STATE  FAIR  PURPLE  RIBBON  4-H  AUCTION  ON  AUGUST 27
2022 will mark the 43rd anniversary of the "4-H Purple Ribbon Livestock Auction" at the Minnesota State Fair. The 4-H Purple Ribbon Auction and Scholarship program will be held on Saturday, August 27, at 5:00 PM, in Compeer Arena at the State Fairgrounds. The premiums on approximately 115 purple ribbon 4-H exhibits will be sold in the livestock auction. 4-H Auction scholarships totaling over $115,000.00 will be presented to 53 outstanding junior leaders in the 4-H animal science program during the 2022 4-H Purple Ribbon Auction. Twenty percent of the 4-H Auction proceeds are used to help fund the scholarships and for special 4-H livestock programs across Minnesota throughout the year. The 4-H Auction is sponsored by the Minnesota Livestock Breeders Association (MLBA). For more information on the “4-H Purple Ribbon 4-H Livestock Auction” and the 4-H scholarship program, please refer to the following web site:  https://www.mlbapurpleribbonauction.org/

4-H  BEEF  CHAMPIONSHIP  SCHEDULED  FOR  AUGUST 26
The "4-H Beef Championship Event" will be held at the Minnesota State Fair on Friday, August 26, at 2:00 PM in the Coliseum, at the State Fairgrounds in St. Paul. The Championship Event this year will include the selection of the Grand and Reserve Champion Market Beef, Dairy Steer, Breeding Heifer, Cow/ Calf Pair, and Prospect Market Calf from the 4-H beef exhibits at the 2022 State Fair. The event will also include the selection of the “Top 5” Overall Breeding Heifers, “Top 5 Market Beef”, “Top 3 Cow/Calf Pairs”, and “Top 3 Dairy Steers”. 4-H Beef Interview Champions and MN State Fair Youth Scholarship recipients will also be recognized during this event. The Championship Event will represent the "best of the best" from the nearly 600 4-H members that will be exhibiting 4-H beef projects at the 2022 Minnesota State Fair, according to Kent Thiesse, 4-H Beef Show Coordinator.
Over 2,500 4-H members will be exhibiting beef, dairy, swine, sheep, poultry, rabbits, dairy goats, and llamas at the 2022 Minnesota State Fair on August 24-28. For a complete schedule of 4-H livestock show times and other special activities during the 4-H livestock shows, please refer to the State Fair 4-H web site at: https://extension.umn.edu/4-h-events/4-h-minnesota-state-fair​

Kent Thiesse
MN State Fair 4-H Beef Show Coordinator
and MN State Fair 4-H Auction Finance Chair
(507-381-7960)

T
he August 12 USDA Crop Report projected a decreased average U.S. corn yield in 2022 compared to last year; however, USDA is estimating an increased 2022 national average soybean yield compared to 2021. The projected 2022 national average corn yield levels was reduced from the July USDA estimates, while the soybean yield estimate was increased slightly from a month earlier. The August yield and production projections were based on a National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) survey of over 15,000 crop producers in early August on crop conditions as of August 1. The August USDA corn yield projection was very close to the average estimates by grain marketing analysts, while USDA soybean yield projections were slightly above grain industry estimates.
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2022 total U.S. corn production at 14.36 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of 5 percent from the 2021 production level of just over 15.1 billion bushels. The 2022 projected U.S. corn production also compares to 14.1 billion bushels in 2020, 13.6 billion bushels in 2019, 14.4 billion bushels in both 2018 and 2017 and the current record U.S. corn production of 15.2 billion bushels in 2016. USDA is estimating 2022 total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain at 81.8 million acres, which compares to 85.4 million acres in 2021.

The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2022 at175.4 bushels per acre, which is a decline of 1.6 bushels per acre from the NASS yield estimate in July. This compares to the record U.S. corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019, 176.4 bushels per acre in 2018, and 176.6 bushels in 2017. There is a large diversity in 2022 corn yield estimates across the U.S., with much lower yield projections in many of the drought-stricken States.

