Like the start of a big NASCAR race or the beginning of a Championship game, many farmers in Southern Minnesota and Iowa began full-scale field work during the week of April 13-19. Farm operators in many portions of the western Corn Belt have reported almost ideal soil conditions; however, rainfall and wet soil conditions during the first half of April have delayed the initiation of major fieldwork in much of the eastern Corn Belt. It appears that the 2025 planting season may be similar to last year in much of the Upper Midwest, with fairly favorable corn and soybean planting conditions in the last half of April. Having favorable weather and planting conditions in April is always a big plus for getting the corn and soybean crop off to a good start.
Some areas of the Midwest received some much-needed precipitation in late March and early April, including additional rainfall this past week in some areas. Much of the south central and southeast Minnesota received 2-3 inches of precipitation in the past three weeks, with even higher amounts in localized areas, which has delayed planting progress in some areas. Precipitation amounts have been significantly less in the Western Corn Belt.
The recent precipitation followed extremely dry conditions during most of the Winter and the first half of March. This continued a dryness pattern across the Upper Midwest has existed since last Fall. In the latest USDA weekly crop report, the percentage of topsoil moisture in various States that was listed as “short” or “very short” included: both South Dakota and Nebraska 72%, Kansas at 54%, North Dakota at 54%, Iowa at 31%, and Minnesota at 28%, with Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Wisconsin at less than 10 %. The levels of top soil moisture are below normal for early in the growing season in most areas of the Western Corn Belt.
Many areas of the Western Midwest and Plains States have remained quite dry in recent weeks. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor on April 15 showed the “abnormally dry” or more severe drought listing at 70 percent or higher in most of the States in the region. South Dakota, North Dakota, and Nebraska were the driest States in the Western Corn Belt with 36 to 40 percent of each State in the “severe” or “extreme” drought category. The percentage of “severe” or “extreme” drought in Minnesota and Iowa was less than 10 percent. Only a small portion of the eastern Corn Belt was listed as “abnormally dry” or worse in the latest Drought Monitor summary. The good news is that drought conditions have improved in many potions of Minnesota and Iowa in recent weeks. The very dry conditions and “drought-like” conditions have continued in most areas of Nebraska, North and South Dakota, as well as adjoining areas of western Minnesota.
In years such as this, with an early start to the planting season, crop producers need to pay attention to the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) planting date guidelines to maintain full crop insurance coverage for the 2025 corn and soybean crop. The earliest corn planting date allowed by RMA to maintain full crop insurance protection in most of Minnesota and Iowa was April 11, while April 21 is the earliest planting date allowed for soybean planting for full insurance coverage. For initial and final planting dates in all States and other Federal crop insurance information, please refer to the RMA website at: https://www.rma.usda.gov/.
Soil temperatures during early April remained below levels for ideal corn planting in many areas of the Upper Midwest. At the University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Center near Waseca in Southern Minnesota, the 24-hour average soil temperature during the first week of April was near 40 degrees Fahrenheit at the 2 to 4-inch level; however those soil temperatures warmed up to near 50 degrees by April 13-18, which is near the minimum desired soil temperature for good corn planting and seed germination conditions. Soil temperatures should warm up rapidly in the Upper Midwest, with some much warmer temperatures expected by late-April. Farmers and agronomists tend to pay close attention to soil temperatures early in the growing season; however, soil temperatures become less of a concern by late April. At that point, getting the crop in the ground gets to be more of a priority rather than soil temperatures, as the ideal corn planting window gets much shorter.
Research shows that 50 percent corn emergence will occur in 20 days at an average soil temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, which is reduced to only 10 days with an average soil temperature of 60 degrees F. The likely enhancement in soil temperatures certainly provides optimism to have favorable conditions for corn germination and seedling growth. The warmer soil temperatures are also favorable for the initiation of soybean planting, which usually occurs in late April and May in many areas. Every year is different, and agronomists encourage producers to adjust to soil conditions and weather forecasts when making corn and soybean planting decisions.
Unless conditions turn very wet in the next few weeks, a large majority of corn in Minnesota could easily be planted before the end of April or early May this year. Corn planting delays can significantly impact final corn yields. In both 2018 and 2019 a majority of the corn was planted from mid-May until early June. According to the USDA Weekly Planting Progress Report, only 2 percent of the corn in Minnesota had been planted at the end of April in 2019, which was about 15 days behind normal. Minnesota’s corn yield declined from record yield levels in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to 182 bushels per acre in 2018 and only 174 bushels per acre in 2019. In 2023, only 5 percent of the corn was planted by May 1 and the final statewide corn yield of 185 bushels per acre.
