Due to the good yield potential in some areas of the Upper Midwest, the number of corn and soybean producers that qualify for 2026 crop insurance indemnity payments may be limited. However, in other portions of the region that are dealing with severe or extreme drought, or have dealt with excessive rainfall and severe storms, crop insurance payments may be more prevalent. Due to likely higher Fall harvest prices for corn and soybeans, compared to the Spring base prices, any 2026 crop insurance indemnity payments will likely be solely based on reductions in crop yield, rather than on a combination of yield reduction and price decline. 
With Federal Crop Insurance, every year is different, and with the multiple options available to producers, there are many variable results from crop insurance coverage at harvest time. The 2026 crop year will be no different, with some producers choosing Yield Protection (YP) policies (yield only) versus Revenue Protection (RP) policies (yield and price), and producers having different levels of coverage on various crops. Producers also vary on having “optional units” versus “enterprise units” for their crop insurance coverage. In addition, some producers also have enhanced insurance coverage through private insurance companies, or through the “Supplemental Crop Option” (SCO) and “Enhanced Coverage Option” (ECO) policies that were available this year. 
In the Midwest, most corn and soybean producers in recent years have tended to secure some level of revenue (RP) crop insurance coverage, rather than standard yield-only (YP) policies. Farm operators like the flexibility of the RP policies that provide insurance coverage for reduced yields, as well as in instances where the harvest price drops below initial base price. In 2026, crop insurance loss calculations for corn and soybeans with RP policies will likely function similarly, due to the harvest price for corn and soybeans being higher than the 2026 crop insurance Spring base prices, which were finalized on March 1. 
The established crop insurance Spring base prices for 2026 YP and RP crop insurance policies are $4.62 per bushel for corn and $11.09 per bushel for soybeans. These base prices will determine potential payment eligibility and amount for 2026 YP policies for corn and soybeans. These base prices will also serve as the final price to calculate revenue guarantees for determining potential RP crop insurance indemnity payments for corn and soybeans, if the harvest price is lower than the base price. If the harvest price is higher than the base price, the harvest price will be used to calculate crop insurance payment potential for RP policies with harvest price protection. 
The final harvest price for RP crop insurance policies is based on the average Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) price for December corn futures and CBOT November soybean futures during the month of October, with prices finalized on November 1, 2026. If the final CBOT price for December corn futures or November soybean futures is higher than the established base prices, the harvest price would then be used to determine the insurance guarantees for RP policies with harvest price protection, as opposed to the base price. The harvest price is also used to calculate the value of the actual harvested bushels for all RP insurance policies. As of September 25, the crop insurance harvest price estimates were near $5.26 per bushel for corn and $13.20 per bushel for soybeans. 
The level of RP insurance coverage can result in some producers receiving crop insurance indemnity payments, while other producers receive no payments, even though both producers had the same adjusted APH yield and the same final yield. For example, at an adjusted APH corn yield of 200 bushels per acre, and an adjusted price guarantee of 5.26 per bushel, a producer with 85% RP coverage would have a yield guarantee of 170 bushel per acre, and a revenue guarantee of $894 per acre, while a producer with 75% coverage would have a yield guarantee of 150 bushels per acre, and a guarantee of $789 per acre. If the actual 2026 yield is 160 bushels per acre, with a $5.26 per bushel harvest price, the producer with 85% coverage would receive a gross indemnity payment near $53 per acre, while the producer with 75% coverage would not receive an indemnity payment. 
It appears likely that the corn harvest price will exceed the Spring base price of $4.62 per bushel and that the soybean harvest price will exceed the Spring price of $11.09 per bushel. This means that the final harvest price for both corn and soybeans will likely serve as the price guarantee for RP insurance policies that have harvest price protection. This would also result in payment calculations for RP policies functioning very similarly to YP calculations. The only exception being that RP policies with harvest price protection will use the higher corn and soybean harvest price for calculations, rather than the Spring base price that is used for YP policies. If producers have a RPE policy with “harvest price exclusion”, the base revenue is calculated using the Spring price, and the final revenue is calculated using the harvest price. Use of an RPE policy will likely not work very well in 2026 with the current price scenario for corn and soybeans. 
In order to reduce premium costs, a large number of Midwest corn and soybean producers utilize “enterprise units” for their crop insurance coverage, which combines all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit. By comparison, “optional units” allow producers to insure crops separately in each township section. Enterprise units work quite well with RP policies to protect against price drops during the growing season, and when a producer has most of their land in the same general area. Optional units are usually preferable when a producer has a variety of land that is spread across a wide area in a county, or when producers have individual farms that are highly susceptible to natural disasters, such as flooding, drought, etc. 
For example …… assume that producers A and B both have 5 separate farms in the same county with an APH corn yield of 200 bushels per acre, and that the overall average 2026 corn yield on all farms was 180 bushels per acre. However, three of the farms were 200 bushels per acre each, and the other two farms were 150 bushels per acre each. Also assume a final corn harvest price of $5.26 per bushel. Producer A has an 85% RP policy with optional units and producer B has an 85% RP policy with enterprise units. Producer A, with the optional units, would receive no insurance payment on the three farms with the higher yield; however, that farmer would receive a gross indemnity payment of $105 per acre on the two farms with the lower yield. Producer B with the enterprise units would receive no insurance payments on any farms, based on the average yield for all farms. 
Many farmers carried expanded Supplemental Crop Option (SCO) and Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO crop insurance coverage in 2026. SCO and ECO crop insurance policies utilize the same Spring price and harvest price as individual crop insurance policies; however, SCO and ECO indemnity payments are based on the final 2026 county average yields compared to the established average county yields. As a result, it could be possible for a producer not to qualify for a crop insurance indemnity payment on an individual policy, but still qualify for a SCO or ECO payment, or vice versa to qualify for an individual insurance payment, but not qualify for a SCO or ECO payment. Any ECO or ECO indemnity payments will not be paid until June, 2027. 
Producers that have crop revenue losses in 2026, which could result in potential crop insurance indemnity payments, should properly document the yield losses, regardless of their type or level of insurance coverage. A reputable crop insurance agent is the best source of information to make estimates for potential 2026 crop insurance indemnity payments, and to find out about documentation requirements for crop insurance losses. Farm operators that collect very large indemnity payments should be aware that they may be subject to an audit by the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA), which may require more detailed documentation of losses. It is important for producers who are facing crop losses in 2026 to understand their crop insurance coverage and the calculations used to determine crop insurance indemnity payments. 
Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2026 Crop Insurance Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected]. The University of Illinois FarmDoc web site also contains some good crop insurance information and spreadsheets to estimate crop insurance payments. The FarmDoc web site is located at: https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/crop-insurance. 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

USDA will announce the final 2025 market year average (MYA) prices for corn and soybeans on September 30, 2026. These are the MYA prices that will be used to calculate the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program payments for the 2025 crop year. The 2025 market year for corn and soybeans ran from September 1, 2025 through August 31, 2026, with the MYA price finalized on September 30. The monthly average prices are “weighted”, based on the percentage of bushels sold each month, in order to arrive at a final MYA price for the marketing year. Based on the USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report that was released on September 11, the current 2025 MYA price estimate for corn is $4.15 per bushel, which has been consistent for several months. The September MYA price estimate for soybeans is $10.50 per bushel, which was increased by $.10 per bushel in the September WASDE Report. 

The final MYA prices for corn and soybeans usually do not vary significantly from the September WASDE Report; however, even a change of a few cents per bushel can significantly impact the final farm program payment. For example, if the final MYA corn price increases by $.02 per bushel from the current $4.15 per bushel to $4.17 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would decrease by approximately $2.72 per corn base acre on a farm that has a farm-level PLC yield of 160 bushels per acre. If the farm had 1,000 corn base acres, that would be a total reduction of $2,720 from the September WASDE Report estimates. Of course, a decrease in the final MYA price to $4.13 per bushel would have a similar positive impact on the final PLC payment. The increase in the estimated soybean MYA price of $.10 per bushel in the September 11th WASDE Report reduced the PLC payment estimate by $4.25 per soybean base acre from the previous estimate. On a farm with a 50 bushel per acre PLC yield, the PLC payment reduction would be a total of $4,250 of a farm with 1,000 soybean base acres.  

