The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on June 11 did not change estimated 2026 corn or soybean production levels, and did not make any significant adjustments in the projected 2026-27 demand levels for either corn or soybeans. The only significant change in the June WASDE report from the May monthly report was a decline of 0.5 bushels per acre in the projected 2026 national average wheat yield, with a corresponding adjustment to the estimated 2026 wheat production and the 2026-27 ending stocks. There were no adjustments to the 2026-27 corn and soybean carryout levels.
 
Most grain marketing analysts viewed the June WASDE Report as generally “neutral” for both the corn and soybean market; however, there is some uncertainty with both crops related to the estimated 2026 acreage and production levels. The supply, production, ending stocks, and price projections in the current WASDE Report are for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years. The USDA marketing year for corn and soybeans for the 2025-26 began on September 1, 2025, and ends on August 31, 2026, and for the 2025-26 marketing year ends begins on September 1, 2026, and ends on August 31, 2027. The 2025-26 marketing year for wheat and small grains ended on May 31, 2026, and the 2026-27 marketing year extends from June 1, 2026, until May 31, 2027.
 
Following are some highlights of the June 11th USDA WASDE Report:
 
CORN
USDA is projecting 2025-26 corn ending stocks at 2.14 billion bushels, which is the same as the May estimate., and is the highest in recent years. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks estimate compares to 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. The projected corn supply for the balance of the 2025-26 marketing year remains quite large in many areas, which is could limit support for “old crop” corn prices this Summer. Farmers with some of last year’s corn still in storage will want to watch for rallies in local cash corn bids in the coming weeks to take advantage of the cash corn prices, as well as any short-term improvements in local corn basis levels.   
 
USDA kept the total estimated 2026 U.S. corn production at 15.99 billion bushels, which was the same as the May WASDE Report. The 2026 estimate compares to the record U.S. corn production level of 17.02 billion bushels in 2025, 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, 13.73 billion bushels in 2022 and 15.11 billion bushels in 2021. The projected average U.S. corn yield for 2026 in the June Report is 183 bushels per acre, which is the same as the May estimate. The 2026 yield projection compares to the current record national average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, 179.3 bushels per acre in 2024, 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022. The WASDE Report projects 2026 planted corn acres in the U.S at 95.3 million acres and harvested acres at 87.4 million acres. This compares to harvested acres of 91.3 million acres in 2025, 83 million acres in 2024, 86.5 million acres in 2023, and 78.7 million acres in 2022.  
 
USDA is estimating total corn usage for the 2026-27 marketing year at 16.2 billion bushels, which compares to projected final corn usage of 16.45 in 2025-26, 15.13 million bushels for 2024-25 and 14.97 billion bushels in 2023-24. Based on the projected decline U.S. corn acreage in 2026 and the estimated lower national average corn yield in 2026, along with a modest decrease in estimated corn usage, USDA is projecting a decrease in corn ending stocks by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year on August 31, 2027, compared to the current marketing year. The 2026-27 corn ending stocks are estimated at just below 1.96 billion bushels, which is 8.6 percent below the projected 2025-26 ending stocks; however, the 2026-27 ending stocks would still be 26.4 percent above the final 2024-25 ending stocks. The relatively high level of projected ending stocks may limit significant rallies in the 2026 “new crop” corn prices, unless some weather issues develop during the 2026 growing season.
The June 11 WASDE report estimated the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which was the same as a month earlier. USDA also left the 2026-27 corn price estimate unchanged from the May estimate at $4.40 per bushel. The corn price projections for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years compare to the final average corn prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $5.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current corn price projections are still well above the final average prices of $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20 and $3.61 per bushel in 2018-19. Local cash prices in Southern Minnesota for unpriced 2025 corn have dropped to near $3.70 per bushel at many locations, after trading above $4.00 per bushel a few weeks ago. “New crop” corn bids for Fall delivery of the 2026 corn crop are also currently below $4.00 per bushel at most grain elevators and ethanol plants in the region.
 
SOYBEANS
Based on the June 11 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is the same as the May WASDE report. The projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks compare to carryover levels of 325 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. The soybean ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected to decline by 30 million bushels from the anticipated 2025-26 carryout levels, resulting in in ending stocks estimated at 310 million bushels. USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2026-27 at 4.49 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 218 million bushels from the estimated final 2025-26 usage level.
 
USDA is estimating the 2026 planted soybean acres at 84.7 million acres and the projected U.S. average soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, which compares to 81.2 million planted acres and a final national average yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025. Some crop experts feel that the 2026 U.S. soybean acreage could be adjusted higher in the June 30 USDA Crop Acreage Report, due to a shift from corn acres resulting from the higher fertilizer prices. Marketing analysts will also be keeping a close eye on the national average soybean yield, which could be highly variable in future months, depending on growing season weather patterns in the soybean production areas.
 
The June 11 WASDE Report listed the projected average U.S “on-farm” soybean price for the 2026-27 marketing at $11.40 per bushel, which is the same as the May estimate. This would be a $1.00 per bushel above the estimated average soybean price of $10.40 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026. The USDA soybean price projections for 2026-27 and 2025-26 compare to other recent final average prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, and $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23. Soybean prices at processing plants in Southern Minnesota for the remaining 2025 crop were trading just below $11.00 per bushel following the WASDE report. The cash soybean price has declined in recent weeks, after increasing by over $1.00 per bushel earlier this Spring. Contract prices for Fall delivery of the 2026 soybean crop in Southern Minnesota are slightly below the current cash prices at the processing plants, with even lower prices at local elevators.
 
WHEAT
USDA made no changes in the final 2026-27 wheat demand in the latest WASDE report; however, the 2026-27 ending stocks were lowered slightly due to reduction in the estimated 2026 average wheat yield. USDA is projecting total 2026 wheat acres at 43.8 million acres and a 2026 U.S. average wheat yield of 47 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production level of 1.543 billion bushels. This compares to wheat acreage levels on 45.3 million acres in 2025 and 46.3 million acres in 2024, along with final average wheat yields of 53.3 bushels per acre in 2025 and 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024. USDA is projecting the 2026-27 wheat ending stocks at 744 million bushels, which was lowered by 18 million bushels from the May estimate, and compares to carryout levels of 935 million bushels in 2025-26 and 855 million bushels in 2024-25.  USDA estimated the 2026-27 U.S. average wheat price at $6.00 per bushel, which was lowered by $.50 per bushel from the May WASDE report due to current wheat price trends. The 2026-27 price estimate compares to final average wheat prices of $5.05 per bushel in 2025-26 and $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25.  
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

The Spring planting season of 2026 has been a mixed scenario for farmers across the Upper Midwest. Favorable weather conditions from late April until mid-May allowed for corn and soybean planting to be completed in many areas of the Midwest; however, frequent rainfall events during much of May has slowed planting progress in some portions on the eastern and southern Corn Belt. A cooler than normal weather pattern during the first half of May slowed corn and soybean development in the Upper Midwest. Many areas were also negatively impacted by very strong winds and dust storms in mid-May, as well as some isolated frost damage and severe weather..
 
Total rainfall amounts across the primary crop production regions of the U.S. during the month of May were quite variable. Most areas received some precipitation during May, with portions of the Eastern Corn Belt getting excess rainfall that delayed planting and caused some crop loss. On the other hand, some portions of the Western Corn Belt received less than normal rainfall in May, and continue to have some drought concern as we advance through the 2026 growing season.
 
