The March 11 USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report did not offer many significant changes from the February WASDE report. The 2024-25 ending stocks for soybeans, and wheat are expected to increase slightly from a year earlier; however, the 2024-25 corn carry-over level is expected to decline from the previous year. The expected 2024-25 market year average (MYA) prices for soybeans and wheat were lowered slightly compared to a month earlier, while the corn MYA price projection stayed the same in the March estimates. All eyes will now be on the USDA 2025 Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks reports that will be released on March 31, as well as early season growing conditions in the Midwest.
Corn
The latest WASDE report estimates 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which is the same as the February WASDE report and would be down 12.6 percent from a year earlier. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks compare to a carry-out levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 bushels in 2021-22. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is estimated at 10.9 percent, which compares to ratios of 11.8 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23 and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. The current stocks-to-use ratio is still well below the high corn stocks-to-use ratios of 14.6 percent for 2018-19, and 14.5 percent in 2017-18. The current projected carryout level does provide some potential for rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop during the 2025 growing season.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $4.35 per bushel, which is the same as the February estimate. The projected 2024-25 MYA corn price compares to recent national average prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.57 per bushel for 2019-2020. The 2024-2025 WASDE price estimates are the expected average farm-level prices for corn and soybeans from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent the average prices for either the 2024 or the 2025 calendar year.
Soybeans
The latest USDA report kept soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year in the latest WASDE report are estimated at 380 million bushels, which is the same as the February WASDE report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels for 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21. The projected soybean ending stocks for the current year would be highest in the past five years but would still be considerably lower than the 913 million bushel carry-out level in 2018-19, which was during the last U.S. trade war with China.
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is an increase from the ratios of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22, and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The lowest soybean stocks-to-use level in recent times at 2.6 percent in 2013. Improvement in soybean prices in the coming months may be limited, unless there are issues with South America production levels, or unless drought conditions develop in the primary U.S. soybean production areas in 2025.
USDA is now projecting the U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $9.95 per bushel, which is a decline of $.15 per bushel from the February estimate. The estimated 2024-25 market year average soybean price is $2.45 per bushel below the final MYA price a year ago, and would be the lowest average price since the 2020-21 marketing year. The 2024-25 price estimate compares to other recent yearly average soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20, and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19.
Wheat
The March 11 WASDE report estimated the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 at 819 million bushels, which is an increase of 43.7 percent in the past two years. The projected 2024-25 wheat carryout levels compare to 794 million bushels in 2023-24, 570 million bushels in 2022-23, and 674 million bushels in 2021-22. The 2024-25 farm-level average wheat price is now projected at $5.50 per bushel, which is down $.05 per bushel from the February estimated price. The 2024-25 wheat price estimate compares to other recent MYA price levels of $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22, $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21, and $4.58 per bushel in 2019-20. The 2024-25 MYA price for wheat and other small grains is the average farm-level price in the U.S. from June 1, 2024 until May 31, 2025.
Impact on Potential 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Many crop producers in the Midwest were enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for corn and soybeans the 2024 crop year, and are now wondering about the potential for 2024 ARC-CO payments later this year. For producers that enrolled in the “price-only” PLC program in 2024, the final market year average (MYA) price needs to drop below the crop reference price to earn a payment. Payments in the ARC-CO program are based on a final county revenue (2024 county yield x final MYA price), compared to a county benchmark (BM) revenue (county BM yield x 2024 BM price). The marketing year to determine the 2024 MYA prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025, and from June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025 for wheat and other small grains.
Following is an updated summary of potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the March USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2024 PLC payments are not likely; however, 2024 ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 2-3 percent below the 2024 county benchmark yield (8-9 bushel per acre yield decline in many counties).
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $9.95 per bushel. This is $.69 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $1.17 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2024 PLC payments are not likely. ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield that is about 4-5 percent below the county benchmark yield (2-3 bushel per acre yield decline in many counties).
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.50 per bushel. This is at the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments to begin and is $.71 below the 2024 benchmark price. Wheat PLC payments would be initiated with any further decline in the MYA price by June 1, 2025. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield (2-3 bushels per acre yield decline in many counties).
Any 2024 ARC-CO or PLC payments will not be paid until October, 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

April 15 is the deadline to sign-up for the 2025 farm program at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices throughout the United States. Eligible producers are able to choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) program choices. The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based ARC-CO program choice and the ARC-IC program, which is based on farm-level yields. Following are some of the common questions that have been raised regarding 2025 farm program sign-up and some potential answers:
 

• Do I need to sign-up for the 2025 farm program if I do not intend to change my PLC or ARC-CO choice from 2025 ?

Based on FSA guidelines and requirements, farm units will automatically remain with the same farm program option as 2024 if no farm program choice is made for 2025; however, producers would still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program by April 15, 2025, to remain eligible for program benefits. Farm operators need to complete FSA Form #866 to finalize both steps in the farm program enrollment process.
Producers can sign-up for the 2025 farm program at FSA offices now, and still be able to change or adjust their PLC or ARC-CO program choice at any time until April 15.
 

• What choices do crop producers have for 2025 farm program decisions?

Producers can choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) program choices for the 2025 crop production year.  The ARC program choice includes both the more popular county-yield based “ARC-CO” program choice and the “ARC-IC” program, which is based on farm-level yields. Producers can choose PLC for one crop and ARC-CO for other crops on the same farm; however, ARC-IC requires all crops to be in that program choice. Farm operators that have farms in multiple counties can choose PLC or ARC-CO on the same crop in different counties. (For example, they could choose the PLC program for corn in County A and ARC-CO for corn in County B.)
 

• What are the key factors to consider for my choice of ARC-CO or PLC for corn in 2025 ?

The odds of receiving either a PLC or ARC-CO payment for 2025 are improved compared to recent years, due to a higher reference price for potential PLC payments and a higher benchmark (BM) price for potential ARC-CO payments. The 2025 reference price is $4.26 per bushel, which is at the highest level allowed under the current Farm Bill, and compares to $4.01 per bushel in 2024 and $3.70 per bushel in 2023. 2025 PLC payments would begin at a final MYA price below $4.26 per bushel. The PLC program provides price protection and potential PLC payments from a final 2025 MYA price from $4.26 down to $2.20 per bushel. The final corn MYA price from 2014-2019 was $3.70 per bushel or lower, resulting in corn PLC payments; however, the MYA price has been above $4.26 per bushel from 2020 to 2023, and will likely be again in 2024. The PLC payments are based on pre-set farm level FSA yields, which have not changed since 2018 and are typically 20 percent or more lower than the current average farm yields.
 
ARC-CO payments for 2025 will be made if the final county revenue for the year (2025 county yield x final 2025 MYA price) falls below the 2025 benchmark (BM) revenue (county BM yield x BM price).  The 2025 benchmark (BM) price for corn is $5.03 per bushel, which compares to $4.85 per bushel in 2024 and $3.98 per bushel in 2023. At a final 2025 MYA price of $4.50 per bushel, the final 2025 county yield would need to be about 5 percent or more below the BM yield to initiate an ARC-CO payment. For example, if the county BM yield is 200 bu./A., the county yield would need to be 190 bushels per acre or lower for a 2025 ARC-CO payment. If the final 2025 county average yield is the same as the BM yield, the final 2025 MYA price needs to be near $4.30 per bushel in order to initiate an ARC-CO payment, which would be a few cents per bushel above the price to initiate PLC payments.