Historically, early planting of corn usually leads to higher-than-normal state average corn yields in Minnesota and other Upper Midwest States. In several years when 50 percent or more of the corn acres in Minnesota have been planted in April or the first week of May, the State has usually set or been near a record corn yield. In 2015, corn planting in Minnesota was 83 percent completed by May 3, resulting in a record yield of 188 bushels per acre, which was followed with 89 percent of the corn planted by May 8 in 2016, again resulting in another record statewide corn yield of 193 bushels per acre. In 2020, when 76 percent of the corn was planted by May 3, the statewide corn yield was 192 bushels per acre, just short of the statewide record corn yield. One exception was in 2017, when most of Minnesota’s corn was planted in the first two weeks of May; however, very favorable growing conditions throughout the year in most areas resulted in a statewide record corn yield in 2017.
The record corn yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022 was also an exception to this trend, as Minnesota did not achieve 50 percent of the corn planted until around May 15. It should be noted that a much higher percent of the corn in Southern Minnesota had been planted by May 10, and the counties in the southern third of the State were largely responsible for the record statewide corn yield. Another exception was in 2021 when 71 percent of the statewide corn acreage was planted by May 3; however, the 2021 average corn yield in Minnesota was only 178 bushels per acre due to drought conditions in many portions of the State that reduced yields. In areas of the State that received adequate rainfall, the 2021 corn yields were above average to near record levels. In 2024, 54 percent of the corn in Minnesota was planted by May 12 and final statewide yield was 174 bushels per acre, with final yields greatly impacted by excessive June rainfall, as well as drought in some areas later in the growing season.
Once farmers have completed planting their corn acres, most farm operators will likely move directly into soybean planting. A majority of soybean producers in the Upper Midwest strive to plant soybeans in late April and early May; however, the ideal window to plant soybeans and still achieve optimum yields is much wider than with corn. The ideal soybean planting time frame in most areas extends from mid-April until mid-May. Similar to earlier corn planting dates, research does show that with favorable growing conditions there is a yield advantage to planting soybeans in late April or early May, as opposed to planting in late May.
With the addition of the recent rainfall, soil conditions have been described as “almost ideal” for Spring planting by farm operators and agronomists in many areas the Upper Midwest. Significant amounts of precipitation have slowed planting progress in some areas; however, most crop producers in the region should be able to begin full-scale corn planting once soil conditions are fit. The recent precipitation should also provide adequate topsoil moisture for good corn germination and emergence in most of this region; however, periodic moderate rainfalls during planting season can be beneficial for good seed germination and early season plant growth.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The USDA “Prospective Plantings Report” that was released on March 31st projected a 5 percent increase in 2025 U.S. corn acreage compared to a year ago, along with a 4 percent decrease in 2025 soybean acreage from a year earlier. The USDA planting intentions numbers came in slightly higher than the grain trade expected for corn and similar to trade estimates for soybeans. The USDA “Quarterly Grain Stocks Report” was also released on March 31st, which lists the estimated U.S. grain inventory as of March 1, 2025, for both “on-farm” and commercial grain storage. The USDA estimates for U.S. corn and soybean inventories came in near the average stocks estimates of the grain traders.
The USDA prospective planting acreage is based on survey data collected from about 72,000 crop producers in early March. Total U.S. crop acreage was listed at 224.2 million acres expected to be planted to corn, soybeans, and wheat in 2025, which up slightly from 223.8 million acres in 2024. The USDA estimates for intended 2025 U.S. corn and soybean acreage was viewed as somewhat “bearish” for “new crop” corn futures prices, meaning lower price expectations, and was viewed as mainly “neutral” for soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). After the USDA planting intentions report was released on March 31, December 2025 corn futures closed up slightly and November soybean futures were basically steady.
Typically, these late March USDA Reports are very critical to farm operators and grain traders due to their impact on grain market prices in the Spring and early Summer months. During these months, many farm operators try to sell remaining grain inventories from the previous growing season, as well as look for opportunities to forward price a portion of the anticipated crop for the current year. In a majority of years, corn and soybean prices usually reach their “peak-price” during the period from April until June, which is why these reports are so important.
Highlights from the March 31st USDA Planting Intentions Report:
