The January USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is often known as being a “market mover”, and the WASDE report released on January 10th did not disappoint. USDA made significant downward adjustments to final 2024 corn and soybean production numbers, based on lowering the final 2024 national average corn yield by 2.1 percent and the average soybean yield by 1.9 percent. The reductions in the corn and soybean supply, together with only minor adjustments in corn and soybean usage, resulted in a significant decline in projected ending stocks for both crops compared to a month earlier. The initial market reaction following this report was an increase in both corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
 
CORN
The updated National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report for 2024 was also released on January 10th. The report estimated the final 2024 U.S. average corn yield at 179.3 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 3.8 bushels per acre from November’s estimate. The 2024 corn yield estimate is still a new record average U.S. corn yield, surpassing the previous record U.S. yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and compares to 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022. The corn yield estimates in the latest NASS report were lowered by 4.9 percent or more in Minnesota, Indiana, and Kansas, compared to the last yield estimate in November. Minnesota is estimated to have a final 2024 average corn yield of 174 bushels, while Iowa is projected to have a final corn yield of 211 bushels per acre. Other estimated average corn yields for 2024 included Illinois at 217 bushels per acre, Indiana at 198 bushels per acre, Ohio at 177 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 188 bushels per acre, Wisconsin at 174 bushels, South Dakota at 164 bushels per acre, and North Dakota at 149 bushels per acre.
 
The latest WASDE report listed the total 2024 U.S. corn production at 14.87 billion bushels, which was lowered from 15.14 billion bushels last month. The 2024 U.S. corn production was below the record level of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023; however, it is still about 1.2 billion bushels above the 2022 corn production level. The latest USDA report put the total demand for corn usage in 2024-25 at just over 15.1 billion bushels, which is a slight increase from 2023-24 corn usage figures. USDA is projecting corn export levels to increase by 158 million bushels in 2024-25, along with slight increases of 21 million bushels in corn used for feed and 22 million bushels in corn processed into ethanol. 
 
USDA is estimating 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which was a decrease of 198 million bushels from the December WASDE report. The estimated 2024-25 ending stocks are 12.6 percent lower than the final ending stocks of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24; however, the current projected carryover exceeds the 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is now estimated at 10.2 percent for 2023-24, which compares to ratios of 11.9 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23, and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. At this point, the projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the relatively high stocks-to-use ratios of 13.7 percent in 2019-20 and 14.6 percent in 2018-19. The anticipated reduction in the available corn supply could offer some potential for short-term rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months.
 
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.25 per bushel, which is an increase of $.15 per bushel from the December estimate. The market year average (MYA) corn and soybean price estimates for 2024-25 are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2024 crop from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent estimated prices for either the 2024 or 2025 calendar year. The projected 2024-25 corn price of $4.25 per bushel compares to a final MYA price of $4.55 for 2023-24 and is a significant decline from the final MYA prices of $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23 and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current projected MYA price is also slightly lower than $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21; however, it far exceeds the national average corn prices of $3.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19, and $3.36 per bushel in 2017-18.
SOYBEANS
The latest NASS report projects the final 2024 U.S. average soybean yield at 50.7 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of one bushel per acre from the November yield estimate. The 2024 yield compares to recent final U.S. average yields of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022 and 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021. Total U.S. soybean production for 2024 is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels, which is an increase of 204 million bushels from the final 2023 production level. The recent WASDE report estimates total soybean demand at 4.349 billion bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year, which is an increase of 244 million bushels from 2023-24 soybean demand levels. Soybean crush levels are expected to increase by 123 million bushels in the current marketing year, while soybean exports are expected to be 130 million bushels higher than 2023-24 levels. Soybean exports in 2024-25 would still be 155 million bushels below 2022-23 export levels. 
 
The latest WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year at 380 million bushels, which was a decrease of 90 million bushels from the December report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are an increase of 38 million bushels from the 2023-24 carryout level of 342 million bushels. The current projected ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21 Current levels are well below ending stocks of  525 million bushels in 2019-20, 913 million bushels in 2018-19, and 438 million bushels in 2017-18.   
 
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is similar to the final ratio of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, but is higher than the ratios of 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22 and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio remains is still considerably lower than soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The reduction in the 2024-25 estimated soybean supply may offer some opportunities for some short-term rallies in cash soybean prices in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop in South America or with the 2025 U.S. soybean crop.
 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level (MYA) soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel, which is unchanged from the December estimate. The estimated 2024-25 average soybean price would be a significant decline from the final soybean MYA prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The 2024-25 MYA price estimate would be comparable to the soybean MYA price of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21; however it would still be considerably higher than the MYA prices of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20 and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19.  
 
Market Reaction to the WASDE Report
Both corn and soybean market prices showed a very positive market response following the release of the latest WASDE report on January 10th. Nearby cash corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 14.5 cents per bushel following the report, closing at a price of $4.70 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 corn crop since late June of 2024. By comparison, nearby corn futures were at $4.59 per bushel in 2024 and $6.70 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The December CBOT corn futures price, which is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 corn crop were up 3.25 cents per bushel at the market closing on January 10th, closing at $4.50 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT corn futures prices were at $4.91 per bushel in 2024 and $6.07 per bushel in 2023 following the WASDE report in January.
 
CBOT cash soybean futures increased by 26.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report, closing at a price of $10.25 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 soybean crop since late October of 2024. The current nearby soybean futures price is well below the CBOT prices $12.40 per bushel in 2024 and $14.87 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The November CBOT soybean futures price that is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 soybean crop was up 17.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report and closed at $10.31 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT soybean futures prices were at $12.04 per bushel in 2024 and $13.97 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report.

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected] 