• What about the 2025 farm program decision for soybeans and wheat ?

Soybeans --- The 2025 MYA price needs to drop below the $9.66 per bushel reference price to initiate 2025 PLC payments. There has never been a PLC payment for soybeans since the PLC program was initiated in 2014. The lowest MYA prices since 2014 were $8.48 per bushel in 2018 and $8.57 per bushel in 2019, during the trade war with China, when the soybean reference price was $8.40 per bushel. The 2025 soybean benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $10.50 per bushel, 2025 soybean ARC-CO payments would begin at 2025 county average yields that are very near county benchmark yields. Given the current economics for soybean production, the 2025 farm program choice probably leans quite strongly toward ARC-CO in most instances.
 
Wheat --- The 2025 PLC reference price for wheat is $5.56 per bushel. The final wheat MYA price was below $5.50 per bushel from 2015-2020, with substantial PLC payments earned in many of those years; however, the MYA price for wheat has been higher than $5.50 per bushel in recent years and no PLC payments have occurred. The 2025 wheat benchmark price is $6.72 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $6.00 per bushel, ARC-CO payments would begin at 2025 county average yields that are only a few bushels below the county benchmark yields. Generally, wheat producers have tended to favor the PLC program over the ARC-CO program due to the favorable PLC payments from 2014 to 2020; however, it may be worthwhile to consider ARC-CO for 2025 due to the higher benchmark price.
 

• Are there situations where ARC-IC might be a favorable farm program choice ?

The program utilizes the same BM price and final MYA price as the ARC-CO program; however, ARC-IC is based on farm-level yields rather that the county BM and final yields. The ARC-IC program must be applied to all covered commodities on a given FSA farm unit, and all farm units in a State that are enrolled in ARC-IC are considered together in one ARC-IC calculation. In addition, ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of crop base acres, compared to payments on 85 percent of base acres for PLC and ARC-CO payments, which tends to limit instances where ARC-IC is a favorable farm program option.
 

• How are the “Market Year Average” (MYA) prices determined ?

All 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on the market year average (MYA) price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026, which means that the current price levels may not impact the final 2025 MYA prices. The MYA price is a monthly average farm-level price from throughout the U.S. that is “weighted” for the volume of bushels sold each month. The 2025 MYA price marketing year for wheat and small grains runs from June 1, 2025, through May 31. 2026.
 

• Where can I find some good PLC/ARC-CO calculators to assist with the farm program decision ?

Following are links to some very good farm program calculators that allow for comparison of potential PLC and ARC-CO payments at various final 2025 MYA prices and various final 2025 county yields: 

• University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/fast-tools/arc-co-plc-model
• Kansas State University --- www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill
• North Dakota State University --- www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
• Iowa State University ---  www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

 

• Are there some other good farm program resources ?

            The official farm program details, county benchmark yields, etc. are available on the FSA farm program
            website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/index
            Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared an information sheets titled: “2025 Farm
            Program Decision Cheat Sheet”, which contains pertinent farm program details and information.
            To request a free copy of these information sheets, send an e-mail to: [email protected].
                     
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

The U.S. Congress passed a “Continuing Resolution” in late December that included $10 billion in farm economic assistance to offset low commodity prices and $21 billion in disaster assistance to provide aid for farmers with losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024. Many Midwest crop producers are counting on receiving this extra income in 2025 to help offset the current tight margins in crop production. As of this writing, USDA has not yet released any information through local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices to provide any details to farmers and ag lenders on what those payments might be. Now that Brooke Rollins has been confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, many ag experts are expecting details on these ad hoc programs to be made available very soon.
In addition, it is very difficult to estimate potential 2024 farm program payments for corn and soybeans that were enrolled the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) program last year, due to changes at the USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). Potential 2025 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on a 12-month average price and final average 2024 crop yield, with any payments occurring in October, 2025. Normally NASS released preliminary average county corn and soybean yields in late February each year, which could then be used to estimate potential ARC-CO payments for the previous crop year. In April of 2024, NASS announced that the agency was discontinuing the release of county yield data beginning with the 2024 yield data that would have been released in 2025. Since there are no other credible sources of county yield data, farmers and ag lenders will now need to wait until late May or early June to get final county yield data from the USDA Risk management Agency (RMA) to estimate potential 2024 ARC-CO payments.
                  Most Midwest farm operators finalize their farm cash flow plans for the upcoming year during the months of January and February, sometimes with the assistance of an ag lender or farm business management advisor. Many times, ag lenders utilize these cash flow projections to determine the viability of farm operating loans for the year. A negative cash flow projection for the year can impact or delay the ability of a farmer to access needed operating credit to purchase seed, fertilizer and other crop inputs for the coming growing season. Due to the low grain prices and very tight projected profit margins for crop production in 2025, many farmers ag lenders are counting on some added income in 2025 from the ad hoc government payments that were approved late in 2024 and potential
2024 farm program payments.
                  Even though we do not have official information of the economic assistance or disaster payments, as well as potential 2024 farm program payments, farmers and ag lenders can rest assured that some of these payments will occur yet in 2025. Following is a summary of the various potential payments:
Farm Economic Assistance Payments
                  One of the most important pieces of the Continuing Resolution legislation that was signed into law late in 2024, which will provide farm economic assistance payments to many crop producers. The economic assistance were established to provide payments to producers of certain crops to offset low prices and poor profit margins for the 2024 crop year. The eligible commodities include barley, corn, cotton, dry peas, grain sorghum, lentils, large chickpeas, oats, peanuts, rice small chickpeas, soybeans, other oilseeds, and wheat. These payments will be based on the planted acres to eligible crops in 2024, as reported to local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. In addition, 50 percent of 2024 prevent plant acres to eligible crops will be eligible for payments.
The estimated commodity payment rates range from near $5 per acre for sesame seed to near $80 per acre for cotton. The estimated payment rates for major crops in the Midwest are $42.51 per acre for corn, $29.50 per acre for soybeans, and $30.80 per acre for wheat. It should be noted that these are estimated payment rates, as no official payment rates have been released by USDA. The legislation required the economic assistance payments to be implemented within 90 days of enactment of the legislation, which would be late March in 2025. 2023 and 2024 Disaster Assistance The Continuing Resolution legislation that was enacted in late 2024 also included $21 billion in disaster assistance for 2023 and 2024 agricultural losses from natural disasters, such as drought, hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, wildfires, excessive rainfall, etc. Farmers and ranchers in many portions of the U.S. may qualify for the disaster payments for one or both years, including the Upper Midwest that had areas impacted by drought in 2023 and by excessive rainfall in 2024. Specific details for the disaster program have not been announced by USDA; however, it is assumed that the payment formula will likely be similar to the Economic Relief Program (ERP) payments from 2020 and 2021. The disaster payments will be implemented by local FSA offices at some point in 2025. Based on the previous formula, disaster payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other major commodities would be calculated separately for the 2023 and 2024 crop years and will likely be based on reported crop insurance yields. The payments would be additional payments over and above the crop insurance indemnity payments that were already paid. The payment formula will likely be based off of a set percentage of the crop insurance revenue guarantee for the year (APH yield x Spring price guarantee) minus the actual crop value (final yield x Fall harvest
price) minus crop insurance indemnity payments that were paid, and then factored by a set percentage.
Potential 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Many crop producers in the Midwest are enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for the 2024 crop year, rather than the “price-only” Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. The reference prices for the PLC program and the benchmark prices for the ARC-CO program for both corn and soybeans increased in 2024. The marketing year to determine the 2024 market year average (MYA) prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025. For producers in the PLC program, the final MYA price needs to drop below the crop reference price to earn a payment, as opposed to the ARC-CO program which determines payments based on a final county revenue (county yield and MYA price). Following is a summary of potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the February USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, 2024 ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 2-3 percent below the 2024 county benchmark yield.
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $10.10 per bushel. This is $.84 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $1.02 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield that is about 4-5 percent below the county benchmark yield.
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.55 per bushel. This is only $.05 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments and is $.41 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 4 percent below the county benchmark yield. Any 2024 ARC-CO or PLC payments will not be paid until October, 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site
at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.     
Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