As of May 27, the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center at Waseca had recorded only 1.85 inches of rainfall during May, with over 70 percent of the precipitation occurring from May 17 and 18. The May rainfall in Waseca was 2.62 inches below the long-term average monthly precipitation for May. The Waseca location received 2.67 inches of precipitation in April, which was .63 inches below normal. Total 2026 precipitation at the Waseca location was 8.25 inches, which is 4.24 inches below normal. As of May 27, the U of M Southwest Research and Outreach Center at Lamberton had received only 1.07 inches of rainfall during May, which is over 2 inches below normal. This followed an April precipitation total of 3.21 inches, which was slightly above normal. Total stored soil measurements at the Lamberton site on May 15 were very near the long-term average and were improved over stored soil moisture levels in late May a year ago.
 
A large portion of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, North and South Dakota dealt with strong winds and a couple of severe dust storms in mid-May. The dust storms resulted in light to moderate damage to thousands of acres of crop land in the affected States. Some areas of the Upper Midwest also had light to moderate frost on a few dates during mid-May, as well as some hail associated with severe storms. A majority of the corn and soybeans in the affected region were small enough to have very little impact from the extreme winds, frost or hail; however, there were some isolated reports of replanting being necessary on earlier planted corn and soybeans. There was also some reported damage to small sugar beet plants in portions of western Minnesota.
 
Based on the May 26 USDA Crop Progress Report, 86 percent of the corn in the U.S. was planted, which compares to a 5-year average of 83 percent planted by that date. As of May 27, corn planting was over 90 percent completed and corn emergence was ahead of normal in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota however, corn planting completion was at only 63 percent in Ohio, 75 percent in Mchigan,76 percent in Indiana, and 82 percent in Wisconsin. The May 27 USDA Report showed that 79 percent of the soybeans nationwide were planted, which is well-above the planting pace in 2025, and compares to a 5-year average soybean planting rate of 68 percent by that date. Similar to corn, soybean planting well ahead of normal in most of the major soybean-producing States in the Upper Midwest but trailed the normal planting pace in portions of the eastern Corn Belt.
 
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on May 28 showed that over 77 percent of the U.S. was experiencing some level of drought, with over 60 percent of the country in in the “moderate: drought category or worse. About the only areas of the U.S. with very little drought are the Eastern Corn Belts and the Great Lakes States. In Nebraska, 95 percent of the state was in some level of drought, with extreme drought conditions dominating the western two-thirds of the State. Higher levels of drought conditions also existed in Kansas and South Dakota, along with expanding drought areas in southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa.
 
Based on the May 26 USDA Crop Progress Report, 38 percent of the primary crop production area in the U.S. reported “short” or “very short” top soil moisture levels, with the highest percentages reported in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Kansas. The national crop rating that was released on May 26 indicated that 44 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated “poor” to “very poor”, with only 27 percent of the crop rated “good” to “excellent”. The winter wheat conditions were even more severe in Nebraska and Kansas, with “poor” to “very poor” ratings 82 percent and 55 percent. The late-May top soil moisture levels in most other areas of the Midwest were closer to long-term averages, including some areas of surplus moisture in the eastern Corn Belt.  Portions of the western Corn Belt have received some much-needed rainfall during the last week of May.
 
The level of growing degree units (GDU’s), which measure growing conditions for corn and soybeans, was near normal for the month of May at many locations in the Midwest; however, most areas dealt with very extreme GDU accumulation, from very low in early May to quite high at the end of the month.  A total of 374 GDU’s had accumulated at the U of M Research Center at Waseca since May 1, which was 54 GDU’s ahead of normal accumulation, and compares to 346 GDU’s accumulated by May 31, 2025. As of May 26, the GDU accumulation during the month of May at the U of M Research Center at Lamberton was as slightly ahead of normal. Much of the corn in the Upper The very warm temperatures at the end of May and the first few days of June should help push crop development ahead of normal, except in areas with limited moisture, as well as in locations with replant acres or late planted row crops.
 
Given the better than average start to the 2026 growing season in many key corn producing States, there is certainly potential that the 2026 U.S. corn yield could meet or exceed the U.S. “trendline” corn yield near 183 bushels per acre.. However, the growing drought area in the Plains States and large area of abnormally dry conditions in other portions the Midwest has raised some concerns regarding the final 2026 corn yield levels in some areas. The other factor besides the national average crop yields that will affect final 2026 U.S. corn and soybean production will be the final 2026 planted crop acreage. The March 30 USDA Planting Intentions Report estimated that 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans would be planted in 2026 We should get a much clearer indication of the final corn and soybean planting numbers in the June 30th USDA Crop Acreage Report and the 2026 prevented planted acreage data in July.
 
USDA Announces Farm Program Base Acre Update
Eligible landowners will have the opportunity to increase their crop base acres for potential Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) farm program payments in future years. The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) recently announced that the eligible landowners will receive a notice of possible changes in their crop base acres, and will have from now until August 31, 2026 to finalize the proposed base acre updates. The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) that was signed into law in 2025 provided for several updates to Title I commodity program provisions in the Farm bill. One of these updated allowed for the addition of up to 30 million more farm program base acres, which will be allocated among eligible program crops.
 
The added base acres will be for acres planted to farm program crops that are currently not eligible for farm program benefits. Potential updates to base acres were determined from the actual planted crop acres each year from 2019 to 2023 that were reported to FSA offices, including any prevented planted acres. The base acre update is for added crop base acres and will not impact existing base acres. There will not be an opportunity to change or update existing crop base acres. The new crop base acres will be eligible for farm program benefits for the 2026 crop year; however, no announcement has been made as to when 2026 farm program sign-up will begin. For details on the crop base acre update, landowners can contact their local FSA office or go to the special FSA website at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

There is a wide variation in the number of crop producers across the United States that had all of their 2026 fertilizer needs already booked and paid for prior to the initiation of the current U.S. conflict in Iran. Producers that did not have all of their likely fertilizer needs in place for the 2026 crop year prior to March may be experiencing some challenges in securing adequate fertilizer supplies for crop production this year. Farmers that needed to purchase all or part of their fertilizer needs this Spring have also faced much higher fertilizer costs. This further expands the financial challenges for farmers that were already facing very tight or negative breakeven crop production margins for the 2026 growing season.
 
The countries in the Persian Gulf region are major producers of many types of fertilizer that are used around the World for crop production. The region is a major producer of nitrogen fertilizer, which is very important for the production of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops. Approximately 49 percent of the urea and 30 percent of the anhydrous ammonia in the World, which are both important nitrogen fertilizer sources, are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz each year. In addition, about 44 percent of the sulfur and 16 percent of the phosphate fertilizer is shipped through the Strait annually. Since early March, very little fertilizer has been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Any impacts on these fertilizer resources not only affects the U.S, but impacts nearly every major agricultural country in the World.
 
The United States relies both on fertilizer produced domestically, as well as imports from other countries, to meet the fertilizer needs for crop production in the U.S. The impact of outside conflicts, such as the war in Iran, varies by the fertilizer nutrient. The U.S. imports approximately 13 percent of the nitrogen and 16 percent of the phosphate that is used on annual basis, which could be subject to global trade disruptions caused by the current war. The U.S. also imports about 95 percent of the potash fertilizer used in crop production; however, a large majority of the potash is imported from Canada. In fact, over 50 percent of all fertilizer imports into the U.S. comes from Canada, compared to less than 10 percent of imports from the Persian Gulf region. Other major crop production regions in the World, such as South America, Europe, and some Asian countries are much more reliant on the Persian Gulf fertilizer exports than the U.S.
 