As we head into 2025, many farm operations are coming off a relatively poor profit year in 2024; with some farmers having very small profit levels last year, while others had extremely poor results in 2024. In all cases, all farm operators continue to face very tight profit margins for crop production in 2025, as compared to a few years ago. During these challenging farm financial times, it is good to plan ahead before meeting with an ag lender for renewal of a farm operating line of credit or for an annual re-view of the farm financial portfolio.
Following are some tips for farm operators to be more proactive, as they are preparing for an annual meeting with their ag lender ……
• Prepare an up-to-date 2024 year-end farm balance sheet (as of 12-31-24 or 1-01-25).
Preparation of an accurate and up-to-date year-end balance sheet is critical to the loan renewal process for any farm operation. Updating the previous year’s balance sheet with current year-end numbers can help expedite the process. If the farm operation is a sole proprietorship, most ag lenders will also want personal asset and liability data included. If it is a partnership or family corporation, most ag lenders will also require personal balance sheets from all partners.
A good year-end balance sheet will include:
• List of accounts receivable as of 12-31-24, which includes whom the money is due from, the dollar amount, and the date it will be received. This includes deferred payments for grain sold in 2024.
• List of accounts payable as of 12-31-24, listing who the money is owed to, the dollar amount, and when payment will be due. Be sure to include any items listed as cur-rent assets where payment is still due, as well as final 2024 land rental payments that were still due as 12-31-24.
• List of 2024 prepaid expenses for both crops and livestock as of 12-31-24, which details the input, amount of the input, and the amount that was prepaid. This is for items where payment has occurred.
• Grain and livestock inventory list as of 12-31-24. The grain inventory should include total bushels of each crop, bushels that are forward priced (date and price for each sale), and any sales plans for the remaining bushels. Livestock inventory should include the number, weight, and any sales information on market or feeder livestock. An updated list and estimated value of breeding livestock should be included as an intermediate asset rather than a current asset.
• CCC loans on 2024 grain that were taken prior to 1-01-25, listing the bushel amount, CCC loan rate, CCC interest rate, CCC loan maturity date, and sales plans for the CCC grain.
• Review the list of farm machinery and equipment, buildings and facilities, and other capital assets, removing any assets that have been sold or removed, and adding any assets that were purchased or acquired during 2024. Farm machinery values should be adjusted to represent current market values.
• Add any land or other long-term assets that were added in 2024 and adjust asset values as necessary (may want to review this with an ag lender).
• List of all other loans and creditors as of 12-31-24, listing the principal balance, interest rate, payment amount, and payment dates. Be sure to include short-term credi-tors for crop and livestock inputs, loans with family members, and CCC loans through FSA offices.
• Prepare a 2024 year-end income and expense statement as of 12-31-24.
The year-end income statement from the previous year should be based on actual sales of grain and livestock during 2024, which will likely include some 2023 inventory that existed at the beginning of the year, as well as any 2024 grain or livestock that was sold during the year. The 2024 expenses would include any accounts payable from the beginning of the year balance sheet that were paid in 2024 and any 2025 prepaid expenses that were paid in 2024, in addition to the other 2024 crop and livestock ex-penses. A preliminary 2024 federal tax return is a good resource to prepare an income statement.
• Prepare a budget-to-actual summary for the previous year (as of 12-31-24).
Once the 2024 income and expense statement has been finalized, and accrual adjustments are made based on the year-end balance sheet, it always good to review the actual year-end financial analysis compared to the budgeted cash flow analysis that was prepared at the beginning of the year. Pay attention to the big differences that exist in crop and livestock income and the various expense items, as well as determine explanations for those differences. Analyze for any potential adjustments that are need-ed for 2025.
• Prepare a preliminary 2025 budget and cash flow analysis.
Preparing an accurate and complete budget and cash flow analysis for 2025 is a very important part of the loan renewal process and can assist with grain marketing deci-sions for the 2025 crop year. A high-quality cash flow analysis will likely include:
•Planned crop and livestock production for the year, including acres of various crops, anticipated production levels, and any current or planned sales of the 2025 produc-tion.
• A grain and livestock marketing plan that includes a list of the amount sold, the contracted price, and the date to be delivered, as well as plans for remaining unpriced grain and livestock inventories.
• A list of planned crop and livestock inputs for 2025, the contracted or planned price of the inputs, and when the expense will be incurred.
• A detailed list of rented farmland for 2025, which includes the name of the farm owner, acres rented, amount of rent (including flexible lease details), and dates when rent payments are due.
• Include income received for accounts receivable on the year-end balance sheet and account for the expenses of any accounts payable at the beginning of the year.
• Include any other farm income (custom work, etc.) and non-farm expenses (family living, personal loans, etc.) that must be accounted for in the cash flow analysis for the farm.
• Provide details of planned 2025 crop insurance coverage, such as updated APH yields, percentage coverage, enterprise versus optional units, and the addition of hail or wind insurance. (Your ag lender may be a good resource for these decisions.)
• Provide a copy of FSA farm program information listing the crop base acres and FSA program yield for each farm unit. Discuss the 2025 farm program choice with your ag lender.
• Include any planned changes or adjustments in the farming operation for 2025 in the cash flow analysis, including farm machinery purchases or sales, adding or selling land or other assets, and any other changes to the farm business, as well as any changes in personal assets or liabilities.
• Once USDA announces details, potential payments for farm economic assistance and disaster assistance could be included. Possible 2024 ARC-CO payment estimates for corn and soybeans, based on final 2024 county yields and 2024 MYA price estimates, could also be included.
It is best to include all partners and family members that are part of the farm operation in the renewal process with an ag lender, so that all key players are “on the same page” with financial decisions affecting the farm business. It is very important to be trustworthy and honest in preparing and sharing financial information with an ag lender to help assure confidence in the accuracy of the financial data. View an ag lender as an informal partner in a farm business, as a good ag lender can be a valuable resource in making management decisions.
Farm operators should expect their ag lenders to be well prepared, trustworthy and honest in financial dealings. It is important to remember that most local ag lenders also face a lot of pressure in the process of renewing farm operating loans and that they need to do their “due diligence” to complete the necessary requirements in the loan renewal process. The documentation that is prepared will likely be reviewed by senior management at a financial institution, as well as be subject to review and au-dits by Federal and State bank examiners. Most ag lenders are part of the local community and want to see farmers have financial success, which is in the best interest of both the farm business and the ag lending institution.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The highly contentious 2024 Election is now history, and we are now moving rapidly forward with a new Administration and several new members of Congress. There will be new leadership in the U.S. Senate and some changes in lead roles on the Congressional Agriculture Committees. There are many key issues and possible policy changes that potentially could affect the agriculture industry, which will likely be addressed by Congress and the White House in the next couple years. However, there are also some concerns and questions with some of these policy initiatives as we move forward.
It appears that Brooke Rollins of Texas will be appointed to lead USDA and serve as the next Secretary of Agriculture. Other nominees by President-Elect Trump that could play a key role in ag and energy policy development include Lee Zeldin, former New York Congressman, as Director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as Secretary of the Interior, Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy, Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative, and Tom Hor-man as the Border Czar. These nominees for leadership roles in the new administration must now be approved by the U.S. Senate after January 1, 2025. The leadership of Federal Departments can have a big impact on how various agriculture, energy, and environmental policies are implemented and administered.
The leadership of key Congressional Committees, such as the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, will have a major influence on future agriculture and energy issues. Republican Senator John Thune from South Dakota, who has strong ties to agriculture and energy policy, will now be the leader of the U.S. Senate. Arkansas Sena-tor John Bozeman will be Chair of the U.S. Senate Ag Committee and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar will be in the Democratic leadership role on the Ag Committee. Republican Congressman G.T. Thompson will continue the Chair the U.S. House Agriculture committee and Minnesota Second District Congresswoman Angie Craig will be the new lead Democrat on the Ag Committee. Both Senator Klobuchar and Congresswoman Craig are well respected by the Minnesota agriculture industry and have a history of working across party lines on ag policy issues. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith (D) will continue to serve on the Senate Ag Committee and First District Congressman Brad Finstad (R) will continue to serve on the House Ag Committee.
Following is some perspective on some of the key agriculture and energy policy issues that are likely to be under consideration during the next session of Congress, or by executive action from the Administration:
• FINALIZING A NEW FARM BILL --- The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023 and was extended for one year; however, it has now expired again and will likely be extended for an additional year until September 30, 2025. The U.S. House Agriculture Committee passed its version of a new Farm Bill in the Spring of 2024; however, the bill has not been voted on by the entire U.S. House of Representatives. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), current Chair of the Senate Agriculture Commit-tee, released a version of a new Farm Bill after the 2024 Election; however, it was not acted on by Congress.
Some members of Congress and many agriculture leaders have proposed increasing crop reference prices, enhancing crop insurance options, and improving risk pro-tection opportunities for livestock producers and farmers that raise specialty crops. There has also considerable discussion regarding the importance of conservation programs and how those programs can enhance ongoing carbon sequestration efforts. Most members of both political parties agree that the nutrition title of the Farm Bill, which accounts for over 80 percent of the annual Farm Bill spending, should not be separated from the Farm Bill; however, there are some differences on specific provisions in the nutrition title. There are also many other important programs and provisions that are part of the existing titles in the Farm Bill, including rural develop-ment, ag research and extension, trade promotion, livestock disease mitigation, and beginning farmer loans.
• DOWNTURN IN THE FARM ECONOMY --- Profit margins in crop production have worsened considerably in the past two years, which could put some farm opera-tions at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates increased substantially in 2023 and 2024, while crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. For farm operators that experienced crop losses in 2024 due to weather issues, the financial situation is likely even more severe. The struggling profit margins for crop producers are somewhat linked to discussions on the new Farm Bill and the need for improved risk management tools for farmers. Swine producers have also had very low or negative profit margins for much of the time in the past two years. Some dairy and poultry producers have been dealing with the financial impacts of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in certain areas of the U.S.
• TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY --- Tariffs and trade policy have received a lot of discussion since the recent Presidential Election. President-Elect Trump has threatened to impose large additional tariffs on a variety of goods being imported into the United States from China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries. If the U.S. implements additional tariffs, there is high likelihood that the other countries could impose retaliatory tariffs on products and goods that are exported by the U.S. into these countries. China, Canada and Mexico are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports, including corn, soybeans, ethanol, pork, beef, and dairy products. The trade war with China during the first Trump administration had a significant impact on the commodity prices of soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products. Farm groups are also hopeful that the new administration and leadership in Congress can negotiate new bi-lateral trade agreements with other countries, in addition to normalizing relations with China, Canada and Mexico.
• RENEWABLE FUELS AND ENERGY --- The next Administration and Congress will need to decide what direction the U.S. takes toward further development of renewa-ble fuels industry through the renewable fuels standards (RFS), year-round E-15 blends, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other incentives for renewable fuels, such as tax credits, etc. Ethanol and renewable diesel production have a major economic impact for farm operators, as well as for the overall rural economy in the Upper Mid-west. Many ag leaders point to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers and the processing plants, some of the current feedstock for SAF production, such as used cooking oil, is being imported from other countries.
• IMMIGRATION REFORM --- We are likely to see some significant changes in U.S. immigration policy by the new Administration and Congress; however, many indus-tries, including the agriculture industry, could be significantly impacted by some of the potential immigration reform policies. Both production agriculture and the ag processing industry rely heavily on an immigrant workforce, so major changes in getting needed workers into portions of the U.S. could greatly affect the rural economy in some locations. What is really needed is for Congress and the Administration to develop an immigration policy that secures the U.S. border, but also allows needed immigration to satisfy labor shortages in some segments of the economy.
The new Farm Bill, the struggling rural economy, ag trade agreements, and the future of renewable energy are only a few of the issues affecting farm families and rural businesses. There are many other issues and programs that affect rural families, businesses, and communities in a variety of ways. These include family health care ac-cess and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of rural areas, infrastructure needs, assistance for beginning farmers, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The next few months should be interesting as the policy initiatives of the new Administration and Congress are unveiled.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The highly contentious 2024 Election is now history, and we are now moving rapidly forward with a new Administration and several new members of Congress. There will be new leadership in the U.S. Senate and some changes in lead roles on the Congressional Agriculture Committees. There are many key issues and possible policy changes that potentially could affect the agriculture industry, which will likely be addressed by Congress and the White House in the next couple years. However, there are also some concerns and questions with some of these policy initiatives as we move forward.
It appears that Brooke Rollins of Texas will be appointed to lead USDA and serve as the next Secretary of Agriculture. Other nominees by President-Elect Trump that could play a key role in ag and energy policy development include Lee Zeldin, former New York Congressman, as Director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as Secretary of the Interior, Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy, Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative, and Tom Horman as the Border Czar. These nominees for leadership roles in the new administration must now be approved by the U.S. Senate after January 1, 2025. The leadership of Federal Departments can have a big impact on how various agriculture, energy, and environmental policies are implemented and administered.
The leadership of key Congressional Committees, such as the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, will have a major influence on future agriculture and energy issues. Republican Senator John Thune from South Dakota, who has strong ties to agriculture and energy policy, will now be the leader of the U.S. Senate. Arkansas Senator John Bozeman will be Chair of the U.S. Senate Ag Committee and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar will be in the Democratic leadership role on the Ag Committee. Republican Congressman G.T. Thompson will continue the Chair the U.S. House Agriculture committee and Minnesota Second District Congresswoman Angie Craig will be the new lead Democrat on the Ag Committee. Both Senator Klobuchar and Congresswoman Craig are well respected by the Minnesota agriculture industry and have a history of working across party lines on ag policy issues. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith (D) will continue to serve on the Senate Ag Committee and First District Congressman Brad Finstad (R) will continue to serve on the House Ag Committee.
Following is some perspective on some of the key agriculture and energy policy issues that are likely to be under consideration during the next session of Congress, or by executive action from the Administration:
• FINALIZING A NEW FARM BILL - The 2018 Farm Bill originally expired on September 30, 2023 and was extended for one year; however, it has now expired again and will likely be extended for an additional year until September 30, 2025. The U.S. House Agriculture Committee passed its version of a new Farm Bill in the Spring of 2024; however, the bill has not been voted on by the entire U.S. House of Representatives. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), current Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, released a version of a new Farm Bill after the 2024 Election; however, it was not acted on by Congress.
Some members of Congress and many agriculture leaders have proposed increasing crop reference prices, enhancing crop insurance options, and improving risk protection opportunities for livestock producers and farmers that raise specialty crops. There has also considerable discussion regarding the importance of conservation programs and how those programs can enhance ongoing carbon sequestration efforts. Most members of both political parties agree that the nutrition title of the Farm Bill, which accounts for over 80 percent of the annual Farm Bill spending, should not be separated from the Farm Bill; however, there are some differences on specific provisions in the nutrition title. There are also many other important programs and provisions that are part of the existing titles in the Farm Bill, including rural development, ag research and extension, trade promotion, livestock disease mitigation, and beginning farmer loans.
• DOWNTURN IN THE FARM ECONOMY - Profit margins in crop production have worsened considerably in the past two years, which could put some farm operations at the brink of financial disaster. Crop production expenses and land rental rates increased substantially in 2023 and 2024, while crop prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have remained below breakeven levels, and are now at the lowest levels in several years. For farm operators that experienced crop losses in 2024 due to weather issues, the financial situation is likely even more severe. The struggling profit margins for crop producers are somewhat linked to discussions on the new Farm Bill and the need for improved risk management tools for farmers. Swine producers have also had very low or negative profit margins for much of the time in the past two years. Some dairy and poultry producers have been dealing with the financial impacts of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in certain areas of the U.S.
• TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY - Tariffs and trade policy have received a lot of discussion since the recent Presidential Election. President-Elect Trump has threatened to impose large additional tariffs on a variety of goods being imported into the United States from China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries. If the U.S. implements additional tariffs, there is high likelihood that the other countries could impose retaliatory tariffs on products and goods that are exported by the U.S. into these countries. China, Canada and Mexico are the three largest trading partners for U.S. ag exports, including corn, soybeans, ethanol, pork, beef, and dairy products. The trade war with China during the first Trump administration had a significant impact on the commodity prices of soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products. Farm groups are also hopeful that the new administration and leadership in Congress can negotiate new bi-lateral trade agreements with other countries, in addition to normalizing relations with China, Canada and Mexico.
• RENEWABLE FUELS AND ENERGY - The next Administration and Congress will need to decide what direction the U.S. takes toward further development of renewable fuels industry through the renewable fuels standards (RFS), year-round E-15 blends, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other incentives for renewable fuels, such as tax credits, etc. Ethanol and renewable diesel production have a major economic impact for farm operators, as well as for the overall rural economy in the Upper Midwest. Many ag leaders point to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a key growth opportunity for both the ethanol and renewable diesel industries in the future. However, federal agencies have set up very stringent farm-level practices that farmers must follow in order to be eligible to sell their corn and soybeans to processing plants for SAF production. Due to the restrictions being placed on U.S. farmers and the processing plants, some of the current feedstock for SAF production, such as used cooking oil, is being imported from other countries.
• IMMIGRATION REFORM --- We are likely to see some significant changes in U.S. immigration policy by the new Administration and Congress; however, many industries, including the agriculture industry, could be significantly impacted by some of the potential immigration reform policies. Both production agriculture and the ag processing industry rely heavily on an immigrant workforce, so major changes in getting needed workers into portions of the U.S. could greatly affect the rural economy in some locations. What is really needed is for Congress and the Administration to develop an immigration policy that secures the U.S. border, but also allows needed immigration to satisfy labor shortages in some segments of the economy.
The new Farm Bill, the struggling rural economy, ag trade agreements, and the future of renewable energy are only a few of the issues affecting farm families and rural businesses. There are many other issues and programs that affect rural families, businesses, and communities in a variety of ways. These include family health care access and costs, expansion of broadband coverage in portions of rural areas, infrastructure needs, assistance for beginning farmers, and other issues affecting agriculture and rural communities. The next few months should be interesting as the policy initiatives of the new Administration and Congress are unveiled.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

