It is likely that a significant number of corn and soybean producers in many areas of the Upper Midwest may qualify for crop insurance indemnity payments in 2024. Several portions of the region dealt with excessive rainfall during June that caused flooded fields, considerable drown-out damage to crops, and generally poor growing conditions for corn and soybeans early in the growing season. There were also numerous severe storms in some locations throughout the summer months that also resulted in some crop damage later in the growing season. These weather issues will likely result in yield reductions on numerous farms across the region, which together with the price declines from the crop insurance base prices on March 1, increases the likelihood of 2024 crop insurance indemnity payments for many producers.
 
With Federal Crop Insurance, every year is different, and with the multiple options available to producers, there are many variable results from crop insurance coverage at harvest time. The 2024 crop year will be no different, with some producers choosing Yield Protection (YP) policies (yield only) versus Revenue Protection (RP) policies (yield and price), and producers having different levels of coverage on various crops. Producers also vary on having “optional units” versus “enterprise units” for their crop insurance coverage. In addition, some producers also have enhanced insurance coverage through private insurance companies, or through the “Supplemental Crop Option” (SCO) and Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) policies that were available in 2024.
 
In the Midwest, most corn and soybean producers in recent years have tended to secure some level of revenue (RP) crop insurance coverage, rather than standard yield-only (YP) policies. Farm operators like the flexibility of the RP policies that provide insurance coverage for reduced yields, as well as in instances where the harvest price drops below initial base price. In 2024, crop insurance loss calculations for corn and soybeans with RP policies will likely function similarly due to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) harvest price for corn and soybeans being below the 2024 crop insurance base prices, which were finalized on March 1.
 
The established base prices for 2024 YP and RP crop insurance policies were $4.66 per bushel for corn and $11.55 per bushel for soybeans. These base prices will be the payment rate for 2024 YP policies for corn and soybeans. These base prices will also likely serve as the final price to calculate revenue guarantees for determining potential RP crop insurance indemnity payments for corn and soybeans.
 
The final harvest price for RP policies with harvest price protection is based on the average CBOT December corn futures and CBOT November soybean futures during the month of October, with prices finalized on November 1, 2024. If the final harvest CBOT price for December corn futures or November soybean futures is higher than the established base prices, the harvest price would then be used to determine the RP insurance guarantees, which is not likely for either corn or soybeans in 2024. The harvest price is also used to calculate the value of the actual harvested bushels for all RP insurance policies. As of September 6, the crop insurance CBOT harvest price estimates were just over $4.00 per bushel for corn and just over $10.00 per bushel for soybeans.
 
Corn and soybean producers had the option of selecting crop insurance policies ranging from 60% to 85% coverage levels. The level of insurance coverage can result in some producers receiving crop insurance indemnity payments, while other producers receive no indemnity payments, even though both producers had the same adjusted APH yield and the same final yield. For example, at an adjusted APH corn yield of 200 bushels per acre, a producer with 85% RP coverage would have a yield guarantee of 170 bushel per acre, and a revenue guarantee of $792 per acre, while a producer with 75% coverage would have a yield guarantee of 150 bushels per acre, and a guarantee of $699 per acre. If the actual 2024 yield was 170 bushels per acre, with a $4.00 per bushel harvest price, the producer with 85% coverage would receive a gross indemnity payment of $112 per acre, while the producer with 75% coverage would receive an indemnity payment $19 per acre.
 
The likelihood of a lower crop insurance harvest price, based on the average CBOT December corn futures price during October, greatly increases the likelihood of crop insurance indemnity payments for Upper Midwest corn producers that have 80% and 85% RP insurance policies for 2024. Based on the current CBOT December corn price projection (near $4.00/bu.), indemnity payments for corn could begin at final yields that are very near the 2024 APH yields for farmers with 85% RP insurance policies. For example, with an 85% RP policy on corn with a 200 bushel per acre APH yield and a $4.00 per bushel harvest price, 2024 crop insurance indemnity payments would begin at a yield below 198 bushels per acre (very near the APH yield). If the harvest price increases to $4.30 per bushel, the payments would begin at a yield below 184 bushels per acre (92 percent of APH yield).
 
The situation for soybeans will likely be very similar to corn at current CBOT November soybean price estimates, with indemnity payments being initiated very close to APH yields with 85% RP insurance coverage. Based on current soybean harvest price estimate (near $10.00/bu.) and an APH yield of 60 bushels per acre, crop insurance indemnity payments would begin at just below 59 bushels per acre. However, there has been some strength in the soybean price in the past few weeks. If the average November futures price in October increases to $10.75 per bushel, the payments would begin at 55 bushels per acre (92% of APH yield).
 
A majority of Midwest corn and soybean producers utilize “enterprise units” for their crop insurance coverage, which combines all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit. By comparison, “optional units” allow producers to insure crops separately in each township section. Premium rates are somewhat higher with optional units. Enterprise units work quite well with RP policies to protect against price drops during the growing season, and when a producer has most of their land in the same general area. Optional units are preferable when a producer has a variety of land that is spread across a wide area in a county, or when producers have individual farms that are highly susceptible to natural disasters, such as flooding, drought, etc.
 
For example …… assume that producers A and B both have 5 separate farms in the same county with an APH corn yield of 200 bushels per acre, and that the overall average 2024 corn yield on all farms was 186 bushels per acre. However, two of the farms were 210 bushels per acre each, and the other three farms were 170 bushels per acre each. Also assume a final corn harvest price of $4.30 per bushel. Producer A has an 85% RP policy with optional units and producer B has an 85% RP policy with enterprise units. Producer A, with the optional units, would receive no insurance payment on the two farms with the higher yield; however, he would receive an indemnity payment of $61 per acre on the three farms with the lower yield. Producer B, with the enterprise units, would receive no insurance payments on any farms, since that would be based on the overall average yield.
 
Producers that have crop revenue losses in 2024, which could result in potential crop insurance indemnity payments, should properly document the yield losses, regardless of their type or level of insurance coverage. A reputable crop insurance agent is the best source of information to make estimates for potential 2024 crop insurance indemnity payments, and to find out about documentation requirements for crop insurance losses. It is important for producers who are facing crop losses in 2024 to understand their crop insurance coverage and the calculations used to determine crop insurance indemnity payments.
 
Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Crop Insurance Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].  The University of Illinois FarmDoc web site also contains some good crop insurance information and spreadsheets to estimate crop insurance payments. The FarmDoc web site is located at:  https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/crop-insurance
 
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]
​

​As we enter the final months of 2024, some farmers in the Upper Midwest could be facing serious financial challenges by the end of the year. Harvest prices for the 2024 corn and soybean crop are at the lowest level in the past five years, which are below break-even price levels for a majority of farm operators. In addition, some crop producers in many portions of Southern Minnesota, Northwest Iowa, and Southeast South Dakota could be dealing with the “perfect storm” financially, due to reduced crop yields in 2024 resulting from late planting, excessive rainfall, and flooded fields. On the other hand, several of the primary corn and soybean production areas are anticipating above average crop yields in 2024, which will likely keep market prices at depressed levels through the harvest season. The combination of reduced crop yields, low commodity prices, and continued high input costs, could spell financial disaster for some Midwest cop producers.  
Most crop input expenses were higher in 2024 compared to expense levels in 2023 and other recent years. Input costs have increased for seed, crop chemicals, repairs, custom work, and labor. Interest expense, machinery depreciation and other overhead costs have also increased in 2024 compared to recent years. The one exception is fertilizer expense, which declined 15-20 percent from the record-high U.S. fertilizer prices in 2022 and 2023. In most areas, land rental costs are also 10-25 percent higher than a few years ago. Now crop producers are facing the prospects of much lower commodity prices, along with reduced crop yields in some areas due to weather challenges, will likely result in some of the lowest profit margins in the past decade.
Following three years in a row of strong profit levels (2020-2022) for crop production in the Upper Midwest, there were already signs in 2023 that pointed to more challenging farm profit scenarios in the future. USDA is projecting total U.S. net farm income to decline by over 25 percent in 2024, as compared to 2023 net farm income levels. This followed a decline of 16 percent in U.S. net farm income from 2022 to 2023. If the USDA projection holds true or gets worse for 2024, it would represent the largest two-year (2022-2024) decline in history for U.S. net farm income. USDA is also estimating net cash income on U.S. farms in 2024 to decline by over $92 million from net cash income levels two years ago in 2022. If the estimated 2024 U.S. cash farm income of $121.7 billion comes to reality, it would be similar to the 2016 net cash income level and would be one of the lowest levels in the past two decades.
 