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) conducted a “Fertilizer Availability Survey” in early April and received responses from over 5,700 farmers across the U.S. Based on the survey, 67 percent of farmers in the Midwest States had already secured their fertilizer needs for the 2026 crop year; however, that still left one-third of producers with the need to purchase some or all of their fertilizer for the coming growing season. Farmers in the Midwest region, which is the primary corn and soybean production area in the U.S., tend to do more pre-booking of fertilizer needs prior to planting season, compared to other areas of the country. The early-April rates for meeting 2026 needs were much lower in other areas of the U.S., with only 19 percent of the fertilizer purchased in Southern States, 30 percent purchased in Western States, and 31 percent purchased in Northeast States. This difference reflects differences in the crop mix and management practices in the various regions of the country.
 
The AFBF survey results also revealed a wide difference by farm size in the percentage of producers that still needed to secure their fertilizer needs for 2026, following the impacts from the war in Iran. In all regions of the U.S., the larger farms (2,500 acres or more) had a much higher percentage of this year’s fertilizer needs pre-booked by early March, compared to the small sized farm operations (under 500 acres). In the primary corn and soybean production area of the Midwest, over three-fourths of the large farms (2,500 acres and more) and medium size farms (500 to 2,499 acres) had their 2026 fertilizer needs pretty well in place. This compared to less than half of the small farms (less than 500 acres) with their 2026 fertilizer needs secured. In the other regions of the U.S., 25 percent or less of the small farms had their fertilizer needs in place for the current growing season at the time the survey was conducted.
 
Update on Fertilizer Prices
The World fertilizer industry is controlled by a few very large, multi-national fertilizer companies, which tend to set prices for most fertilizer nutrients on a worldwide basis. This means that even though the U.S. may not import large quantities of certain fertilizer nutrients from Persian Gulf region, the price increases caused by the shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will likely still impact all fertilizer prices in the U.S. For example, if countries that rely heavily on Persian Gulf fertilizer sources are forced to go elsewhere to meet their needs, it will likely increase nutrient costs in those countries. In addition, if fertilizer supplies get tight, some countries may restrict exports or put extra export fees or tariffs on fertilizer that is exported to the U.S.
 
The cost of all types of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate increased significantly following the initiation of the war in Iran and have stayed quite high into mid-May. The price of Urea, a major nitrogen fertilizer source in the U.S., increased by about 43 percent, or over $250 per ton, from late February until mid-May. The average price per ton of anhydrous ammonia and other common nitrogen fertilizer products also increased by over $60 per ton or about 31 percent from late February until mid-May. The cost of most forms of phosphate fertilizer has increased by around 8 percent since the initiation of the conflict in Iran; however, the average cost of phosphate fertilizer in mid-May of 2026 has increased by over 15 percent from cost levels a year earlier. Potash is the only major crop fertilizer nutrient that has not had much of price impact since the war in Iran began.
 
Even before the initiation of the war in Iran, the average 2026 fertilizer cost for corn production in the Midwest was estimated to be $20 to $30 per acre higher than fertilizer costs in either 2024 or 2025. Fertilizer cost represented 15-20 percent of the total cost of production for raising corn in the U.S. in every year from 2010 to 2025, except in 2022. That year, the rate was 25 percent of corn production costs, following the higher fertilizer costs that resulted from the outbreak of Russian War in Ukraine. Fertilizer analysts are now estimating that fertilizer expense will average 21 percent of the 2026 corn production cost; however, there will likely be a wide variation among producers, depending on when they made their fertilizer purchases for the current crop year. The combination of much higher fertilizer and fuel costs, together with increases in other crop input expenses, has resulted in most crop producers showing negative estimated net returns over costs for the 2026 crop year, based on average crop yields and current market price projections.
 
Final thoughts on the changes in Fertilizer Supplies and Prices
It appears that approximately three-fourths of farmers in the Midwest had already locked-in their fertilizer needs and costs for the 2026 growing season by early April. For those producers, the recent rapid increase in fertilizer costs may have a minimal impact on their fertilizer expense for the current year. However, fertilizer costs could be much higher for farmers that needed to purchase all or part of their fertilizer needs since the war in Iran was initiated in March this year. Some farmers may also choose to lower their 2026 fertilizer application rates due to fertilizer availability and cost. Farmers and grain marketing analysts will be watching closely to see if the current fertilizer situation causes any adjustments in the final 2026 planted corn and soybean acres later this year.
 
If the war with Iran continues for several months, or if the conflict expands to include other countries, the fertilizer supply and cost issue could become even worse for the 2027 crop year in the U.S., as well as in many other countries. Many Midwest farmers will start lining up their fertilizer needs and pre-paying fertilizer expenses for the 2027 crop year by early Fall this year. For many producers, fertilizer prices will be higher for the 2027 crop year than they are in the current year. There are currently few indications thar farmers will receive higher market prices for their 2026 crops later this year, or in 2027, to help offset the higher fertilizer prices.
 