2025 Farm  Program  Decisions  Are  More  Challenging
April 15 is the deadline to sign-up for the 2025 farm program at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices throughout the United States or online at on the USDA FSA website. Eligible producers are able to choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) farm program choices. The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based ARC-CO program choice and the ARC-IC program, which is based on farm-level yields. In recent years, corn and soybean producers have tended to lean toward ARC-CO over PLC for their farm program choice. Farmers may want to “push the pencil” or run the farm program calculators a bit more this year to determine their best farm program choice for 2025, especially for corn.
 
Following are some of the common questions that have been raised regarding 2025 farm program sign-up , along with some potential answers and considerations:

• Do I need to sign-up for the 2025 farm program if I do not intend to change my PLC or ARC-CO choice from 2025 ?

Based on FSA guidelines and requirements, farm units will automatically remain with the same farm program option as 2024 if no farm program choice is made for 2025. However, producers would still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program by April 15, 2025, to remain eligible for program benefits. Farm operators need to complete the proper FSA forms to finalize both steps in the farm program enrollment process. Producers can enroll in different farm program choices on separate farm units for the same crop, as well as for each crop.
 

• What are my considerations to make the best farm program choice for corn in 2025 ?

The odds of receiving either a corn 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payment for corn are improved due to higher benchmark (BM) and reference prices. The 2025 PLC reference price for corn is $4.26 per bushel, while the 2025 BM price is $5.03 per bushel. PLC payments begin at a final 2025 MYA price below $4.26 per bushel, while potential 2025 ARC-CO payments are dependent on the final 2025 county average yield and the final MYA price. At a 2025 MYA price of $5.03 per bushel, the county yield would need to be 15 percent or more below the BM yield to initiate an ARC-CO payment. For example, if the county BM yield is 200 bushels per acre, the final county yield needs to be 170 bushels per acre or lower to earn a 2025 ARC-CO payment.
 
Another way to look at ARC-CO payments would be if the final 2025 county yield is the same as the benchmark yield. In that situation, ARC-CO payments would be initiated if the final MYA price drops below $4.32 per bushel, compared to PLC payments being initiated at a final 2025 MYA price below $4.26 per bushel. If the final 2025 county average yield is 2 percent above the BM yield, which is only 3-4 bushels per acre in most Midwest counties, both ARC-CO and PLC payments would be initiated below $4.26 per bushel. If county average yields rise above county benchmark yields, the odds of receiving a higher 2025 ARC-CO payment compared to a PLC payment are diminished. The final corn MYA price from 2014-2019 was below $4.26 per bushel and resulted in corn PLC payments from 2015-2019. The recent MYA prices were $4.53/bu. in 2020, $6.00/bu. in 2021, $6.54/bu. in 2022, and $4.55/bu. in 2023. The current 2024 MYA corn price estimate is $4.25/bu., which would be very near the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.26/bu.
 

• Are there other considerations regarding the farm program choice for corn in 2025 ?

The PLC program for 2025 will provide corn price protection with potential PLC payments extending from $4.26/bu. down to $2.20/bu. The maximum PLC payment in most Midwest counties is probably $250 to $290 per base acre, while the maximum ARC-CO payment is probably $85 to $95 per base acre. For farm operators that are very concerned about potential significant corn price declines later in 2025 into 2026, the PLC farm program choice for 2025 provides a nice “safety net”. For producers that are less concerned about future corn prices, but are more concerned with the potential for drought in 2025, ARC-CO may be a better farm program choice for corn in 2025.

• What are factors that affect the 2025 farm program decision for soybeans ?

The 2025 soybean benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel and the 2025 reference price is $9.66 per bushel. The MYA price needs to drop below $9.66 per bushel to initiate 2025 PLC payments. The only time since 2014 that the MYA price has dropped below $9.66 per bushel was in the 2018 and 2019 marketing years, which were during the “trade war” with China. At a 2025 MYA price of $9.66 per bushel and a 2025 county yield the same as the benchmark yield, there would be a significant soybean ARC-CO payment for 2025. USDA has not made a PLC payment for soybeans in any year since the PLC program was initiated in 2014.  
 
At a final MYA price of $12.17/bu., the final county yield for 2025 will need to be 15 percent or more below the 2025 county benchmark yield to initiate a 2025 soybean ARC-CO payment, which equates to a 2025 county average yield decline of 7-10 bushels or more per acre in most Midwest counties. Given the current soybean price projections, the 2025 farm program choice probably leans toward ARC-CO in most instances; however, the odds of a 2025 ARC-CO payment will be dependent on the soybean price trends following the 2025 harvest season, as well as the final 2025 county average yield.
 

• What about the 2025 farm program choice for wheat ?

The PLC reference price increased by $.06 per bushel to $5.56 per bushel for 2025, while the ARC-CO benchmark price for wheat increased to $6.72 per bushel for 2025. The final wheat MYA price was below $5.56 per bushel from 2015-2020, with substantial PLC payments earned in many of those years; however, the recent MYA wheat prices have been $7.63/bu. in 2021, $8.83/bu. in 2022, and $6.96/bu. in 2023. The current projected 2024 MYA price is $5.55/bu. The calculations for comparing PLC and ARC-CO as a 2025 farm program choice for wheat in 2025 are very similar to the calculations for corn. Generally, wheat producers have tended to favor the PLC program over the ARC-CO program in recent years, due to the favorable PLC payments from 2014 to 2020; however, the higher ARC-CO benchmark price for 2025, along with the price and yield uncertainty, makes the 2025 farm program decision more challenging.
 

• Are there situations where ARC-IC might be a favorable farm program choice ?

The program utilizes the same BM price and final MYA price as the ARC-CO program; however, ARC-IC is based on farm-level yields rather that the county-based yields. The ARC-IC program must be applied to all covered commodities on a given FSA farm unit, and all farm units in a State that are enrolled in ARC-IC are considered together in one ARC-IC calculation. In addition, ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of crop base acres, compared to payments on 85 percent of base acres for PLC and ARC-CO payments, which tends to limit instances where ARC-IC is a favorable farm program option.
 

• How is the “Market Year Average” (MYA) price determined ?

All 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on the market year average (MYA) price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026, which means that the current price levels may not impact the final 2025 MYA prices. The MYA price is a monthly average farm-level price from throughout the U.S. that is then “weighted” for the volume of bushels sold in each month. The 2025 MYA price marketing year for wheat and small grains runs from June 1, 2025, through May 31. 2026.
 

• What are some good PLC/ARC-CO resources to assist with farm program decisions ?