The changes in the MYA prices have a similar impact of final ARC-CO payments. If the final MYA corn price increases by $.02 per bushel to $4.17 per bushel, it will reduce the estimated ARC-CO payment by $3 to $4 per corn base acre in any county that is scheduled to receive ARC-CO payments rather than PLC payments. The increase of $.10 per bushel in the estimated soybean MYA price would reduce the estimated ARC-CO payment by $4 to $5 per base acre in many counties. For counties scheduled to receive the maximum corn or soybean ARC-CO payment in 2025, any potential changes in the final MYA price may not impact the final ARC-CO payments. The impact on ARC-CO payments will vary depending on the final 2025 county average yield compared to the 2025 benchmark yield for a given county. 

For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of the calculated 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops. This provision means that it is likely that all eligible base acres of corn, soybean, wheat, and many other crops are likely to receive either a PLC or ARC-CO payment for the 2025 crop year. The 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for all farm program crops will be paid in October, 2026. These PLC and ARC-CO payments will be automatically calculated by Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices and will be deposited into appropriate accounts. The provision allowing the higher of PLC or ARC-CO payments will only be in effect for the 2025 crop year. 

All farm program payments are paid on 85 percent of crop base acres, so any calculated payments per acre need to be factored by .85 to arrive at an estimated payment per base acre. All farm program payments are paid on crop base acres, and not on 2025 planted acres. It should be pointed out that there will be a 5.7 percent Federal sequestration reduction applied to all farm program payments, so the gross payment amount on a farm unit needs to be multiplied by (.943) to arrive at the net farm program payment. County Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices provide information on farm-level PLC program yields and other farm program details; however, Information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information is available on the USDA ARC-PLC web site at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. 

Following is the current update on likely 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for Corn and Soybeans:
Corn --- All eligible corn producers will likely receive a significant 2025 farm program payment. Based on the September WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA corn price is $4.15 per bushel. The estimated MYA price is $.27 per bushel below the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.42 per bushel, and is $.88 per bushel below the 2025 benchmark price of $5.03 per bushel for ARC-CO payments. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be about $35 to $40 per corn base acre on farms with a PLC program yield of 150-170 per acre, $30-$35 per base acre with a PLC yield of 130-150 bushels per acre, and $25-$30 per base acre with a PLC yield of 110 to 130 bushels per acre. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final county average corn yield that is about 8-10 percent above the 2025 benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at a final county yield that is about 4 percent or less above the county benchmark yield. The maximum corn ARC-CO payment would occur at a final average yield that is about 5-6 percent lower than the county benchmark yield. The likelihood of receiving either a PLC or an ARC-CO payments for corn will be highly variable from county-to-county across the Midwest, due to the wide variation in 2025 final county average corn yields.
Soybeans --- Similar to corn, it is likely that eligible soybean producers will receive a 2025 farm program payment.; however, it is likely to be considerably lower than the corn payment in most counties. Based on the September WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is estimated at $10.50 per bushel. The estimated MYA price would be $.21 per bushel below the 2025 PLC soybean reference price of $10.71 per bushel, and would be $1.67 per bushel lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $12.17 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $10.50 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $9 to $11 per soybean base acre in counties with a 50-60 bu. per acre PLC yield, $7 to $9 per base acre in counties with a 40 to 50 bu. per acre PLC yield, and $5 to $7 per base acre in counties with a 30 to 40 bu. per acre PLC yield. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 4 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 2 percent above the county benchmark yield. The maximum soybean ARC-CO payment would occur at a final average yield that is about 9 percent lower than the county benchmark yield. 
PLC and ARC-CO Payment Summary --- As previously mentioned, the 12-month 2025 marketing year for corn and soybeans ended August 31, 2026, with the MYA prices to be finalized on September 30, 2026. Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared a set of tables listing the likely PLC or ARC-CO payment for corn and soybeans in every county in Minnesota. To receive copy of these tables, or for other specific questions on 2025 farm program payments, contact Kent Thiesse at: [email protected]

USDA Announces 2026 and 2027 Farm Program Sign-Up Dates 
USDA has announced the sign-up dates for both the 2026 and 2027 farm programs at County FSA offices. The farm program sign-up dates for the 2026 crop year began on September 16 and will continue until December 11. Farm program sign-up for the 2027 crop year will begin on November 2, 2026 and will continue until March 15, 2027, which coincides with the 2027 crop insurance deadline for corn, soybeans, and other Spring crops. It is important to note that all producers will need to sign-up for the 2026 farm program, in order to be eligible for potential 2026 farm program payments, which would likely be paid in October, 2027. The 30 million crop base acres that were added earlier this year will be included for potential 2026 and 2027 farm program payments.

For both the 2026 and 2027 farm programs, farmers will again need to choose between price-only PLC program, and the ARC-CO program, which is based on the market-year average (MYA) price and county average yields. The ARC-IC program provides a third farm program choice, which is based on the same MYA price and farm-level yields; however, ARC-IC also has other provisions that are different from PLC and ARC-CO. Final 2026 county average yields and farm-level yields will likely impact final 2026 farm program choices in many instances More information on the 2026 and 2027 farm program choices will be available in the coming weeks.
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For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]  

The September 11 USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Report lowered the projected 2026 U.S. average yield for corn from the August estimate; however, USDA slightly increased the 2026 soybean yield projection. USDA also indicated a slight increase the expected 2026 harvested acreage for both corn and soybeans in the September report from earlier reports. The end result was a decrease of just over 200 million bushels from the August report in the estimated overall 2026 U.S. corn production level as opposed to a slight increase in the total 2026 soybean production total. The latest NASS yield estimates were based on U.S. crop conditions as of September 1st; and were the first 2026 USDA yield estimates that included actual field data. Some grain marketing analysts feel that the USDA corn yield and production estimates may still be a bit high, given the drought conditions in a significant portion of the Western Corn Belt that will likely reduce the final 2026 corn yields.
The September 11 USDA Report projects the 2026 U.S. average corn yield at the record level of 178.5 bushels per acre, which was decreased from 180.7 bushels per acre in the August report. The projected 2026 national corn yield compares to last year’s record U.S. yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025, 179. 3 bushels per acre in 2024, 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, and 177 bushels per acre in 2021. A year ago, USDA estimated the average corn yield at 186.7 bushels per acre in the September report, which was very close to the final average corn yield of 186.5 bushels er acre. In the recent report, USDA estimated the 2026 harvested corn acreage in the U.S. at 88.5 million acres, which included estimates from crop acreage certification data filed by producers through the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. This compares to 91.3 million acres in 2025 and 83 million harvested acres in 2024. USDA is now estimating total U.S. corn production for 2026 at 15.8 billion bushels, which would be a 7.2 percent decrease from the 2025 record production level of just over 17 billion bushels.
The September corn yield estimates were reduced from the August USDA yield estimates in all major corn producing States except Iowa and Missouri. USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2026 average corn yield at 195 bushels per acre, which is a decrease of 2 bushels per acre from the August estimate. The projected 2026 corn yield compares to the record average yield of 201 bushels per acre in 2025, 174 bushels per acre in 2024, 185 bushels per acre, in 2023, and 195 bushels per acre in 2022. The latest NASS report increased Iowa’s projected 2026 average corn yield by 3 bushels per acre to 219 bushels per acre, which would l be a record statewide average yield. This compares to final average yields of 210 bushels per acre in 2025, 211 bushels per acre in 2024, 201 bushels per acre in 2023, and 200 bushels per acre in 2022.
USDA is projecting Illinois to have a 2026 corn yield of 209 bushels per acre, compared to 214 bushels per acre in 2025; Indiana at 200 bushels per acre, compared to 204 bushels per acre in 2025; Nebraska at 177 bushels per acre, compared to 194 bushels per acre in 2025; and South Dakota at 145 bushels per acre, compared to 171 bushels per acre in 2025. The 2025 corn yield estimates in some other States include, North Dakota at 130 bushels per acre, compared to 158 bushels per acre in 2025; Wisconsin at 180 bushels per acre, compared to 188 bushels per acre in 2025; and Ohio at 194 bushels per acre, compared to 185 bushels per acre in 2025.
The USDA Report on September 11 estimated total 2026 U.S. soybean production at just over 4.53 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 6.4 percent from the 2025 soybean production of just under 4.26 billion bushels. USDA projected the 2026 U.S. average soybean yield at 52.8 bushels per acre, which was increased by 0.1 bushels per acre from the August report. The 2026 NASS soybean yield estimate was just under the record U.S. soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025,and compares to yields of 50.7 bushels per acre in 2024, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022, and 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021. The USDA 2025 soybean yield projection was very close to the average yield estimates by grain trading analysts.
USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2026 average soybean yield at 49 bushels per acre, which was increased by one bushel from the August estimate. The 2026 yield projection compares to the record-tying yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2025, and other recent statewide yields of 45 bushels per acre in 2024, 48 bushels per acre in 2023, 50 bushels per acre in 2022, and 47 bushels per acre in 2021. The Iowa’s estimated 2026 soybean yield is at the record level of 64 bushels per acre, which is up by 2 bushels per acre from the August estimate. The 2026 estimated yield compares to last year’s record yield of 63.5 bushels per acre, as well as 60 bushels per acre in 2024, 58 bushels per acre in 2023, 58.5 bushels per acre in 2022, and 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
The projected 2026 yields in major soybean producing eastern Corn Belt States include Illinois at 66 bushels per acre, compared to 62.5 bushels per acre in 2025; Indiana at 63 bushels per acre, compared to 59,5 bushels per acre in 2025; and Ohio at 59 bushels per acre, compared to 53 bushels per acre in 2025. Most soybean yields in the Western Corn Belt States are expected to decrease from 2025 yield levels. Soybean yield estimates for 2026 include Nebraska at 60 bushels per acre, compared to 65.5 bushels per acre in 2025; South Dakota at 42 bushels per acre, compared to 47 bushels per acre in 2025; North Dakota at 30 bushels per acre, compared to 34.5 bushels per acre in 2025, and Wisconsin at 55 bushels per acre, compared to 56 bushels per acre in 2025.
 