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on May 12 was the first official USDA projected corn and soybean production levels, usage, and ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year. The latest WASDE Report also updated supply and demand estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2026 for corn and soybeans, and on May 31, 2026 for wheat and other small grain crops. From a grain marketing standpoint, the initial reaction to the WASDE report was positive for corn, soybeans, and wheat, before markets declined by the end of the week.
Following are some highlights of the latest USDA WASDE Report:
CORN
Based on the May 12 USDA WASDE Report, the projected corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year are estimated at 2.14 billion bushels, which is similar to the April Report, but is approximately 35 percent above the estimated carryout levels in May a year ago. The anticipated 2025-26 corn ending stocks represents a substantial increase from the carryout levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn usage for 2025-2026 at just under 16.5 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, exports, etc., which is an increase of 8.8 percent or 1.3 billion bushels compared to the 2024-25 usage level. The higher estimated corn usage was primarily due to increases in the estimated amount of corn used for feed and ethanol production in 2025-26, as well as significant increase in corn export levels, compared to a year earlier. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in 2024-25 and 11.8 percent in 2023-24
The May WASDE Report also offered an initial USDA estimate for corn carryover levels in the 2026-27 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2027. The corn ending stocks were estimated at just under 1.98 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of about 185 million bushels compared to the end of the 2023-24 marketing year. The projected 2026-27 the carryout level was very near the average grain-trade estimates. The 2026-27 stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease to 12.1 percent, compared to a year earlier. USDA is estimating the total corn supply for 2026-27 at 18.16 billion bushels, with the total corn usage for the year at just over 16.2 billion bushels. USDA is forecasting a slight decrease in corn usage for livestock feed and lower U.S. corn export levels, along with stable corn usage for ethanol production in 2026-27.
USDA is estimating total U.S. corn production in 2026 at nearly 16 billion bushels, which would be down 6 percent from the record 2025 production of just over 17 billion bushels. The USDA Report expects an estimated 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted in the U.S. in 2026, which compares to 98.8 million acres in 2025 and 90.9 million acres in 2024. Some analysts feel that the final 2026 corn acreage may be reduced slightly, due to the fertilizer supply and price. USDA is projecting the average U.S. corn yield at 183 bushels per acre in 2026, which would be below the record average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, but above the 2024 average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. Corn planting progress in 2026 has been running ahead of normal in many areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt, but has been slightly behind normal in portions of the northern Corn Belt.
In the latest WASDE report, USDA is projecting the 2026-27 average U.S “on-farm” corn price at $4.40 per bushel. The 2026-27 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027. As of May 12, USDA is estimating the U.S. average corn price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which is the same as the April estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year ends on August 31, 2026. The current projected corn price estimates compare to recent final national average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22.
SOYBEANS
Based on the May 12 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is a decline of 10 million bushels from the April estimate and was close to the average grain trade estimates. The projected 2025-26 soybean ending stocks are similar to recent soybean carryover levels of 325 million bushels in 2024-25 and 342 million bushels in 2023-24; however, it would be significantly higher than the carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23 and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. The projected ending stocks are still well below 525 million bushels in 2019-20 and 909 million bushels in 2018-19.
Total soybean usage for 2025-26 is estimated to be just over 4.27 billion bushels, which is down from the total usage of 4.42 billion bushels in 2024-25. Soybean export levels for 2025-26 are projected to decrease by 352 million bushels compared to a year earlier, which was somewhat offset by a projected increase185 million bushels in soybeans used for processing, compared to crush levels a year earlier. The actual soybean usage in the next couple years will likely depend on actual export volume to China and other countries, as well as the soybean crush levels that result from the new or expanded soybean processing plants that have come on board recently.
The latest WASDE Report projects soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels at the end of the 2026-27 marketing year that ends on August 31, 2027, which would be a decline of 30 million bushels from 2025-26 levels. USDA is estimating the U.S. soybean supply to increase by 173 million bushels in 2026-27; while the total soybean usage is expected to increase by 218 million bushels compared to usage for 2025-26 levels The increased usage is due to increases in both soybean crush and export levels. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2026-27 is estimated at 6.9 percent, which compares to 8 percent in 2025-26 and 7.4 percent in 2024-25.
Total U.S. soybean production in 2026 is estimated at 4.435 billion bushels, which would be an increase from the estimated production of 4.26 billion bushels in 2025, and is similar to 4.37 billion bushels in 2024. Planted soybean acres for 2026 are projected at 83.7 million acres, which is up from 80.4 million acres in 2025, but lower than 86.2 million acres in 2024. USDA is estimating a national average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2026, which would match the record U.S. soybean yield in 2025. Other recent U.S. average soybean yields were 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023 and 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022.
USDA is estimating the U.S “on-farm” soybean average price at $11.40 per bushel for the 2026-27 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2027. The preliminary price estimate for the 2026-27 marketing year would represent an increase of $1.00 per bushel from the current 2025-26 average price estimate of $10.40 per bushel. The projected 2026-27 and 2025-26 soybean prices compare to final average soybean prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The final average soybean price for 2026-27 will likely be highly dependent on the 2026 soybean production in the U.S. and South America, as well as the actual soybean crush and export levels.
WHEAT
The May 12 WASDE Report projected U.S. wheat ending stocks to decrease by 173 million bushels to 762 million bushels by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year on May 31, 2027. This compares to estimated ending stocks of 935 million bushels for 2025-26 and 855 million bushels in 2024-25. Total U.S. wheat usage for 2026-27 is estimated at just over 1.87 billion bushels, which is a decrease of 156 million bushels from projected usage levels for 2025-26, due to likely declines in both feed usage and export levels. U.S. wheat acreage in 2026 is projected at 43.8 million acres, which is down from 45.3 million acres in 2025 and 46.3 million acres in 2024. Total U.S. wheat production in 2026 is expected to decrease by 21 percent from a year earlier to 1.56 billion bushels. The 2026 U.S, average wheat yield is estimated at 47.5 bushels per acre. USDA is projecting the average “on-farm” wheat price at $6.50 per bushel for 2026-27 and $5.00 per bushel for 2025-26, which compares to other recent final national average prices of $5.52 in 2024-25, $8.83 in 2022-23, and $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22.
Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

In the past 2-3 years, there have been very few good opportunities for farmers to market corn and soybeans at favorable price levels. This has resulted in a large amount of grain being sold below breakeven levels, as well as a significant amount of the 2025 corn crop being still in storage on farms across the Midwest. This has also left farmers with some very difficult grain marketing decisions for both the grain that is still in storage, as well as for the 2026 crop that is currently being planted. In recent weeks, there has been a bit more optimism, with some improvement in corn and soybean prices.
Nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed at $12.03 per bushel on May 1, which was an increase of 25 cents for the week. The nearby CBOT futures price has risen by over a $1.50 per bushel since the beginning of 2026; however there has been a lot of volatility in day-to-day soybean market closing prices. The 2026 CBOT soybean futures price surpassed the early May CBOT prices of $10.50 per bushel in 2025 and $11.63 per bushel in 2024; however, the 2026 closing price is still well below the early May closing prices of $14.99 per bushel in 2023, $16.65 per bushel in 2022, and $14.03 per bushel in 2021.
Nearby CBOT corn futures closed at $4.80 per bushel on May 1, which was highest closing price for the July futures contract in the past 13 months. The nearby corn futures price has risen by about $.40 per bushel since the beginning of 2026, and is about $.50 above the nearby CBOT futures price during harvest season in the Fall of 2025. Similar to soybeans, the 2026 May 1 CBOT corn futures price surpassed the early May CBOT prices of $4.72 per bushel in 2025 and $4.46 per bushel in 2024. The current 2026 corn futures price is still well below the early May closing prices of $5.85 per bushel in 2023, $7.84 per bushel in 2022, and $5.77 per bushel in 2021.
From 2021 until early 2023, nearby futures prices on the CBOT for both corn and soybeans were at the highest sustained levels since a similar period a decade earlier from 2011 to 2013. This allowed for some excellent profit margins for Midwest corn and soybean producers during that period, especially for farmers that had average or above average crop yields in those years. The nearby CBOT corn futures price exceeded $5.00 per bushel from early 2021 until late June of 2023, and remained above $6.00 per bushel from early 2022 until late April of 2023. Prior to 2021, the nearby corn futures price had not been above $5.00 per bushel since late Summer of 2013. In fact, from 2015 through 2020, nearby corn futures were below $4.00 per bushel for a high percentage of the time, which provided for very challenging profit years for farmers.
Similar to corn, the nearby CBOT soybean futures price exceeded $13.00 per bushel from early in 2021 until late in 2023, except for a few months in the Fall of 2021. Nearby soybean futures prices exceeded $14.00 per bushel most of the time in 2022, trading above $16.00 per bushel for a few months in the Spring and early Summer that year. Prior to late 2020, the nearby soybean futures price had not exceeded $12.00 per bushel since late Summer of 2014. From 2011 through 2013, nearby soybean futures exceeded $13.00 per bushel for much of that period. The all-time high soybean futures price of $17.68 per bushel occurred in September during the drought year of 2012. On the other hand, soybean futures traded near or below $9.00 per bushel much of the time during 2018 and 2019, due to the effects of the U.S. trade war with China.
The downturn in the CBOT prices during 2024 and 2025 for both corn and soybeans was driven by a combination of increasing U.S. and World grain stocks and struggling export demand for both commodities, along favorable U.S. corn and soybean production in 2025. Recent improvement in grain prices has been driven by strong domestic demand and solid export sales in recent months, along with more manageable worldwide grain supplies. However, the large projected levels of 2025 corn and soybean ending stocks in the U.S. has tempered some of the enhancement in cash grain markets. The current war in Iran has also created some uncertainty in the grain markets. The markets are now focused on 2026 planting progress and growing season crop conditions in the U.S.
The “basis” level for local corn and soybean cash price bids in most areas of the Upper Midwest became wider in 2024 and 2025, and basis levels have remained quite wide during the first few months of 2026. The “basis” is the difference between the local cash price being offered in a given month and the closet CBOT futures price. The cash corn basis level in Southern Minnesota in recent months has been $.40 to $.50 per bushel under nearby CBOT prices at most locations, with slightly better basis levels at some ethanol plants and feed mills, The soybean basis level in the region at soybean processing plants has been $.30 to $.40 per bushel below the CBOT nearby futures price, while basis levels at local grain elevators has generally been $.50-$.70 under CBOT futures prices. Current cash basis levels are slightly wider than at this time a year ago. Many processing plants and local elevators in the Corn Belt offered cash prices with a positive basis at certain times during 2022 and 2023.
 