For official information on PLC and ARC-CO programs, and other farm program details, go to the FSA farm program website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. Kent Thiesse, farm management analyst, has prepared an information sheet titled “2025 Farm Program Decision “Cheat Sheet”, which is available by sending an email to: [email protected]. Following are links to some very good farm program calculators to estimate potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments at various final MYA prices and final county yields: 

• University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/
• North Dakota State University --- https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
• Kansas State University --- http://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill
• Iowa State University ---  https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

During the next few weeks, farm operators will be finalizing their crop insurance decisions for the 2025 crop year. March 15th is the deadline to purchase crop insurance for the 2025 crop year. The 2025 Spring price for corn should be similar to last year, while the soybean Spring price is likely to be reduced from the base price level in 2024. There still should be some favorable crop insurance guarantees again this year at reasonable premium costs. USDA has increased the premium subsidies for ECO and SCO insurance products, which may enhance crop insurance choices for farmers in 2025.

Producers have several crop insurance policy options to choose from, including yield-only (YP) and revenue protection (RP and RPE) policies, SCO and ECO policies, and other private insurance options. In recent years, most farm operators have chosen revenue protection (RP) insurance options, which provide a guaranteed gross revenue per acre (yield x price). This guarantee is based on yield history (APH) on a farm unit times the Spring (base) price, which is the average of the CBOT prices during the month of February for December corn futures and November soybean futures.

As of January 23, the 2025 crop insurance Spring price estimates in the Upper Midwest for YP, RP, and RPE policies were estimated near $4.60 per bushel for corn and $10.40 per bushel for soybeans. The 2025 Spring prices will be finalized on March 1. The current 2025 base price estimates compare to recent base prices $4.66/bu. for corn and $11.55/bu. for soybeans in 2024, $5.91/bu. for corn and $13.76/bu. for soybeans in 2023, and $5.90/bu. for corn and $14.33/bu. for soybeans in 2022. The final 2025 crop revenue will be the actual fam yield times the crop insurance harvest price, which is the average CBOT prices during October for December corn futures and November soybean futures.
Another insurance option that is a lower premium than a typical RP policy with harvest price protection is a RPE (harvest price exclusion) policy, which functions similarly to a standard RP policy except that the guarantees on RPE policies are fixed at the base price level and are not affected by harvest prices that exceed the base price. The revenue guarantee for standard RP policies is increased for final insurance calculations, if average CBOT prices during the month of October are higher than the February CBOT prices, which is what occurred for corn and soybeans in both 2020 and 2021, as well as for corn in 2022. The RPE option is not recommended to protect against losses due to large crop disasters, such as a drought or other disaster that affects a large portion of the Midwest, or other situations that could lead to price increases during the year.

An analysis for the past eighteen years (2007-2024) shows that the final crop insurance harvest price for corn has been lower than the Spring base price in twelve of the eighteen years, including a decrease of ($.50) per bushel in 2024. The corn harvest price was also lower from 2013-2019. That trend was reversed from 2020-2022, when the harvest price for corn rose above the Spring price by +$.11 per bushel in 2020 +$.79 in 2021, and by +$.96 in 2022. The only other years that saw an increase in the harvest price were 2010, 2011 and 2012.

An analysis of the past eighteen years for soybeans, shows that the harvest price has increased in seven years (2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2021) and decreased in ten years (2008, 2011, 2014-2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024), while staying the same in 2013. The range has been from an increase of +$2.84 per bushel in 2012 to a decline of ($3.00) per bushel in 2008. In 2024, the harvest price was $10.03/bu., which was a decrease of ($1.52) per bushel from the Spring price of $11.55/bu. The range of price variation from Spring prices to harvest prices for corn and soybeans, both up and down, further solidifies the importance of having a solid crop insurance policy in place for the 2025 crop year.

SCO and ECO Insurance Coverage Improved for 2025
The Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) coverage is only available to producers that choose the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) farm program option for the 2025 crop year. The farm program enrollment deadline is April 15 in 2025; however, the crop insurance enrollment deadline is March 15, 2025. This means that farm operators will need to consider both choices by March 15 if they want to utilize SCO insurance coverage. SCO allows producers to purchase additional county-level crop insurance coverage up to a maximum of 86 percent coverage. For example, a producer that purchases an 80% RP policy could purchase an additional 6% SCO coverage.

The Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) provides area-based insurance coverage from 86 percent up to 95 percent coverage, with producers having a choice between 90 or 95 percent ECO coverage. Unlike SCO coverage, the purchase of ECO coverage is available with selection of either the PLC or ARC-CO farm program choice for 2025. Producers can utilize both ECO and SCO together, in addition to their underlying RP, RPE, or YP insurance policy. SCO and ECO are county revenue-based insurance products that utilize the same crop insurance base prices and harvest prices as RP insurance policies; however, the biggest difference is that SCO and ECO utilize county level average yields, rather than the farm-level APH yields. As a result, the SCO and ECO insurance policies may achieve different results than the underlying RP policy.

The federal government has increased the premium subsidies for both SCO and ECO coverage for 2025, which should make premiums more reasonable for crop insurance coverage that include these products. It is estimated that 2025 SCO premiums will decline by 3-5 percent compared to a year ago, while ECO premiums are likely to decline by 30-35 percent in 2025 compared to a year earlier. Many crop insurance companies have combined SCO and ECO coverage with other private insurance buy-up policies to offer some very attractive risk management insurance packages for the 2025 crop year. Interested producers should check with their crop insurance agent for details on 2025 SCO and ECO insurance coverage and premiums, along with private insurance buy-up options, to optimize their crop insurance coverage for 2025.
 
“Enterprise Units” and “Optional Units”
“Enterprise units” combine all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit, while “optional units” allow producers to insure crops separately in each individual township section. “Enterprise units” usually have considerably lower premium costs (approx. $8.00-$10.00 per acre) compared to “optional units”, for comparable RP and RPE policies. Producers should be aware that “enterprise units” are based on larger coverage areas, and do not necessarily cover losses from isolated storms or crop damage that affect individual farm units, such as damage from hail, wind, or heavy rains that have occurred in recent years. It is important to understand the difference in insurance coverage and to analyze the yield risk on each individual farm unit, when determining if paying the extra premium for insurance coverage with “optional units” makes sense.

“Bottom-Line” on Crop Insurance Decisions
Producers have the option to purchase RP and RPE insurance coverage levels from 50% to 85%, and losses are paid if the final crop revenue falls below the revenue guarantee. Given the tighter margins for both corn and soybeans, there may be a tendency to reduce the level of crop insurance coverage for 2025. However, producers need to closely analyze their risk exposure for the 2025 crop year and adjust their crop insurance coverage accordingly. At the current estimated Spring prices, many producers should still be able to provide an adequate level of risk protection for corn and soybean production in 2025. Crop insurance remains one of the best risk management tools that is available for farm operators to protect their investment in crop production.
A reputable crop insurance agent is the best source of information to find out more details about the various crop insurance products that are offered, to get premium quotes, and to help finalize 2025 crop insurance decisions. Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared an information sheet titled: “2025 Crop Insurance Decisions”. To receive a copy of the information sheet please forward an e-mail to: [email protected]
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]  

Eligible farm operators have from January 21 until April 15 to enroll in the 2025 farm program, either online or at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. Late in 2024, the 2018 Farm Bill was extended for one year, extending the expiration of the current Farm Bill until September 30, 2025. This also meant that the provisions and parameters that existed for traditional farm programs will continue for the 2025 crop year for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops. The good news for farm operators is that the reference prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat will all increase for the 2025 crop year. The reference prices are used to calculate potential PLC payments for a given commodity. The benchmark prices that are used in determining potential “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also increased for the 2025 farm program.