At the end of every year, various publications, websites, etc. have their “Top 10” or “Top 5” list for that year. In this issue of “FOCUS ON AG”, I am highlighting my “Top 5 Ag Topics” for 2024, based on issues that were discussed in the columns throughout the year. Following are my “Top 5 Ag Topics” for 2024:
1. LOW GRAIN PRICES AND TIGHT PROFIT MARGINS IN 2024
As in most years, where farmers were positioned in the grain market and the grain marketing decisions that were made by farm operators will have a big impact on the profit levels for their crop enterprise in 2024. The “basis” level between Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) prices and local corn and soybean prices has remained fairly tight in many areas of the Upper Midwest due to tight grain supplies, which enhanced grain marketing opportunities for the 2023 crop that was still in storage. Most crop input costs either increased or were steady in 2024 compared to expense levels in previous year; however, fertilizer, fuel, and chemical costs did modify somewhat in 2024. In many areas, land rental rates increased significantly in recent years and remained quite high in 2024, adding to the tighter profit margins. The U.S. Federal Reserve initiated a slight decrease in the prime interest rate this past Fall; however, short-term interest rates for fam operating loans are still above a few years ago. The higher interest rates, together with the need for more operating capital, has resulted in significantly higher interest costs for many farm operators.
The “new crop” corn prices in the upper Midwest did not offer many marketing opportunities during 2024. The “new crop” corn prices in Southern Minnesota started the year near $4.50 per bushel and spent most of the year below that level, ending the year near $4.40 per bushel. Many crop producers likely had breakeven costs of $5.00-$5.50 per bushel for 2024 at average corn yields on cash rented land. As a result, many farmers have not “locked-in” a forward price on very much of their 2024 corn crop and are hoping for stronger market prices in early 2025. The 2024 “new crop” soybean price in the region started the year near $11.50 per bushel, before dipping below $10.00 per bushel by July, and ending the year slightly above $9.50 per bushel. Similar to corn, there have been very few pricing opportunities for the 2024 soybean crop, as soybean breakeven costs are near $10.50-$11.00 per bushel for many producers.
2. RECORD RAINFALL AND VARIABLE CROP YIELDS
“Mother nature” was not kind to producers in the areas of the Upper Midwest that were heavily impacted by the excessive rainfall from late May until early July. Portions of Sothern Minnesota and extreme Northern Iowa were especially hard hit. In some cases, the same areas of southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa that had near-record rainfall during June also experienced near-record dryness from mid-August until early October. This impacted final yields for both corn and soybeans in numerous areas. Differing corn yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest were dependent on corn hybrid selection, planting dates, amount of tile drainage, and the level of excessive rainfall early the growing season. One piece of good news for producers regarding the 2024 corn harvest was the harvest moisture of the corn coming out of the field, which was a cost saving for many farmers.
Generally, the reported corn and soybean yields in most areas of the Upper Midwest were highly variable, mainly due to excessive rainfall in some locations early in the growing season and limited rainfall late in the growing season in portions of the region. The 2024 corn and soybean yields in large segments of southern and western Minnesota were not nearly as consistent as the past few years. Corn and soybean yields in 2024 were better and more consistent in much of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and other areas of the Eastern Corn Belt that benefitted from more favorable growing conditions.
3. NO NEW FARM BILL IN 2024
Once again, Congress failed to pass a new Farm Bill in 2024, after the current Farm Bill Extension expired on September 30, 2024. The U.S. House and Senate will likely pass a continuing resolution to provide additional federal funding to avoid a government shutdown at the federal level, which will also likely extend the current Farm Bill for an additional year year through September 30, 2025. This means that the current farm program and crop insurance provisions will remain in place through the 2025 crop year. It also will keep other important federal programs such as the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program, Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), and other popular USDA programs in place for at least another year. The extension will also keep the current Nutrition Title of the Farm Bill in place for another year.
An extension of the 2018 Farm Bill means that the “price loss coverage” (PLC) and “ag risk coverage” (ARC) farm program options for eligible crops will remain in place for the 2025 crop year and will be similar to PLC and ARC programs for the 2019 to 2024 crop years. The good news for producers for the 2025 crop year is that both reference prices for the PLC program and benchmark prices for the ARC-CO program will increase under provisions of the current Farm Bill. Once a Farm Bill Extension is finalized, the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) will provide details regarding 2025 farm program enrollment.
4. RESULTS OF THE 2024 ELECTION
2024 was a major election year nationally, as well as in Minnesota. The Presidential election dominated the national news, with added interest in Minnesota due to Governor Tim Walz being the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee with current Vice President Harris. Of Course, former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, was elected President in November, with J.D. Vance as Vice President. The Republican Party also gained a majority in the U.S. Senate for 2025, and maintained a small majority in the U.S. House. The primary focus since the election has been on the Trump nominees to lead various federal departments and agencies for the next four years, as well as what potential policies might be brought forward by the Trump Administration and Congress. The agriculture industry is paying particular attention to passage of a New Farm Bill, energy policy, trade and tariffs, and immigration policy.
The Fall election in Minnesota also ended in a surprise, with the Minnesota House of Representatives now with 67 Democrats and 67 Republicans heading into the 2025 Legislative Session. The “tie-situation” has only occurred once before in Minnesota history, following the 1978 election. The tie means that all the committees in the MN House that hear legislative proposals will have joint chairs. It should be interesting to follow how this situation unfolds in the first few months of 2025. The MN Senate remains at 34 Democrats and 33 Republicans, with Governor Tim Walz continuing in office.
5. SPREAD OF THE H5N1 VIRUS INTO DAIRY CATTLE
The U.S. and Minnesota poultry and turkey industry have dealt with the H5N1 virus (avian flu) for several years, which has resulted in millions of dollars in economic loss to producers. Early in 2025, the avian flu virus re-appeared in poultry and turkey flocks in Minnesota and other States; however, this time around the H5N1 virus also impacted dairy cattle. Since the H5N1 virus was first detected early in March this year, there have been 720 confirmed cases of the virus in dairy cattle in 15 States across the U.S. Fortunately, the H5N1 virus has not impacted on the Minnesota dairy industry as seriously as in some other States. Due to the continued spread of the virus, USDA recently issued a federal order to require nationwide testing of the U.S. milk supply for the H5N1 virus. USDA will be collaborating with State agencies to test raw milk for the virus and to track the movement of infected dairy cattle, in order to slow the spread of the virus. It should be pointed out that pasteurized milk and all processed dairy products are not impacted by the virus and are safe for consumers to eat, drink, and enjoy.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