SEPTEMBER 11 WASDE REPORT
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was also released on September 11, which included the projected adjustments in the 2026 U.S. corn yield and production levels that were referenced in the USDA Crop Production Report. The WASDE report projects a reduction in the corn usage levels during 2026-27 marketing year, as compared to the 2025-26 corn usage levels. Corn use for livestock feed is expected to decrease by 405 million bushels in 2026-27; however, corn use for ethanol is projected to increase by 50 million bushels. U.S. corn export levels for 2026-27 are estimated at 3.275 billion bushels, which is down from the estimate of 3.425 billion bushels for 2025-26. Corn export levels have been fairly strong in recent months.
The U.S. corn ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected at 1.567 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of 18.5 percent or 355 million bushels percent from the estimated 2025-26 carryover level. The latest 2026-27 corn ending stocks projection compares to other final corn carryover levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22.
The reduced level of the projected 2026-27 corn carryover has created some optimism for corn price prospects for the 2026-27 marketing year, which extends from September 1, 2026, through August 31, 2027. USDA is estimating the average on-farm corn price for the 2026-27 marketing year at $4.80 per bushel, which is increase by $.30 per bushel from the August report. The 2025-26 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2026, is estimated at $4.15 per bushel. This compares to previous final average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22.
The recent WASDE report projected 2026-27 soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels, which was a decrease of 10 million bushels from the August estimate. The 2026-27 estimated soybean ending stocks are lower than the final ending stocks of 325 million bushels in both 2025-26 and 2024-25. Other recent soybean ending stocks levels include 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels for 2022-23 and 274 million bushels in 2021-22. Soybean exports for 2026-27 are projected at 1.685 billion bushels, which would be an increase from the estimated 1.52 billion bushels for 2025-26, but would still trail 1.89 billion bushels of exports in 2024-25. Recent soybean sales to China have improved soybean export prospects for the coming year.
USDA is projecting the average on-farm soybean price for the 2026-27 marketing year at $12.00 per bushel, which is up $.60 per bushel from the August price estimate. The 2025-26 estimated final national average soybean price is $10.50 per bushel, which compares to national average prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

The late Summer of 2026 has seen some rather dramatic increases in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grain futures prices, as well as with cash market prices at the local level. This increase in the cash corn and soybean prices has provided an unexpected surprise to farmers that still had some of their 2025 in storage to sell prior to the 2026 harvest, as cash prices are typically at their lowest levels from July until late Fall. A majority of farm operators had already sold all or most of their 2025 corn and soybeans in storage prior to the August rally in the grain markets. All farmers do have the opportunity to take advantage of the higher grain prices to “lock-in” a price on a portion of their anticipated 2026 corn and soybean production; however, reduced crop production may limit these marketing opportunities in some areas.
 
December corn futures on the CBOT increased from $4.64 per bushel on July 31, 2026 to $5.38 per bushel on August 31, 2026, which is about a 16 percent increase during the month of August. This is the largest percentage increase in the CBOT December corn futures price ever recorded since 1980 from the end of July until the end of August. During that 46-year period, the December corn futures have increased by 5 percent or more in ten years during the month of August, with 2022 being the most recent year prior to 2026. The December futures price has increased by 10 percent or more in only three years, prior to 2026, with those years being 2011, 2003, and 1983, all of which were associated with reduced corn production. By contrast, the December corn futures price has declined by 5 percent or more 5 times in the past ten years (2016-2025) prior to 2026.  
 
The CBOT December corn futures price of $5.38 per bushel on August 31, 2026 was comparable to the late August CBOT prices of $5.30 per bushel in 2022 and $5.34 per bushel in 2021. However, the current corn price far exceeds the last August CBOT corn prices of $4.20 per bushel in 2025, $4.01 per bushel in 2024, $4.80 per bushel in 2023, and $3.57 per bushel in 2020. The CBOT December corn futures price started the year near $4.50 per bushels, reaching a high near $5.00 per bushel in mid-May, which was the highest price in 2026 prior to the August rally in the corn market. The corn futures price was as low as $4.36 per bushel as recently as June 30.
 
The increase in the December corn futures price is large being driven by concerns over expected 2026 U.S. corn production levels. The USDA crop production report lowered the projected 2026 U.S. average corn yield from 183 bushels per acre in July to 180.7 bushels per acre in August. Some private analysts have estimated the final 2026 U.S. corn yield in the 174 to 178 bushel per acre range. The next USDA crop report, which will be released on September 11, will include data based on actual field samples. There will be considerable attention paid to this report, regarding further USDA reductions in 2026 U.S. corn yield and production estimates.
 
Several portions of eastern Corn Belt have been impacted by excessive rainfall at certain times during the 2026 growing season, along with the development of corn and soybean fungal diseases later in the growing season. The corn and soybean crop in large areas of Nebraska, North and South Dakota, along with western Minnesota and Iowa have been impacted by intensifying drought conditions in late July and August, which will likely reduce the yield potential in many areas. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released on September 3, showed that nearly 80 percent of Minnesota was in moderate drought, with over half of the State in severe drought. The drought situation was similar in North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, as well in Western Iowa.
 
The CBOT November soybean futures price has also increased considerably in recent months. The 2026 November futures price has risen by 13.5 percent in the past three months, rising from a price of $11.34 per bushel in mid-June to $12.88 per bushel at the end of August. The November futures price started the year near $10.65 per bushel, reaching a high near $11.90 per bushel in late May, prior to the significant price increase that has occurred in late July and August. In addition to increasing drought in portions of the U.S. and the potential for reduced  production in 2026, the recent rise in soybean prices is also being driven improving demand for soybeans, both in the domestic crush markets and in export markets to China and other countries.
 
 
Basis  Levels  Affect Local Grain  Prices
The basis level at a given location can have a big impact on the “net price” that a farmer receives for their corn or soybeans. On any given day, farm operators and others can get grain price quotes from the CME Group, also known as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), in “real-time” on their computer or I-phone. Almost as quickly, they can get current and future corn and soybean market price quotes from local grain elevators, ethanol plants, and processing plants. The difference between the local grain price and the CBOT price is known as “basis”.
 
More specifically, “basis” is the difference between the local grain price quote on a specific date and the CBOT price for the corresponding futures contract month. Local harvest price quotes for corn and soybeans would correspond to the December CBOT corn futures price and the November CBOT soybean futures price. By comparison, storing the corn or soybeans after harvest and selling the grain via a forward contract in June or early July the following Summer would have the basis level determined by the July CBOT corn or soybean futures.
 