USDA is estimating a record 2022 corn yield in four States, including Iowa and Wisconsin. USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2022 average corn yield at 205 bushel per acre. Which is the same as the record statewide yield of 205 bushels per acre in 2021. The 2022 projected corn yield would be well above the final 2020 corn yield of 178 bushels per acre that was greatly reduced by derecho windstorm that swept across Iowa that year. The Wisconsin corn yield for 2022 is projected at the record level of 185 bushels per acre, which compares to 180 bushels per acre in 2021.

USDA projects Minnesota’s 2022 average corn yield at 193 bushels per acre, which would represent an 8 percent increase from the average corn yield of 178 bushels per acre in 2021. The 2022 statewide average corn yield compares to previous statewide corn yields of 192 bushels per acre in 2020, and 173 bushels per acre in 2019. The State record corn yield remains at 197 bushels per acre in 2017. There is a wide range of expected corn yields depending on timely planting, favorable growing conditions, and developing drought conditions in portions of the State in early August.
Other 2022 corn yield estimate are Illinois at 203 bushels per acre, compared to 202 bushels per acre in 2021, Indiana at 189 bushels per acre, compared to 195 bushels per acre in 2021; and Ohio at 190 bushels per acre, compared to 193 bushels per acre in 2021. Nebraska is projected at 181 bushels per acre in 2022, which would be a 7 percent decline from 194 bushels per acre in 2021. North Dakota is estimated to have a 38 percent increase in the average statewide corn yield in 2022 at 145 bushels per acre, up from the drought-reduced yield of 105 bushels per acre in 2021. The 2022 corn yield in South Dakota is estimated at 147 bushels per acre, compared to 135 bushels per acre in 2021. 2022 projected corn yields were greatly reduced in the drought-stricken States of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.

The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2022 U.S. soybean production at 4.53 billion bushels, which would be up slightly from the 2021 production of slightly over 4.43 billion bushels and would be near the current record production level of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018.  USDA is now estimating total 2022 harvested soybean acreage at 87.2 million acres, which compares to 86.3 million acres in 2021. USDA is projecting the 2022 U.S. average soybean yield at 51.9 bushels per acre, which is an increase from the 2021 national average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre, and would potentially tie the record U.S. soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016. The 2022 estimated soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020, 47.4 bushels per acre in 2019, 51.6 bushels per acre in 2018, and 49.1 bushels per acre in 2017.
The recent USDA report lists seven States that are likely to have a record statewide soybean yield in 2022, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The estimated 2022 soybean yield in Illinois is 66 bushels per acre, compared to 64 bushels per acre in 2021; Indiana at 60 bushels per acre, compared to 59.5 bushels per acre in 2021; and Ohio at 57 bushels per acre, compared to 56.5 bushels per acre in 2021. Iowa’s 2022 soybean yield is projected to decline to 58 bushels per acre, down from the statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021, Other recent Iowa soybean yields include 53 bushels per acre in 2020, 55 bushels per acre in 2019, and 57 bushels per acre in 2018. Soybean yield estimates for 2022 are also reduced in Nebraska soybean at 55 bushels per acre, compared to 63 bushels per acre in 2021, and Wisconsin at 52 bushels per acre, compared to 55 bushels per acre in 2021.
Minnesota’s 2022 average soybean yield is estimated at 50 bushels per acre, which compares to 47 bushels per acre in 2021, 49 bushels per acre in 2020, 44 bushels per acre in 2019, 48 bushels per acre in 2018,  and the record State soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. North Dakota is projected to have 37 percent increase in soybean yield in 2022 at 35 bushels per acre, compared to 25.5 bushels per acre in 2021. South Dakota’s yield is expected to increase to 43 bushels per acre in 2022, compared to 40 bushels per acre in 2021.

AUGUST 12  WASDE REPORT
The updated USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2022 estimated U.S. corn production of 14.36 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 81.8 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 175.4 bushels per acre. The 2022-23 corn ending stocks are now projected at 1.39 billion bushels, which was a decline of 82 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2021-22 were adjusted to just over 1.53 billion bushels, which was increased by 20 million bushels from the July estimate. The projected corn carryout levels compare to 2020-21 corn ending stocks of 1.23 billion bushels.