Current Grain Marketing Opportunities
The current rise in grain prices has certainly been welcome news to farmers who still had some 2025 corn and soybeans stored in grain bins for future sales. The cash soybean price at Southern Minnesota processing plants topped $11.70 per bushel on May 1, which is one of the highest cash prices in the past two years. Many farmers had already sold all of their 2025 soybean crop after harvest or in early 2026 for cash flow purposes when soybean prices were about $1.50 per bushel lower than current levels. Cash corn prices are $4.15 to $4.25 per bushel at many locations in southern Minnesota; however, cash corn prices did not top $4.00 per bushel until recent weeks. Most producers likely had a breakeven level above $4.50 per bushel for the 2025 corn crop.
Once farm operators reach planting season, they pay close attention to “new crop” corn and soybean prices for harvest season and beyond at local grain elevators and processing plants. Cash bids for Fall delivery of the 2026 corn crop at local grain elevators and ethanol plants in Southern Minnesota on May 1 ranged from $4.25 to $4.50 per bushel at many locations, which is slightly higher than a year ago and similar to early May “new crop” corn bids in 2024. Cash bids for 2026 “new crop” soybeans at grain elevators in Southern Minnesota are near $10.75 to $11.00 per bushel, with forward prices just above $11.25 per bushel at processing plants. The current cash soybean harvest bids for 2026 are nearly $1.50 per bushel higher than a year ago, and are similar to early May soybean harvest bids in 2024.
Harvest price bids for corn are based on the CBOT 2026 December futures price, while soybean harvest bids are based on the November futures price. The corn basis level for the Fall of 2026 remains quite wide at about $.50 to $.60 per bushel at local ethanol plants and grain elevators in Southern Minnesota. The soybean basis for the Fall of 2026 has been near $.50 per bushel under at soybean processing plants and $.80 to $.90 per bushel below the CBOT November futures price at grain elevators. The basis levels at local grain elevators and processing plants are important to farm operators for determining pre-harvest grain market strategies in a given year.
In the past twenty years (2006-2025), the CBOT December corn futures price has increased at least $.20 per bushel above the Spring crop insurance price (average price in February) in 18 of 20 years, and has increased by at least $.30 per bushel in 16 years, and by at least $.40 per bushel in 12 years. The median increase in the December price has been $.59 per bushel. The 2026 Spring crop insurance price for corn was $4.61 per bushel, and CBOT December closing price on May 1 was $4.99 per bushel, or $.38 per bushel above the Spring price.
Grain marketing decisions for 2026 will likely be very difficult for most producers, with current cash prices below breakeven levels. For many Midwest crop producers, the breakeven levels to cover direct and overhead expenses on cash rented land in 2026 will likely be near or exceed $5.00 per bushel for corn, and be over $11.00 per bushel for soybeans. In many years, the Spring and early Summer months usually offer some of the best opportunities to forward price “new crop” corn and soybeans. Unless there is a drought or other crop issues in the U.S. in 2026, corn and soybean prices are likely to follow this more typical seasonal price pattern as we progress toward harvest this year. Further export issues with tariffs or a worsening of the war in Iran could put further pressure on grain prices; however, passage of year-round E-15 ethanol usage could be a boost for markets.

USDA announced that eligible farmers will receive additional Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) payments in the coming weeks through Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. The additional payments will essentially double any SDRP payments that farmers received previously. A total of about 16 billion dollars was available for the SDRP program, as part of the farm disaster assistance funds that were allocated by Congress in December of 2024. The SDRP payments were initiated to offset crop losses that producers incurred in both the 2023 and 2024 crop years. The crop losses were calculated separately for each year, so eligible farmers could potentially have received a payment for each year. USDA also announced that sign-up for the SDRP program at local FSA offices will be extended until August 12, 2026, from the current deadline of April 30, 2026.
SDRP “Stage 1” payments were paid to farmers with eligible crops that had a federal crop insurance policy in place in 2023 and 2024, or that had crops enrolled in the Noninsured Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) in 2023 and 2024. To qualify for “Stage 1”, farmers needed to have received a crop insurance indemnity payment or a NAP payment tied to a qualifying crop disaster in 2023 or 2024. Qualifying disasters include floods, wildfires, hurricanes, freezes, excessive moisture, heat, and qualifying drought. Eligibility for drought losses was restricted to farmers in counties that experienced a drought level of “D3” or higher at in 2023 or 2024, or in counties that were at a “D2” drought level for eight or more consecutive weeks, based on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.
Stage 2 of the SDRP program was for crop losses from similar qualifying crop disasters in 2023 and 2024 that were required for SDRP Stage 1. SDRP Stage 2 includes assistance for “uncovered” crop losses, crop “quality” losses, and “shallow” crop losses. The “uncovered” crop losses were targeted toward crops that are not covered by federal crop insurance or the NAP program. This could include certain fruit and vegetable crops, tree farms, etc. The crop “quality” losses included losses that resulted in quality discounts in a crop that were not covered by crop insurance, such as may have occurred from flooding. Forage crops that had reduced nutritional value may also be eligible for “quality” losses under Stage 2 of SDRP.
The “shallow” crop losses in Stage 2 were intended to cover did not meet the threshold requirements for Stage 1 SDRP payments. This is the category that most Midwest corn, soybean, and wheat producers fell under for potential Stage 2 SDRP eligibility. The type of eligible losses and the payment formulas and calculations for Stage 2 were different from the calculations that were used for SDRP Stage 1 payments. As a result, a very small percentage of producers were able to qualify for SDRP Stage 2 payments due to “shallow” crop losses in 2023 and 2024., which has limited the total payments that will likely be paid under SDRP Stage 2.
SDRP Stage 1 payments were determined by taking the original crop insurance projected revenue (APH yield times the Spring price for the crop) times an established factor (.95 for 80% or 85% crop insurance coverage, .925 for 75% coverage, etc.) to arrive at the SDRP crop revenue. The actual crop value (final 2024 or 2023 crop insurance yield times the RMA harvest price for 2023 or 2024) and the “net” crop insurance indemnity payment received were subtracted from the SDRP revenue total to calculate the maximum SDRP eligibility. The maximum SDRP eligibility was then multiplied by a factor of 35 percent (.35) to arrive at the net SDRP Stage 1 payment amount. The additional SDRP payment that was just announced will pay an additional 35 percent (.35) of the original calculated SDRP payment eligibility, which will be similar for any Stage 2 payments.
The SDRP payment limit is $125,000 per eligible individual or entity, which increases to $250,000 if at least 75 percent of the reported gross income on the tax returns are derived from eligible farm-related operations. There are potential higher payment limits for certain specialty crops. There will be a separate payment limit for both 2023 and 2024. The first and second SDRP payments will be combined for payment limit purposes for each year. Once farmers hit the payment limit, they are not eligible for any additional SDRP payments for that year.
Eligible farmers that have already received a SDRP payment for 2023 or 2024 do not need to sign-up or complete any additional forms at their FSA office. The additional SDRP payments will be automatically paid electronically from FSA through direct deposit methods, similar to other FSA payments. Farmers that have not completed SDRP Stage 2 applications will still need to complete the appropriate forms and apply at their FSA office by August 12. USDA has a very comprehensive SDRP website available on SDRP payments and application procedures at: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/supplemental-disaster-relief-program-sdrp
 