The current 2026 basis levels for corn and soybeans in Southern Minnesota have been quite wide in recent months.  Recent 2026 harvest basis levels for corn in much of the Upper Midwest ranged from about $40 to $.60 per bushel under the CBOT December corn futures price, with basis levels in much of North & South Dakota and Northwest Minnesota exceeding $.70 per bushel. Soybean basis levels ranged from about $.40 to $.70 per bushel under the CBOT price in much of Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska. Fall harvest basis levels are $.75 per higher at many locations in the balance of South Dakota and Nebraska, the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and all of North Dakota. Basis levels are slightly tighter near corn and soybean processing plants in some areas, as well as near primary shipping locations on the Mississippi River.
 
There are many grain marketing tools available for farm operators to utilize in addition to cash sales, including a variety of hedging, options, and basis contracts. Generally, a hedging or options contract locks in the CBOT futures price, but not the cash price, meaning that the farmer still has basis risk. For example, a “hedge-to-arrive” contract locks in a CBOT futures price but does not finalize the basis until the futures contract is cleared and the grain is actually delivered and sold at the local level. The hope is that the basis level will narrow or improve by the time that the grain is delivered to market and a final cash price is determined. By comparison, a “basis contract” locks in the basis level, but keeps the final price open depending on changes in the corresponding CBOT futures price at the time of delivery, or when setting the final price.
 
The wider “harvest-time” basis levels for corn and soybeans during harvest season this year is  something to factor into post-harvest grain marketing decisions in the next few months. If corn and soybean futures prices continue to rally in the coming weeks and basis levels remain quite wide, it will likely encourage the use of more “hedge-to-arrive” contracts for the summer months of 2027. This will allow producers to reduce their “price risk” on the stored grain, while still being able to take advantage of potential basis improvement that may occur between the post-harvest months and the Summer of 2027. On the other hand, if localized basis levels tighten for a short-term period of time after harvest due to disappointing 2026 crop yields and strong local demand, it may be a time to sell the grain in the cash market or to use a “basis contract” to lock-in the basis level, and still have some upside potential in the corn or soybean market into next Spring.
 
Most grain marketing strategies, including storing unpriced grain in a bin on the farm, involve some level of price and/or basis risk. Understanding the dynamics of basis in corn and soybean market prices is a key element in analyzing the various types of grain marketing contracts that are available to farm operators. Many grain marketing advisors do a very good job of explaining the dynamics of basis and how that interacts with grain marketing strategies. Iowa State University has some good information available on understanding basis and explaining various grain marketing strategies. This information is available on the “Ag Decision Maker” website at: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/cdmarkets.html.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

As farmers prepare for the 2026 harvest season, the use of Marketing Assistance Loans (MAL’s) may take on more significance in setting up post-harvest grain marketing and cash flow plans for corn and soybeans. Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) commodity loans on harvested corn, soybeans and wheat were regularly used by farm operators in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, as well as from 2015 to 2019, as a grain marketing tool. The use of CCC commodity loans dropped off considerably from 2008-2014 and again from 2020-2023, when grain prices reached their highest levels in many years.  This year’s uncertainty in the current corn and soybean markets could make the use of MAL’s a viable option to allow more time for marketing decisions.
 
The Marketing Assistance Loans (MAL’s) are originated through county Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices after the grain has been harvested and are 9-month loans from the time of origination. A marketing assistance loan can be established both on farm stored grain and on grain in commercial storage with a warehouse receipt. Producers receive the value of the loan at the time the MAL loan is established. The loan can be repaid at any time during the 9-month loan period, by repaying the amount of the loan principal plus the accrued interest.
 
The MAL loan interest rate is adjusted monthly and is set up at one percent above the CCC borrowing rate from the U.S. Treasury. The interest rate on MAL loans is fixed for the entire term of the 9-month MAL, except for a potential CCC interest rate adjustment on January 1. The current interest rate on marketing assistance loans (as of 8-01-26) is 4.875 percent, which compares to an interest rate of 7.5 to 9 percent for short-term financing at many commercial ag lending institutions. Producers only pay interest for the time that the MAL is in place. (For example, a $500,000 MAL corn loan at 4.875 percent interest for 180 days = $12,187 interest payment for 6 months, which compares to $20,000 on a similar loan at 8 percent interest for 180 days).
 
Farm operators have the flexibility to place grain under a MAL at a local FSA office any time after the grain has been harvested, so they could take out the MAL in November or December, 2026, or wait until after January 1, 2027. Producers also have the flexibility to treat the commodity loan as either “income” or as a “loan” when the loan proceeds are received. Either of these decisions can have income tax implications, depending on how and when the loan proceeds are received. It is best to consult with a tax advisor before determining the timing and the preferred method of receiving the loan proceeds.
 
If commodity prices drop to levels that are lower than county loan rates, eligible producers would potentially be eligible to release the grain that is under a marketing assistance loan at a rate that is lower than the county loan rate. FSA issues a “posted county price” (PCP) for commodities that are eligible for MAL’s, which are updated and posted daily at local FSA offices, or available on county FSA websites. If the PCP is lower than the county loan rate, the producer could realize a “marketing loan gain” (MLG), if the grain is released at that lower PCP. (Example --- a producer places corn under a MAL at $2.35 per bushel, a few months later the PCP is $2.10 per bushel, resulting in the potential of a marketing loan gain of $.25 per bushel on the day the corn loan is released.) If the PCP drops below the county MAL loan rate, producers also have the option to collect a loan deficiency payment (LDP) on a commodity, in lieu of putting the grain under a commodity loan. The LDP calculation is similar to the calculation for marketing loan gains. A LDP can only be utilized once on the same bushels of grain. There has not been significant LDP eligibility for corn and soybeans since the early 2000’s and we do not anticipate any LDP opportunities for the 2026 corn and soybean crop.
 
Producers must be eligible for farm program benefits and must have submitted an acreage report at the FSA office for 2026 to be eligible for MAL’s for this year’s crop production. Producers must maintain “beneficial interest” in the grain while it is under a MAL. Beneficial interest means that the producer maintains control and title of the commodity while it is under a commodity loan. Farmers should contact their local FSA office to release any grain that is under a marketing assistance loan before it is delivered to market (“call before you haul”).
 
The Reconciliation Bill by Congress in 2025 increased all national loan rates by 10 percent for the 2026 crop year.  Following are the 2026 MAL national loan rates for common crops in the Upper Midwest:

• Corn --------   $2.42 per bushel.
• Soybeans ---  $6.82 per bushel 
• Wheat ------- $3.72 per bushel 
• Barley ------- $2.75 per bushel   
• Oats ---------  $2.20 per bushel 
• Grain Sorghum --- $2.42 per bushel 

 
The county loan rates are then adjusted higher or lower than national rates, based on local commodity price differentials compared to national price levels. Following is the range of 2026 County corn and soybean loan rates for MAL’s for States in the Upper Midwest States:

• Minnesota --------  Corn = $2.24 to $2.36/bu.;  Soybeans = $6.47 to $6.78/bu.
• Iowa ---------------  Corn = $2.30 to $2.49/bu.;  Soybeans = $6.70 to $6.94/bu.
• Nebraska ----------  Corn = $2.27 to $2.50/bu.;  Soybeans = $6.43 to $6.79/bu.
• South Dakota -----  Corn = $2.27 to $2.43/bu.;  Soybeans = $6.32 to $6.75/bu.
• North Dakota -----  Corn = $2.22 to $2.43/bu.;  Soybeans = $6.32 to $6.62/bu.
• Wisconsin ---------  Corn = $2.27 to $2.44/bu.;  Soybeans = $6.70 to $6.89/bu.