USDA is projecting an average on-farm corn price for the 2022-23 marketing year, which extends from September 1, 2022, through August 31, 2023, at $6.65 per bushel, which is unchanged from the July estimate. The 2021-22 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2022, is now estimated at $5.95 per bushel. These estimates compare to recent national average prices of $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for both 2018-19 and $3.36 per bushel for 2017-18.
The recent WASDE report projected the 2022 U.S. soybean production level of 4.53 billion bushels, based on 87.2 million harvested acres and an estimated U.S. soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre. The 2022-23 soybean ending stocks are now estimated at 245 million bushels, which an increase of 15 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2021-22 soybean ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels. USDA is now projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2022-23 marketing year at $14.40 per bushel and at $13.30 per bushel for the 2021-22 marketing year. This compares to national average prices of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20, $8.47 per bushel in 2018-19, and $9.33 in 2017-18.​

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Sr. Vice President,
MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone  -  (507) 381-7960)
E-mail - kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com)  Web Site - http://www.minnstarbank.com/

MIXED  CROP  CONDITIONS  ACROSS  THE  U.S.
In the national news we continue to hear about the drought and extreme heat in the southern plains and western States, while the focus has been excess rain and flooding in in places like Kentucky and the St. Louis area. Even in the Upper Midwest, there is a wide range of soil moisture and crop conditions across the region, with some areas getting very dry and approaching drought conditions, while other locations actually having received excessive rainfall. Portions of the Upper Midwest States received some much-needed rainfall this past weekend, ranging from a few hundredths of an inch to near two inches in some locations. Most areas received fairly small amounts of precipitation; however, the rainfall provided some much-needed temporary relief to crop deterioration in very dry areas.
 
The southern half of Minnesota provides a great example of the variability in rainfall during June and July. The University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center at Waseca in eastern south-central Minnesota received 4.36 inches of rainfall in June and 4.6 inches in July, for a two-month total of nearly 9 inches, which is less than an inch below the long-term average June and July precipitation for that site. By contrast, the U of M research site at Lamberton in southwest Minnesota received only 1.07 inches of rainfall in June and 1.59 inches in July, for a two-month total of only 2.62 inches, which is well below the long-term average of 7.73 inches for the two-month period. The available stored soil moisture at the Lamberton site is well-below normal and is comparable to late July in 2021.
 
There is a growing area of Minnesota extending from the south edge of the Twin Cities into South Central Minnesota, as well as into portions of West Central Wisconsin, that is categorized in either “moderate drought” (D1) or “severe drought” (D2) category in the latest “U.S. Drought Monitor” on July 26. A large portion of the southern half of the State and the north half of Wisconsin, except for Minnesota counties near the Iowa border, were listed as “abnormally dry” in the latest Drought Monitor. Nearly all of North Dakota and the northern half of Minnesota, as well as northern and eastern South Dakota, are not listed in any drought category or as being abnormally dry in 2022. A year ago in late July, nearly all of these same areas were in the “extreme drought” (D3) or the D2 drought category in late July and early August.
 
According to the latest Drought Monitor” map, the areas categorized by some level of “drought” in the Drought Monitor have been expanding further into the portions of the Midwest in recent weeks. Much of Nebraska, as well as portions of southern South Dakota, and northwest Iowa are now categorized to be in either the moderate drought (D1) or severe drought (D2) category, with a small portion of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa categorized in the extreme drought (D3) category. Nearly the entire western third of the United States is in either severe, extreme, or exceptional drought, with a majority of the region in the two top-level drought categories. About the only exception to being under the intense drought pressure are the northern tier of States near the Canadian border. Areas that are in the extreme or exceptional drought areas are likely seeing significant crop loss and limited forage production, as well as longer term effects on lakes, rivers, streams, and ground water supplies.
 
