022. The projected record corn yield in Indiana for 2024 is at 207 bushels per acre, which compares to 203 bushels per acre in 2023 and 190 bushels per acre in 2022.
2024 corn yield projections for other states include Nebraska at 194 bushels per acre compared to 182 bushels per acre in 2023, South Dakota at 162 bushels per acre compared to 152 bushels per acre in 2023, North Dakota at 144 bushels per acre compared to 141 bushels per acre in 2023, and Wisconsin at 183 bushels per acre compared to 176 bushels per acre in 2023. The estimated 2024 corn yield in Ohio is 188 bushels per acre, which would be a 5 percent decline from the final 2023 yield of 198 bushels per acre. Other States with significant estimated increases in 2023 corn yields compared to a year ago include Missouri, Kansas, and Texas.
The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2024 U.S. soybean production at the record level of just over 4.59 billion bushels, which would be up 10 percent from the 2023 final production of slightly over 4.16 billion bushels. The current record soybean production was 4.54 billion bushels in 2018. USDA increased the estimated 2024 harvested soybean acreage to 86.3 million acres, which was increased by 1 million acres from the July USDA estimate and compares to 82.4 million acres in 2023. USDA is projecting the 2024 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53.3 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 1.2 bushels per acre from the July estimate. The 2024 projected soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020. The current record U.S. soybean yield is 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016.
The recent USDA report lists several Midwestern States that are likely to have a record statewide soybean yield in 2024, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The estimated 2024 soybean yield in Illinois is 66 bushels per acre compared to 63 bushels per acre in 2022, Indiana at 62 bushels per acre compared to 61 bushels per acre in 2023; and Ohio at 59 bushels per acre compared to 58 bushels per acre in 2023. Iowa’s 2024 soybean yield is estimated at 61 bushels per acre, compared to 58 bushels per acre in 2023 and just below the statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
Soybean yield estimates for 2024 are also expected to increase in Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, North and South Dakota. Minnesota’s 2024 average soybean yield is estimated at 49 bushels per acre, which compares to 48 bushels per acre in 2023, 50 bushels per acre in 2022, and 47 bushels per acre in 2021. The statewide record soybean yield was 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected 2024 average soybean yields in other States include Nebraska at 59 bushels per acre compared to 51.5 bushels per acre in 2023, Wisconsin at 53 bushels per acre compared to 51 bushels per acre in 2023, North Dakota at 36 bushels per acre compared to 35.5 bushels per acre in 2023, and South Dakota at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 44 bushels per acre in 2023.
AUGUST 12 WASDE REPORT
The updated USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2024 estimated U.S. corn production of 15.14 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 82.7 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 183.1 bushels per acre. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks are now projected at just under 2.1 billion bushels, which was a decline of 24 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2023-24 are estimated at just over 1.86 billion bushels, which compares to other recent carryout levels of 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22.
USDA is projecting the average on-farm corn price for the 2024-25 marketing year, which extends from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025, at $4.20 per bushel, which was decreased by $.10 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2023-24 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2024, is now estimated at $4.65 per bushel. These estimates compare to recent national average prices of $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20. The closing December corn futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the August 12 report was $4.01 per bushel, which compares to $4.76 per bushel in 2023 and $6.96 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.
The recent WASDE report projected the 2024 U.S. soybean production level at just under 4.6 billion bushels, based on 86.3 million harvested acres and an estimated U.S. soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre. The 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 560 million bushels, which was an increase of 125 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2023-24 soybean ending stocks are projected at 345 million bushels. USDA is now projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing year at $10.80 per bushel and at $12.50 per bushel for the 2023-24 marketing year. This compares to recent national average prices of $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20. The closing November soybean futures price on the CBOT on August 12 report was $9.81 per bushel, which compares to $13.07 per bushel in 2023 and $14.88 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]