Eligible cops for farm program benefits include corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, grain sorghum, long grain rice, medium/short grain rice, temperate japonica rice, seed cotton, dry peas, lentils, large and small chickpeas, peanuts, sunflower seed, canola, flaxseed, mustard seed, rapeseed, safflower, crambe, and sesame seed. Producers can choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) program choices for the 2025 crop production year.  The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based “ARC-CO” program choice, which is the most popular, and the “ARC-IC” program, which is based on farm-level yields. If no choice is made, the 2024 farm program choice will remain in place for 2025; however, producers still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program in order to be eligible for farm program benefits.

Crop base acres for 2025 will remain at the same levels as 2024 for all crops on most farms, unless there are adjustments in base acres for crop acres that were added via land purchases or rental agreements or acres that are no longer eligible for farm program payments. The farm program yields on individual farm units, which were last updated in 2020, will be continued to calculate potential PLC payments in 2025. The ARC-CO “benchmark yields” for 2025 are based on the “Olympic-average” Risk Management Agency (RMA) county average yields for the 2019 to 2023 crop years. The national “market year average” (MYA) price for each program crop for the years 2019-2023 was averaged to calculate the 2025 “benchmark price” for the ARC-CO and ARC-IC programs.
 
The calculation formulas, etc. for the 2025 PLC, ARC-CO and ARC-IC programs will remain the same as in previous years. PLC payments for 2025 will be made if the final MYA price for 2025 falls below the reference price for a given crop. ARC-CO payments for 2025 will be made if the final county revenue for the year (county yield x final 2025 MYA price) falls below the 2025 benchmark revenue (county benchmark yield x benchmark price) for a given crop. The calculations for the ARC-IC program are the same as for the ARC-CO program, except ARC-IC uses farm-level yield data and considers all crops on a farm unit together for calculation of potential payments in a given year. PLC and ARC-CO payments will be paid on 85 percent of crop base acres, while ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of base acres.

The 2015 Farm Bill established “statutory reference prices” for all crops that were used to calculate PLC payments. The 2018 Farm Bill set the fixed statutory prices as minimum reference prices and added the possibility for “effective reference prices”. This allows the reference price to increase by as much as 15 percent above the fixed reference price (fixed price x 115%). The final calculated reference price for a given year is the higher of the fixed statutory price or the 5-year “Olympic average” price for a commodity times 85 percent (.85). The “Olympic average” price is calculated by taking the market year average (MYA) price for the five previous years (not including the current marketing year), dropping the high and the low price, and then averaging the other prices for the other three years. For the 2025 crop year, the “Olympic average” price is based on the MYA prices for the years 2019 to 2023, which is then multiplied by 85% (.85) to determine the final reference price. The 2025 reference prices for both corn and soybeans will be at the maximum level (115% of the statutory price).
The final effective reference prices (ERP) for the 2019 to 2023 crop years were at the minimum statutory levels of $3.70 per bushel for corn, $8.40 per bushel for soybeans, and $5.50 per bushel for wheat, meaning that calculation for higher reference prices was not triggered for any of those three crops. MYA prices have been high enough in recent years to result in higher PLC reference prices for corn and soybeans in both 2024 and 2025, as well as for wheat in 2025. The 2025 reference prices are $4.26 for corn, $9.66 for soybeans, and $5.56 for wheat. The higher reference prices potentially increases the likelihood of PLC payments for the 2025 crop year, especially for corn and wheat, if average market prices decline during the 2024-25 marketing year. PLC payments are not as likely for soybeans at current market price trends. The higher PLC reference price for corn will likely make 2025 farm program decisions for corn a bit more challenging than in recent years.

Key points to remember about the 2025 Farm Program decision:
•    The 2025 reference prices for the PLC program are:      
Corn = $4.26 per bushel  ($4.01/Bu. in 2024 & $3.70/Bu. in 2023)
Soybeans = $9.66 per bushel  ($9.26/Bu. in 2024 & $8.40/Bu.in 2023)  
            Wheat = $5.56 per bushel  ($5.50/Bu. in 2024 & 2023)
 
•    The ARC-CO and ARC-IC benchmark prices for 2025 are:
Corn = $5.03 per bushel  ($4.85/Bu. in 2024 & $3.98/Bu. in 2023)
Soybeans = $12.17 per bushel  ($11.12/Bu. in 2024 & $9.57/Bu. in 2023)
Wheat = $6.72 per bushel  ($6.21/Bu. in 2024 & $5.50/Bu. in 2023)

•    Final 2025 MYA prices for corn and soybeans will be calculated from 9-01-25 to 8-31-26. As a result, the current trends in crop prices may not necessarily impact final 2025 farm program payments. Final 2025 MYA prices for wheat and other small grains will be calculated from 6-01-25 to 5-31-26.
 
•    Calculation formulas for the PLC and ARC-CO programs are as follows:
    PLC payment per crop base acre = (2025 Ref. Price – 2025 MYA price) x program yield x .85
(If the final 2025 MYA price is higher than the reference price, there is no PLC payment.)
    ARC-CO Benchmark (BM) revenue guarantee per acre = County BM yield x BM price x .86
Final 2025 ARC-CO revenue per acre = Final 2025 County yield x Final 2025 MYA price
ARC-CO payment per base acre = (BM Revenue Guarantee – 2025 Final Revenue) x .85
(If the final revenue is higher than the BM revenue, there is no 2025 ARC-CO payment.)

•    For official information on PLC and ARC-CO programs, and other farm program details, go to the FSA farm program website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc
For a listing of 2025 county benchmark yields and revenues for all crops, refer to:
            https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/arcplc-program-data/index

•    Following are some good Farm Program web-based decision tools to assist producers:
    University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/
    North Dakota State University --- https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
    Kansas State University --- http://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill

•    Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst with the Green Solutions Group, has prepared an information sheet listing key points regarding the 2025 farm decision for corn, soybeans and wheat for the 2025 crop year. To receive a copy of the “2025 Farm Program Decision “Cheat Sheet”, send an email to: [email protected]
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The January USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is often known as being a “market mover”, and the WASDE report released on January 10th did not disappoint. USDA made significant downward adjustments to final 2024 corn and soybean production numbers, based on lowering the final 2024 national average corn yield by 2.1 percent and the average soybean yield by 1.9 percent. The reductions in the corn and soybean supply, together with only minor adjustments in corn and soybean usage, resulted in a significant decline in projected ending stocks for both crops compared to a month earlier. The initial market reaction following this report was an increase in both corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
 
CORN
The updated National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report for 2024 was also released on January 10th. The report estimated the final 2024 U.S. average corn yield at 179.3 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 3.8 bushels per acre from November’s estimate. The 2024 corn yield estimate is still a new record average U.S. corn yield, surpassing the previous record U.S. yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and compares to 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022. The corn yield estimates in the latest NASS report were lowered by 4.9 percent or more in Minnesota, Indiana, and Kansas, compared to the last yield estimate in November. Minnesota is estimated to have a final 2024 average corn yield of 174 bushels, while Iowa is projected to have a final corn yield of 211 bushels per acre. Other estimated average corn yields for 2024 included Illinois at 217 bushels per acre, Indiana at 198 bushels per acre, Ohio at 177 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 188 bushels per acre, Wisconsin at 174 bushels, South Dakota at 164 bushels per acre, and North Dakota at 149 bushels per acre.
 