Corn - The planting intentions report indicated that just over 95.3 million acres of corn are expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2025, which is an increase of 4.7 million acres or 5.1 percent from the 2024 corn acreage of 90.6 million acres. The 2025 U.S. corn acreage would also be above the 2023 corn acreage of 94.6 million acres. The highest corn acreage recorded in recent decades in the March USDA survey was 97.3 million acres in 2012. The current USDA corn acreage estimate was above the estimates of most grain traders. Based on the report, 2025 planted corn acreage is likely to increase in most of the major corn production States. Following is the estimated 2025 corn acreage and the expected increase from 2024: Iowa at 13.5 million acres (+4.7%); Illinois at 11.1million acres (+2.8%); Nebraska at 10.5 million acres (+5.5%); Minnesota at 8.6 million acres (+4.9%); Indiana at 5.4 million acres (+3.8%); Missouri at 3.8 million acres (+10.1%); Kansas at 6.4 million acres (+1.6%); South Dakota at 6.3 million acres (+6.8%); North Dakota at 4.2 million acres (+6.3%); and Wisconsin at 3.95 million acres (+5.3%). Ohio at 3.25 million acres was the only major corn producing State with a decrease in expected corn acres (-4.4%).
Soybeans - Based on the estimates in the March 31st Planting Intentions Report, U.S. soybean acreage in 2025 is projected at 83.5 million acres, which represents an decrease of 3.5 million acres from a year ago. The 2025 U.S. soybean acreage estimate compares to 87 million acres in 2024, 83.6 million acres in 2023, 87.4 million, acres in 2022, 87.2 million acres in 2021, and the record 90.2 million acres in 2017. The highest decrease in the estimated 2025 soybean acreage was in Iowa with an expected decrease of 450,000 acres, followed closely by Minnesota and North Dakota with decreases of 400,000 acres each, South Dakota with a decrease of 350,000 acres, and both Illinois and Nebraska with decreases of 300,000 acres. Smaller decreases in 2025 soybean acreage are likely to occur in Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Ohio was the only major producing State to show a slight increase in anticipated soybean acreage for 2025. Wheat - The intended total U.S. wheat acreage for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, which is down 2 percent from 46.1 million acres in 2024 and trails 49.6 million acres in 2023. Spring wheat acreage for 2025 was estimated at just over 10 million acres, which is down from 10.6 million acres a year ago. 2025 Spring wheat acres are expected to increase slightly in Minnesota, but decrease in North Dakota and stay the same in South Dakota.
Highlights from the March 31st USDA Grain Stocks Report:
Corn - The total U.S. corn stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at over 8.15 billion bushels, which is down 2 percent from a year earlier, and were slightly below the average grain trade estimate. The report indicated that farmers were carrying 11 percent or 579,000 less bushels of corn inventory in on-farm storage in 2025, as compared to a year earlier. Approximately 55 percent of the total U.S. corn stocks are being held in on-farm storage, which compares to 61 percent a year ago. Another positive in the USDA grain stocks report was that the implied corn usage from December, 2024 through February, 2025 was up about 2.6 percent compared to a year earlier. The somewhat favorable corn stocks numbers helped offset the potential negative market impacts that could have resulted from the expected increase in 2025 U.S. corn acreage. Farmers are hoping for a rally in the cash corn market in the coming weeks to liquidate some of the remaining 2024 corn inventory that is still in storage.
Soybeans - Soybean stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at just under 1.91 billion bushels, which is up 4 percent from a year ago, and is comparable to the total soybean stocks on March 1, 2023. About 46 percent of the total soybean stocks were held in on-farm storage. The total U.S. soybean usage from December, 2024 through February, 2025 was estimated at 1.19 billion bushels, which was nearly the same as a year earlier. The March 1 soybean stocks estimate came in very near the average estimate of grain traders. The higher levels of grain stocks somewhat offsets the expected decrease in 2025 soybean acreage. This fact, together with the tariff concerns, may limit any substantial increases in the CBOT soybean futures prices in the coming weeks.
Wheat - Total wheat stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at nearly 1.24 billion bushels, which is up 14 percent from March 1, 2024, and was the second year in a row of substantial increases wheat stocks. Approximately 25 percent or just over 307,000 bushels of the total wheat stocks were held in on-farm storage. The implied U.S. wheat usage in the past quarter was 336 million bushels, which was up about 1 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
Corn market prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the release of the USDA reports were very comparable to a year ago, but were considerably lower than 2023. Nearby CBOT corn futures closed at $4.57 per bushel on March 31, which compares to $4.42 per bushel in 2024 and $6.60 per bushel in 2023. New crop CBOT December corn futures on March 31 closed at $4.42 per bushel, compared to $4.76 per bushel in 2024 and $5.66 per bushel in 2023. Nearby CBOT soybean futures closed at $10.15 per bushel following the USDA report on March 31, compared to $11.91 per bushel in 2024 and $15.05 per bushel in 2023. New crop November futures closed at $10.19 per bushel on March 31, compared to $11.86 per bushel in 2024 and $13.20 per bushel in 2023.
The March 31st USDA report was based on producer surveys of planting intentions, as of March 1st; however, there is potential for these planting intentions to be adjusted slightly when final planting takes place. The improved margins and stronger crop insurance Spring price for corn has likely encouraged the potential for more corn acres in 2025; however, any significant delays in spring planting could encourage an increase in soybean acreage. In the past twenty-one years, final corn acreage has increased above the prospective March 1 planting estimate in twelve years and decreased in nine years.
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

