USDA Reports Released Following The Government Shutdown

The highly anticipated November USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was released on November 14. This was the first WASDE report to be released since September 12, as there was no monthly WASFE report in October due to the shutdown of the federal government for 43 days that started on October 1. The USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) also released the November Crop Production Report on November 14, which included updated 2025 crop yield projections for corn, soybeans, and other crops. This was the first update in U.S. crop yield estimates since the September report. USDA did modestly adjust the expected 2025 corn and soybean yields downward, but not nearly to the reduction levels that many farmers and grain marketing analysts were anticipating. The immediate grain market reaction following the release of the USDA reports was negative on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT); however, corn and soybean prices have shown an overall positive trend in recent weeks.
 
 
USDA Slightly Decreases 2025 Corn And Soybean Yield Projections
Based on the USDA Crop Production Report released on November 14, the projected U.S. average corn yield for 2025 will be a record at 186 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous record average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in 2023. The 2024 estimated average yield also compares to other recent U.S. corn yields of 177.3 in 2023, 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, and 172 bushels per acre in 2020. The estimated U.S. average yield was slightly lowered from the September estimate of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is higher than the average grain trade estimate of 183.5 bushels per acre. A year ago, USDA projected the 2024 U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre in the November report; however, it was lowered to final yield of 179.3 bushels per acre in later USDA reports. Some experts feel this scenario may occur again in future months before we arrive at a final 2025 average corn yield.
Minnesota is projected to have a 2025 yield of 193 bushels per acre, compared to 174 bushels per acre in 2024 and just below the record yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022. Iowa is projected to have a record corn yield of 216 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 211 bushels per acre in 2024. Other projected state average corn yields for 2025 compared to 2024 yields are Illinois at 221 bushels per acre (record), compared to 217 bushels per acre; Indiana at 206 bushels per acre (record), compared to 198 bushels per acre; Ohio at 194 bushels per acre, compared to 177 bushels per acre; Nebraska at 191 bushels per acre, compared to 188 bushels per acre; Wisconsin at 183 bushels per acre (record), compared to 174 bushels per acre; South Dakota at 173 bushels per acre (record), compared to 164 bushels per acre; and North Dakota at 146 bushels per acre, compared to 149 bushels per acre.
USDA is projecting a record U.S. soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025, which is a decrease of 0.5 bushels from the September estimate. The projected 2025 average soybean yield compares to recent average yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021,50.2 bushels per acre in 2020, the previous record U.S. soybean yield was 52.0 bushels per acre in 2016.
USDA is estimating the 2025 Minnesota soybean yield at 51 bushels per acre, which is up from 45 bushels per acre in 2024, 48 bushels per acre in 2023 and 50 bushels per acre in 2022, but slightly below than the record yield of 52 bushels per acre in 2016. Iowa is projected to have a 2025 soybean yield of 65 bushels per acre (record), compared to 60 bushels per acre in 2024 and the previous record yield of 63 bushels per acre in 2021. Estimated 2025 soybean yields in other States compared to 2024 yields include Illinois at 65 bushels per acre (record), compared to 64 bushels per acre; Indiana at 59 bushels per acre, same as 2024; Ohio at 53 bushels per acre, compared to 50 bushels per acre; Nebraska at 64 bushels per acre, compared to 57.5 bushels per acre; Wisconsin at 55 bushels per acre, compared to 48 bushels per acre; South Dakota at 48 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre; and North Dakota at 34 bushels per acre, compared to 37.5 bushels per acre.
 
 
Highlights From The November WASDE Report
The November WASDE report slightly lowered 2025 corn and soybean production estimates, based on reductions in the expected final U.S. crop yields for 2025, as well as adjusting the 2025-26 beginning grain socks to match the September 30 USDA grain stocks data. There were some adjustments to corn and soybean usage levels from previous reports. Overall, there was minor changes in the projected 2025-26 corn and soybean carryover amount by the end of the current marketing year on August 31, 2026. Futures prices on the CBOT decreased following the WASDE report; however, by Nov. 17 the CBOT futures prices had rebounded quickly.
The November WASDE report included the updated 2025 national average corn yield of 186 bushels per acre and the 2025 U.S. harvested corn acreage of 90 million acres, resulting in an estimated record total U.S. corn production of 16.75 billion bushels for 2025. This compares to 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, and just under 13.7 billion bushels in 2022. Total corn usage for the 2025-26 marketing year is now estimated at just over 16.15 billion bushels, which is up 6.7 percent from 15.14 billion bushels in 2024-25. USDA is projecting slight increases in the amount of corn used for feed and ethanol in the current marketing year, along with an increase of 245 million bushels in corn exports compared to a year earlier.
USDA is now estimating 2025-2026 U.S. corn ending stocks at just over 2.15 billion bushels, which was up by 44 million bushels from the September estimate. This compares to previous carryout levels of an estimated 1.53 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and nearly 1.34 billion bushels in 2021-22. Based on current estimates, the U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio would be at 13.3 percent for 2025-26, which compares to previous levels of 10.1 percent for 2024-25, 11.8 percent for 2023-24, 9.9 percent for 2022-23, and 9.2 percent for 2021-22. The increased level of corn supply could keep local basis levels fairly wide for future corn marketing opportunities in many portions of the Upper Midwest.
Based on the November WASDE report, USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $4.00 per bushel, which was up $.10 from the September report. The USDA marketing year average price estimates are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2025 crop year from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026; however, this does not represent estimated prices for either the 2025 or 2026 calendar year. The projected 2025-26 national average corn price of $4.00 per bushel would be the lowest since the 2019-20 price of $3.56 per bushel, and compares to final average corn prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, and $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23.
Total U.S. soybean production for 2025 is now estimated at just over 4.25 billion bushels, which was reduced slightly from the September estimate. The anticipated production is based on harvested soybean acreage of 80.3 million acres and a final yield of 53 bushels per acre. Total soybean demand for 2025-26 is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, which represents a decrease from the usage level of just under 4.43 billion bushels in 2024-25. The most notable change was a projected reduction of 240 million bushels in soybean export levels compared to a year ago; however, it is not known if the recent China trade deal was factored into these export estimates.
The U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 290 million bushels, which was a decrease of 10 million bushels from the September WASDE report and compares to recent soybean carryout levels of 316 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, and 264 million bushels in 2022-23. The projected 2025-26 carryout level is still below the very high ending stocks of 523 million bushels in 2019-20 and 913 million bushels in 2018-19. The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is estimated at 6.7 percent, which is down from 7.1 percent in 2024-25 and 7.3 percent in 2023-24, and is far lower than the ratio of 23 percent in 2018-19. USDA raised the projected U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year to $10.50 per bushel, which was up $.50 per bushel from the September estimate. The projected 2025-26 average price compares to recent price levels of $10.00 per bushel on 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]