County loan rates for all crops in every U.S. County are available on the following FSA website: www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/price-support/commodity-loan-rates
 
Following are some reasons that farm operators may want to consider utilizing marketing assistance loans (MAL’s) as part of their grain marketing and cash flow strategies:

• Provides short-term credit at relatively low and stable interest rates.
• Loan funds can be used to pay post-harvest expenses and land rental payments for the current year or for prepaid crop inputs (seed, fertilizer, etc.) for the following crop year.
• Loan funds can also provide the necessary funds to make year-end or January principal and interest payments on term loans and real estate loans.
• Allows a producer to receive partial compensation for corn and soybeans during or following the Fall harvest season, when commodity prices are traditionally lower than average.
• Allows a producer the flexibility to market the grain in future months after the grain has been placed under a MAL, including forward pricing the grain for future delivery (remember that the commodity loan must be satisfied at the FSA office before the grain is delivered.)
• Commodity loans can also be used by livestock producers that plan to feed the corn or other grain, which is followed by just releasing the grain that is under loan as it is fed to livestock.
• If commodity prices decline below the county CCC loan rates, the grain that is under loan can be released at the lower price, or producers can collect a loan deficiency payment (LDP).

 
In Minnesota, FSA offices file a Central Notification System (CNS) form with the Minnesota Secretary of State Office on all grain used as security for a marketing assistance loan. These forms are similar to the CNS forms that are filed by ag lenders for farm operating loans to guarantee the transfer of funds when grain or livestock is sold to cover outstanding loan balances.
 
For further information on USDA marketing assistance loans (MAL’s) and county loan rates for various commodities, farm operators should contact their local FSA office, or go to the following website:
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/loans/marketing-assistance-loans-mal
 
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of the calculated 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops. This provision means that it is likely that all eligible base acres of corn, soybean, wheat, and many other crops are likely to receive either a PLC or ARC-CO payment for the 2025 crop year. The 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for all farm program crops will be paid in October, 2026. These PLC and ARC-CO payments will be automatically calculated by Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices and will be deposited into appropriate accounts. The provision allowing the higher of PLC or ARC-CO payments will only be in effect for the 2025 crop year. Farmers will again need to choose between PLC and ARC-CO for the 2026 crop year. The farm program sign-up dates for the 2026 crop year have not been announced; however, sign-up is likely to begin early this Fall at County FSA offices.
 
2025 PLC payments will be based on the PLC farm program yield on a given farm unit times the PLC payment rate per bushel, when the final MYA price is lower than the reference price. If the final MYA price is higher than the reference price, there is no PLC payment. Potential ARC-CO payments are based on the final county revenue (MYA price times the final 2025 county average yield), compared to the 2025 benchmark (BM) revenue (BM price times the county BM yield). The final 2025 county RMA yields were released in June and will be used to determine potential 2025 ARC-CO payments. FSA may make slight adjustments to County RMA yields. If the 2025 ARC-CO payment is higher than the PLC payment for an eligible producer, they would receive the ARC-CO payment instead of the minimum PLC payment for a crop.
 
All farm program payments are paid on 85 percent of crop base acres, so any calculated payments per acre need to be factored by .85 to arrive at an estimated payment per base acre. All farm program payments are paid on crop base acres, and not on 2025 planted acres. It should be pointed out that there will be a 5.7 percent Federal sequestration reduction applied to all farm program payments, so the gross payment amount on a farm unit needs to be multiplied by (.943) to arrive at the net farm program payment. County Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices provide information on farm-level PLC program yields and other farm program details; however, FSA offices do not provide estimates on farm program payments. Information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information is available on the USDA ARC-PLC web site at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. The University of Illinois has an excellent spreadsheet to calculate estimated 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payment for various crops in specific counties. The website is at:  https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/.
 
Following is the current update on likely 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for Corn and Soybeans:
 
Corn
The good news is that all eligible corn producers will likely receive a significant 2025 farm program payment. Based on the August WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA corn price is $4.15 per bushel. The estimated MYA price is $.27 per bushel below the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.42 per bushel, and is $.88 per bushel below the 2025 benchmark price of $5.03 per bushel for ARC-CO payments. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be about $35 to $40 per corn base acre on farms with a PLC program yield of 150-170 per acre, $30-$35 per base acre with a PLC yield of 130-150 bushels per acre, and $25-$30 per base acre with a PLC yield of 110 to 130 bushels per acre. If the final MYA price increases by $.05 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would drop by about $5 to $7 per base acre; however, if the final MYA price declines by $.05 per bushel, the PLC estimate would increase by a similar amount. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final county average corn yield that is about 8-10 percent above the 2025 benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 104 percent or less of the county benchmark yield. The likelihood of receiving a PLC or an ARC-CO payments is highly variable from county-to-county across the Midwest, due to the wide variation in 2025 final county average corn yields.
 
Soybeans
 Similar to corn, it is likely eligible soybean producers will receive a 2025 farm program payment.; however, it will likely be considerably lower than the corn payment in most counties. Based on the August WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is estimated at $10.40 per bushel. The estimated MYA price would be $.31 per bushel below the 2025 PLC soybean reference price of $10.71 per bushel, and would be $1.77 per bushel lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $12.17 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $10.40 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $10 to $15 per soybean base acre in most counties in the Upper Midwest, with a slightly lower payment rate in the northern portions of the region. If the final MYA price increases by $.10 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would decline by about $4 to $5 per base acre. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 102 percent or less, compared to the county benchmark yield.
PLC and ARC-CO Payment Summary
 
The 2025 marketing year for corn and soybeans began on September 1, 2025 and continues through August 31, 2026, with the MYA price finalized on September 30, 2026, Given the fact that there is only a short time remaining in the 2025 marketing year, the final MYA prices for corn and soybeans are not likely to vary significantly from current estimates of $4.15 per bushel for corn and $10.40 per bushel for soybeans. Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared a set of tables listing the likely PLC or ARC-CO payment for corn and soybeans in every county in Minnesota. To receive a copy of these tables, or for other specific questions on 2025 farm program payments, contact Kent Thiesse at: [email protected]
 
 
AUGUST 12  WASDE  REPORT
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was released on August 12. This report included the 2026 updated estimated U.S. corn production of 16.013 billion bushels, based on harvested corn acreage of 88.6 million acres and an estimated U.S corn average yield of 180.7 bushels per acre. The average corn yield was lowered from an estimate of 183 bushels per acre in the July WASDE Report, and compares to a final U.S. average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025. The 2026-27 corn ending stocks are now projected at just over 1.653 billion bushels, which was reduced by 137 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at just over 1.94 billion bushels, which compares to other recent carryout levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, and 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24.
 
USDA is projecting the market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2026-27 marketing year at $4.50 per bushel, which is an increase of $.10 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans extends from September 1, 2026, through August 31, 2027. The 2025-26 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2026, is now estimated at $4.15 per bushel, which was unchanged from the July estimate. These estimates compare to recent national MYA prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21.
 
The recent WASDE report projected the 2026 U.S. soybean production level at just over 4.519 billion bushels, based on 85.8 million harvested acres and a U.S. soybean yield of 52.7 bushels per acre. The average soybean was reduced from 153 bushels per acre in the July WASDE Report, which was also the final soybean yield in 2025. The 2026-27 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 320 million bushels, which was an increase of 10 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2025-26 ending stocks are projected at 325 million bushels, which was the same as the 2024-25 ending stocks. USDA is projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2026-27 marketing year at $11.40 per bushel and at $10.40 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year. This compares to recent national average prices of $10.00 per bushel for the 2024-25 marketing year, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, and $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