Government  Payments  Drive  Increase  In  2025  U.S.  Farm  Income   
Based on the data in the latest “2025 Farm Income Forecast” that was released by the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) in February, U.S. net farm income is expected to increase by $41 billion or 29.5 percent above 2024 levels, following two years of sharp decline in 2023 and 2024. The 2025 net farm income is now estimated at $180.1 billion, which would be the second highest net farm income since 2010, only trailing the 2022 net farm income level of $182 billion. The projected significant increase in 2025 net farm income was mainly driven by a projected large increase in government farm program payments, much of which will be one-time payments resulting from “American Relief Act (Continuing Resolution) that was passed by Congress late in 2024.
 
In the recent farm income report, USDA estimated total U.S. net cash income for 2024 at $193.7 billion, which is an increase of $34.5 billion or 21.7 percent from a year earlier; however, approximately $31 billion of that total is projected to be the result of the “ad-hoc” government payments. Net cash income includes cash receipts from all farm-related income, including government payments, minus cash expenses for the year. Net farm income is accrual-based, which includes adjustments in the cash income to reflect changes in inventories, depreciation, and rental income. Generally, net farm income is a truer measure of overall profitability in the farm sector.
 
Following are some highlights from the latest USDA 2025 Farm Income Report:

• Overall, 2025 cash receipts for all commodities on U.S. farms are estimated at $515 billion, which is a decline of $1.8 billion or 0.3 percent compared to 2024. 
• Total 2025 crop receipts are estimated at $239.6 billion, representing an expected decrease of $5.6 billion or 2.3 percent below 2024 levels. The decline in crop receipts is primarily due to an anticipated decrease in cash receipts from corn and soybeans in 2025, which are expected to decline by $2.7 billion for corn and by $3.1 billion for soybeans from year earlier. This decline is largely due to expected further declines in commodity prices in the coming year. Receipts from other crops in 2025 are expected to remain fairly steady, with only minor downward adjustments from 2024 levels.
• The projected total cash receipts from livestock production in 2025 are estimated at near $275.4 billion and are expected to increase by $3.8 billion or 1.4 percent from a year earlier. This is primarily due to expected increases in total receipts from the production of milk, hogs and broilers, compared to a year earlier. Receipts from cattle sales are expected to decline slightly in 2025, while receipts from egg production are expected to decrease by $0.6 billion this year; however, that decline could be even greater due to the impacts of avian influenza. The impact of potential tariffs could alter these livestock income projections.
• The significant level of government farm program payments in 2025 will have a major impact on net farm income and net cash income levels for the year. The estimated direct government payments to be paid to farmers in 2025 was listed at $42.3 billion, which compares to $9.3 billion in 2024. The 2025 government payment level would be the second highest total amount in the past 16 years, only being surpassed by just over $45.6 billion in the “Covid-year” of 2020. Approximately $31 billion or nearly three-fourths of the total 2025 payments will be for one-time “ad hoc” disaster assistance and economic assistance payments. The projected government payments also include traditional PLC and ARC-CO farm program payments and conservation payments, but do not include receipts from crop insurance indemnity payments. 
• Total farm expenses are estimated at $450.4 billion in 2025, which is a decrease $2.5 billion or 0.6 percent from 2024. This followed decreases of $9 billion in 2024 from 2023. The 2025 total farm expenses for feed, fertilizer, pesticides are projected to show the largest decreases. Interest expense is expected to decrease (by 0.5%) percent in 2025, which would be the first decline since 2020. Farm labor expense is expected to increase by 3.6 percent in 2025 to the record level of $53.1 billion. The expenses for seed, property taxes, and fees are also expected to increase in 2025.

 