The latest WASDE report listed the total 2024 U.S. corn production at 14.87 billion bushels, which was lowered from 15.14 billion bushels last month. The 2024 U.S. corn production was below the record level of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023; however, it is still about 1.2 billion bushels above the 2022 corn production level. The latest USDA report put the total demand for corn usage in 2024-25 at just over 15.1 billion bushels, which is a slight increase from 2023-24 corn usage figures. USDA is projecting corn export levels to increase by 158 million bushels in 2024-25, along with slight increases of 21 million bushels in corn used for feed and 22 million bushels in corn processed into ethanol. 
 
USDA is estimating 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which was a decrease of 198 million bushels from the December WASDE report. The estimated 2024-25 ending stocks are 12.6 percent lower than the final ending stocks of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24; however, the current projected carryover exceeds the 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is now estimated at 10.2 percent for 2023-24, which compares to ratios of 11.9 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23, and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. At this point, the projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the relatively high stocks-to-use ratios of 13.7 percent in 2019-20 and 14.6 percent in 2018-19. The anticipated reduction in the available corn supply could offer some potential for short-term rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months.
 
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.25 per bushel, which is an increase of $.15 per bushel from the December estimate. The market year average (MYA) corn and soybean price estimates for 2024-25 are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2024 crop from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent estimated prices for either the 2024 or 2025 calendar year. The projected 2024-25 corn price of $4.25 per bushel compares to a final MYA price of $4.55 for 2023-24 and is a significant decline from the final MYA prices of $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23 and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current projected MYA price is also slightly lower than $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21; however, it far exceeds the national average corn prices of $3.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19, and $3.36 per bushel in 2017-18.
SOYBEANS
The latest NASS report projects the final 2024 U.S. average soybean yield at 50.7 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of one bushel per acre from the November yield estimate. The 2024 yield compares to recent final U.S. average yields of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022 and 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021. Total U.S. soybean production for 2024 is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels, which is an increase of 204 million bushels from the final 2023 production level. The recent WASDE report estimates total soybean demand at 4.349 billion bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year, which is an increase of 244 million bushels from 2023-24 soybean demand levels. Soybean crush levels are expected to increase by 123 million bushels in the current marketing year, while soybean exports are expected to be 130 million bushels higher than 2023-24 levels. Soybean exports in 2024-25 would still be 155 million bushels below 2022-23 export levels. 
 
The latest WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year at 380 million bushels, which was a decrease of 90 million bushels from the December report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are an increase of 38 million bushels from the 2023-24 carryout level of 342 million bushels. The current projected ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21 Current levels are well below ending stocks of  525 million bushels in 2019-20, 913 million bushels in 2018-19, and 438 million bushels in 2017-18.   
 
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is similar to the final ratio of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, but is higher than the ratios of 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22 and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio remains is still considerably lower than soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The reduction in the 2024-25 estimated soybean supply may offer some opportunities for some short-term rallies in cash soybean prices in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop in South America or with the 2025 U.S. soybean crop.
 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level (MYA) soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel, which is unchanged from the December estimate. The estimated 2024-25 average soybean price would be a significant decline from the final soybean MYA prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The 2024-25 MYA price estimate would be comparable to the soybean MYA price of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21; however it would still be considerably higher than the MYA prices of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20 and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19.  
 
Market Reaction to the WASDE Report
Both corn and soybean market prices showed a very positive market response following the release of the latest WASDE report on January 10th. Nearby cash corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 14.5 cents per bushel following the report, closing at a price of $4.70 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 corn crop since late June of 2024. By comparison, nearby corn futures were at $4.59 per bushel in 2024 and $6.70 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The December CBOT corn futures price, which is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 corn crop were up 3.25 cents per bushel at the market closing on January 10th, closing at $4.50 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT corn futures prices were at $4.91 per bushel in 2024 and $6.07 per bushel in 2023 following the WASDE report in January.
 
CBOT cash soybean futures increased by 26.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report, closing at a price of $10.25 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 soybean crop since late October of 2024. The current nearby soybean futures price is well below the CBOT prices $12.40 per bushel in 2024 and $14.87 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The November CBOT soybean futures price that is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 soybean crop was up 17.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report and closed at $10.31 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT soybean futures prices were at $12.04 per bushel in 2024 and $13.97 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report.