Earlier this year, the University of Minnesota reported that the median net farm income for Southern Minnesota farmers in 2023 was only $40,000, which was over four times lower than a year earlier. This followed two of the highest average median net farm income levels ever recorded, which were $177,614 in 2022 and $176,426 in 2021. The very solid net farm income levels from 2020-2022 followed seven years (2013-2019) in a row of sup-par net farm income levels in the region. It now appears that we could be returning to the very low farm income levels and negative profit margins that existed for many farm operators from 2013 to 2019.
 
An analysis of actual data from the SCC Farm Business Management program and the University of Minnesota FINBIN program by Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, shows some interesting trends on profitability levels for corn production in recent years. The analysis focused on cash rented corn acres in southern Minnesota (2014-2023). The analysis takes the average corn direct input costs, cash rent costs, and overhead expenses and divides those expenses by the average corn selling price for the year to arrive at how many bushels of corn it took to cover the various expenses, as well as the bushels need to cover all expenses. The net return over all costs would be the farm operator’s “net return to labor and management”. The analysis did not include crop insurance or government farm program payment income into the “bushels needed” calculations; however, that payment income is included in the “net return over all costs” figure.
 
 
Based on the FBM data, there was a negative “net return” over all expenses for corn production each year from 2013-2018, with less bushels produced than were needed to cover all crop expenses in some years. From 2020 to 2022, corn producers benefitted from favorable corn yields and strong commodity prices, together with manageable expenses, to achieve some very solid profit levels. A combination of higher input expenses and lower corn market prices in 2023 showed that an average of 208 bushels per acre were needed to cover all costs on cash rented land. The actual average corn yield in 2023 was 203 bushels, marking that the first year since 2019 with less bushels produced than were needed to cover costs. Based on the data, there was a small average profit margin of $39 per acre in 2023 on cash rented corn acres, primarily due to favorable crop insurance indemnity payments. 
 
An analysis of estimates for the 2024 crop year, which were updated on August 1, shows signs that the profit situation for corn production could be considerably worse once all the 2024 data is collected. As of August 1, USDA is projected a national market year average (MYA) corn price of $4.20 per bushel. Based average crop input cost estimates for 2024, and average cash rental rate of $275 per acre, and the USDA MYA corn price of $4.20 per bushel, it will take an estimated corn production level of 244 bushels per acre to cover all expenses. This increases to 269 bushels per acre at a corn price of $3.80 per bushel, which was close to the farm-level price bids for harvest delivery at many locations in southern Minnesota in late August. These corn yields will not be realistic for most farmers in southern Minnesota in 2024. By comparison, it took only 154 bushels of corn in 2022 and 149 bushels in 2021 to cover all expenses.
 
Obviously, there is a wide variation in breakeven costs among farm operators in a given year, depending on final average yield and the market price received, as well as the variation in crop input costs and land expense. Just as it did a year ago in 2023, crop insurance indemnity payments will likely play a big role in final profit levels from corn production in 2024. There is also considerable variation in the type of crop insurance coverage that farmers carry, which will impact final payments. Based on current market price estimates, it is not likely that crop insurance payments will totally make up for the likely negative profit margins in 2024 in most instances.
 
The combination of higher crop input costs and land rental rates is likely to put more pressure on crop breakeven prices for 2024. Using typical crop input expenses and average overhead costs, together with a land rental rate of $275 per acre and a targeted return to the farm operator of $50 per acre, the breakeven price to cover those expenses for corn in 2024 for most farmers will likely be around $5.00-$5.50 per bushel at average yield levels. If the cash rental rate increases to $350 per acre, or for farmers with reduced corn yields in 2024, the breakeven price is likely to jump to near $6.00 per bushel. The estimated 2024 breakeven soybean price for most producers to cover the cost of production in will likely be in the $12.00 to $13.00 per bushel range at average yields. 
Based on the monthly World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report in August, USDA is estimating the U.S. average corn price for the 2024-25 marketing year (2024 crop) at $4.20 per bushel and the average 2024-25 soybean price at $10.80 per bushel. Local cash price bids for corn in early August at grain elevators and ethanol plants in Southern Minnesota were near $3.60-$3.80 per bushel. Local cash price bids for soybeans were near $9.40-$9.60 per bushel, with slightly higher bids at soybean processing plants. A year ago, late August prices for harvest delivery were $4.80 per bushel for corn and $13.50 per bushel for soybeans.
 
If the lower corn and soybean prices continue into 2025, this may become an even bigger financial concern going forward. While fertilizer costs have modified a bit in the past year, input costs for seed, chemicals, fuel, repairs, and labor have continued at higher levels. In addition, short-term interest rates on farm operating lines of credit have remained high, and credit needs will likely increase to finance the 2025 crop inputs. If corn and soybean grain futures prices for the Fall of 2025 stay low in early 2025, crop insurance guarantees for the 2025 crop year will be much lower than in 2024. This will increase the financial risk for many farmers going forward, and will likely result in increased concern by ag lenders that provide capital for crop production.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

​August is typically the month of the year when we get the first producer survey yield estimates from USDA, as well as yield projections from major private forms. This yield data is gathered in different formats from producer surveys, crop tours, and satellite technology. There is not necessarily a method that has proven more accurate than any other, as all methods have some strengths as well as some limitations. As usual, the one consistency being echoed by most crop experts is that the 2024 crop yields are likely to be highly variable and are very difficult to predict. Some areas of the eastern and central Corn Belt have experienced excellent growing conditions this year, while portions of the upper Midwest such as the southern third of Minnesota were negatively impacted by flooding and excessive rainfall during June. Most of the crop information in these estimates was based on crop conditions in early-to-mid August, so any major changes in conditions after that timeframe could alter final state or national yield numbers.
 
The statewide and national corn and soybean yield estimates in the USDA Crop Report that was released on August 12, 2024, were based on crop conditions as of August 1. The USDA report was based on a survey of over 15,000 crop producers from across the United States that was conducted National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). The next USDA Crop Report will be released on September 12 and will be based on crop conditions as of September 1. This report will include actual field survey data in the yield and production estimates.
 
Two of the main private firms that release crop yield and production estimates during August use different methods and technology to arrive at their projections. The “Pro Farmer Crop Tour” is quite well established and has been around for several decades. Pro Farmer Tour gathers “in-person” field yield data from the primary corn and soybean production areas in seven States during the third or fourth week of August, which is then adjusted for crop maturity and historical differences between tour data and final yield numbers. Yield adjustments are also made in made in States that have unique conditions in certain areas of a State, such as drought conditions, irrigation in Nebraska, and geographical differences in States like Minnesota.
 
For the several years, DTN has conducted a “digital yield tour” of the primary corn and soybean production areas in the United States. DTN derives their yield estimates utilizing satellite imagery taken during the second week of August, which is then adjusted based on actual rainfall amounts and temperature data, as well as for the drought index. The DTN yield data will continue to be updated into September. DTN did not issue a national corn or soybean yield estimate in the August estimates.
 
Nationally, the Pro Farmer corn yield estimate was 181.1, compared to 183.1 bushels per acre in the August 12 USDA Crop Report. The 2024 national corn yield projections from USDA and Pro Farmer both exceed the final 2023 record average U.S. corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. The 2024 national corn yield projections also compare to other national average U.S. corn yields of 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, and 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019.  
 