• “Working Capital”, which measures the cash available after all farm expenses have been paid and all annual debt payments have been made is expected to increase by 3.9 percent by the end of 2025, largely due to the added government farm program payments. This followed a decline of 6.7 percent in farm working capital a year earlier. Deterioration of working capital was a major concern in many farm businesses during the tight farm profit years on 2014-2020. The “current ratio” and the “debt service coverage” (DSC) ratio also deteriorated in 2024. The “current ratio” measures the value of current assets that have not been sold to cover unpaid expenses and current-year debt obligations. The DSC ratio measures the ability of farm profits to cover required annual principal and interest payments on farm loans.
• The nominal value of all U.S. farm assets is expected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2025, which would increase the total value of U.S. farm assets to approximately $4.4 trillion. Over 83 percent, or $3.67 trillion of the total assets, come the value of farm real estate, which has increased dramatically in some portions of the U.S. in recent years. Farm real estate values in the U.S. are expected to increase by 4.3 percent in 2025, which follows increases of 5.5 percent in 2024 and nearly 8 percent in 2023.
• Even though total U.S. farm debt is relatively low, it should be noted that total farm debt in 2025 is expected to increase by 5.2 percent or about $16.6 billion, raising the total U.S. farm debt to $561.8 billion. Of that debt total, approximately two-thirds is real estate debt, with the balance from other farm loans.
• The overall farm sector debt-to-asset ratio is projected to remain relatively low at 12.93 percent at the end of 2025; however, this is a small increase from 12.84 percent in 2024 and 12.78 percent at the end of 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio at the end of 2025 is expected to decrease to 14.65 percent, from 14.73 percent at the end of 2024. Current debt-to-equity ratios are well below the record high ratio of 22.2 percent in 1985.

 
While the U.S. net farm income projections do show some dramatic improvement in 2025 as compared to the previous two years (2024 and 2023), there is a degree of caution due to high level of one-time “ad hoc” government farm payments. The very high net farm income levels from 2021 to 2023 were primarily driven by some of the highest crop prices in the past decade, along with very manageable farm production expenses and low interest rates. Total receipts from crop and livestock sales for 2025 on U.S. farms are projected to be very similar to 2024 and 2023 levels, with some variation within crop and livestock commodities. Total cash expenses on U.S. farms are projected to show a small decline in 2025; however, overall farm expenses remain at quite high levels. It should also be noted that there will be considerable disparity in the level of government payments among individual farmers.
 
If no other sources of farm income are accounted for, the margin between total U.S. crop and livestock receipts in 2025 and total farm expenses is estimated at $63.9 billion. The projected 2025 margin is less than half of the margin of $134.4 billion in 2022. Back in 2017, the margin between cash receipts and cash expenses was $58.5 billion and the final U.S. net farm income for the year was only $75.1 billion, which was the lowest in the past eight years (2017-2028). Government farm program payments are likely to help make up some of the farm income deficit in the margin between total cash receipts and farm expenses in 2025. Government payments are expected to account for 23 percent of the net farm income in 2025, which compares with 8-9 percent each year from 2022 to 2024, and would be the second highest percentage, trailing only the 48 percent of net farm income in 2020. 
 