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

As we head into 2025, many farm operations are coming off a relatively poor profit year in 2024; with some farmers having very small profit levels last year, while others had extremely poor results in 2024. In all cases, all farm operators continue to face very tight profit margins for crop production in 2025, as compared to a few years ago. During these challenging farm financial times, it is good to plan ahead before meeting with an ag lender for renewal of a farm operating line of credit or for an annual re-view of the farm financial portfolio.
Following are some tips for farm operators to be more proactive, as they are preparing for an annual meeting with their ag lender ……
• Prepare an up-to-date 2024 year-end farm balance sheet (as of 12-31-24 or 1-01-25).
Preparation of an accurate and up-to-date year-end balance sheet is critical to the loan renewal process for any farm operation. Updating the previous year’s balance sheet with current year-end numbers can help expedite the process. If the farm operation is a sole proprietorship, most ag lenders will also want personal asset and liability data included. If it is a partnership or family corporation, most ag lenders will also require personal balance sheets from all partners.
A good year-end balance sheet will include:
• List of accounts receivable as of 12-31-24, which includes whom the money is due from, the dollar amount, and the date it will be received. This includes deferred payments for grain sold in 2024.
• List of accounts payable as of 12-31-24, listing who the money is owed to, the dollar amount, and when payment will be due. Be sure to include any items listed as cur-rent assets where payment is still due, as well as final 2024 land rental payments that were still due as 12-31-24.
• List of 2024 prepaid expenses for both crops and livestock as of 12-31-24, which details the input, amount of the input, and the amount that was prepaid. This is for items where payment has occurred.
• Grain and livestock inventory list as of 12-31-24. The grain inventory should include total bushels of each crop, bushels that are forward priced (date and price for each sale), and any sales plans for the remaining bushels. Livestock inventory should include the number, weight, and any sales information on market or feeder livestock. An updated list and estimated value of breeding livestock should be included as an intermediate asset rather than a current asset.
• CCC loans on 2024 grain that were taken prior to 1-01-25, listing the bushel amount, CCC loan rate, CCC interest rate, CCC loan maturity date, and sales plans for the CCC grain.
• Review the list of farm machinery and equipment, buildings and facilities, and other capital assets, removing any assets that have been sold or removed, and adding any assets that were purchased or acquired during 2024. Farm machinery values should be adjusted to represent current market values.
• Add any land or other long-term assets that were added in 2024 and adjust asset values as necessary (may want to review this with an ag lender).
• List of all other loans and creditors as of 12-31-24, listing the principal balance, interest rate, payment amount, and payment dates. Be sure to include short-term credi-tors for crop and livestock inputs, loans with family members, and CCC loans through FSA offices.
• Prepare a 2024 year-end income and expense statement as of 12-31-24.
The year-end income statement from the previous year should be based on actual sales of grain and livestock during 2024, which will likely include some 2023 inventory that existed at the beginning of the year, as well as any 2024 grain or livestock that was sold during the year. The 2024 expenses would include any accounts payable from the beginning of the year balance sheet that were paid in 2024 and any 2025 prepaid expenses that were paid in 2024, in addition to the other 2024 crop and livestock ex-penses. A preliminary 2024 federal tax return is a good resource to prepare an income statement.
• Prepare a budget-to-actual summary for the previous year (as of 12-31-24).
Once the 2024 income and expense statement has been finalized, and accrual adjustments are made based on the year-end balance sheet, it always good to review the actual year-end financial analysis compared to the budgeted cash flow analysis that was prepared at the beginning of the year. Pay attention to the big differences that exist in crop and livestock income and the various expense items, as well as determine explanations for those differences. Analyze for any potential adjustments that are need-ed for 2025.
• Prepare a preliminary 2025 budget and cash flow analysis.
Preparing an accurate and complete budget and cash flow analysis for 2025 is a very important part of the loan renewal process and can assist with grain marketing deci-sions for the 2025 crop year. A high-quality cash flow analysis will likely include:
•Planned crop and livestock production for the year, including acres of various crops, anticipated production levels, and any current or planned sales of the 2025 produc-tion.
• A grain and livestock marketing plan that includes a list of the amount sold, the contracted price, and the date to be delivered, as well as plans for remaining unpriced grain and livestock inventories.
• A list of planned crop and livestock inputs for 2025, the contracted or planned price of the inputs, and when the expense will be incurred.
• A detailed list of rented farmland for 2025, which includes the name of the farm owner, acres rented, amount of rent (including flexible lease details), and dates when rent payments are due.
• Include income received for accounts receivable on the year-end balance sheet and account for the expenses of any accounts payable at the beginning of the year.
• Include any other farm income (custom work, etc.) and non-farm expenses (family living, personal loans, etc.) that must be accounted for in the cash flow analysis for the farm.
• Provide details of planned 2025 crop insurance coverage, such as updated APH yields, percentage coverage, enterprise versus optional units, and the addition of hail or wind insurance. (Your ag lender may be a good resource for these decisions.)
• Provide a copy of FSA farm program information listing the crop base acres and FSA program yield for each farm unit. Discuss the 2025 farm program choice with your ag lender.
• Include any planned changes or adjustments in the farming operation for 2025 in the cash flow analysis, including farm machinery purchases or sales, adding or selling land or other assets, and any other changes to the farm business, as well as any changes in personal assets or liabilities.
• Once USDA announces details, potential payments for farm economic assistance and disaster assistance could be included. Possible 2024 ARC-CO payment estimates for corn and soybeans, based on final 2024 county yields and 2024 MYA price estimates, could also be included.
It is best to include all partners and family members that are part of the farm operation in the renewal process with an ag lender, so that all key players are “on the same page” with financial decisions affecting the farm business. It is very important to be trustworthy and honest in preparing and sharing financial information with an ag lender to help assure confidence in the accuracy of the financial data. View an ag lender as an informal partner in a farm business, as a good ag lender can be a valuable resource in making management decisions.
Farm operators should expect their ag lenders to be well prepared, trustworthy and honest in financial dealings. It is important to remember that most local ag lenders also face a lot of pressure in the process of renewing farm operating loans and that they need to do their “due diligence” to complete the necessary requirements in the loan renewal process. The documentation that is prepared will likely be reviewed by senior management at a financial institution, as well as be subject to review and au-dits by Federal and State bank examiners. Most ag lenders are part of the local community and want to see farmers have financial success, which is in the best interest of both the farm business and the ag lending institution.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The highly contentious 2024 Election is now history, and we are now moving rapidly forward with a new Administration and several new members of Congress. There will be new leadership in the U.S. Senate and some changes in lead roles on the Congressional Agriculture Committees. There are many key issues and possible policy changes that potentially could affect the agriculture industry, which will likely be addressed by Congress and the White House in the next couple years. However, there are also some concerns and questions with some of these policy initiatives as we move forward.
It appears that Brooke Rollins of Texas will be appointed to lead USDA and serve as the next Secretary of Agriculture. Other nominees by President-Elect Trump that could play a key role in ag and energy policy development include Lee Zeldin, former New York Congressman, as Director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as Secretary of the Interior, Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy, Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative, and Tom Hor-man as the Border Czar. These nominees for leadership roles in the new administration must now be approved by the U.S. Senate after January 1, 2025. The leadership of Federal Departments can have a big impact on how various agriculture, energy, and environmental policies are implemented and administered.
The leadership of key Congressional Committees, such as the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, will have a major influence on future agriculture and energy issues. Republican Senator John Thune from South Dakota, who has strong ties to agriculture and energy policy, will now be the leader of the U.S. Senate. Arkansas Sena-tor John Bozeman will be Chair of the U.S. Senate Ag Committee and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar will be in the Democratic leadership role on the Ag Committee. Republican Congressman G.T. Thompson will continue the Chair the U.S. House Agriculture committee and Minnesota Second District Congresswoman Angie Craig will be the new lead Democrat on the Ag Committee. Both Senator Klobuchar and Congresswoman Craig are well respected by the Minnesota agriculture industry and have a history of working across party lines on ag policy issues. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith (D) will continue to serve on the Senate Ag Committee and First District Congressman Brad Finstad (R) will continue to serve on the House Ag Committee.
Following is some perspective on some of the key agriculture and energy policy issues that are likely to be under consideration during the next session of Congress, or by executive action from the Administration:
• FINALIZING A NEW FARM BILL --- The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023 and was extended for one year; however, it has now expired again and will likely be extended for an additional year until September 30, 2025. The U.S. House Agriculture Committee passed its version of a new Farm Bill in the Spring of 2024; however, the bill has not been voted on by the entire U.S. House of Representatives. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), current Chair of the Senate Agriculture Commit-tee, released a version of a new Farm Bill after the 2024 Election; however, it was not acted on by Congress.
Some members of Congress and many agriculture leaders have proposed increasing crop reference prices, enhancing crop insurance options, and improving risk pro-tection opportunities for livestock producers and farmers that raise specialty crops. There has also considerable discussion regarding the importance of conservation programs and how those programs can enhance ongoing carbon sequestration efforts. Most members of both political parties agree that the nutrition title of the Farm Bill, which accounts for over 80 percent of the annual Farm Bill spending, should not be separated from the Farm Bill; however, there are some differences on specific provisions in the nutrition title. There are also many other important programs and provisions that are part of the existing titles in the Farm Bill, including rural develop-ment, ag research and extension, trade promotion, livestock disease mitigation, and beginning farmer loans.