The national yield differences between the USDA corn yield estimate (183.1 bu./acre) and the Pro Farmer projection (181.1 bu./acre) may not seem significant; however, that could potentially represent a difference in the final total 2024 U.S. corn production level. Depending on U.S. and World corn demand, that yield difference could affect the U.S. corn supply, which in turn could impact grain market prices in the coming months. The current difference between the corn yield estimates from USDA and Pro Farmer is 2 bushels per acre. Based on the USDA estimate of 82.7 million harvested acres of corn in the U.S. in 2024, that yield difference represents over 165 million bushels of corn. USDA is currently estimating the 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks at nearly 2.1 billion bushels, based on the USDA estimated yield of 183.1 bushels per acre. A national yield decline of two bushels per acre in 2024 would potentially reduce U.S. corn carryout levels by about 8 percent.
In many instances, there was not a lot of consistency in the state-by-state average corn yield estimates from the various sources. Some states had higher projected corn yields in the August 12 USDA crop report compared to estimates released by the crop tours and digital surveys, while in other states the USDA projected yield trailed the private estimates. For example, USDA estimated the 2024 Minnesota corn yield at 185 bushels per acre and DTN was at 186.7 bushels per acre, compared to the estimate of 170 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. In South Dakota, the corn yield estimates were 162 bushels per acre by USDA and 166.7 bushels per acre by DTN, while Pro Farmer was at 156 bushels per acre. On the other hand, the private company corn yield projections for Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska were fairly close to the USDA yield estimates. Crop and weather conditions in the northern Corn Belt have been much more variable than in the eastern Corn Belt during the 2024 growing season.
 
NASS estimated the 2024 U.S. national average soybean yield at 53.3 bushels per acre in the August 12 USDA Report, which compares to national soybean yield estimate of 54.9 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. The USDA and Pro Farmer 2024 soybean yield estimates would far exceed the final 2023 national yield of 50.6 bushels per acre and the record national average soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016. Other recent national soybean average yields were 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021, 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020, and 47.4 bushels per acre in 2019. The various state-by-state soybean yield projections in the northern Corn Belt showed less variation between the August USDA yield estimates and the 2024 yield projections by the private firms than existed with corn. However, the statewide soybean yield projections in the eastern Corn Belt showed more variation among the various estimates, which could be partially due to the different methodology that is used to calculate yields and the drier weather pattern that has developed in portions of the region.  
 
Based on the August 19th USDA Crop Progress Report, 67 percent of the U.S. corn crop as “good-to-excellent” which compares to late August crop ratings of 58 percent in 2023 and 55 percent in 2022. Only 11 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor”. The highest statewide “good-to-excellent” ratings were Missouri at 79 percent, Iowa at 77 percent, Illinois at 76 percent, Indiana at 73 percent, Nebraska at 72 percent, and South Dakota at 70 percent. Lower “good-to excellent” corn ratings were recorded in other Midwest states with Wisconsin at 64 percent, Minnesota and North Dakota at 61 percent, and Ohio at 55 percent. The lowest corn ratings were in Texas at 41 percent and Kansas at 45 percent. Most 2024 statewide corn ratings in the Midwest for mid-August exceeded comparable 2023 corn ratings, except in Ohio which had better ratings a year ago.  
 
The weekly USDA crop ratings on August 19 listed 68 percent of the soybean crop in the U.S. as “good-to-excellent”, which well above the ratings of 59 percent in 2023 and 57 percent in 2022 at this point in the year.  Many of the Midwest States with the largest soybean acreage were in the higher crop ratings categories. Iowa led the way at 77 percent, followed by Nebraska at 74 percent, Indiana at 72 percent and Illinois at 70 percent. The soybean “good-to-excellent” ratings in other States included Minnesota at 69 percent, South Dakota at 68 percent, Wisconsin at 62 percent North Dakota at 57 percent, and Ohio at 56 percent. All of the Midwest States in the primary soybean production area in the U.S., except Ohio, had higher “good-to-excellent” ratings in late August this year, as compared to 2023.
 
Several top crop advisors point out that the 2024 national and statewide average corn and soybean yields are very hard to predict, due to the wide variability in crop conditions in the Midwest. Several portions of Southern Minnesota and Northwest Iowa were impacted by excessive rainfall and poor growing conditions early in the growing season. We probably will not know the full impact on the final yield results until harvest is completed. Areas of the Midwest that were not impacted by adverse weather earlier in the growing season and continue to receive frequent rainfall events during August could actually see a boost final yield results. There could be some concern in Minnesota, Northwest Iowa, North Dakota, and Wisconsin with getting the later planted crops and the replanted soybeans mature, especially if the first frost occurs in September. 
 
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

The USDA Crop Report that was released on August 12 projects record average U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2024. The projected 2024 national average yield levels for both corn and soybeans were increased from the USDA yield estimates a month ago in July. The August yield and production estimates were based on crop conditions as of August 1 that resulted from a National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) survey of U.S. crop producers in early August. The USDA estimated national average yields for both corn and soybeans, as well as the total 2024 production and 2024-25 ending stocks for soybeans, were above the average estimates of grain marketing analysts. The 2024 USDA projections for corn production was very similar to the average estimates by the analysts, while the USDA estimates for corn ending stocks were slightly lower than the grain industry estimates.
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2024 total U.S. corn production at 15.147 billion bushels, which would be a slight decrease of about one percent from the 2023 record production level of just over 15.3 billion bushels. The 2024 projected U.S. corn production compares to other recent corn production levels of 13.6 billion bushels in 2022, 15.1 billion bushels in 2021, 14.1 billion bushels in 2020, and 13.6 billion bushels in 2019. USDA is estimating the total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain in 2024 at 82.7 million acres, which was reduced from 83.4 million acres in the July report. This compares to final harvested acreage of 86.5 million acres in 2023 and 78.7 million acres in 2022.
The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2024 at the record level of 183.1 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 2.1 bushels per acre from the NASS yield estimate in July. The 2024 yield projection compares to the current record corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and other recent average yields 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022, 176.7 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019, and 176.4 bushels per acre in 2018. There are widespread differences in 2024 corn yield estimates across the U.S., ranging from excellent to greatly reduced yields, depending on where farms are located.
USDA is estimating record 2024 corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. USDA is also projecting increased corn yields in 2024 compared to 2023 yields in North Dakota and Missouri, while the average yield in Minnesota is expected to stay the same as last year and the Ohio average yield is expected to decline from the 2023 level. USDA projects Minnesota’s 2024 average corn yield at 185 bushels per acre, which is the same as 2023 and compares to other recent average corn yields of 195 bushels per acre in 2022, 178 bushels per acre in 2021, 192 bushels per acre in 2020, and 173 bushels per acre in 2019. The State record corn yield remains at 197 bushels per acre in 2017. There is a wide range of expected corn yields across Minnesota depending on timely planting, favorable growing conditions, and crop loss from the excessive rainfall in June.
USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2024 average corn yield at the record level of 209 bushel per acre, which compares to 201 bushels per acre in 2023, 200 bushels per acre in 2022, and the current record yield of 205 bushels per acre in 2021. Illinois is forecast to have a record statewide yield of 225 bushels per acre in 2024, which compares to 206 bushels per acre in 2023 and 214 bushels per acre in 2022. The projected record corn yield in Indiana for 2024 is at 207 bushels per acre, which compares to 203 bushels per acre in 2023 and 190 bushels per acre in 2022.
2024 corn yield projections for other states include Nebraska at 194 bushels per acre compared to 182 bushels per acre in 2023, South Dakota at 162 bushels per acre compared to 152 bushels per acre in 2023, North Dakota at 144 bushels per acre compared to 141 bushels per acre in 2023, and Wisconsin at 183 bushels per acre compared to 176 bushels per acre in 2023. The estimated 2024 corn yield in Ohio is 188 bushels per acre, which would be a 5 percent decline from the final 2023 yield of 198 bushels per acre. Other States with significant estimated increases in 2023 corn yields compared to a year ago include Missouri, Kansas, and Texas.
The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2024 U.S. soybean production at the record level of just over 4.59 billion bushels, which would be up 10 percent from the 2023 final production of slightly over 4.16 billion bushels. The current record soybean production was 4.54 billion bushels in 2018. USDA increased the estimated 2024 harvested soybean acreage to 86.3 million acres, which was increased by 1 million acres from the July USDA estimate and compares to 82.4 million acres in 2023. USDA is projecting the 2024 U.S. average soybean yield at the record level of 53.3 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 1.2 bushels per acre from the July estimate. The 2024 projected soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, and 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020. The current record U.S. soybean yield is 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016.
The recent USDA report lists several Midwestern States that are likely to have a record statewide soybean yield in 2024, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The estimated 2024 soybean yield in Illinois is 66 bushels per acre compared to 63 bushels per acre in 2022, Indiana at 62 bushels per acre compared to 61 bushels per acre in 2023; and Ohio at 59 bushels per acre compared to 58 bushels per acre in 2023. Iowa’s 2024 soybean yield is estimated at 61 bushels per acre, compared to 58 bushels per acre in 2023 and just below the statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021.
Soybean yield estimates for 2024 are also expected to increase in Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, North and South Dakota. Minnesota’s 2024 average soybean yield is estimated at 49 bushels per acre, which compares to 48 bushels per acre in 2023, 50 bushels per acre in 2022, and 47 bushels per acre in 2021. The statewide record soybean yield was 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected 2024 average soybean yields in other States include Nebraska at 59 bushels per acre compared to 51.5 bushels per acre in 2023, Wisconsin at 53 bushels per acre compared to 51 bushels per acre in 2023, North Dakota at 36 bushels per acre compared to 35.5 bushels per acre in 2023, and South Dakota at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 44 bushels per acre in 2023.
AUGUST 12 WASDE REPORT
The updated USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2024 estimated U.S. corn production of 15.14 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 82.7 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 183.1 bushels per acre. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks are now projected at just under 2.1 billion bushels, which was a decline of 24 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2023-24 are estimated at just over 1.86 billion bushels, which compares to other recent carryout levels of 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22.
USDA is projecting the average on-farm corn price for the 2024-25 marketing year, which extends from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025, at $4.20 per bushel, which was decreased by $.10 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2023-24 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2024, is now estimated at $4.65 per bushel. These estimates compare to recent national average prices of $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20. The closing December corn futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the August 12 report was $4.01 per bushel, which compares to $4.76 per bushel in 2023 and $6.96 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.
The recent WASDE report projected the 2024 U.S. soybean production level at just under 4.6 billion bushels, based on 86.3 million harvested acres and an estimated U.S. soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre. The 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 560 million bushels, which was an increase of 125 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2023-24 soybean ending stocks are projected at 345 million bushels. USDA is now projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing year at $10.80 per bushel and at $12.50 per bushel for the 2023-24 marketing year. This compares to recent national average prices of $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20. The closing November soybean futures price on the CBOT on August 12 report was $9.81 per bushel, which compares to $13.07 per bushel in 2023 and $14.88 per bushel in 2022 following the release of the August WASDE report.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