SDRP Payment Distribution
The USDA SDRP website “dashboard” lists the approved SDRP Stage 1 applications and the total payment amount for the U.S., as well as the approved applications and payment amount for each State. The “dashboard” also lists the total SDRP amounts paid out for each eligible commodity. Based on the SDRP “dashboard” data, as of April 27, 2026, a total of just over $6.7 billion had been paid in total SDRP Stage 1 payments in the U.S. for 473,214 approved applications, which results in an average of $14,165 per approved application. Of the total SDRP payments, just under $2.5 billion has been paid for corn, just under $1.6 billion for soybeans, along with approximately $798 million for wheat, $541 million for cotton, $161 million for sorghum, and just over $80 million for both peanuts and rice., with lesser amounts for all other eligible crops.
Following are the top 10 States in total SDRP Stage 1 payments received, along with the number of the approved applications and the average payment per application:
1. Minnesota = $726.5 million paid; 48,091 approved applications; $15,106 per application.
2. Kansas = $708.4 million paid; 75,443 approved applications; $9,391 per application
3. Texas = $629.5 million paid; 44,133 approved applications; $14,265 per application
4. Iowa = $598.4 million paid; 52,397 approved applications; $11,421 per application
5. Nebraska = $511.1 million paid; 53,337 approved applications; $9,582 per application
6. South Dakota = $337.4 million paid; 28,335 approved applications; $11,908 per application
7. North Dakota = $333.3 million paid; 24,077 approved applications; $13,841 per application
8. Illinois = $262.1 million paid; 30,819 approved applications; $8,505 per application
9. Missouri = $186.5 million paid; 20,509 approved applications; $9,094 per application
10. California = $185.2 million paid; 5,936 approved applications; $31,192 per application
The SDRP payment amounts for each State will now be essentially doubled. There was no “dashboard” data available for SDRP Stage 2 payments; however, the total Stage 2 payments will be much lower than Stage 1.
 
Summary of the Additional SDRP Payments
On the surface, it appears that there is a wide disparity among States in the total amount of SDRP Stage 1 payments, approved SDRP applications, and the SDRP payment per application; however it is important to remember that these payments were based on average crop yields and national average crop prices in 2023 and 2024, States that had higher crop yields in those years likely had higher levels of farm revenue from crop production. For example, Minnesota had an average corn yield of 174 bushels per acre in 2024, compared to 217 bushels per acre in Illinois., with a 2024 national average corn price of $4.24 per bushel. This would result in a 2024 average gross revenue for corn of $738 per acre in Minnesota, compared to $920 per acre in Illinois, or an advantage of $182 per acre in Illinois. There was also a corn revenue advantage of $95 per acre in Illinois for 2023, compared to Minnesota. Based on average 2023 and 2024 corn acreage in each State, and the doubling of the SDRP payments, Minnesota farmers will receive a total of about $91 per acre in SDRP payments, compared to $24 per acre for Illinois farmers, or an advantage of $67 per acre total for Minnesota farmers for both years.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

Like the start of a big NASCAR race or the beginning of a Championship game, farmers in portions of the Upper Midwest began full-scale field work during the week of April 13-19. Farm operators in many portions of the western Corn Belt have reported almost ideal soil conditions for planting; however, rainfall and wet soil conditions during the first half of April has delayed the initiation of major fieldwork in some areas of Iowa and Southern Minnesota. It appears that the 2026 planting season may be similar to last year in much of the Upper Midwest, with fairly favorable corn and soybean planting conditions in the last half of April. Having favorable weather and planting conditions in April is important for getting the corn and soybean crop off to a good start. 
Some areas of the Midwest received some much-needed precipitation in late March and early April, including additional rainfall this past week in some areas. Much of eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin has received 2-3 inches of precipitation in the past few weeks, with even higher amounts in localized areas, which has delayed planting progress in these areas. Other areas of southern Minnesota, northern and central Iowa, and eastern South Dakota received more moderate amounts of rainfall. Precipitation amounts have been significantly less in much of the Western Corn Belt, where fieldwork progress is more advanced. 
The recent precipitation followed extremely dry conditions during most of the Winter and in much of March. This continued a dryness pattern across the western Corn Belt has existed since last Fall. In the latest USDA weekly crop report, the percentage of topsoil moisture in various States that was listed as “short” or “very short” included: Nebraska at 79%, Kansas at 60%, and South Dakota at 54%. In other Corn Belt States, Illinois was at 26%, Indiana at 25%, and Minnesota at 22%, with Iowa at 14% in the lower moisture categories. Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Dakota were all at less than 10 %. The levels of top soil moisture are below normal for early in the growing season in most areas of the Western Corn Belt and Plains States. 
Many areas of the Western Midwest and Plains States have remained quite dry in recent weeks. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor released on April 16 showed that nearly all of Nebraska and the south half of South Dakota were in “severe” to “extreme” drought. Northwest Iowa southern Illinois, southwest and northeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and much of Kansas were also listed in the “severe” drought category. Portions of central Illinois and Indiana, along with northwest Minnesota, were listed as “abnormally dry”. Most other areas of the Upper Midwest did not register a reading in the latest “U.S. Drought Monitor. 
Soil temperatures during early April have been quite variable in many areas of the Upper Midwest. At the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center near Waseca in Southern Minnesota, the 24-hour average soil temperature during the first week of April was near 40 degrees Fahrenheit at the 4-inch level; however, those soil temperatures warmed up to near 55 degrees by April 15, which is a desirable soil temperature for good corn planting and seed germination conditions. Soil temperatures in the Upper Midwest cooled again by April 18, but warmer temperatures are expected in late April. Farmers and agronomists tend to pay close attention to soil temperatures early in the growing season; however, soil temperatures become less of a concern by late April, when date of planting becomes more of a priority. Research has shown that soil conditions at the time of planting may be more critical than soil temperature for getting good germination and early season corn growth. 
Research shows that 50 percent corn emergence will occur in about 20 days at an average soil temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, which is reduced to only 10 days with an average soil temperature of 60 degrees F. The likely enhancement in soil temperatures certainly provides optimism to have favorable conditions for corn germination and seedling growth. The warmer soil temperatures are also favorable for the initiation of soybean planting, which also occurs in late April and May in many areas. Every year is different, and agronomists encourage producers to adjust to soil conditions and weather forecasts when making corn and soybean planting decisions. 
Unless conditions turn very wet in the next few weeks, a large majority of corn in Minnesota could easily be planted before the end of April or early May this year. Corn planting delays can significantly impact final corn yields. In both 2018 and 2019 a majority of the corn was planted from mid-May until early June. According to the USDA Weekly Planting Progress Report, only 2 percent of the corn in Minnesota had been planted at the end of April in 2019, which was about 15 days behind normal. Minnesota’s corn yield declined from record yield levels in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to 182 bushels per acre in 2018 and only 174 bushels per acre in 2019. In 2023, only 5 percent of the corn was planted by May 1 and the final statewide corn yield of 185 bushels per acre. 
Historically, early planting of corn usually leads to higher-than-normal state average corn yields in Minnesota and other Upper Midwest States. In several years when 50 percent or more of the corn acres in Minnesota have been planted in April or the first week of May, the State has usually set or been near a record corn yield. In 2015, corn planting in Minnesota was 83 percent completed by May 3, resulting in a record yield of 188 bushels per acre, which was followed with 89 percent of the corn planted by May 8 in 2016, again resulting in another record statewide corn yield of 193 bushels per acre. In 2020, when 76 percent of the corn was planted by May 3, the statewide corn yield was 192 bushels per acre, just short of the statewide record corn yield. One exception was in 2017, when most of Minnesota’s corn was planted in the first two weeks of May; however, very favorable growing conditions throughout the year in most areas resulted in a statewide record corn yield that year. 
The record corn yields of 201 bushels per acre in 2025 and 195 bushels per acre in 2022 were somewhat exceptions to the trend of April planting, as Minnesota did not achieve 50 percent of the corn planted until after May 10. It should be noted that a much higher percent of the corn in Southern Minnesota had been planted by May 10 in both of those years, and the counties in the southern third of the State were largely responsible for the record statewide corn yields. In addition, both of those years featured very favorable growing conditions following planting. Another exception was in 2021 when 71 percent of the statewide corn acreage was planted by May 3; however, the 2021 average corn yield in Minnesota was only 178 bushels per acre due to drought conditions in many portions of the State that reduced yields. In areas of the State that received adequate rainfall, the 2021 corn yields were above average to near record levels. 
Traditionally, once farmers have completed planting their corn acres, they move directly into soybean planting; however, in recent years some farmers have went to earlier soybean planting in April. Similar to earlier corn planting dates, research does show that with favorable growing conditions there is a yield advantage to planting soybeans in April or early May, as opposed to planting in late May. A majority of soybean producers in the Upper Midwest strive to plant soybeans in late April and early May; however, the ideal window to plant soybeans and still achieve optimum yields is much wider than with corn. Farmers in many areas have planted soybeans in late May, and even early June, and achieved favorable yield results. 
With the addition of the recent rainfall, soil conditions have been described as “almost ideal” for Spring planting by farm operators and agronomists in many areas the Upper Midwest. Significant amounts of precipitation have slowed planting progress in some areas; however, most crop producers in the region should be able to begin full-scale corn planting once soil conditions are fit. The recent precipitation should also provide adequate topsoil moisture for good corn germination and emergence in most of this region; however some rainfall may be needed in the western Corn Belt. Periodic moderate rainfalls during planting season can be beneficial for good seed germination and early season plant growth. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