Candidate forums have been part of Farmfest in every even numbered year since 1990, and these forums usually offer a variety of political views and insights. In 2026, Farmfest hosted candidate forums for the open races for Minnesota Governor and U.S. Senate, as well as Congressional candidate forums. The candidate forums included all of the major candidates in Minnesota running for the various elected offices, with discussions on various issues affecting farm families and rural communities in Minnesota. Farmfest also featured a keynote address by U.S. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, as well as a special Ag Outlook Forum that included several top-notch economists and marketing analysts, who provided insights on many key farm economic topics.
Following are some of the main issues that were discussed during the Farmfest Candidate Forums in 2026:
· The Struggling Farm and Rural Economy --- Whether it was comments in the various Farmfest candidate forums, or insights from panel members in the Ag Outlook Forum, the continued tight margins and low profitability in farming was a big topic of discussion. Profit margins have been below breakeven levels for a majority of crop producers for the past three years, and look to remain very tight for the 2027 crop year. This has put some farm operations at the brink of financial disaster, and could force some farmers to exit the business. Crop production expenses and land rental rates have increased substantially since 2023, while crop prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops have remained below breakeven levels. For farm operators that have experienced crop production losses due to drought and other natural disasters in the past few years, the financial situation has been even more challenging.
The livestock sector has fared somewhat better than the crop sector from a profitability standpoint in the past couple of years. Cattle feedlot operators and beef cow/calf producers have experienced the best profit margins in decades during 2025 and 2026, which has been driven by the lowest U.S. cattle numbers since the 1960’s and strong consumer demand for beef. Most swine producers have had improved profit margins in the past 12-18 months, following very negative profit margins from 2023 to early 2025. Dairy profit margins have improved in the past couple of years; however, that has mainly been due to the added income from selling dairy calves and cows in the beef market. Profit results for poultry producers in recent years have been mixed due to the impacts of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) virus in some areas.
The farm profitability struggles have resulted in a significant increase in the level of ad-hoc government payments in 2025 and 2026, which were intended to help stabilize farm income levels. The payments include the one-time economic assistance payments (ECAP), the 2025 Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments, and the 2023 and 2024 disaster assistance payments (SDRP I & II) that were paid in 2025 and 2026. The Federal government outlay for farm program payments totaled $30.5 billion in the 2025 fiscal year and is estimated at $44.3 billion for the 2026 fiscal year, which compares to $11 billion to $16 billion per year from 2022 to 2024. Regular farm program payments (PLC & ARC-CO) are also expected to be higher for the 2025 and 2026 crop years, due the provisions that were included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) that was enacted in 2025. The need an additional round of FBA payments in 2026-27, as well as potential crop disaster payments for the 2025 and 2026 crop years were discussed during the Farmfest candidate forums.
· Fraud in Minnesota State Government --- The “fraud” word made its way into all of the candidate forums; however, it was especially prevalent in the Minnesota Governor forum. There was a variety of blame and reasons offered for the severity of the fraud problem in Minnesota, as well as for fraud in the Federal government in general. All of the candidates for Governor from both parties pledged to place a high priority on addressing the fraud issue in Minnesota, with some differences on how to fix the problem. There was also discussion by some of the U.S. Senate and Congressional candidates for more oversight of fraud in government spending in all federally funded programs.
· Tariffs and the Importance of Ag Trade Agreements --- Most of the candidates that participated in the Farmfest forums discussed the impact of tariffs, along with the importance of ag exports and having strong trade agreements. Some candidates were highly critical of tariffs and the impacts that the tariffs have had on ag exports and farm input expenses. Other candidates were less critical of tariffs and pointed to the recent trade agreement with China and trade agreements with other countries as a positive impact of tariffs. A few candidates were basically against the use of any tariffs related to trade and export issues, while others pointed to the fact that sometimes tariffs are necessary when negotiating trade agreements with other countries. There was also discussion regarding the failure of the United States to renew the negotiations for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement that is currently in effect. Canada and Mexico are the two largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports and imports.
· Nationwide E-15 and the Future of the Renewable Fuels Industry --- Many farm operators, ag business leaders, and investors in renewable energy plants are concerned about government policies related to the future development and use of ethanol and other biofuels. Many States in the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, have a very strong and well-established corn-based ethanol industry, which utilizes over 35 percent of the corn produced each year in the United States. Most of the candidates in the Farmfest forums expressed support for the adoption of year-round E-15 blends of ethanol across the U.S., which has been proposed in Congress for several years without passage. There is currently some hope of passage in Congress, with E-15 included in the proposed U.S. Senate Farm Bill, and the U.S. House proposing a stand-alone E-15 bill. Many leaders also point to “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future; however, federal agencies have been slow to agree on criteria and farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. In addition to the direct benefits to farmers, renewable energy plants have become cornerstones in rural communities by providing jobs, adding to the local tax base, and enhancing the overall economic vitality of the communities.
· Failure to pass a New Farm Bill --- The inability of Congress to pass a new Farm Bill was a major discussion point in all of the Farmfest candidate forums. The U.S. House has passed its version of a new Farm Bill earlier this year; however, the vote was largely along party lines and lacked the bipartisan support that usually exists when passing a Farm Bill. The U.S. Senate has been discussing a new Farm Bill for several months; however, an initial attempt to pass a Farm Bill was recently voted down by the Senate Agriculture Committee. The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023, and has received one-year extensions by Congress for the past three years. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) that was enacted in 2025 addressed many of the Title I provisions in the Farm Bill, which resulted in enhancements to crop reference prices and farm program payment calculations, as well as improvements to crop insurance and other “safety net” programs for farmers. However, the OBBB also made some cuts and adjustments the Nutrition Title of the Farm Bill, which accounts for nearly 80 percent of the annual Farm Bill spending and funds the SNAP, WIC and other programs. Some members of Congress want to reverse some of the OBBB adjustments to SNAP and other programs when a new Farm Bill is passed, which is a major factor that is causing the delays in passing the legislation.
The candidates that participated in the Farmfest forums in 2026 discussed several other issues and programs that affect rural families, businesses, and communities in a variety of ways. This included high medical costs and rural health care access, impacts on families and businesses due to the continuing war in Iran, increasing property taxes and other economic challenges currently being experienced by rural families and businesses, programs to support new and beginning farmers, the loss of farm land to A.I. data centers, solar farms, etc., and many other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The livestream of the 2026 Farmfest Candidate Forums can be viewed at: https://www.farmfest.com/at-the-show/livestream-forums/.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