Every year many key agriculture issues are discussed as part of the candidate forums and feature forums that are held at Farmfest in early August. Candidate forums have been part of Farmfest in every even numbered year since 1990. In 2024, a U.S. Senate candidate forum and two and Congressional candidate forums were held, as well as a special Farm Bill forum, an ag outlook forum, and a discussion on the downturn in the farm economy. The candidate forums included all of the major candidates in Minnesota running for the various elected offices and the other feature forums included several national and state agricultural leaders discussing many of the key issues affecting farm families and rural communities in Minnesota and the Midwest.
 
Following are some of the main issues that were discussed during the Farmfest forums in 2024:

• Passing a New Farm Bill --- The inability of Congress to pass a new Farm Bill and provisions in the next Farm Bill were major discussion points in all of the candidate forums, along with the feature forum at Farmfest that focused on the new Farm Bill. The U.S. House Agriculture passed its version of a new Farm Bill earlier this year; however, the bill has not been voted on yet by the entire U.S. House of Representatives. The U.S. Senate has not yet released any version of a new Farm Bill.

 
Many of the candidates from both major political parties that participated in the Farmfest forums agreed on many aspects of the next Farm Bill, especially as it related to enhancing and improving the “safety net” programs for farmers. Many of the agriculture leaders that participated in the forums, as well as several of the candidates, proposed increasing crop reference prices, enhancing crop insurance options, and improving risk protection opportunities for livestock producers and farmers that raise specialty crops.
 
There was also considerable discussion regarding the importance of conservation programs and how those programs can enhance ongoing carbon sequestration efforts in the U.S. There was general agreement that the nutrition title of the Farm Bill, which accounts for over 80 percent of the annual Farm Bill spending, should not be separated from the Farm Bill. There was not a lot of discussion about specific provisions in the nutrition title. There was discussion during the Farmfest forums regarding several other programs and provisions that are part of the existing titles in the Farm Bill, including rural development, ag research and extension, trade promotion, livestock disease mitigation, beginning farmer loans, and hemp production.     
 
The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023; however, the current Farm Bill was extended until September 30, 2024. Now the question is: “Will we get a new Farm Bill passed in time for the 2025 growing season in the Midwest, or will we have another one-year extension until September 30, 2025 ?” Some of the candidates and other ag leaders that participated in the Farmfest forums were optimistic that a Farm Bill might be completed during “lame-duck” congressional session following the 2024 election. However, others pointed to the rather large cost of the Farm Bill and the partisan political divide in the U.S. as reasons that a new Farm Bill is not likely to pass in late 2024 or early 2025, with another one-year extension of the current Farm Bill being more likely.
 

• Downturn in the Farm Economy --- Whether it was comments by U.S. Senate or Congressional candidates, or insights from other Farmfest forum panel members, the continued tight margins and low profitability in farming was a big topic of discussion. Profit margins in crop production have been quite tight in the past two years, which could put some farm operations at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates have increased substantially in 2023 and 2024, while crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. For farm operators that experienced crop losses in 2023, or may have a crop loss in 2024 due to weather issues, the financial situation may be even more severe. 

The struggling profit margins for crop producers was linked into Farm Bill discussions surrounding the need for improved risk management measures in the new Farm Bill. Much of the livestock sector has not fared much better from a profitability standpoint in the past couple of years. Iowa and Minnesota are the top two swine production states in the U.S. and most swine producers have had very low or negative profit margins in the past two years.
 
Dairy profit margins have improved in recent months; however, that followed a long period of very low profit margins that forced several dairy farmers to discontinue operation. Payments through the dairy margin coverage (DMC) program in the past two years helped e prevent even more small and medium sized dairy farms from being forced to exit the industry. The DMC program is authorized as part of the Farm Bill. Dairy and poultry producers have also been dealing with the impacts of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in certain areas of the U.S. Cattle feedlot operators and beef cow/calf producers have experienced the best profit margins in the U.S. livestock sector in the past couple of years.
 

• Importance of Ag Exports and Trade Agreements --- Most of the U.S. Senate and congressional candidates that participated in the Farmfest forums discussed the importance of ag exports and having strong trade agreements. However, some expressed concern about the potential for future trade disputes between the United States and China, as well as the lack of new trade agreements with other countries. There was also discussion regarding the fairness of current trade agreements with China and other countries, as well as with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement. China, Canada and Mexico are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports.

 

• Future of the Renewable Fuels Industry --- Many farm operators, ag and community leaders, and investors in renewable energy plants, are concerned about government policies related to the development and use of ethanol and other biofuels. Many States in the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, have a very strong and well-established corn-based ethanol industry, which utilizes over 35 percent of the corn produced each year in the United States. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been slow to implement E-15 as an ethanol fuel blend for wide-scale use in the U.S. The renewable diesel industry in the U.S. has also been growing significantly in recent years, which has become more important for soybean usage in the past few of years.

 
Many leaders point to “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers, some feedstock for SAF production is being imported from other countries. In addition to the direct benefits to farmers, renewable energy plants have become cornerstones in rural communities by providing jobs, adding to the local tax base, and enhancing the overall economic vitality of the communities.
 
The candidates and ag leaders that participated in the Farmfest forums in 2024 discussed numerous other issues, programs and efforts that affect rural businesses, families, and communities in a variety of ways. This included the potential for disaster assistance for farmers and businesses impacted by 2024 weather events, dealing with the economic challenges currently being experienced by rural businesses, family health care access and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of greater Minnesota, infrastructure needs, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The 2024 candidate forums and the other Farmfest forums can be viewed at: https://www.ideaggroup.com/farmfest.     
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

​2024 will mark the thirty-fourth anniversary of political candidate forums at Farmfest. In every even numbered year since 1990, Minnesota Farmfest has featured candidate forums for the Minnesota primary election races for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Congressional seats. Over the years, these candidate forums have been very interesting and at times have helped give some direction to certain political campaigns. The timing of the forums is very important, as Farmfest is always held during the first full week of August, meaning that the forums usually occur the week before the Minnesota primary election on the second Tuesday of August. The Farmfest candidate forums have become a “must participate” event over the years for major political candidates of all parties for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Congressional seats.
 