Ask a farmer what their profit levels from crop farming were in 2024, and many of the answers in the Upper Midwest will likely be something like “worse than anticipated” to “disappointing” to “right down terrible”. Any of those answers could be correct, depending on where the farmer is located and how the heavy rains early in the growing season and the dry weather later in the growing season affected crop production in the area. The other big factor in farm profitability in 2024 was where farmers were positioned in the grain markets during the year, as well as the type and level of crop insurance coverage that was in place on the 2024 crop. Following is a brief overview of how some of these major factors will likely affect final farm profitability in 2024:
• 2024 CROP YIELDS - “Mother nature” was not kind to producers in the areas of the Upper Midwest that were heavily impacted by the excessive rainfall from late May until early July. Portions of Sothern Minnesota and extreme Northern Iowa were especially hard hit. In some cases, the same areas of southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa that had near-record rainfall during June also experienced near-record dryness from mid-August until early October. This impacted final yields for both corn and soybeans in numerous areas. One piece of good news for producers regarding the 2024 corn harvest was the harvest moisture of the corn coming out of the field, which was a cost saving for many farmers. Most of the corn harvested this Fall was under 18 percent moisture, which meant that a large portion of the corn crop could go directly in the bin for storage, without the need for additional drying.
Generally, the reported corn and soybean yields in most areas of the Upper Midwest were highly variable, mainly due to excessive rainfall in some locations early in the growing season and limited rainfall late in the growing season in portions of the region. The 2024 corn and soybean yields in large segments of southern and western Minnesota were not nearly as consistent as the past few years. Corn and soybean yields in 2024 were better and more consistent in much of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and other areas of the Eastern Corn Belt that benefitted from more favorable growing conditions.
Differing corn yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest were dependent on corn hybrid selection, planting dates, amount of tile drainage, and the level of excessive rainfall early the growing season. There were some “whole field” corn yield reports of 200 bushels per acre or higher in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa; however, there were also yield reports below 100 bushels per acre at some locations in south central and southwest Minnesota. Overall, many farmers in that region had final 2024 corn yields that were 10-20 percent or more below their crop insurance APH (average) yields.
• GRAIN MARKETING DECISIONS - The “new crop” 2024 corn prices in the upper Midwest did not offer many marketing opportunities, with very little movement during the year. The 2024 “new crop” corn prices in Southern Minnesota started the year near $4.50 per bushel and spent much the first six months between $4.20 and $4.40 per bushel, before dipping below $4.00 per bushel by harvest time. Many crop producers likely had breakeven costs of $5.00-$5.50 per bushel for 2024 at average corn yields on cash rented land. As a result, most farmers were not able to “lock-in” a forward price at a profitable level on their 2024 corn crop. They are now hoping for some post-harvest rallies in the corn market in early 2025. Due to higher interest rates than in recent years, storing grain in 2024-25 is more costly than a few years ago. USDA is currently estimating an average “on-farm” corn price of $4.10 per bushel for the 2024-25 marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2025.
The 2024 “new crop” soybean price in the region started the year near $11.50 per bushel, before dropping throughout the year and ending the year near $9.50 per bushel, with even lower prices at some locations. Following some favorable pricing opportunities for the 2024 soybean crop early in the year, market prices remained below the cost of production for most producers during the second half of 2024. The 2024 cost of production for soybeans on cash rented land is likely near $10.50 to $11.00 per bushel at average yields for many producers. Farmers that took advantage of soybean pricing opportunities early in the year were much more likely to show a small profit for 2024. USDA is currently estimating an average “on-farm” soybean price of $10.80 per bushel for the 2024-25 marketing year; however, prices in the past several weeks have trailed that level.
• 2024 CROP INSURANCE COVERAGE - The crop insurance harvest prices for corn and soybeans were well below the Spring base price levels. The base price is used to determine crop insurance guarantee per acre, while the harvest price is used to determine the harvest value. The lower harvest prices meant that farmers with 85 percent or higher insurance coverage on corn could start collecting 2024 crop insurance indemnity payments at yield levels slightly their average (APH) farm yields for corn and very near APH yields for soybeans. The level and type of crop insurance coverage that a producer carried for the 2024 crop year will impact farm profitability, especially in the areas that had greatly reduced crop yields for the year.
Corn and soybean producers had the option of selecting revenue protection (RP) crop insurance policies ranging from 60% to 95% coverage levels, which can result in some producers receiving large crop insurance indemnity payments others receiving very little or no indemnity payments at the same APH yield and final yields. The 2024 final harvest price for corn was $4.16 per bushel, compared to the Spring base price of $4.66 per bushel. If two farmers both had a 200 bushel per acre APH yield and a 170 bushel per acre actual 2024 corn yield, a farmer with an 85% RP policy would receive an indemnity payment of approximately $85 per acre, while a farmer with a 75% RP policy would receive no indemnity payment.
Corn and soybean producers also had the option of utilizing “enterprise units” or “optional units” for their 2024 crop insurance coverage. Enterprise units usually have a lower premium cost for the same coverage level and combine all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit. By comparison, optional units allow producers to insure crops separately in each township section, which can be a big advantage in a year with variable yields, such as 2024. Some farm operators also had buy-up crop insurance coverage for 2024, which may have been beneficial in various locations this past year.
BOTTOM LINE
Corn and soybean producers with average yields could still have a negative profit year in 2024, depending on their level of crop expenses and their grain marketing decisions. Producers with below average to very low crop yields in 2024 will likely have reduced to disastrous profit levels for the year, depending on their crop insurance coverage and grain marketing decisions. Farm operators that are facing serious year-end cash flow shortages are encouraged to consult their farm management advisors and ag lenders sooner than later to look at ways to address the situation. Farmers that will receive large crop insurance indemnity payments for the 2024 crop year should be aware of tax implications and potential audits related to those payments. Many crop producers are now waiting to see if Congress passes a disaster and financial assistance bill that provides some financial relief to offset the losses in 2024.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]
 