• DOWNTURN IN THE FARM ECONOMY --- Profit margins in crop production have worsened considerably in the past two years, which could put some farm opera-tions at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates increased substantially in 2023 and 2024, while crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. For farm operators that experienced crop losses in 2024 due to weather issues, the financial situation is likely even more severe. The struggling profit margins for crop producers are somewhat linked to discussions on the new Farm Bill and the need for improved risk management tools for farmers. Swine producers have also had very low or negative profit margins for much of the time in the past two years. Some dairy and poultry producers have been dealing with the financial impacts of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in certain areas of the U.S.
• TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY --- Tariffs and trade policy have received a lot of discussion since the recent Presidential Election. President-Elect Trump has threatened to impose large additional tariffs on a variety of goods being imported into the United States from China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries. If the U.S. implements additional tariffs, there is high likelihood that the other countries could impose retaliatory tariffs on products and goods that are exported by the U.S. into these countries. China, Canada and Mexico are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports, including corn, soybeans, ethanol, pork, beef, and dairy products. The trade war with China during the first Trump administration had a significant impact on the commodity prices of soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products. Farm groups are also hopeful that the new administration and leadership in Congress can negotiate new bi-lateral trade agreements with other countries, in addition to normalizing relations with China, Canada and Mexico.
• RENEWABLE FUELS AND ENERGY --- The next Administration and Congress will need to decide what direction the U.S. takes toward further development of renewa-ble fuels industry through the renewable fuels standards (RFS), year-round E-15 blends, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other incentives for renewable fuels, such as tax credits, etc. Ethanol and renewable diesel production have a major economic impact for farm operators, as well as for the overall rural economy in the Upper Mid-west. Many ag leaders point to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers and the processing plants, some of the current feedstock for SAF production, such as used cooking oil, is being imported from other countries.
• IMMIGRATION REFORM --- We are likely to see some significant changes in U.S. immigration policy by the new Administration and Congress; however, many indus-tries, including the agriculture industry, could be significantly impacted by some of the potential immigration reform policies. Both production agriculture and the ag processing industry rely heavily on an immigrant workforce, so major changes in getting needed workers into portions of the U.S. could greatly affect the rural economy in some locations. What is really needed is for Congress and the Administration to develop an immigration policy that secures the U.S. border, but also allows needed immigration to satisfy labor shortages in some segments of the economy.
The new Farm Bill, the struggling rural economy, ag trade agreements, and the future of renewable energy are only a few of the issues affecting farm families and rural businesses. There are many other issues and programs that affect rural families, businesses, and communities in a variety of ways. These include family health care ac-cess and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of rural areas, infrastructure needs, assistance for beginning farmers, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The next few months should be interesting as the policy initiatives of the new Administration and Congress are unveiled.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The highly contentious 2024 Election is now history, and we are now moving rapidly forward with a new Administration and several new members of Congress. There will be new leadership in the U.S. Senate and some changes in lead roles on the Congressional Agriculture Committees. There are many key issues and possible policy changes that potentially could affect the agriculture industry, which will likely be addressed by Congress and the White House in the next couple years. However, there are also some concerns and questions with some of these policy initiatives as we move forward.
It appears that Brooke Rollins of Texas will be appointed to lead USDA and serve as the next Secretary of Agriculture. Other nominees by President-Elect Trump that could play a key role in ag and energy policy development include Lee Zeldin, former New York Congressman, as Director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as Secretary of the Interior, Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy, Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative, and Tom Horman as the Border Czar. These nominees for leadership roles in the new administration must now be approved by the U.S. Senate after January 1, 2025. The leadership of Federal Departments can have a big impact on how various agriculture, energy, and environmental policies are implemented and administered.
The leadership of key Congressional Committees, such as the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, will have a major influence on future agriculture and energy issues. Republican Senator John Thune from South Dakota, who has strong ties to agriculture and energy policy, will now be the leader of the U.S. Senate. Arkansas Senator John Bozeman will be Chair of the U.S. Senate Ag Committee and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar will be in the Democratic leadership role on the Ag Committee. Republican Congressman G.T. Thompson will continue the Chair the U.S. House Agriculture committee and Minnesota Second District Congresswoman Angie Craig will be the new lead Democrat on the Ag Committee. Both Senator Klobuchar and Congresswoman Craig are well respected by the Minnesota agriculture industry and have a history of working across party lines on ag policy issues. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith (D) will continue to serve on the Senate Ag Committee and First District Congressman Brad Finstad (R) will continue to serve on the House Ag Committee.
Following is some perspective on some of the key agriculture and energy policy issues that are likely to be under consideration during the next session of Congress, or by executive action from the Administration:
• FINALIZING A NEW FARM BILL - The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023 and was extended for one year; however, it has now expired again and will likely be extended for an additional year until September 30, 2025. The U.S. House Agriculture Committee passed its version of a new Farm Bill in the Spring of 2024; however, the bill has not been voted on by the entire U.S. House of Representatives. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), current Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, released a version of a new Farm Bill after the 2024 Election; however, it was not acted on by Congress.
Some members of Congress and many agriculture leaders have proposed increasing crop reference prices, enhancing crop insurance options, and improving risk protection opportunities for livestock producers and farmers that raise specialty crops. There has also considerable discussion regarding the importance of conservation programs and how those programs can enhance ongoing carbon sequestration efforts. Most members of both political parties agree that the nutrition title of the Farm Bill, which accounts for over 80 percent of the annual Farm Bill spending, should not be separated from the Farm Bill; however, there are some differences on specific provisions in the nutrition title. There are also many other important programs and provisions that are part of the existing titles in the Farm Bill, including rural development, ag research and extension, trade promotion, livestock disease mitigation, and beginning farmer loans.
• DOWNTURN IN THE FARM ECONOMY - Profit margins in crop production have worsened considerably in the past two years, which could put some farm operations at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates increased substantially in 2023 and 2024, while crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. For farm operators that experienced crop losses in 2024 due to weather issues, the financial situation is likely even more severe. The struggling profit margins for crop producers are somewhat linked to discussions on the new Farm Bill and the need for improved risk management tools for farmers. Swine producers have also had very low or negative profit margins for much of the time in the past two years. Some dairy and poultry producers have been dealing with the financial impacts of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in certain areas of the U.S.
• TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY - Tariffs and trade policy have received a lot of discussion since the recent Presidential Election. President-Elect Trump has threatened to impose large additional tariffs on a variety of goods being imported into the United States from China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries. If the U.S. implements additional tariffs, there is high likelihood that the other countries could impose retaliatory tariffs on products and goods that are exported by the U.S. into these countries. China, Canada and Mexico are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports, including corn, soybeans, ethanol, pork, beef, and dairy products. The trade war with China during the first Trump administration had a significant impact on the commodity prices of soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products. Farm groups are also hopeful that the new administration and leadership in Congress can negotiate new bi-lateral trade agreements with other countries, in addition to normalizing relations with China, Canada and Mexico.
• RENEWABLE FUELS AND ENERGY - The next Administration and Congress will need to decide what direction the U.S. takes toward further development of renewable fuels industry through the renewable fuels standards (RFS), year-round E-15 blends, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other incentives for renewable fuels, such as tax credits, etc. Ethanol and renewable diesel production have a major economic impact for farm operators, as well as for the overall rural economy in the Upper Midwest. Many ag leaders point to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers and the processing plants, some of the current feedstock for SAF production, such as used cooking oil, is being imported from other countries.
• IMMIGRATION REFORM --- We are likely to see some significant changes in U.S. immigration policy by the new Administration and Congress; however, many industries, including the agriculture industry, could be significantly impacted by some of the potential immigration reform policies. Both production agriculture and the ag processing industry rely heavily on an immigrant workforce, so major changes in getting needed workers into portions of the U.S. could greatly affect the rural economy in some locations. What is really needed is for Congress and the Administration to develop an immigration policy that secures the U.S. border, but also allows needed immigration to satisfy labor shortages in some segments of the economy.
The new Farm Bill, the struggling rural economy, ag trade agreements, and the future of renewable energy are only a few of the issues affecting farm families and rural businesses. There are many other issues and programs that affect rural families, businesses, and communities in a variety of ways. These include family health care access and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of rural areas, infrastructure needs, assistance for beginning farmers, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The next few months should be interesting as the policy initiatives of the new Administration and Congress are unveiled.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]