Three candidate forums are scheduled during Farmfest in 2024 on August 6, 7 and 8 at the Gillfillan Estate near Redwood Falls, Minn. Several other interesting forums on timely agricultural topics have also been planned during the three-day event. Farmfest is coordinated by IDEAg Group, LLC, a subsidiary of American Farm Bureau Federation.
Tuesday, Aug. 6 will feature two “Congressional Candidate Forums” in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center. The candidates in Minnesota’s first and second congressional districts will participate in a Congressional Candidate Forum on Tuesday, August 6, at 10:30 a.m. A second Congressional Candidate Forum will be held that same day at 1:15 p.m. for the candidates in Minnesota’s sixth, seventh and eighth congressional districts. All of the current members of Congress in those congressional districts and several of their challengers will be participating in these forums.
 
A special “U.S. Senate Candidate Forum” will be held on Wednesday, August 7, at 10:30 a.m. in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center, featuring U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and several other candidates for U.S. Senate in Minnesota. The candidate forums are sponsored by Minnesota Farm Bureau.
 
The focus and subject matter for the candidate forums has always been on agriculture and rural issues. Questions will be asked by moderators that work in ag media, based on input received from leaders in various agriculture and rural organizations. Following are the key topics that this year’s candidate forums will focus on:

• Passing a New Farm Bill

Ø  Upgrades needed in the farm “safety-net” programs in the Farm Bill.
Ø  Protecting conservation programs and funding in the Farm Bill.
Ø  Appropriate adjustments, if any, to food and nutrition programs.
Ø  Livestock, trade, rural development, research, and other Farm Bill titles.
Ø  The likelihood of passing a New Farm Bill by the end of 2024 ?

• Renewable Energy

Ø  Where do ethanol and renewable diesel fuel fit into long-term U.S. energy policy ?
Ø  Changes needed in the GREET model for sustainable aviation fuel.

• Other Topics

Ø  Disaster assistance for 2024 weather-related issues on farms and ranches.
Ø  Carbon sequestration efforts and “climate-smart” agriculture initiatives in the ag industry.
Ø  Balancing immigration policy with the labor shortages in ag production and processing.
Ø  WOTUS, feedlot regulations, proposition 12, and other federal regulatory issues.  
Ø  Assisting new and emerging farmers and start-up agri-businesses.
 
Another highlight in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center will be a forum titled: “Farm Bill Fatigue …... Will Congress Pass a Farm Bill ?” on Wednesday, Aug. 7 at 1:30 p.m. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith, who serves on the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, will be joined on the panel by five national ag organization leaders. The panel will include four Presidents of national agricultural organizations, including Zippy Duvall, American Farm Bureau President, Rob Larew, National Farmers Union President, Harold Wolle, National Corn Growers Council President, and Lori Stevermer, National Pork Producers Council President, as well as George Goblish, American Soybean Growers Association Board Member.
 
Critical ag industry and economic sessions will kick-start the programming each morning in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center. On Tuesday, August 6 at 9:30 a.m. a forum titled: “Tips for Surviving in a Down Ag Economy” will be held. This forum will feature Bob Craven from the University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management, Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Economist, and Todd Stencel, South Central College Farm Business Management Instructor.
 
The Farmfest “Ag Outlook Forum” is scheduled for Wednesday, August 7 at 9:00 am, featuring a top-notch list of presenters. The event will kick-off with comments by Xochiti Torres Small, USDA Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. The Outlook Forum will feature short presentations by Robert Bonnie, USDA Undersecretary of Agriculture, Thom Peterson, Minnesota Commissioner of Agriculture, Ryan Yates, Managing Director of Government Affairs with American Farm Bureau, Brian Werner, Minnesota Biofuels Director, Mark Schultz, Grain Marketing Analyst with Northstar Commodities, and John Zimmerman, Chairman of the National Turkey Federation.
 
Thursday, August 8 will feature events recognizing farm families and women farmers in the Wick Building Farmfest Center. The 2024 Farmfest “Women in Ag Event” will be held at 10:45 a.m., which will include recognizing the “2024 Farmfest Woman Farmer of the Year”. The University of Minnesota “Farm Family of the Year” program, which will be held at 1:15 p.m. on August 8, will recognize over 80 county farm families of the year from throughout Minnesota. Earlier that same day, the University of Minnesota will host a “Manure Applicator Certification Program”, starting at 8:00 a.m.
 
The Livestock Tent, located near the north end of the Farmfest site, will host some very timely panel discussions on the first two days of the event. The focus on Tuesday, August 6 at 11:15 a.m. will be an update on the outbreak and management of the H5N1 (highly pathogenic avian influenza) in the U.S. and Minnesota. Panel members will include Brian Hoefs, State Veterinarian with the MN Board of Animal Health, Thom Peterson, MN Commissioner of Agriculture, Lucas Sjostrom, Executive Director of MN Milk, and Bernt Nelson, with American Farm Bureau.
 
Proposition 12, proposed changes to Minnesota feedlot regulations, and other livestock policy issues will be the focus of the forum in the Livestock Tent on Wednesday, August 7 at 11:15 a.m. Panel members include Dan Glessing, MN Farm Bureau President, Mike Landuyt, Past President of the MN State Cattleman’s Assn., Lauren Servick, Pubic Policy Director with MN Pork, and Ryan Yates, with American Farm Bureau. Cattlemen and women are also invited to obtain their Beef Quality Assurance Certification during a session in the Livestock Tent on Thursday, August 8 at 10:00 a.m., which is being presented by the Minnesota Beef Council.
 
For more information on the Farmfest forum panels, livestreaming of the forums, Farmfest exhibitors, food vendors, and other information, visit www.farmfest.com. For more details on speakers or content in the Farmfest forums, contact Kent Thiesse, Farmfest Forum Coordinator at (507) 381-7960.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

​2024 will mark the thirty-fourth anniversary of political candidate forums at Farmfest. In every even numbered year since 1990, Minnesota Farmfest has featured candidate forums for the Minnesota primary election races for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Congressional seats. Over the years, these candidate forums have been very interesting and at times have helped give some direction to certain political campaigns. The timing of the forums is very important, as Farmfest is always held during the first full week of August, meaning that the forums usually occur the week before the Minnesota primary election on the second Tuesday of August. The Farmfest candidate forums have become a “must participate” event over the years for major political candidates of all parties for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Congressional seats.
 
Three candidate forums are scheduled during Farmfest in 2024 on August 6, 7 and 8 at the Gillfillan Estate near Redwood Falls, Minn. Several other interesting forums on timely agricultural topics have also been planned during the three-day event. Farmfest is coordinated by IDEAg Group, LLC, a subsidiary of American Farm Bureau Federation.
Tuesday, Aug. 6 will feature two “Congressional Candidate Forums” in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center. The candidates in Minnesota’s first and second congressional districts will participate in a Congressional Candidate Forum on Tuesday, August 6, at 10:30 a.m. A second Congressional Candidate Forum will be held that same day at 1:15 p.m. for the candidates in Minnesota’s sixth, seventh and eighth congressional districts. All of the current members of Congress in those congressional districts and several of their challengers will be participating in these forums.
 
A special “U.S. Senate Candidate Forum” will be held on Wednesday, August 7, at 10:30 a.m. in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center, featuring U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and several other candidates for U.S. Senate in Minnesota. The candidate forums are sponsored by Minnesota Farm Bureau.
 
The focus and subject matter for the candidate forums has always been on agriculture and rural issues. Questions will be asked by moderators that work in ag media, based on input received from leaders in various agriculture and rural organizations. Following are the key topics that this year’s candidate forums will focus on:

• Passing a New Farm Bill

Ø  Upgrades needed in the farm “safety-net” programs in the Farm Bill.
Ø  Protecting conservation programs and funding in the Farm Bill.
Ø  Appropriate adjustments, if any, to food and nutrition programs.
Ø  Livestock, trade, rural development, research, and other Farm Bill titles.
Ø  The likelihood of passing a New Farm Bill by the end of 2024 ?

• Renewable Energy

Ø  Where do ethanol and renewable diesel fuel fit into long-term U.S. energy policy ?
Ø  Changes needed in the GREET model for sustainable aviation fuel.