 
 
 

Many farm families may be facing a deadline that they are not even aware of. It is estimated that approximately 230,000 farms are required to file “Benefit Ownership Information (BOI) with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, as part of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) that was passed by Congress in 2021. The CTA act was passed to combat money laundering and illegal funding by organized crime. Farmers with certain types of business structures are required to file a BOI by January 1, 2025. Failure to comply with this requirement could result in significant fines and even jail time. As of late October, it was estimated that less than 15 percent of the farm operations that are required to complete a BOI had done so.
 
The Corporate Transparency Act requires any business, including certain types of farm business structures, to list any “beneficial owner” in a company with the U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). The BOI filing requirement now applies to all small businesses of all sizes that have filed an incorporating document with their State government, including S-corporations, limited liability corporations (LLC’s), and partnerships. The new BOI requirement will now include many family farm operations that utilize these type of business structures. A “beneficial owner” includes anyone with significant stake in the company or farm’s business and management, which can include having shares, equity, or having a significant role in management decisions.
 
Based on the 2022 U.S. Census of Agriculture, 85 percent of all farms in the U.S. are operated as “sole proprietorships and would likely be exempt from filing a BOI. However, 12 percent of farm operations of all sizes have business structures that now fall under fall under CTA requirements requiring a BOI filing. Besides farming operations, many other agriculture related businesses such as seed and chemical dealers, feed and supply stores, repair shops, etc., with those type of business structures will also fall under the CTA requirements. As mentioned, failure to comply with the BOI filing requirement can result in fines and felony charges. 
 