Sometimes the “Drought Monitor” is somewhat misunderstood. It is meant to measure the overall long-term impacts of extended drought conditions, as compared to representing current crop conditions. This is why some areas that are listed in “moderate” or “severe” drought may still have fairly good crop potential with below average rainfall, provided that these areas have received some timely rainfall. Some portions of the Midwest also benefitted from starting the 2022 growing season with average or above levels of stored soil moisture, which has also helped maintain crop development through some very dry periods during the Summer months. However, it should be noted that the stored soil moisture levels have been rapidly depleted in many locations, with some areas now near zero available stored moisture.
 
The 2022 growing season started out with later-than-normal corn and soybean planting in many areas of the Upper Midwest, with especially delayed planting in North Dakota and portions of western and northern Minnesota, as well as eastern South Dakota. In addition, temperatures were cooler than normal during most of May, which got the planted crop off to a slow start in many areas. The good news is that the warm temperatures in June and July have allowed for rapid development of the crop and have all but eliminated the impacts of the later planting dates, except in those areas on North Dakota and Northern Minnesota that had the extremely late planting dates. In late May the crop “growing degree units” (GDU’s) were nearly 10 percent behind normal at many locations in Southern Minnesota; however, by the end of July, the GDU accumulation since May 1 had actually improved to 5-10 percent above normal in many portions of the region.
 
The weekly USDA Crop Report released on July 25 listed the condition rating of the corn in the U.S. at 61 percent “good-to-excellent”, which declined from 64 percent a week earlier. However, there is a wide variation in the “good-to-excellent” crop ratings across the major corn and soybean producing States. The highest “good-to-excellent” corn rating was 80 percent in Iowa, which is the largest corn producing States in the U.S.  Some of the other higher crop ratings included “good-to-excellent” ratings were 79 percent in Wisconsin, 74 percent, in North Dakota, 71 percent in Illinois, and 65 percent in South Dakota. This compares to the much lower “good-to-excellent” corn ratings of 39 percent in Kansas, 46 percent in Indiana, 53 percent in Missouri, 55 percent in Ohio and 57 percent in Nebraska. Minnesota was at 63 percent, slightly above the national average.  
 
The latest USDA Crop Report listed 59 percent of the U.S. soybean crop as “good-to-excellent”, which also declined by 2 percentage points from a week earlier. Wisconsin had the highest “good-to-excellent” soybean rating in the Midwest at 79 percent, followed closely by Iowa at 75 percent.  By contrast, the “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings were 46 percent in Missouri, 48 percent in Indiana, 51 percent in Kansas and 54 percent in Ohio. The following States were between 60-64 percent “good-to-excellent”, which is just above the national average rating: Nebraska at 60 percent, Illinois at 61 percent, Minnesota and North Dakota at 62 percent, and South Dakota at 64 percent.
 
There is not a lot of historical correlation between weekly crop ratings in early August and final corn and soybean yields. Timely August rainfalls and favorable growing conditions can enhance final yield levels in areas that are not in extreme drought conditions; however, lack of late season rain events can reduce final crop yields in the very dry areas. The latter situation occurred in most of North Dakota, as well as a large portions of South Dakota and western Minnesota in 2021 when very dry conditions from late June until early September greatly reduced final corn and soybean yields. Farmers at many locations in this area experienced their lowest corn and soybean yields since the drought year of 2012. On the other hand, timely rainfall and favorable growing conditions in August and early September enhanced the final 2021 corn and soybean yields in much of southern Minnesota and Iowa, as compared to yield expectations in early August.
 
Some private companies will have Midwest crop tours later in August which may provide some indicators regarding 2022 corn and soybean yield trends in the region and allow for some early projections for total U.S. corn and soybean production in 2022. These crop tours tend to concentrate on the core areas of the Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Southern Minnesota, and Southeast South Dakota, which account for a large percentage of the U.S. corn and soybean production each year. These crop tours will give us some guidance on anticipated 2022 U.S. corn and soybean production; however, given the wide variation in crop conditions across the Midwest, we will likely not have solid U.S. yield and production estimates until well into the harvest season.
 
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Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Sr. Vice President,
              MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN.  (Phone --- (507) 381-7960) 
              E-mail --- kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com)  Web Site --- http://www.minnstarbank.com/