• Other Topics

Ø  Disaster assistance for 2024 weather-related issues on farms and ranches.
Ø  Carbon sequestration efforts and “climate-smart” agriculture initiatives in the ag industry.
Ø  Balancing immigration policy with the labor shortages in ag production and processing.
Ø  WOTUS, feedlot regulations, proposition 12, and other federal regulatory issues.  
Ø  Assisting new and emerging farmers and start-up agri-businesses.
 
Another highlight in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center will be a forum titled: “Farm Bill Fatigue …... Will Congress Pass a Farm Bill ?” on Wednesday, Aug. 7 at 1:30 p.m. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith, who serves on the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, will be joined on the panel by five national ag organization leaders. The panel will include four Presidents of national agricultural organizations, including Zippy Duvall, American Farm Bureau President, Rob Larew, National Farmers Union President, Harold Wolle, National Corn Growers Council President, and Lori Stevermer, National Pork Producers Council President, as well as George Goblish, American Soybean Growers Association Board Member.
 
Critical ag industry and economic sessions will kick-start the programming each morning in the Wick Buildings Farmfest Center. On Tuesday, August 6 at 9:30 a.m. a forum titled: “Tips for Surviving in a Down Ag Economy” will be held. This forum will feature Bob Craven from the University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management, Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Economist, and Todd Stencel, South Central College Farm Business Management Instructor.
 
The Farmfest “Ag Outlook Forum” is scheduled for Wednesday, August 7 at 9:00 am, featuring a top-notch list of presenters. The event will kick-off with comments by Xochiti Torres Small, USDA Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. The Outlook Forum will feature short presentations by Robert Bonnie, USDA Undersecretary of Agriculture, Thom Peterson, Minnesota Commissioner of Agriculture, Ryan Yates, Managing Director of Government Affairs with American Farm Bureau, Brian Werner, Minnesota Biofuels Director, Mark Schultz, Grain Marketing Analyst with Northstar Commodities, and John Zimmerman, Chairman of the National Turkey Federation.
 
Thursday, August 8 will feature events recognizing farm families and women farmers in the Wick Building Farmfest Center. The 2024 Farmfest “Women in Ag Event” will be held at 10:45 a.m., which will include recognizing the “2024 Farmfest Woman Farmer of the Year”. The University of Minnesota “Farm Family of the Year” program, which will be held at 1:15 p.m. on August 8, will recognize over 80 county farm families of the year from throughout Minnesota. Earlier that same day, the University of Minnesota will host a “Manure Applicator Certification Program”, starting at 8:00 a.m.
 
The Livestock Tent, located near the north end of the Farmfest site, will host some very timely panel discussions on the first two days of the event. The focus on Tuesday, August 6 at 11:15 a.m. will be an update on the outbreak and management of the H5N1 (highly pathogenic avian influenza) in the U.S. and Minnesota. Panel members will include Brian Hoefs, State Veterinarian with the MN Board of Animal Health, Thom Peterson, MN Commissioner of Agriculture, Lucas Sjostrom, Executive Director of MN Milk, and Bernt Nelson, with American Farm Bureau.
 
Proposition 12, proposed changes to Minnesota feedlot regulations, and other livestock policy issues will be the focus of the forum in the Livestock Tent on Wednesday, August 7 at 11:15 a.m. Panel members include Dan Glessing, MN Farm Bureau President, Mike Landuyt, Past President of the MN State Cattleman’s Assn., Lauren Servick, Pubic Policy Director with MN Pork, and Ryan Yates, with American Farm Bureau. Cattlemen and women are also invited to obtain their Beef Quality Assurance Certification during a session in the Livestock Tent on Thursday, August 8 at 10:00 a.m., which is being presented by the Minnesota Beef Council.
 
For more information on the Farmfest forum panels, livestreaming of the forums, Farmfest exhibitors, food vendors, and other information, visit www.farmfest.com. For more details on speakers or content in the Farmfest forums, contact Kent Thiesse, Farmfest Forum Coordinator at (507) 381-7960.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

​The excessive rainfall and flooding during June in many portions of the Upper Midwest have created some interesting and in some cases very difficult decisions for several farm operators across the region. A widespread area of Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa and Eastern South Dakota received 12-16 inches of rain or more during the month of June, which followed more than double the normal precipitation in May. This resulted in flash flooding near rivers and streams and an immense amount of standing water in many areas. The result has been considerable drown-out damage to crops and shallow root systems for crops, as well as loss of nitrogen and other nutrients for the corn crop.
 
By early July, fields in many areas for farmers to potentially consider replanting some early maturing varieties of soybeans into some of the drown-out areas. Most of the replanting occurred into existing soybean fields that had drown-out damage. Very little replanting occurred on drown-out areas in existing corn fields. Realistically, the best that farmers in the Upper Midwest can hope for with soybeans planted in early-to-mid July is probably a yield of 25-30 bushels per acre, compared to a normal yield of 60 bushels per acre or more. This assumes favorable growing conditions from now until September, as well as the first killing frost not occurring until mid-October. If the replanted soybeans do not produce a crop that can be harvested as grain, they still potentially can make a good cover crop for the drown-out areas. Some farmers were able to get some reimbursement through replant clauses in their crop insurance policies to help cover their replant clauses.
 
Probably the most difficult decisions that farmers in the Upper Midwest have been facing in mid-July are related to the remaining corn crop in the fields that did not drown-out. In many areas, large segments of corn fields have short, yellowish corn with shallow root systems that shows signs of deficiencies of nitrogen and other nutrients. In some cases, portions of these fields may need supplemental applications of nitrogen fertilizer. In addition, wet field conditions can lead to higher incidences of certain corn diseases, which can require fungicide applications.
 
If the remaining corn crop looked fairly viable and we had projected corn harvest prices above $5.00 per bushel, many farmers would probably make the investment into the extra nitrogen fertilizer or applying the fungicide to control the potential corn diseases. However, in many of the worst corn fields in Southern Minnesota, Northwest Iowa, and Southeast South Dakota, the remaining corn crop does not appear to have significant yield potential and the corn harvest price at local grain markets is below $4.00 per bushel. If farmers to choose to apply 30 pounds of extra nitrogen with some sulfur added, the approximate cost would be an estimated $30-$40 per acre. The cost of treating corn with fungicide would likely be an estimated $25-$30 per acre.
 
“Human nature” for most farmers is to try and get the highest corn yield that is reasonably possible, which in a year such as this would probably mean applying the extra nitrogen fertilizer and treating the corn with fungicide, if necessary. However, there is also the economic side of this decision. If a crop producer already feels that his 2024 corn crop may qualify for crop insurance indemnity payments, does it make sense to continue to put discretionary input costs into that crop to get a few more bushels of crop yield ? That decision probably varies from farm-to-farm and field-to-field, so more in-depth analysis may be required before a decision is made.
 
Most farmers carry revenue protection (RP) federal crop insurance policies, which are based on a combination of yield and price. The crop insurance guarantee for a RP policy is the APH yield on a farm unit times the Spring price or base price for a crop times the level of coverage. The 2024 Spring price for corn was $4.66 per bushel, so if a farm had a 200 bushel per acre APH yield with an 85% RP policy, the insurance guarantee would be $792 per acre (200 bu./A. x $4.66/bu. x .85). The harvest value of the crop is the actual yield times the final harvest price for corn, which is the average price of CBOT December corn futures during the month of October.
As of July 19, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures price was $4.06 per bushel. If that were the final crop insurance harvest price, crop insurance indemnity payments on a RP policy in corn would begin with a yield loss of approximately 2-3 percent with an 85% RP policy and about 9 percent with an 80% RP policy. With a 200 bushel per acre APH yield, that means that at a $4.06 per bushel harvest price crop insurance indemnity payments would be initiated at a final corn yield below 195 bushels per acre and below 183 bushels per acre with an 80% RP policy. Farmers not only face the difficulty of realistically evaluating the yield potential of the corn remaining in field, but also projecting what likely direction is of the CBOT December corn futures price between now and November. In addition, they need to factor any drown-out acres into the final yield estimates.
 
Another factor that enters into this decision is whether the crop insurance policy insuring the corn is insured under “enterprise units” or “optional units”. Enterprise units combine all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit, while optional units allow producers to insure crops separately in each field within a township section. Enterprise units usually have considerably lower premium costs compared to optional units; however, enterprise units are based on larger coverage areas that can make it more difficult to cover crop damage that affect individual farm units. In many instances, corn producers that have insured their crop with optional units will likely be in a better position to fine-tune their decisions regarding added nitrogen or fungicide applications to individual corn fields.
 