Farmers and other small businesses can find out more details on compliance with CTA requirements and can file a BOI online by going U.S. Treasury Department BOI filing website at:  https://www.fincen.gov/boi. A possible resource for more information on the CTA law and BOI requirements is the CPA or tax accountant that prepares the taxes for the farm business each year and is familiar with the farm’s business structure. Another possible resource is the ag lender for the businesses, as many banks and financial institutions are very familiar with FinCEN regulations and BOI requirements.
Finalizing 2024 Farm Machinery Custom Rates
Many farm operators provide some type of custom work or use of farm machinery to other farmers during the growing season, and payment is usually made following the completion of the harvest season. Sometimes, it can be difficult to determine a fair custom rate for certain farming practices, or for the use of various pieces of machinery. This could be the case in a year such as 2024, when the cost of machinery operation for diesel fuel, repairs, and labor may have changed from the beginning of the year until year-end.
 
One of the best resources for average custom rates is the annual “Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey” that is coordinated and analyzed by Iowa State University. Each year in January, custom operators and farm managers are sampled regarding the expected farm custom rates for various farm operations. The custom rate summary, which is usually released in late February, lists the average custom rate, as well as a range in custom rates, for various tillage, planting, fertilizer and chemical application, grain harvesting, and forage harvesting functions on the farm. The Iowa Custom Rate Survey is probably the most widely used custom rate information that is available in the Upper Midwest. The complete 2024 “Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey” is available on-line at the following Iowa State University web site: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a3-10.html
The average custom rates for farm operations in most areas of the Upper Midwest tend to be very close to the average Iowa custom rates. All listed custom rates in the Iowa survey results include fuel and labor, unless listed as rental rates or otherwise specified. These average rates are only meant to be a guide for custom rates, as actual custom rates charged may vary depending on increases in fuel costs, availability of custom operators, timeliness, field size, etc.
 
Based on the Iowa State data, most average custom rates for tillage, planting, and harvest operations in 2024 were fairly steady compared to the rates for similar operations in 2023. The 2024 custom farming rates for corn and soybean production are also expected to remain steady compared to a year earlier, following an increase of nearly 20 percent in the previous five years. The cost for new and used machinery has stabilized in 2024; however, fuel costs, repair costs, labor charges, and interest rates remain quite high. Any changes in these factors during the year may result in custom operators adjusting their final custom rates by year-end.
 
All listed custom rates in the Iowa Survey results include fuel, labor, repairs, depreciation, insurance, and interest, unless listed as rental rates or otherwise specified. The average price for diesel fuel was assumed to be $3.92 per gallon. A fuel price increase of $.50 per gallon would cause most custom rates to increase by approximately five percent. These average or median rates are only meant to be a guide for custom rates, as actual custom rates charged may vary depending on changes in fuel costs, availability of custom operators, timeliness, field size, etc. There are also many other specific situations among farmers and family members that share farm machinery that could lead to adjustments in final custom rates.
 
Custom Farming Agreements
Some farm operators hire custom work for specific farm operations with another farm operator, such as planting or combining, while other operators hire the typical crop field work through a custom farming agreement. The Iowa State Custom Rate Survey includes the average custom farming rates for corn, soybeans, and small grain. Custom farming agreements usually include tillage, planting, basic weed control, harvesting, and delivering grain to a specified location. Usually, any other additional or necessary farm practices that are performed during the year are paid outside of the custom farming agreement. Many farm operators negotiate these types of custom farming arrangements in the Spring of the year, while others wait until harvest is completed.
 
A good custom farming agreement includes a written contract that specifies the typical cropping practices to be performed and the amount of payment per acre to be paid to the custom operator by the landowner, and all other pertinent details for the custom farming arrangement. The average custom farming rates for corn and soybean production for 2024 are listed on the Iowa State Custom Rate Sheet; however, similar to the other custom rates, higher rates may be justified to cover increased costs of fuel, labor, etc. For more details on custom farming agreements, please refer to the Iowa State University “Ag Decision Maker” web site at: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a3-15.html
 
Calculating Farm Machinery Costs
The University of Minnesota periodically releases a publication titled: “Machinery Cost Estimates”, which was last updated earlier this year. This summary looks at the use-related (operating) cost of farm machinery, as well as the overhead (ownership) costs of the machinery, including fuel, repairs and maintenance, labor, depreciation, interest, insurance, and housing. This publication can help serve as a good guide to estimate the “true cost” of farm machinery ownership. The U of M publication and other resources on farm machinery ownership costs are available at: https://wlazarus.cfans.umn.edu/william-f-lazarus-farm-machinery-management. Another good resource for estimating the costs of farm machinery ownership is a publication from Iowa State University titled: “Estimating Farm Machinery Costs”, which includes a worksheet to calculate farm machinery costs. This publication is available at: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a3-29.html
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