One of the biggest questions in analyzing potential corn and soybean market prices for the 2026-27 marketing year is the crop conditions in the Corn Belt and Plains States. In the Upper Midwest, crop conditions are much more variable than a year ago, when much of the region experienced good-to-excellent corn and soybean yields. Some areas of the Midwest have had excessive rainfall this Spring and early Summer, while other areas are dealing various levels of drought conditions. On the other hand, there are portions of the Upper Midwest that have had timely rainfall events and very favorable growing conditions, which has farmers quite optimistic about the 2026 corn and soybean yield prospects for the second year in a row.
Rainfall amounts across Minnesota and other Upper Midwestern States have been highly variable during the month of July, ranging from 10-15 inches total in portions on southeast Minnesota to less that one inch total in extreme southwest Minnesota and adjoining areas of northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. There was some drown-out damage and crop loss from the heavy rainfall events in early July; however, the crops in most areas were fairly well advanced which helped minimize the crop damage. In addition, there were several severe storms in July with strong winds and hail across the Midwest, which did cause some damage to the corn and soybean crop in some locations. The University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca recorded 6.8 inches of rainfall during July, which was 1.8 inches above normal. As of July 31, the Waseca site has received 14.71 inches of precipitation since May1, which is very near normal for the growing season.
The areas of the Corn Belt that have been receiving timely rainfall during the growing season, together with above normal temperatures, have experienced some very favorable conditions for crop production. The 2026 growing season in the Upper Midwest started out with normal to slightly earlier-than-normal corn and soybean planting dates in many areas, with some delayed planting in portions of the eastern Corn Belt due to wet field conditions. Above normal temperatures from late May through July has allowed for rapid development of this year’s corn and soybean crop. As of July 29, the accumulated crop “growing degree units” (GDU’s) at the U of M research site at Waseca since May 1 measured 1,664 GDU’s. The 2026 GDU total is about 12.5 percent ahead normal at Waseca, and compares to late July GDU accumulation totals of 1,624 in 2025 and 1,583 in 2024.
The weekly USDA Crop Report released on July 27 listed the rating of the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 63 percent “good-to-excellent”, which compares to 73 percent a year ago in late July. Twelve percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” on July 27, compared to only 7 percent a year ago. There is a wide variation in the “good-to-excellent” crop ratings across the major corn and soybean producing States. The highest “good-to-excellent” corn ratings in the primary corn producing States in the U.S. were in Iowa at 80 percent, Minnesota at 77 percent, and Wisconsin at 74 percent. Some of the more moderate “good-to-excellent” ratings included 68 percent, in Missouri, 63 percent in Indiana, and 60 percent in both Nebraska and Ohio. The lowest good-to-excellent ratings for corn were 59 percent in Illinois and only 50 percent in both North and South Dakota. The “good-to-excellent” ratings for corn in late-July in most Midwestern States trail the very favorable ratings a year ago, when the 2025 growing season ended with a record U.S. average corn yield of 186 bushels per acre.
The latest USDA Crop Report listed 63 percent of the 2026 U.S. soybean crop as “good-to-excellent”, which is down from 70 percent in late July a year ago. The latest report showed 9 percent of the U.S. soybean crop with a rating of “poor-to-very poor”, which compares to only 6 percent in 2025. The highest “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings in the Midwest were Iowa at 80 percent, Minnesota at 78 percent , and Wisconsin at 70 percent. Most other States had much lower “good-to-excellent” ratings on July 27. This included Indiana at 63 percent, Missouri at 62 percent, Nebraska at 61 percent, Illinois and Ohio at 57 percent, South Dakota at 52 percent, and North Dakota at only 46 percent. Similar to corn, the higher soybean ratings in most Midwestern States in late July this year trailed the ratings in 2025, which ended with a record U.S. average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre.
There is not a lot of historical correlation between weekly crop ratings in late July and final corn and soybean yields. Timely August rainfalls and favorable growing conditions can enhance final yield levels in areas that were not severely impacted by the excessive rainfall earlier this year or by the current drought conditions; however, lack of late season rain events can reduce final crop yields in areas that are quite dry. For example, timely rainfall and favorable growing conditions in August and early September enhanced the final 2025 corn and soybean yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest, as compared to yield expectations in late July. By contrast, dry conditions late in the growing season in the western Corn Belt in both 2023 and 2024 resulted in lower final yields compared to the expectations in late July.
The late July rainfall events have been highly variable across the Midwest, resulting in farmers and crop consultants in some areas being quite concerned about the 2026 corn and soybean yield potential. The lack of rainfall, together with the extreme heat, has put considerable stress on this year’s corn and soybean crop in a large portion of the western and northern Corn Belt. The latest “U.S. Drought Monitor”, released on July 30 showed various levels of drought concern in Minnesota, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin, along with the western half of Iowa.
Seventy-six percent of Minnesota was listed to be in “moderate” drought or worse on July 30, with 35 percent in the “severe” drought category, primarily in north central and northeast portions of the State, as well as in extreme southwest Minnesota. Twenty-two percent of Iowa was listed in the “moderate” drought category, primarily in the western third of the State. The most extreme drought conditions in the Corn Belt were in Nebraska, where 84 percent of the State was listed to be in “”moderate” drought or worse, with 40 percent of the State in “severe” drought and 23 percent in “extreme” drought. South Dakota also had quite high numbers in the latest U.S. Drought monitor, with 73 percent listed in “moderate” drought or worse and 33 percent shown as “severe” or “extreme” drought. By contrast, very little of the Eastern Corn Belt, the eastern half of Iowa, or the southern portion of southeast Minnesota showed any concerns in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
Some private companies will have Midwest crop tours later in August, which may provide some indicators regarding 2026 corn and soybean yield trends in the region. This will allow for some early projections for total U.S. corn and soybean production in 2026. These crop tours tend to concentrate on the core areas of the Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Southern Minnesota, and Southeast South Dakota, which account for a large percentage of the U.S. corn and soybean production each year. The crop tours can give us some guidance on anticipated 2026 U.S. corn and soybean yields and total production; however, given the wide variation in crop conditions across the Midwest, we will likely not have solid U.S. yield and production estimates until well into the harvest season this Fall.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

USDA has announced the final 2025 market year average (MYA) prices for wheat and other small grain crops. The final 2025 MYA prices for wheat and small grains were based on the monthly average farm-level prices from June 1, 2025 until May 31, 2026. The monthly average prices are then “weighted”, based on the percentage of bushels sold each month, in order to arrive at a final MYA price for the marketing year. The 2025 MYA prices were finalized on June 30, 2026. The 2025 MYA price is used to calculate any potential 2025 PLC or AEC-CO farm program payments for wheat and small grains, with the payments to be paid in October, 2026.
 
The same process will be used to calculate the final 2025 MYA price for corn and soybeans. The 2025 market year for corn and soybeans runs from September 1, 2025 through August 31, 2026, with the MYA price finalized on September 30, 2026, Given the fact that there is only a few weeks remaining in the 2025 marketing year, the final MYA prices for corn and soybeans are not likely to vary significantly from current estimates Based on the USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report that was released on July 10, the current 2025 estimated MYA prices are $4.15 per bushel for corn and $10.40 per bushel for soybeans.
 
For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of calculated 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops. This provision means that it is likely that all eligible base acres of corn, soybean, wheat, and many other crops are likely to receive either a PLC or ARC-CO payment for the 2025 crop year. All 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be paid in October, 2026, similar to the payments for wheat and small grains. These payments will be automatically calculated by FSA offices and deposited into appropriate accounts. The provision allowing the higher of PLC or ARC-CO payments will only be in effect for the 2025 crop year. Farmers will again need to choose between PLC and ARC-CO for the 2026 crop year. Farm program sign-up for 2026 is likely to begin early this Fall at County FSA offices.
 
2025 PLC payments will be based on the PLC farm program yield on a given farm unit times the PLC payment amount per bushel, when the final MYA price is lower than the reference price. If the final MYA price is higher than the reference price, there is no PLC payment. Potential ARC-CO payments are based on the final county revenue (MYA price times the final 2025 county average yield), compared to the 2025 benchmark (BM) revenue (BM price times the county BM yield). The final 2025 county RMA yields were released in June and will be used to determine potential 2025 ARC-CO payments. If the 2025 ARC-CO payment is higher than the PLC payment for an eligible producer, they would receive the ARC-CO payment instead of the minimum PLC payment for a crop. All farm program payments are paid on 85 percent of crop base acres, so any calculated payments per acre need to be factored by .85 to arrive at an estimated payment per base acre.  It is important to remember that farm program payments are paid on crop base acres, and not on 2025 planted acres.
 
Following is the analysis of the likely 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for Wheat, Oats, and Barley:
Wheat --- The final 2025 market year average (MYA) wheat price is $5.06 per bushel. The 2025 PLC wheat reference price is $6.35 per bushel, and the 2025 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.98 per bushel. The final MYA price is $1.29 per bushel under the threshold for 2025 wheat PLC payments and is $1.92 below the 2025 benchmark price. At the final MYA price of $5.06 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be about $40 to $50 per wheat base acre in most counties in Minnesota, North and South Dakota, and other Upper Midwest States.  It appears highly likely that the 2025 PLC payments for wheat will exceed ARC-CO payments in most counties.  For there to be a chance for 2025 ARC-CO payments to exceed PLC payments, the  farm-level PLC yield would need to be approximately 65 percent or lower below the county benchmark yield.
Oats --- The final 2025 MYA price for oats is $3.23 per bushel. The 2025 PLC oats reference price is $3.05 per bushel, and the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $3.84 per bushel. The final MYA price is $.18 per bushel above the threshold for 2025 oats PLC payments, and is $.61 below the 2025 benchmark price. As a result of the MYA price exceeding the reference price, there will be no 2025 PLC payments for oats; however, it is possible that producers in many counties may qualify for an ARC-CO payment for oats. If the final 2025 county average yield was less than 7 percent above the county benchmark yield, ARC-CO payments would be initiated. The maximum ARC-CO payment would be reached at a final yield that is 7 percent below the benchmark yield.
 
Barley --- Similar to oats, there will be no 2025 PLC payment for barley. The final 2025 MYA price for barley is $5.46 per bushel, which was only one cent above the 2025 PLC reference price of $5.45 per bushel. However, the MYA price is $.65 per bushel below the 2025 barley benchmark price of $6.10 per bushel, making it likely that producers in many counties may qualify for an ARC-CO payment for barley. If the final 2025 county average barley yield was near the county benchmark yield, ARC-CO payments would be initiated. The maximum 2025 ARC-CO payment would be reached at a final 2025 yield that is about 13 percent below the benchmark yield.
 