If a farm operator has already determined that an individual field in the case of optional unit insurance coverage or all of the corn acres in a county in the case of enterprise units will likely qualify for 2024 crop insurance indemnity payments, then they need to evaluate the potential economic benefits how investing more dollars into crop inputs this growing season. For example, Using the 200 bu./A APH yield with 85% RP policy and a crop insurance harvest price of $4.10 per bushel, a farmer with a final yield of 150 bushels per acre would collect an estimated crop insurance indemnity payment of $177 per acre. If that farmer paid the cost for the extra nitrogen fertilizer and/or fungicide and increased the final corn yield to 180 bushels per acre, the crop insurance indemnity payment would be reduced to about $54 per acre, the added crop value at $3.80 per bushel times 30 bu./A would be $114 per acre, resulting in a total of approximately $168/A. Once the cost of the added nitrogen and fungicide is included, the “net result” would probably close to $125/A., as compared to the insurance indemnity payment without the expense of the added inputs.
 
“One solution doesn’t fit everyone” and every situation is different. The first step is to make a realistic yield estimate of corn field in the case of optional units or all corn acres in a county in the case of enterprise units, factoring in any drown-out or acres with zero production potential. Then find out the cost of any crop inputs and what estimate might be for yield enhancement. A reputable crop consultant or agronomist can assist with evaluating the corn yield potential and benefits from added crop inputs. The next step is to consult with the crop insurance agent regarding the crop insurance coverage level on the 2024 corn crop and what the potential crop insurance indemnity payments would be at various final harvest price levels.
 
It is also good to review your situation with your ag lender before you make the added investment into the corn crop in order to have their input as to how that decision may affect your financial situation with the lending institution. Ultimately, the final decision regarding the investment into more crop inputs for the 2024 corn crop comes down those involved in the business management of the farm operation. If both a husband and wife are involved, or if there are several family members involved, discuss and analyze the situation thoroughly, weighing all the input that was received and the economic analysis that was done. These are challenging mental decisions for farmers, so make it a group decision rather than having the stress of the decision on one individual.
 
Kent Thiesse has prepared an information sheet titled: “2024 Crop Insurance Payment Potential”. To receive a copy, please send an email to: [email protected]
 
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960;  E-mail - [email protected] 

​The late June USDA Acreage Report is always highly anticipated, because it becomes the first “hard data” after the March USDA Plantings Intentions Report to give an indication of crop production levels for a given growing season. Many times, the June USDA Report can have a big impact on grain market trends, either upwards or downwards, and 2024 is no exception. The crop acreage report was initially viewed “bearish” for corn markets and fairly neutral for soybeans. Based on the June 28th report, farmers planted more acres of corn and less acres of soybeans in 2024 than was projected in the March 30 Planting Intentions Report. USDA surveyed more than 70,000 agricultural producers during the first two weeks of June to gather information for the June 28th report. However, it should be noted that as of early June there was an estimated 3.3 million acres of corn and 12.8 million acres of soybeans remaining to be planted. Crop acreage numbers will be adjusted in future months following the producer acreage reports to Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices in July.
 
The biggest surprise in the June 28th USDA Acreage Report was the estimate of 91.5 million planted corn acres planted in the U.S. in 2024. This was an increase of over 1.4 million planted acres from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report and was over 1.1 million acres above the estimates of grain marketing analysts. The 2024 corn acreage estimate was a decrease of 3 percent from the 2023 planted corn acres of 94.6 million acres. The estimated 2024 corn acreage also compares to 88.6 million acres in 2022, 93.6 million acres in 2021, 90.8 million acres in 2020, 89.7 million acres in 2019, and 89.1 million acres in 2018. The 2024 corn acreage was increased above the March planting intentions in 6 States, including increases of 600,000 acres in Kansas, 300,000 acres in Iowa, 250,000 acres in Nebraska, 200,000 acres in Minnesota, and 100,000 acres in both Ohio and South Dakota.
 
Based on the June 28th Report, 2024 corn acreage is expected to decrease in 9 of the 12 primary corn producing States, increase in 2 States, and stay the same in 1 State, as compared to 2023 acreage. Following is the estimated 2024 corn acreage in selected Upper Midwest States (with the change from 2023): Iowa at 13.1 million acres (same as 2023); Illinois at 10.9 million acres (down 300,000 acres); Nebraska at 10.1 million acres (up 150,000 acres); Minnesota at 8.1 million acres (down 500,000 acres); Kansas at 6.3 million acres (up 550,000 acres); South Dakota at 6.1 million acres (down 200,000 acres); Indiana at 5.1 million acres (down 350,000 acres); North Dakota at 3.8 million acres (down 250,000 acres); Wisconsin at 3.7 million acres (down 300,000 acres); Missouri at 3.5 million acres (down 350,000 acres); and Ohio at 3.4 million acres (down 200,000 acres).
 
The June 28th USDA Report estimated that 86.1 million acres of soybean acres will be planted in 2024 in the U.S., which was a decrease of 410,000 acres from the March 1st USDA acreage estimate and would be over 650,00 acres below the average estimates of grain marketing analysts. The 2024 U.S. soybean acreage projection does represent an increase of 3 percent or 2.5 million acres from the 2023 planted acres. The estimated 2024 U.S. soybean acreage compares to other recent acreage levels of 83.6 million acres in 2023, 87.4 million acres in 2022, 87.2 million acres in 2021, 83.1 million acres in 2020, 76.1 million acres in 2019, and 89.2 million acres in 2018. The record U.S. soybean acreage was 90.2 million acres in 2017.
 
The 2024 soybean acreage is expected to increase or remain steady in 24 of the 29 reporting soybean producing States, as compared to 2023 acreage, with only Iowa showing a slight year-to-year decline among major soybean producing States. The estimated 2024 soybean acreage in selected Upper Midwest States (with the change from 2023): Illinois at 10.7 million acres (up 350,000 acres); Iowa at 9.9 million acres (down 50,000 acres); Minnesota at 7.6 million acres (up 250,000 acres); North Dakota at 6.8 million acres (up 600,000 acres); Indiana at 5.75 million acres (up 250,000 acres); Missouri at 5.6 million acres (same as 2023); Nebraska at 5.3 million acres (up 50,000 acres); South Dakota at 5.1 million acres (same as 2023); Ohio at 4.85 million acres (up 100,000 acres); Kansas at 4.55 million acres (up 120,000 on acres); and Wisconsin at 2.15 million acres (up 40,000 acres).
JUNE 28th  QUARTERLY  GRAIN  STOCKS  SUMMARY
The USDA Quarterly Grain Socks Report was also released on June 28, which showed the highest inventory of corn stored on farms since 1988. Following is a brief summary of the June 28th Grain Stocks Report:
Corn --- The June 28th report indicated a total U.S. corn inventory of just over 4.99 billion bushels on June 1, 2024, which represented an increase of about 22 percent from the corn inventory a year ago on June 1. Approximately 60 percent of the total U.S. corn inventory, or just over 3 billion bushels, was in on-farm storage on June 1, which is up 37 percent from last year at this time. The level of on-farm corn inventories on June 1st included 570 million bushels in Iowa, 460 million bushels in Minnesota, 445 million bushels in Illinois, 250 million bushels in Nebraska, 225 million bushels in South Dakota, 205 million bushels in Indiana, 135 million bushels in Missouri, and 120 million bushels in North Dakota, all of which are well above comparable on-farm inventories in recent years. The June 28th report implied that the estimated total U.S. corn usage from March 1 to May 31 was 3.36 billion bushels, which compares to 3.29 billion bushels during that same time period in 2023.
 
Soybeans --- The Grain Stocks Report showed a total of 970 million bushels of soybeans in inventory as of June 1, 2024, which is an increase of 22 percent from a year ago. It was estimated that 466 million bushels of soybeans, were still in on-farm storage on June 1, 2024, which is up 44 percent from a year ago. This included 83 million bushels in Iowa, 68 million bushels in Minnesota, 66 million bushels in Illinois, 39 million bushels in Ohio, 38 million bushels in Indiana, 37 million bushels in South Dakota, 30 million bushels in Missouri, 18.5 million bushels in Nebraska, and 17.5 million bushels in North Dakota. The level of on-farm soybean stocks on June 1st is significantly higher in many States compared to other recent years.  The June 28th report implied that the estimated total U.S. soybean usage from March 1 to May 31 was 875 million bushels, which was down two percent from the same time period a year ago.
 
