Very Little Change In Latest WASDE Report

The March 11 USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report did not offer many significant changes from the February WASDE report. The 2024-25 ending stocks for soybeans, and wheat are expected to increase slightly from a year earlier; however, the 2024-25 corn carry-over level is expected to decline from the previous year. The expected 2024-25 market year average (MYA) prices for soybeans and wheat were lowered slightly compared to a month earlier, while the corn MYA price projection stayed the same in the March estimates. All eyes will now be on the USDA 2025 Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks reports that will be released on March 31, as well as early season growing conditions in the Midwest.
Corn
The latest WASDE report estimates 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which is the same as the February WASDE report and would be down 12.6 percent from a year earlier. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks compare to a carry-out levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 bushels in 2021-22. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is estimated at 10.9 percent, which compares to ratios of 11.8 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23 and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. The current stocks-to-use ratio is still well below the high corn stocks-to-use ratios of 14.6 percent for 2018-19, and 14.5 percent in 2017-18. The current projected carryout level does provide some potential for rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop during the 2025 growing season.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $4.35 per bushel, which is the same as the February estimate. The projected 2024-25 MYA corn price compares to recent national average prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.57 per bushel for 2019-2020. The 2024-2025 WASDE price estimates are the expected average farm-level prices for corn and soybeans from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent the average prices for either the 2024 or the 2025 calendar year.
Soybeans
The latest USDA report kept soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year in the latest WASDE report are estimated at 380 million bushels, which is the same as the February WASDE report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels for 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21. The projected soybean ending stocks for the current year would be highest in the past five years but would still be considerably lower than the 913 million bushel carry-out level in 2018-19, which was during the last U.S. trade war with China.
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is an increase from the ratios of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22, and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The lowest soybean stocks-to-use level in recent times at 2.6 percent in 2013. Improvement in soybean prices in the coming months may be limited, unless there are issues with South America production levels, or unless drought conditions develop in the primary U.S. soybean production areas in 2025.
USDA is now projecting the U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $9.95 per bushel, which is a decline of $.15 per bushel from the February estimate. The estimated 2024-25 market year average soybean price is $2.45 per bushel below the final MYA price a year ago, and would be the lowest average price since the 2020-21 marketing year. The 2024-25 price estimate compares to other recent yearly average soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20, and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19.
Wheat
The March 11 WASDE report estimated the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 at 819 million bushels, which is an increase of 43.7 percent in the past two years. The projected 2024-25 wheat carryout levels compare to 794 million bushels in 2023-24, 570 million bushels in 2022-23, and 674 million bushels in 2021-22. The 2024-25 farm-level average wheat price is now projected at $5.50 per bushel, which is down $.05 per bushel from the February estimated price. The 2024-25 wheat price estimate compares to other recent MYA price levels of $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22, $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21, and $4.58 per bushel in 2019-20. The 2024-25 MYA price for wheat and other small grains is the average farm-level price in the U.S. from June 1, 2024 until May 31, 2025.
Impact on Potential 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Many crop producers in the Midwest were enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for corn and soybeans the 2024 crop year, and are now wondering about the potential for 2024 ARC-CO payments later this year. For producers that enrolled in the “price-only” PLC program in 2024, the final market year average (MYA) price needs to drop below the crop reference price to earn a payment. Payments in the ARC-CO program are based on a final county revenue (2024 county yield x final MYA price), compared to a county benchmark (BM) revenue (county BM yield x 2024 BM price). The marketing year to determine the 2024 MYA prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025, and from June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025 for wheat and other small grains.
Following is an updated summary of potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the March USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2024 PLC payments are not likely; however, 2024 ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 2-3 percent below the 2024 county benchmark yield (8-9 bushel per acre yield decline in many counties).
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $9.95 per bushel. This is $.69 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $1.17 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2024 PLC payments are not likely. ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield that is about 4-5 percent below the county benchmark yield (2-3 bushel per acre yield decline in many counties).
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.50 per bushel. This is at the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments to begin and is $.71 below the 2024 benchmark price. Wheat PLC payments would be initiated with any further decline in the MYA price by June 1, 2025. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield (2-3 bushels per acre yield decline in many counties).
Any 2024 ARC-CO or PLC payments will not be paid until October, 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]