There are some certainly some positive factors in the projected 2025 net farm income and profitability levels revealed in the latest USDA farm income report, due to improved profit levels in livestock production and the added government farm program payments. However, there are also “yellow caution flags” in the report due to the projected lower receipts from corn and soybeans and the continuation of relatively high farm production expenses. A big key to farm profitability going forward will be any impacts on crop and livestock prices and farm production expenses during 2025 resulting from possible tariffs between the U.S. with Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries. Of course, the potential for drought and other weather events are always a big “wild card” in final U.S. net farm income figures from year-to-year.
 
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

The March 11 USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report did not offer many significant changes from the February WASDE report. The 2024-25 ending stocks for soybeans, and wheat are expected to increase slightly from a year earlier; however, the 2024-25 corn carry-over level is expected to decline from the previous year. The expected 2024-25 market year average (MYA) prices for soybeans and wheat were lowered slightly compared to a month earlier, while the corn MYA price projection stayed the same in the March estimates. All eyes will now be on the USDA 2025 Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks reports that will be released on March 31, as well as early season growing conditions in the Midwest.
Corn
The latest WASDE report estimates 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which is the same as the February WASDE report and would be down 12.6 percent from a year earlier. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks compare to a carry-out levels of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 bushels in 2021-22. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is estimated at 10.9 percent, which compares to ratios of 11.8 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23 and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. The current stocks-to-use ratio is still well below the high corn stocks-to-use ratios of 14.6 percent for 2018-19, and 14.5 percent in 2017-18. The current projected carryout level does provide some potential for rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop during the 2025 growing season.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S market year average (MYA) corn price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $4.35 per bushel, which is the same as the February estimate. The projected 2024-25 MYA corn price compares to recent national average prices of $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.57 per bushel for 2019-2020. The 2024-2025 WASDE price estimates are the expected average farm-level prices for corn and soybeans from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent the average prices for either the 2024 or the 2025 calendar year.
Soybeans
The latest USDA report kept soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year in the latest WASDE report are estimated at 380 million bushels, which is the same as the February WASDE report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels for 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21. The projected soybean ending stocks for the current year would be highest in the past five years but would still be considerably lower than the 913 million bushel carry-out level in 2018-19, which was during the last U.S. trade war with China.
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is an increase from the ratios of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22, and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The lowest soybean stocks-to-use level in recent times at 2.6 percent in 2013. Improvement in soybean prices in the coming months may be limited, unless there are issues with South America production levels, or unless drought conditions develop in the primary U.S. soybean production areas in 2025.
USDA is now projecting the U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $9.95 per bushel, which is a decline of $.15 per bushel from the February estimate. The estimated 2024-25 market year average soybean price is $2.45 per bushel below the final MYA price a year ago, and would be the lowest average price since the 2020-21 marketing year. The 2024-25 price estimate compares to other recent yearly average soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20, and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19.
Wheat
The March 11 WASDE report estimated the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 at 819 million bushels, which is an increase of 43.7 percent in the past two years. The projected 2024-25 wheat carryout levels compare to 794 million bushels in 2023-24, 570 million bushels in 2022-23, and 674 million bushels in 2021-22. The 2024-25 farm-level average wheat price is now projected at $5.50 per bushel, which is down $.05 per bushel from the February estimated price. The 2024-25 wheat price estimate compares to other recent MYA price levels of $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22, $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21, and $4.58 per bushel in 2019-20. The 2024-25 MYA price for wheat and other small grains is the average farm-level price in the U.S. from June 1, 2024 until May 31, 2025.
Impact on Potential 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Many crop producers in the Midwest were enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for corn and soybeans the 2024 crop year, and are now wondering about the potential for 2024 ARC-CO payments later this year. For producers that enrolled in the “price-only” PLC program in 2024, the final market year average (MYA) price needs to drop below the crop reference price to earn a payment. Payments in the ARC-CO program are based on a final county revenue (2024 county yield x final MYA price), compared to a county benchmark (BM) revenue (county BM yield x 2024 BM price). The marketing year to determine the 2024 MYA prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025, and from June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025 for wheat and other small grains.
Following is an updated summary of potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the March USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2024 PLC payments are not likely; however, 2024 ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 2-3 percent below the 2024 county benchmark yield (8-9 bushel per acre yield decline in many counties).
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $9.95 per bushel. This is $.69 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $1.17 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2024 PLC payments are not likely. ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield that is about 4-5 percent below the county benchmark yield (2-3 bushel per acre yield decline in many counties).
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.50 per bushel. This is at the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments to begin and is $.71 below the 2024 benchmark price. Wheat PLC payments would be initiated with any further decline in the MYA price by June 1, 2025. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 3-4 percent below the county benchmark yield (2-3 bushels per acre yield decline in many counties).
Any 2024 ARC-CO or PLC payments will not be paid until October, 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