GRAIN  PRICE  IMPACTS
December corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 13 cents per bushel following the release of the USDA Crop Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports on June 28. The CBOT December corn futures price declined by ten percent or $.47 per bushel during the month of June, which is not a normal early Summer price pattern. This obviously is being driven by the much larger U.S. corn inventory and higher than expected 2024 corn acreage, along with stagnant corn usage and export levels compared to a year ago. The CBOT December corn futures price closed at $4.20 per bushel on June 28. This compares to December CBOT closing futures  prices in recent years following the June USDA reports of $4.95 per bushel in 2023, $6.20 per bushel in 2022, $5.54 per bushel in 2021, $3.50 per bushel in 2020, and $4.31 per bushel in 2019. New crop 2024 corn price bids for harvest delivery have dropped below $4.00 per bushel at many locations in the Upper Midwest.
 
CBOT November soybean futures held firm following the June 28th USDA reports and were trading at $11.04 per bushel. Even though the level of soybean stocks in inventory is up from a year ago, the 2024 estimated soybean acreage came in a bit lower than was anticipated by the grain trade. The $11.04 per bushel on June 28 compares to November CBOT closing futures  prices in recent years following the June USDA reports of $13.43 per bushel in 2023, $14.10 per bushel in 2022, $13.99 per bushel in 2021, and $8.91 per bushel in 2020, and $9.32 per bushel in 2019. New crop 2024 corn price bids for harvest delivery have dropped below $10.50 per bushel at many locations in the Upper Midwest, with slightly higher bids at soybean processing plants.
 
The stagnant or declining cash and forward contract prices for both corn and soybeans during June is limiting opportunities for farmers to sell remaining grain inventories and to forward price some of the expected 2024 corn and soybean production. Unless there are some weather issues later in the growing season that cut into the anticipated 2024 U.S. crop production, it may be difficult to get any significant increases in corn and soybean price levels between now and harvest-time. Farmers with remaining 2023 corn and soybeans to sell will need to watch for some localized short-term rallies in grain markets to liquidate the remaining inventories before harvest.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960;  E-mail - [email protected] 

​Many farmers across the Upper Midwest have been dealing with the impacts of the heavy rains and flooding that have developed in late June. A widespread area of Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa and Eastern South Dakota received 12-16 inches of rain or more during the month of June, which followed more than double the normal precipitation in May. This has resulted in flash flooding near rivers and streams and an immense amount of standing water in many areas. The result has been considerable drown-out damage to crops, some loss of livestock, and some physical damage to buildings and other property on farm sites. The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) has announced that there is some assistance available through USDA
 
Following is some of the assistance that is available through USDA:

• Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) --- The LIP program is available to livestock producers that incur damage to livestock due to the heavy rainfall, flooding, or other natural disasters. This program is intended to aid livestock producers that lost livestock or had livestock sales impacted by the natural disaster. Producers that have livestock-related losses need to submit evidence of the losses to their local FSA office. The deadline to apply for 2024 LIP payments is March 25, 2025. Livestock producers that experience losses related to tornado or strong wind damage should check with their local FSA office for further details on LIP eligibility.

 

• Emergency Livestock Assistance Program (ELAP) --- The ELAP program for livestock, honeybees, and farm-raised fish to provide eligible producers and compensation for feed and grazing losses. To qualify for ELAP, producers are required to complete a notice of loss and a payment application at their local FSA office. The deadline for 2024 ELAP applications at FSA offices is January 30, 2025. There is a separate Tree Assistance Program (TAP) available through FSA offices for orchard owners that had lost or damaged fruit trees.

 

• Emergency Relief Program (ERP) --- USDA has initiated the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) on several occasions in recent years to provide additional assistance to crop producers with extensive crop losses due to natural disasters. One segment of the ERP program provides payments beyond federal crop insurance coverage to eligible producers, while the other segment of ERP is for crops not covered by federal crop insurance. No ERP program has been announced for the 2024 crop year at this point; however, the crop loss data that is gathered from the local FSA offices is important to determine the need for an ERP program. Payments through the ERP program are typically made after the crop year has been completed and all crop insurance claims have been filed.

 

• FSA Low-Interest Loans --- Producers that are in counties with a primary USDA disaster declaration, including contiguous counties, are eligible for emergency loans through local FSA offices to help them recover from physical and production losses due to natural disasters. These loans can be used be used to replace buildings and equipment, for feed and farm input purchases, and for other farm-related expenses. Many times the emergency loans are at lower interest rates than regular loans and can be amortized for more than one year. It is likely that many counties in Minnesota, Iowa, and South Dakota will be included in disaster declarations in the coming weeks, which will make farmers and ranchers in those areas eligible for the FSA emergency loans. Farmers that had damage to grain storage and handling facilities could also utilize the low-interest Farm Storage Facility Loan (FSFL) program to finance repair or replacement costs for those facilities. For more details on the emergency loans and FSFL loans, as well as the loan requirements, producers should contact their local FSA office.
• Report Losses to Local FSA Offices --- The local FSA office is the point site to gather disaster-related information and loss data for USDA to determine the need for additional USDA disaster programs. It also important for farmers to report any lost crop acreage, loss of livestock, and physical damage to property from the heavy rainfall and severe storms to local FSA offices, so that they can do an accurate assessment of the damage and put together a request for disaster assistance.

 
All Farmers need to pay attention to FSA and Crop Insurance Deadlines
Once the crop is planted and we get into mid-Summer, it is easy to overlook some important deadlines at Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices, crop insurance, and other important deadlines. Missing some of these deadlines can be a costly mistake, as many of the program payments and benefits are linked to compliance with these deadlines. Following is a couple of those important deadlines:
 

• FSA Acreage Certification --- The 2024 crop acreage reporting deadline for all Spring planted crops is Monday, July 15 at local FSA offices. Farmers are required to report their 2024 crop acres of corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and other Spring planted crops to FSA offices. This includes crop acreage of hemp and wild rice. The only exception is for crops that were planted after the deadline. In that case, farmers have an additional 15 days to report their crop acreage. Producers also need to report any 2024 prevented planted crop acres to the FSA office by the July 15 deadline. Fall-seeded small grain crops must be reported by November 15, 2024. Farm operators can certify their crop acreage electronically to the FSA office by utilizing “farmers.gov portal”. This FSA portal also allows farmers to have the ability for online farm program enrollment and data submission. For more information on the setting up a FSA portal, farmers should contact their local FSA office or go the FSA website at: https://www.farmers.gov/

 

• Crop Insurance Acreage Reporting Deadline --- The 2024 crop acreage reporting deadline for corn, soybeans, and other Spring planted crops with local crop insurance agents is also Monday, July 15. Farmers are required to report their 2024 crop acres in order to maintain their 2024 crop insurance coverage. This is extremely important in 2024 due to the strong crop insurance guarantees for corn and soybeans, along with the potential for crop production issues in some areas due to late planting, flooding, and other weather-related issues. Similar to FSA, any 2024 prevented planted acres need to be reported for crop insurance purposes, as well as any crop acres that were replanted this year.

 
Farm and Rural Stress Assistance
The combination of the lowest grain prices in the past five years, together with the likely crop loss from the recent flooding and natural disasters, is likely to result in reduced farm income levels for many farmers in 2024. This is likely to increase the mental stress level for many farmers and farm families. There are some good resources available to assist farm and rural families in the Upper Midwest States that have been impacted:

• Minnesota --- The Minnesota Department of Agriculture has rural and mental health assistance resources available through the following:

“Minnesota Farm and Rural Helpline”--- 833-600-2670
Website --- https://www.mda.state.mn.us/about/mnfarmerstress
 

• Iowa --- The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship has rural and mental health assistance resources available through the following:

“Iowa Concern Hotline”--- 1-800-447-1885;  Website --- https://iowaagriculture.gov/
 

• South Dakota --- The South Dakota Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources has rural and mental health assistance resources available at: https://danr.sd.gov/

 
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960;  E-mail - [email protected]