Very Little Change In The June 11 WASDE Report

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on June 11 did not change estimated 2026 corn or soybean production levels, and did not make any significant adjustments in the projected 2026-27 demand levels for either corn or soybeans. The only significant change in the June WASDE report from the May monthly report was a decline of 0.5 bushels per acre in the projected 2026 national average wheat yield, with a corresponding adjustment to the estimated 2026 wheat production and the 2026-27 ending stocks. There were no adjustments to the 2026-27 corn and soybean carryout levels.
 
Most grain marketing analysts viewed the June WASDE Report as generally “neutral” for both the corn and soybean market; however, there is some uncertainty with both crops related to the estimated 2026 acreage and production levels. The supply, production, ending stocks, and price projections in the current WASDE Report are for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years. The USDA marketing year for corn and soybeans for the 2025-26 began on September 1, 2025, and ends on August 31, 2026, and for the 2025-26 marketing year ends begins on September 1, 2026, and ends on August 31, 2027. The 2025-26 marketing year for wheat and small grains ended on May 31, 2026, and the 2026-27 marketing year extends from June 1, 2026, until May 31, 2027.
 
Following are some highlights of the June 11th USDA WASDE Report:
 
CORN
USDA is projecting 2025-26 corn ending stocks at 2.14 billion bushels, which is the same as the May estimate., and is the highest in recent years. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks estimate compares to 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. The projected corn supply for the balance of the 2025-26 marketing year remains quite large in many areas, which is could limit support for “old crop” corn prices this Summer. Farmers with some of last year’s corn still in storage will want to watch for rallies in local cash corn bids in the coming weeks to take advantage of the cash corn prices, as well as any short-term improvements in local corn basis levels.   
 
USDA kept the total estimated 2026 U.S. corn production at 15.99 billion bushels, which was the same as the May WASDE Report. The 2026 estimate compares to the record U.S. corn production level of 17.02 billion bushels in 2025, 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, 13.73 billion bushels in 2022 and 15.11 billion bushels in 2021. The projected average U.S. corn yield for 2026 in the June Report is 183 bushels per acre, which is the same as the May estimate. The 2026 yield projection compares to the current record national average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022. The WASDE Report projects 2026 planted corn acres in the U.S at 95.3 million acres and harvested acres at 87.4 million acres. This compares to harvested acres of 91.3 million acres in 2025, 83 million acres in 2024, 86.5 million acres in 2023, and 78.7 million acres in 2022.  
 
USDA is estimating total corn usage for the 2026-27 marketing year at 16.2 billion bushels, which compares to projected final corn usage of 16.45 in 2025-26, 15.13 million bushels for 2024-25 and 14.97 billion bushels in 2023-24. Based on the projected decline U.S. corn acreage in 2026 and the estimated lower national average corn yield in 2026, along with a modest decrease in estimated corn usage, USDA is projecting a decrease in corn ending stocks by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year on August 31, 2027, compared to the current marketing year. The 2026-27 corn ending stocks are estimated at just below 1.96 billion bushels, which is 8.6 percent below the projected 2025-26 ending stocks; however, the 2026-27 ending stocks would still be 26.4 percent above the final 2024-25 ending stocks. The relatively high level of projected ending stocks may limit significant rallies in the 2026 “new crop” corn prices, unless some weather issues develop during the 2026 growing season.
The June 11 WASDE report estimated the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which was the same as a month earlier. USDA also left the 2026-27 corn price estimate unchanged from the May estimate at $4.40 per bushel. The corn price projections for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years compare to the final average corn prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $5.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current corn price projections are still well above the final average prices of $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20 and $3.61 per bushel in 2018-19. Local cash prices in Southern Minnesota for unpriced 2025 corn have dropped to near $3.70 per bushel at many locations, after trading above $4.00 per bushel a few weeks ago. “New crop” corn bids for Fall delivery of the 2026 corn crop are also currently below $4.00 per bushel at most grain elevators and ethanol plants in the region.
 
SOYBEANS
Based on the June 11 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is the same as the May WASDE report. The projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks compare to carryover levels of 325 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. The soybean ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected to decline by 30 million bushels from the anticipated 2025-26 carryout levels, resulting in in ending stocks estimated at 310 million bushels. USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2026-27 at 4.49 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 218 million bushels from the estimated final 2025-26 usage level.
 
USDA is estimating the 2026 planted soybean acres at 84.7 million acres and the projected U.S. average soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, which compares to 81.2 million planted acres and a final national average yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025. Some crop experts feel that the 2026 U.S. soybean acreage could be adjusted higher in the June 30 USDA Crop Acreage Report, due to a shift from corn acres resulting from the higher fertilizer prices. Marketing analysts will also be keeping a close eye on the national average soybean yield, which could be highly variable in future months, depending on growing season weather patterns in the soybean production areas.
 
The June 11 WASDE Report listed the projected average U.S “on-farm” soybean price for the 2026-27 marketing at $11.40 per bushel, which is the same as the May estimate. This would be a $1.00 per bushel above the estimated average soybean price of $10.40 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026. The USDA soybean price projections for 2026-27 and 2025-26 compare to other recent final average prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, and $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23. Soybean prices at processing plants in Southern Minnesota for the remaining 2025 crop were trading just below $11.00 per bushel following the WASDE report. The cash soybean price has declined in recent weeks, after increasing by over $1.00 per bushel earlier this Spring. Contract prices for Fall delivery of the 2026 soybean crop in Southern Minnesota are slightly below the current cash prices at the processing plants, with even lower prices at local elevators.
 
WHEAT
USDA made no changes in the final 2026-27 wheat demand in the latest WASDE report; however, the 2026-27 ending stocks were lowered slightly due to reduction in the estimated 2026 average wheat yield. USDA is projecting total 2026 wheat acres at 43.8 million acres and a 2026 U.S. average wheat yield of 47 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production level of 1.543 billion bushels. This compares to wheat acreage levels on 45.3 million acres in 2025 and 46.3 million acres in 2024, along with final average wheat yields of 53.3 bushels per acre in 2025 and 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024. USDA is projecting the 2026-27 wheat ending stocks at 744 million bushels, which was lowered by 18 million bushels from the May estimate, and compares to carryout levels of 935 million bushels in 2025-26 and 855 million bushels in 2024-25.  USDA estimated the 2026-27 U.S. average wheat price at $6.00 per bushel, which was lowered by $.50 per bushel from the May WASDE report due to current wheat price trends. The 2026-27 price estimate compares to final average wheat prices of $5.05 per bushel in 2025-26 and $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25.  
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]