April 15 is the deadline to sign-up for the 2025 farm program at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices throughout the United States. Eligible producers are able to choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) program choices. The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based ARC-CO program choice and the ARC-IC program, which is based on farm-level yields. Following are some of the common questions that have been raised regarding 2025 farm program sign-up and some potential answers:
 

• Do I need to sign-up for the 2025 farm program if I do not intend to change my PLC or ARC-CO choice from 2025 ?

Based on FSA guidelines and requirements, farm units will automatically remain with the same farm program option as 2024 if no farm program choice is made for 2025; however, producers would still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program by April 15, 2025, to remain eligible for program benefits. Farm operators need to complete FSA Form #866 to finalize both steps in the farm program enrollment process.
Producers can sign-up for the 2025 farm program at FSA offices now, and still be able to change or adjust their PLC or ARC-CO program choice at any time until April 15.
 

• What choices do crop producers have for 2025 farm program decisions?

Producers can choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) program choices for the 2025 crop production year.  The ARC program choice includes both the more popular county-yield based “ARC-CO” program choice and the “ARC-IC” program, which is based on farm-level yields. Producers can choose PLC for one crop and ARC-CO for other crops on the same farm; however, ARC-IC requires all crops to be in that program choice. Farm operators that have farms in multiple counties can choose PLC or ARC-CO on the same crop in different counties. (For example, they could choose the PLC program for corn in County A and ARC-CO for corn in County B.)
 

• What are the key factors to consider for my choice of ARC-CO or PLC for corn in 2025 ?

The odds of receiving either a PLC or ARC-CO payment for 2025 are improved compared to recent years, due to a higher reference price for potential PLC payments and a higher benchmark (BM) price for potential ARC-CO payments. The 2025 reference price is $4.26 per bushel, which is at the highest level allowed under the current Farm Bill, and compares to $4.01 per bushel in 2024 and $3.70 per bushel in 2023. 2025 PLC payments would begin at a final MYA price below $4.26 per bushel. The PLC program provides price protection and potential PLC payments from a final 2025 MYA price from $4.26 down to $2.20 per bushel. The final corn MYA price from 2014-2019 was $3.70 per bushel or lower, resulting in corn PLC payments; however, the MYA price has been above $4.26 per bushel from 2020 to 2023, and will likely be again in 2024. The PLC payments are based on pre-set farm level FSA yields, which have not changed since 2018 and are typically 20 percent or more lower than the current average farm yields.
 
ARC-CO payments for 2025 will be made if the final county revenue for the year (2025 county yield x final 2025 MYA price) falls below the 2025 benchmark (BM) revenue (county BM yield x BM price).  The 2025 benchmark (BM) price for corn is $5.03 per bushel, which compares to $4.85 per bushel in 2024 and $3.98 per bushel in 2023. At a final 2025 MYA price of $4.50 per bushel, the final 2025 county yield would need to be about 5 percent or more below the BM yield to initiate an ARC-CO payment. For example, if the county BM yield is 200 bu./A., the county yield would need to be 190 bushels per acre or lower for a 2025 ARC-CO payment. If the final 2025 county average yield is the same as the BM yield, the final 2025 MYA price needs to be near $4.30 per bushel in order to initiate an ARC-CO payment, which would be a few cents per bushel above the price to initiate PLC payments.