The April 9 USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report did not include any significant changes to supply or demand, compared other recent WASDE reports. The 2025-26 projected ending stocks in the April report for corn and soybeans remained the same as the estimates a month earlier, while the wheat ending stocks were increased slightly. The expected 2025-26 market year average (MYA) prices for corn, soybeans and wheat were all increased slightly from the March price projections. This is important because it lowers the estimates for the potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments, which will be paid in October of 2026. These payments are very important this year for cash flow planning purposes. 
CORN
The latest WASDE report estimates the 2025-2026 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels, which would be an increase 37 percent from a year earlier. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks compare to a carry-out levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 bushels in 2021-22. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is estimated at 12.9 percent, which compares to ratios of 10.2 percent in 2024-25, 11.8 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23 and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. The current stocks-to-use ratio is still below the high corn stocks-to-use ratios of 14.6 percent for 2018-19, and 14.5 percent in 2017-18. The rather high projected carryout level could limit potential for significant rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months, especially if there are favorable weather conditions in the 2026 growing season. 
USDA is currently estimating the U.S market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $4.15 per bushel, which is an increase of $.05 per bushel the March estimate. The projected 2025-26 MYA price compares to recent national average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22. The 2025-2026 MYA price estimate for corn and soybeans is the expected average farm-level price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026; however, this does not represent the average price for either the 2025 or the 2026 calendar year. 
SOYBEANS
Soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year in the latest WASDE report are estimated at 350 million bushels. The projected 2025-26 carryout level compares to ending stocks of 325 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels for 2021-22. The projected soybean ending stocks for the current year would be highest in the past five years, but would still be considerably lower than the high carryout level of 913 million bushes in 2018-19, which existed during the last U.S. trade war with China. The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is now estimated at 8.2 percent, which compares to ratios of 7.3 percent in 2024-25, 8.3 percent in 2023-24, and 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22. The projected 2025-26 ratio is still well below the very high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19. There has been some improvement in soybean prices in recent weeks; however, further price enhancements will likely be dependent on future crush and export levels, along with 2026 growing conditions in the U.S. 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $10.30 per bushel, which is an increase of $.10 per bushel from the March estimate. The estimated 2025-26 market year average soybean price is above the final MYA price of $10,00 per bushel in 2024-25, which was the lowest average price since the 2020-21 marketing year. The 2025-26 price estimate compares to other recent average soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and the very low MYA price of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. Average cash soybean prices at local grain elevators in Southern Minnesota were $9.70 per bushel in mid-January, but were near $10.75 per bushel at the time of the April WASDE report. Prices at soybean processing plants were somewhat higher. 
WHEAT
The April WASDE report estimated the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 at 938 million bushels, which is an increase of 33.7 percent in the past two years. The projected 2025-26 wheat carryout level compares to 855 million bushels in 2024-25, 696 million bushels in 2023-24, and 570 million bushels in 2022-23. The 2025-26 farm-level average wheat price is now projected at $5.00 per bushel, which is an increase of $.05 per bushel from the March estimated price. The 2025-26 wheat price estimate compares to other recent MYA price levels of $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25, $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22, and $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21. The 2025-26 MYA price for wheat and other small grains is the average farm-level price in the U.S. from June 1, 2025 until May 31, 2026. 
2025 PLC or ARC-CO Payments Are Reduced 
The final 2025 MYA prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat are used to determine any potential Price Loss Coverage (PLC) or Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) payments for the 2025 crop year. If the MYA price for a crop is lower than the established reference price, there would a PLC payment. The potential ARC-CO payments are based on the MYA price and the final 2025 county average yield, compared to the benchmark (BM) price and county benchmark yield for 2025. For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of any potential PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops, with payments to be paid in October, 2026. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. 
Following is a brief summary of potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments: 
CORN - The 2025 PLC corn reference price is $4.42 per bushel, and the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $5.03 per bushel. Based on the April WASDE report, the estimated 2025 market year average (MYA) corn price is $4.15 per bushel. This is $.27 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 corn PLC payments and is $.88 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $30 to $40 per corn base acre, depending on the farm program yield. If the MYA price increases to $4.25 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would drop to about $20 to $30 per base acre; however, if the MYA price declines to $4.05 per bushel, the PLC estimate would increase to about $40 to $50 per base acre. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average corn yield that is about 5-10 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. The final 2025 ARC-CO payments will depend on specific county benchmark yields, as well as the final 2025 county average yields. 
SOYBEANS - The 2025 PLC soybean reference price is $10.71 per bushel, and the 2025 soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $12.17 per bushel. Based on the April WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is $10.30 per bushel. This is $.41 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 PLC payments and is $1.87 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $10.30 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $10 to $20 per soybean base acre. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. Similar to corn, final 2025 ARC-CO and PLC payments will vary depending on the final 2025 county yields and benchmark yields (ARC-CO), and on the established farm program yields (PLC). 
WHEAT - The 2025 PLC wheat reference price is $6.35 per bushel, and the 2025 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.98 per bushel. Based on the April WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA wheat price is $5.00 per bushel. This is $1.35 per bushel under the threshold for 2025 wheat PLC payments and is $1.98 below the 2025 benchmark price. At a final MYA price of $5.00 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be about $40 to $50 per base ace. At the current MYA price estimate, the 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a 2025 county wheat yield that is about 25 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield. It appears highly likely that there will be both a significant PLC or ARC-CO payment on wheat base acres for the 2025 crop year. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