Following is the latest update on likely 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payments for Corn and Soybeans:
Corn --- The good news is that it is likely that all eligible corn producers will receive a significant 2025 farm program payment. Based on the July WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA corn price is $4.15 per bushel. The estimated MYA price is $.27 per bushel below the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.42 per bushel, and is $.88 per bushel below the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $5.03 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $4.15 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be about $35 to $40 per corn base acre on farms with a PLC program yield of 150-170 per acre, and $30-$35 per base acre with a farm PLC yield of 130-150 bushels per acre. If the final MYA price increases by $.05 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would drop by about $5 to $7 per base acre; however, if the final MYA price declines by $.05 per bushel, the PLC estimate would increase by a similar amount. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final county average corn yield that is about 8-10 percent above the 2025 benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 104 percent or less of the county benchmark yield. The likelihood of PLC or ARC-CO payments is highly variable from county-to-county across the Midwest.
Soybeans --- Similar to corn, it is likely eligible soybean producers will receive a 2025 farm program payment.; however, it will likely be considerably lower than the corn payment in most counties. Based on the June WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is estimated at $10.40 per bushel. The estimated MYA price would be $.31 per bushel below the 2025 PLC soybean reference price of $10.71 per bushel, and would be $1.77 per bushel lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $12.17 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $10.40 per bushel, the estimated 2025 PLC payment would be $10 to $15 per soybean base acre in most counties in the Upper Midwest, with a slightly low payment rate in the northern portions of the region. If the final MYA price increases by $.10 per bushel, the PLC payment estimate would decline by about $4 to $5 per base acre. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5 percent above the 2025 county benchmark yield, and ARC-CO payments will likely exceed PLC payments at about 102 percent or less of the county benchmark yield.
County Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices provide information on farm-level PLC program yields and other farm program details; however, FSA offices do not provide estimates on farm program payments. Information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information is available on the USDA ARC-PLC web site at:  www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.
The University of Illinois has an excellent spreadsheet to calculate estimated 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payment for various crops in specific counties. The website is at:  https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/.  For specific questions on 2025 farm program payments, contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, at: [email protected].
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

If you poll corn and soybean producers across the Corn Belt regarding the condition of the 2026 crop, you will probably get some pretty positive responses in most areas of the Upper Midwest. Many portions of the region have been getting adequate rainfall, which together with above normal heat units, has resulted in very favorable growing conditions. As is usual in late June and early July, some locations have received excess amounts of precipitation, while other areas are on the dry side hoping for more rainfall in the coming weeks. There is some concern with intensifying drought conditions in portions of the western Corn Belt, especially with the extreme heat expected in early July.
The old saying “rain makes grain” may hold true in many instances; however, excessive precipitation amounts again this year early in the growing season has caused crop loss in some areas of the Midwest. Portions of the eastern Corn Belt, as well as some locations in the Upper Midwest, have been impacted by severe storms and excessive rainfall amounts during June. This has caused drown-out areas in some fields, as well as crop damage to the remaining crop in the region. In addition, severe storms have caused considerable hail damage to crops in some locations across the Midwest, as well as tornadoes and strong winds that have damaged crops, grain bins, and farm buildings.
The heavy rainfall events and severe storms in the Upper Midwest in 2026 have been far more localized in nature, compared to the large major rainfall events in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa in previous years that caused major flooding and crop loss. As of June 24, the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca had received 4.95 inches of rainfall during the month of June, plus an additional .85 inches on June 28, which will increase the total June precipitation to just above the 5.32 inches of average precipitation for the month of June. By comparison, the research center at Waseca received 7.72 inches of rainfall during June in 2025, and 12.45 inches of June precipitation in 2024. For the year, total precipitation at the Waseca site is just over 14 inches, or about 4 inches below normal.
As of June 29, the University of Minnesota Southwest Research and Outreach Center at Lamberton had received a total of 3.60 inches of rainfall during the month of June; however, 1.26 inches of that amount was received on June 28. Since May 1, the Lamberton location has received 5.23 inches of precipitation, which is about 2.3 inches below normal for that two-month period. The moderate rainfall amounts in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa in 2026 have been more favorable for crop growth and development in 2026, as compared to the excessive rainfall events that occurred in both 2025 and 2024.
For generations, the standard measure for corn growth was “knee-high by July 4th”, which meant that the corn plant should be able to produce a crop for that year. Of course, most farmers from two or three generations ago were using far different corn hybrids, with much lower yield goals for their corn, than are farmers in 2026. In today’s corn production, “waist-high” or higher corn by July 4th is a more typical, which has resulted in some very good corn yields in most areas of the Upper Midwest in recent years. It would difficult to get exceptional corn yields in the region in 2026, if corn is only “knee-high” or smaller on July 4th.
In much of the Upper Midwest, the 2026 growing season started out earlier than normal, with most corn planted in the last half of April and early May. Most corn in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa that was planted by early-May and will likely be “waist-high” to “shoulder high” by July 4th. Some of the corn planted in April in areas with favorable growing conditions will likely be near the tasseling and pollination stage by July 4th, which does not occur frequently in States like Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. In locations that have been experiencing excessive rainfall or severe drought, the corn development may lag a bit further behind other areas.; however, much of that corn still has very good yield potential in 2026.
Cooler weather in mid-to-late June slowed crop development a bit in some areas; however, this followed a period of very warm temperatures in late May and early June that resulted in rapid crop growth. Crop growth and development is ahead of normal in most portions of the Upper Midwest. As of June 24, the accumulated growing degree units (GDU’s) at the Waseca Research Center since May 1 totaled 824 GDU’s, which is nearly 10 percent above of normal for the year, and is very similar to the GDU accumulation in late June a year ago. At the Lamberton Research Center, the 2026 GDU accumulation was also running slightly ahead of normal for late June. In areas that have adequate soil moisture, and have avoided the heavy rainfall events and crop loss in June, the warmer temperatures during the early growing season have resulted in favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans in most areas of the Upper Midwest.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on June 25 showed that approximately 70 percent of the U.S. was experiencing some level of drought, with over 52 percent of the country in the “moderate” drought category or worse, and over 33 percent in the “severe” drought category. Nearly the entire States of Nebraska and South Dakota, along with western Kansas and North Dakota, are in some level of drought, with “exceptional” drought conditions in a large portion of western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota. There has also been a growing area of more severe drought conditions in the primary crop production areas of northeast Nebraska, northwest Iowa, southeast South Dakota, and southwest Minnesota. There was some relief through portions of that region with some needed rainfall on June 28. The balance of the Corn Belt only has a few abnormally dry areas, which has resulted in the highly favorable growing conditions in most of the Midwest.
The weekly USDA Crop Condition Report on June 22 listed 68 percent of the U.S. corn crop as “good to excellent”, which is the just slightly lower than the 70 percent favorable rating at this point in 2025. Only 6 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor” or “very poor” on June 22. The crop rating has remained fairly steady in recent weeks; however, there is some concern due to developing dryness in portions of the Western Corn Belt and the Central Plains States. The “good-to-excellent” corn ratings in the Upper Midwest were quite high with Wisconsin at 81 percent, Minnesota at 79 percent, and Iowa at 77 percent. The higher corn ratings were more variable in the eastern Corn Belt, with Illinois at a 60 percent “good-to excellent” rating, Indiana and Michigan at 71 percent, and Ohio at 57 percent. The “good-to-excellent ratings in the western Corn Belt included Kansas at 74 percent, South Dakota at 67 percent, North Dakota at 64 percent, and Nebraska at 57 percent.
The June 22 Crop Report listed 66 percent of the U.S. soybean crop as “good to excellent”, which is the same rating as a year ago in late June. Similar to corn, only 6 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated “poor” or “very poor” on June 22. The higher “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings in the Corn Belt included Wisconsin at 79 percent, Minnesota at 76 percent, Iowa at 74 percent, and Indiana at 71 percent. More moderate “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings existed in Kansas at 65 percent, both North and South Dakota at 63 percent, and Michigan at 61 percent. The lowest “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings were in Nebraska at 59 percent, Illinois at 58 percent, and Ohio at 55 percent.
Crop Acreage Reporting Deadline
Farmers are reminded that July 15 is the deadline to report 2026 planted crop acreage to their local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) office, including any prevented planted crop acres this year. Reporting the annual crop acreage has become extremely important in recent years. Some of the supplemental farm program payments and disaster payments have been based on the reported crop acreage for previous years. In addition, the current crop base acreage update for the PLC and ARC-CO farm program choices in future years is being based on the reported crop acreage from 2019 to 2023. If there are questions regarding the crop acreage reporting process, farmers should contact their local FSA office.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail [email protected]