With the advent of much lower corn and soybean market prices during 2024, together with reduced corn and soybean yields in some areas, many farmers and ag lenders are now wondering what the impact might be on potential farm program payments for corn and soybeans for the 2024 crop year. These payments would not be made until after October 1, 2025; however, it may be beneficial for 2025 cash flow planning purposes to make estimates regarding the potential 2024 farm program payments. Many crop producers in the Midwest were enrolled in the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice on their corn and soybean base acres for the 2024 crop year. There will likely be a wide variation in the potential for 2024 ARC-CO payments from county-to-county, depending on where final 2024 county average yields for corn and soybeans end up.
Producers have a farm program choice each year on all eligible crops between the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) farm program choices. Payments in the PLC program are “price-only” and are based on comparing the 12-month national market-year average (MYA) price for a given crop compared to the established reference price for that year. If the 12-month MYA price is lower than the reference price, the producer would earn a PLC payment for that crop for the year. Enrollment in the PLC program has been fairly low in recent years due to corn and soybean commodity prices that have been well above the established PLC reference prices. The PLC reference prices for corn and soybeans increased for 2024; however, market-year average (MYA) prices for corn, soybeans and wheat will need to decline from current projections in order to earn PLC payments for the 2024 crop year.
The ARC-CO farm program choice includes a formula that uses 5-year average county-based yield calculations and 5-year average MYA prices to establish a benchmark revenue for the farm. The final calculated revenue for the farm is the actual county yield for a given year times the final MYA price for the year. If the final calculated revenue is lower than 86 percent of the benchmark revenue for the year there would be an ARC-CO payment for that year. There is also an “ARC-IC” farm program choice, which is based on farm-level yields; however, in many instances the ARC-IC program has had less payment potential than the ARC-CO program.
Many times understanding the formula for the ARC-CO programs can be a bit confusing. Sometimes the formula can be easier to understand by reviewing the data and results for the ARC-CO program from previous years. For information on 2023 ARC-CO payments, current and past benchmark yields, prices and revenues, historical ARC-CO payment levels, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site, which is at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc
The 2024 corn and soybean yields were above average in portions of the Midwest that avoided the extremely wet weather early in the growing season and were not impacted extensively by the very dry weather that existed late in the growing season. On the other hand, portions of southern Minnesota and adjoining areas on northwest Iowa had significantly reduced yields resulting from excess rainfall in May and June, together with very dry conditions in August and September.
In areas that have final 2024 county average yields that are above the established 2024 county benchmark yield for the county, there will likely be limited chances of receiving 2024 ARC-CO payment, unless MYA prices decline further from current levels. However, in portions of the region that have final county yields that are below county benchmark yields, there should be a possibility for some level of 2024 ARC-CO payments. The final 2024 county yield data for corn and soybeans in every State will not be available from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) until late February, 2025.
The market year average (MYA) price for corn and soybeans is 12-month national average price in a given year from September 1st during the year of harvest until August 31st the following year, which is then finalized on
September 30th in the year following the production year for the crops. This is why any farm program payments that are earned for a given crop year are not paid by USDA until after October 1st in the following year. The marketing year to calculate MYA prices for wheat and other small grain crops is from June 1st in the year of harvest until May 31st the following year.
The 12-month national average MYA price for a given crop is based on the monthly average market price received by farm operators across the United States, which is then “weighted” at the end of the year, based on the volume of bushels sold in each month. The MYA price estimates can be tracked on a monthly basis in the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. The next WASDE report will be released on December 10, 2024.
Many crop producers in the Midwest are enrolled in the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice on their crop base acres for the 2024 crop year. The 2024 benchmark prices for potential 2024 ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all increased from 2023 price levels. The reference prices for potential PLC payments were also increased for corn and soybeans for 2024, but stayed the same for wheat. The marketing year to determine the 2024 market year average (MYA) prices is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025 for corn and soybeans, and June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025 for wheat.
Summary of 2024 potential PLC and ARC-CO payments:
•Corn --- The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the 2024 corn benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the October USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.10 per bushel. This is only $.09 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.75 below the 2024 corn benchmark price. At the current MYA 2024 corn price estimate, 2024 corn ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is very near the 2024 county benchmark yield.
•Soybeans --- The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the 2024 soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the October WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $10.80 per bushel. This is $1.54 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $.32 below the 2024 soybean benchmark price. At the current soybean MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield reduction that is about 11-12 percent below the county benchmark yield.
•Wheat --- The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the October WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.70 per bushel. This is only $.20 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments and is $.51 below the 2024 wheat benchmark price. At the current wheat MYA price estimate, 2024 wheat ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 6 percent below the county benchmark yield.
There are many variables when it comes to estimating 2024 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans, since those payments are based both on final county average yields and final market year average (MYA) prices. We will have a much better handle on making sound ARC-CO payment estimates once we get the NASS yield data in February and get further into the 12-month market year. For information on current and past benchmark yields, prices and revenues, historical ARC-CO payment levels, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site, which is at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc
Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) commodity loans on harvested corn, soybeans and wheat were regularly used by farm operators in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, as well as from 2015 to 2019, as a grain marketing tool. The use of CCC commodity loans dropped off considerably from 2008-2014 and again from 2020-2022, when grain prices reached their highest levels in many years. As farmers finish up the 2024 harvest season, the use of marketing assistance loans (MAL’s), which are the same as CCC commodity loans, has taken on more significance as an option in setting up post-harvest grain marketing plans for corn and soybeans.
The CCC commodity loans (MAL’s) are originated through county Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices after the grain has been harvested. The MAL’s are 9-month loans from the time the loan is established. A marketing assistance loan can be established both on farm stored grain and on grain in commercial storage with a warehouse receipt. Producers receive the value of the loan at the time the CCC loan is established. The loan can be repaid at any time during the 9-month loan period, by repaying the amount of the loan principal plus the accrued interest.
The 2018 Farm Bill established national loan rates for the various commodities that are eligible for the marketing assistance loans. Following are the 2024 national loan rates for common crops in the Upper Midwest:
· Corn --------- $2.20 per bushel
· Soybeans --- $6.20 per bushel
· Wheat ------- $3.38 per bushel
· Barley ------- $2.50 per bushel
· Oats --------- $2.00 per bushel
· Grain Sorghum --- $2.20 per bushel
The county loan rates are then adjusted higher or lower than national rates, based on local commodity price differentials compared to national price levels. Following is the range of county corn and soybean loan rates for MAL’s in the Upper Midwest States:
· Minnesota -------- Corn = $2.03 to $2.14/bu.; Soybeans = $5.85 to $6.18/bu.
· Iowa --------------- Corn = $2.08 to $2.30/bu.; Soybeans = $6.08 to $6.34/bu.
· Nebraska ---------- Corn = $2.05 to $2.28/bu.; Soybeans = $5.83 to $6.19/bu.
· South Dakota ----- Corn = $2.07 to $2.22/bu.; Soybeans = $5.70 to $6.13/bu.
· North Dakota ----- Corn = $2.00 to $2.22/bu.; Soybeans = $5.70 to $6.00/bu.
· Wisconsin --------- Corn = $2.04 to $2.17/bu.; Soybeans = $6.07 to $6.25/bu.
The MAL loan interest rate is adjusted monthly and is set up at one percent above the CCC borrowing rate from the U.S. Treasury. The interest rate on MAL loans is fixed for the entire term of the 9-month MAL, except for a potential CCC interest rate adjustment on January 1. The current interest rate on marketing assistance loans (as of 11-01-24) is 5.125 percent, which compares to an interest rate of 7.5 to 9 percent for short-term financing at many commercial ag lending institutions. Producers only pay interest for the time that the MAL is in place. Example --- $200,000 MAL corn loan at 5.125 percent interest for 180 days ($200,000 x .05125) / 365 x 180 = $5,055 interest payment for 6 months, which compares to $8,384 on a similar loan at 8.5 interest for 180 days).
Farm operators have the flexibility to place grain under a MAL at a local FSA office any time after the grain has been harvested, so they could take out the MAL in November or December, 2024, or wait until after January 1, 2025. Producers also have the flexibility to treat the commodity loan as either “income” or as a “loan” when the loan proceeds are received. Either of these decisions can have income tax implications, depending on how and when the loan proceeds are received. It is best to consult with a tax consultant before determining the timing and the preferred method of receiving the loan proceeds.
If commodity prices drop to levels that are lower than county loan rates, eligible producers would potentially be eligible to release the grain that is under a marketing assistance loan at a rate that is lower than the county loan rate. FSA issues a “posted county price” (PCP) for commodities that are eligible for MAL’s, which are updated and posted daily at local FSA offices, or available on county FSA websites. If the PCP is lower than the county loan rate, the producer could realize a “marketing loan gain” (MLG), if the grain is released at that lower PCP. (Example --- a producer places corn under a MAL at $2.10 per bushel, a few months later the PCP is $1.90 per bushel, resulting in the potential of a marketing loan gain of $.20 per bushel on the day the corn loan is released.)
If the PCP drops below the county MAL loan rate, producers also have the option to collect a loan deficiency payment (LDP) on a commodity, in lieu of putting the grain under a commodity loan. The LDP calculation is similar to the calculation for marketing loan gains. Grain that is already under a commodity loan is not eligible for a LDP, and a LDP can only be utilized once on the same bushels of grain. There has not been significant LDP eligibility for corn and soybeans since the early 2000’s and we do not anticipate any LDP opportunities for the 2024 corn and soybean crop that is being placed in storage.
Producers must be eligible for USDA farm program benefits and must have submitted an acreage report at the FSA office for 2024 to be eligible for marketing assistance loans on this year’s crop production. Producers must maintain “beneficial interest” in the grain while it is under a MAL. Beneficial interest means that the producer maintains control and title of the commodity while it is under a commodity loan. Farmers should contact their local FSA office to release any grain that is under a marketing assistance loan before it is delivered to market (“call before you haul”).
Following are some reasons that farm operators may want to consider utilizing marketing assistance loans (MAL’s) as part of their grain marketing strategies:
· Provides short-term credit at relatively low and stable interest rates.
· Loan funds can be used to pay post-harvest expenses and land rental payments for the current year or for prepaid crop inputs (seed, fertilizer, etc.) for the following crop year.
· Loan funds can also provide the necessary funds to make year-end or January principal and interest payments on term loans and real estate loans.
· Allows a producer to receive partial compensation for corn and soybeans during or following the Fall harvest season, when commodity prices are traditionally lower than average.
· Allows a producer the flexibility to market the grain in future months after the grain has been placed under a MAL, including forward pricing the grain for future delivery (remember that the commodity loan must be satisfied at the FSA office before the grain is delivered.)
· Commodity loans can also be used by livestock producers that plan to feed the corn or other grain, which is followed by just releasing the grain that is under loan as it is fed to livestock.
· If commodity prices decline below the county CCC loan rates, the grain that is under loan can be released at the lower price, or producers can collect a loan deficiency payment (LDP).
In Minnesota, FSA offices file a Central Notification System (CNS) form with the Minnesota Secretary of State Office on all grain used as security for a marketing assistance loan. These forms are similar to the CNS forms that are filed by ag lenders for farm operating loans to guarantee the transfer of funds when grain or livestock is sold to cover outstanding loan balances.
For further information on USDA marketing assistance loans (MAL’s) and county loan rates for various commodities, farm operators should contact their local FSA office, or go to the following website: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/price-support/Index
Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]
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The 2024 Fall harvest season had been progressing at a very fast pace across most of the Upper Midwest, with harvest nearly completed in many areas. The combination of above normal temperatures together with zero or very limited rainfall from late September until late October has allowed corn and soybean harvest to progress rapidly in most of the Corn Belt, with very few glitches. Very few locations had received enough precipitation during October to cause any delays in harvest progress and Fall tillage. The corn and soybean yield levels have been highly variable across the Midwest, with portions of Iowa, Illinois, and the Eastern Corn Belt having some of their best yields in recent years, while farmers in a large area of Southern Minnesota realizing some of their lowest corn and soybean yields in the past two decades.
 