The USDA “Prospective Plantings Report” that was released on March 31st projected a 3.4 percent decrease in 2026 U.S. corn acreage compared to a year ago, along with a 4.3 percent increase in 2026 soybean acreage from a year earlier. The USDA planting intentions numbers came in slightly higher than the grain trade expected for corn acreage and slightly lower than trade estimates for soybean acreage. The USDA “Quarterly Grain Stocks Report” was also released on March 31st, which lists the estimated U.S. grain inventory as of March 1, 2026, for both “on-farm” and commercial grain storage. The USDA estimates for U.S. corn and soybean inventories came in near the average stocks estimates of the grain traders. 
The USDA prospective planting acreage is based on survey data collected from about 73,800 surveys sent to crop producers in early March. Total U.S. crop acreage was listed at 223.8 million acres expected to be planted to corn, soybeans, and wheat in 2026, which down from 225.3 million acres in 2025, but is similar to total 2024 crop acreage. The USDA estimates for intended 2026 U.S. corn and soybean acreage was viewed as mainly “nuetral” for “new crop” corn and soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). After the USDA planting intentions report was released on March 31, December 2026 both CBOT December corn and November soybean futures closed up slightly. 
Typically, these late March USDA Reports are very critical to farm operators and grain traders due to their impact on grain market prices in the Spring and early Summer months. During these months, many farm operators usually sell any remaining grain inventories from the previous growing season, as well as look for opportunities to forward price a portion of the anticipated crop for the current year. In a majority of years, corn and soybean prices usually reach their “peak-price” during the period from April until June, which is why these reports are so important. 
Highlights from the March 31st USDA Planting Intentions Report: 
CORN - The planting intentions report indicated that just over 95.3 million acres of corn are expected to be  planted in the U.S. in 2026, which is a decrease of 3.5 million acres from the 2025 corn acreage of  98.8 million acres. The 2026 U.S. corn acreage would still be above the 2024 corn acreage of 90.9 million acres and the 2023 acreage of 94.6 million acres. The 2025 U.S. corn acreage was the highest in nine decades. The current USDA corn acreage estimate was about 967,000 acres above the grain trade estimates. Based on the USDA report, 2026 planted corn acreage is likely to decrease in most of the major corn production States. Following is the estimated 2026 corn acreage and the expected decrease from 2025: Iowa at 13.1 million acres (-3%); Illinois at 10.9 million acres (-3%); Nebraska 
at 10.3 million acres (-4%); Minnesota at 8.6 million acres (-3%); South Dakota at 6.3 million acres  (-8%); North Dakota at 4.4 million acres (-6%); Missouri at 3.65 million acres (-4%); and Wisconsin at 3.7 million acres (-11%). Indiana at 5.4 million acres and Ohio at 3.4 million acres expected in 2026 were the same as the final 2025 corn acreage. Kansas at 7.1 million acres was the only major corn producing State with an expected increase in 2026 corn acres (+4%). 
SOYBEANS - Based on the estimates in the March 31st Planting Intentions Report, U.S. soybean acreage in 2026 is projected at 84.7 million acres, which represents an increase of 3.5 million acres from a year ago. The 2026 U.S. soybean acreage estimate compares to 81.2 million acres in 2025, 87.2 million acres in 2024, 83.6 million acres in 2023, 87.4 million, acres in 2022, and the record 90.2 million acres in 2017. The highest increase in the estimated 2026 soybean acreage compared to 2025 was in South Dakota with an expected increase of 500,000 acres, followed by Iowa with an increase of 450,000 acres, and Nebraska with an increase of 350,000 acres, along with increases of 300,000 acres in Kansas, 200,000 acres in Illinois, 170,000 acres in Wisconsin, 150,000 acres in Minnesota and North Dakota, and 50,000 acres in Indiana. Ohio and Missouri were the only major producing States to show a slight decrease in anticipated soybean acreage for 2026 (-100,000 acres each). 
WHEAT- The intended U.S. wheat acreage for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3 percent from 45.3 million acres in 2025, 46.1 million acres in 2024 and 49.6 million acres in 2023. Spring wheat acreage for 2026 was estimated at about 9.4 million acres, which is down 6 percent from nearly 10 million acres a year ago. 2026 Spring wheat acres are expected to decrease by 10 percent in Minnesota, 8 percent in North Dakota, and 4 percent in South Dakota, compared to 2025 acreage. 
Highlights from the March 31st USDA Grain Stocks Report: 
CORN - The total U.S. corn stocks on March 1, 2026, were listed at just over 9.02 billion bushels, which is an increase of 9.7 percent from a year earlier, and was slightly below the average grain trade estimate. The report indicated that farmers were holding 5.43 bushels of corn inventory in on-farm storage, which represents about 61 percent of the total corn stocks, and is up 21 percent from a year ago. One positive in the USDA grain stocks report was that the implied corn usage from December, 2025 through February, 2026 was 4.28 billion bushels, which was up about 8.4 percent compared to the same quarter a year ago. The improved corn usage numbers are a reflection of strong corn demand for ethanol production and solid corn export levels. The overall corn stocks level remains relatively high, which may limit potential for significant price rallies for the 2025 unpriced corn that is still in storage. 
SOYBEANS - Soybean stocks on March 1, 2026, were listed at just over 2.10 billion bushels, which is up 9.2 percent from a year ago, and was comparable to the pre-report estimates by grain trade analysts. Just over 1.2 billion bushels, or 58 percent of the total soybean stocks, were held in on-farm storage. The total U.S. soybean usage from December, 2025 through February, 2026 was estimated at 1.18 billion bushels, which was nearly the same as a year earlier. Soybean usage  numbers have been bolstered by improved soybean crush numbers; however, that has been offset by lower levels of soybean exports. There has been more optimism in the soybean export market in recent months, which has resulted in some improvement in the soybean prices in recent weeks. 
WHEAT- Total wheat stocks on March 1, 2026, were listed at about 1.3 billion bushels, which is up approximately 4.9 percent from March 1, 2025. This was the third year in a row that the level of wheat stocks have shown an increase on a year-over-year basis. The implied U.S. wheat usage in the past quarter was 4.28 million bushels, which was up about 10.4 percent from the same quarter a year ago. The stronger wheat usage numbers, together with the anticipated lower wheat acreage in 2026, has created some optimism for improved wheat prices in the coming months. 
Corn market prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) did not show much movement in either direction following the release of the USDA reports. Nearby CBOT corn futures closed at $4.58 per bushel on March 31, which compares to $4.57 per bushel in 2025, $4.42 per bushel in 2024 and $6.60 per bushel in 2023. New crop CBOT December corn futures on March 31 closed at $4.82 per bushel, compared to $4.42 per bushel in 2025, $4.76 per bushel in 2024 and $5.66 per bushel in 2023. Nearby CBOT soybean futures closed at $11.71 per bushel following the USDA report on March 31, compared to $10.15 per bushel in 2025, $11.91 per bushel in 2024 and $15.05 per bushel in 2023. New crop CBOT November futures closed at $11.57 per bushel on March 31, compared to $10.19 per bushel in 2025, $11.86 per bushel in 2024 and $13.20 per bushel in 2023. 
The March 31st USDA report was based on producer surveys of planting intentions in early March; however, there is potential for these planting expectations to be adjusted slightly when final crop planting numbers are released later this year. The war in Iran began at the end of February, and most of the impacts on fertilizer supplies and prices have taken place since the survey data was collected. These impacts may cause some changes in final crop acres in some portions of the U.S. In the 2025 Planting Intentions Report, USDA estimated total corn acreage at 95.3 million acres on March 31; however, the final 2025 corn acreage was 98.8 million acres, or an increase of 3.5 million acres. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]