Based on the USDA Crop Progress Report on October 20, it was estimated that 81 percent of the soybeans in the U.S. had been harvested, which was above the 72 percent harvested by that date in 2023 and was well above the 5-year average of 67 percent harvested. In the Upper Midwest, Minnesota led the way with 95 percent of the soybeans harvested by October 20, followed by Wisconsin at 93 percent, Iowa and South Dakota at 91 percent, North Dakota at 89 percent, and Nebraska at 85 percent. Other soybean harvest figures as of October 20 were Illinois at 76 percent, Indiana at 75 percent, and Ohio at 78 percent. All states were slightly ahead soybean harvest progress a year ago in late October and were significantly ahead of the 5-year average progress.
 
It was estimated that 65 percent of the corn in the U.S. was harvested by October 20, which was well ahead of the 55 percent harvest rate on that date in 2023, as well as the 5-year average of 52 percent harvested. Iowa was the leader in harvested corn acres in the Midwest with 68 percent harvested, followed by Illinois at 67 percent, Minnesota at 66 percent, Nebraska at 63 percent, and Indiana at 61 percent harvested. Other corn harvest figures in the October 20 report were South Dakota at 56 percent harvested, Ohio at 51 percent, North Dakota at 47 percent, and Wisconsin at 44 percent harvested. By comparison, all of the listed states were slightly ahead of the corn harvest pace a year ago and were well ahead of the 5-year average level of corn harvested by October 20.
 
Corn harvest in Minnesota has progressed more rapidly in many portions of southern and western Minnesota, as well as adjoining areas of eastern South Dakota and western Iowa, with many farmers nearing completion harvest for the 2024 growing season. Corn harvest in the eastern half of Minnesota, especially in southeast Minnesota, eastern Iowa, and Wisconsin has been somewhat slower due to having crops that were a bit later maturing and having higher yield levels. Normal planting dates in 2024, together with above normal growing degree units in the summer months in most areas, allowed most corn and soybeans to reach full maturity by late September. Later planted crops and replanted soybeans in the very wet areas of southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa did not mature until after October 1st.
 
Overall, the reported soybean yields across the Midwest have been highly variable, mainly due to excessive rainfall in some locations early in the growing season and limited rainfall late in the growing season in portions of the region. In some cases the same areas of southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa that had near-record rainfall during June also experienced near-record dryness during September and early October. The term “disappointing” was heard a lot when referring to 2024 soybean yields in many portions of southern and western Minnesota, meaning that yields were below the more optimistic expectations that existed in August. Many soybean yields in the region were 10-25 percent below crop insurance APH (average) yields. Most of the western and northern Corn Belt had soybean yields that were lower than the 2022 and 2023 soybean yield levels, while many areas of Iowa, Illinois, and the eastern Corn Belt experienced above average soybean yields in 2024.
 
2024 corn yields have also been highly variable across the Corn Belt. Similar to soybeans, corn yields this year have seemed to be more consistent in much of Iowa and Illinois, and other areas of the eastern Corn Belt that benefitted from more favorable growing conditions from May to July than other areas. Corn yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest seemed too vary considerably, depending on corn hybrids, planting dates, and the level of excessive rainfall early the growing season. There have been some “whole field” yield reports of 200 bushels per acre or higher in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa; however, there have also been yield reports below 100 bushels per acre at some locations in south central and southwest Minnesota. Overall, the 2024 corn yields in the Upper Midwest are not nearly as consistent as the past few years and for many farmers in southern Minnesota will be 10-20 percent below crop insurance APH (average) yields.
 
One piece of good news for producers regarding the 2024 corn harvest has been the harvest moisture of the corn coming out of the field. Most of the corn being harvested this Fall has been under 18 percent moisture, which means that a large portion of this year’s corn crop could go directly in the bin for storage, without the need for additional drying, which is a cost saving to farmers. Corn should be dried to about 15-16 percent moisture before going into the grain bin for safe storage until next Spring or Summer. Some corn that has been harvested was near 11-13 percent moisture, which is actually too dry and results in harvest losses for producers. The test weight of the corn being harvested has also been a pleasant surprise this year, with most corn having a test weight at or above the standard corn test weight of 56 pounds per bushel.
 
Drought Conditions Expand
Limited rainfall and above average temperatures from late August until late October has raised drought concern in most of the Midwest and Plains States. Most areas of Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin was listed in “moderate” to “severe” drought by late October, based on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report. Much of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan were also included with a drought designation. By comparison, The U.S. Drought Monitor report on August 20 listed only portions on the southern Plains States, Kansas, and Ohio in any of the drought categories.
 
Total precipitation measured at the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca during September was only .48 inches, making it the second driest September on record in the over 100 years of weather data at the site. As of October 28, only .05 of precipitation had been recorded in October. This compares to normal precipitation levels at Waseca of 4.12 inches in September and 2.77 inches in October. For the year, total precipitation is very near normal at Waseca, which is largely due to the 10+ inches above average precipitation that was recorded in May and June this year.
 
2024 was also the sixth warmest September at the Waseca location, averaging 66.9 degrees Fahrenheit, which was just 1.6 degrees below the warmest-ever average September temperature of 68.5 degrees in 1931. Average temperature in October have also been over 8 degrees above normal. The first frost event at Waseca occurred on October 7, which ended the 2024 growing season. A total of 2,781 growing degree units (GDU’s) were recorded from May 1 until October 7 this year, which is 11 percent above the season average total of 2,509 GDU’s.   
 
Fall tillage and manure applications have been occurring as soon as harvest is completed; however, those operations have been more challenging in many locations due to very dry soil conditions. Producers in some areas of the region typically apply nitrogen fertilizer for the corn crop that will be raised in the following year, once the current year’s harvest is completed. It is recommended to wait until soil temperatures are 50 degrees Fahrenheit or lower to apply nitrogen in the fall in order to avoid significant losses. Soil temperatures have been above that level through most of October. Farm operators are reminded to follow the statewide restrictions for fall nitrogen fertilizer application in their area, and to check with their State Department of Agriculture or Land Grant University for fall nitrogen application recommendations and requirements in their State.
Note - For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]