• What about the 2025 farm program decision for soybeans and wheat ?

Soybeans --- The 2025 MYA price needs to drop below the $9.66 per bushel reference price to initiate 2025 PLC payments. There has never been a PLC payment for soybeans since the PLC program was initiated in 2014. The lowest MYA prices since 2014 were $8.48 per bushel in 2018 and $8.57 per bushel in 2019, during the trade war with China, when the soybean reference price was $8.40 per bushel. The 2025 soybean benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $10.50 per bushel, 2025 soybean ARC-CO payments would begin at 2025 county average yields that are very near county benchmark yields. Given the current economics for soybean production, the 2025 farm program choice probably leans quite strongly toward ARC-CO in most instances.
 
Wheat --- The 2025 PLC reference price for wheat is $5.56 per bushel. The final wheat MYA price was below $5.50 per bushel from 2015-2020, with substantial PLC payments earned in many of those years; however, the MYA price for wheat has been higher than $5.50 per bushel in recent years and no PLC payments have occurred. The 2025 wheat benchmark price is $6.72 per bushel. At a final MYA price of $6.00 per bushel, ARC-CO payments would begin at 2025 county average yields that are only a few bushels below the county benchmark yields. Generally, wheat producers have tended to favor the PLC program over the ARC-CO program due to the favorable PLC payments from 2014 to 2020; however, it may be worthwhile to consider ARC-CO for 2025 due to the higher benchmark price.
 

• Are there situations where ARC-IC might be a favorable farm program choice ?

The program utilizes the same BM price and final MYA price as the ARC-CO program; however, ARC-IC is based on farm-level yields rather that the county BM and final yields. The ARC-IC program must be applied to all covered commodities on a given FSA farm unit, and all farm units in a State that are enrolled in ARC-IC are considered together in one ARC-IC calculation. In addition, ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of crop base acres, compared to payments on 85 percent of base acres for PLC and ARC-CO payments, which tends to limit instances where ARC-IC is a favorable farm program option.
 

• How are the “Market Year Average” (MYA) prices determined ?

All 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on the market year average (MYA) price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026, which means that the current price levels may not impact the final 2025 MYA prices. The MYA price is a monthly average farm-level price from throughout the U.S. that is “weighted” for the volume of bushels sold each month. The 2025 MYA price marketing year for wheat and small grains runs from June 1, 2025, through May 31. 2026.
 

• Where can I find some good PLC/ARC-CO calculators to assist with the farm program decision ?

Following are links to some very good farm program calculators that allow for comparison of potential PLC and ARC-CO payments at various final 2025 MYA prices and various final 2025 county yields: 

• University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/fast-tools/arc-co-plc-model
• Kansas State University --- www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill
• North Dakota State University --- www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
• Iowa State University ---  www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

 

• Are there some other good farm program resources ?

            The official farm program details, county benchmark yields, etc. are available on the FSA farm program
            website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/index
            Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared an information sheets titled: “2025 Farm
            Program Decision Cheat Sheet”, which contains pertinent farm program details and information.
            To request a free copy of these information sheets, send an e-mail to: [email protected].
                     
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected] 

The U.S. Congress passed a “Continuing Resolution” in late December that included $10 billion in farm economic assistance to offset low commodity prices and $21 billion in disaster assistance to provide aid for farmers with losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024. Many Midwest crop producers are counting on receiving this extra income in 2025 to help offset the current tight margins in crop production. As of this writing, USDA has not yet released any information through local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices to provide any details to farmers and ag lenders on what those payments might be. Now that Brooke Rollins has been confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, many ag experts are expecting details on these ad hoc programs to be made available very soon.
In addition, it is very difficult to estimate potential 2024 farm program payments for corn and soybeans that were enrolled the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) program last year, due to changes at the USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). Potential 2025 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on a 12-month average price and final average 2024 crop yield, with any payments occurring in October, 2025. Normally NASS released preliminary average county corn and soybean yields in late February each year, which could then be used to estimate potential ARC-CO payments for the previous crop year. In April of 2024, NASS announced that the agency was discontinuing the release of county yield data beginning with the 2024 yield data that would have been released in 2025. Since there are no other credible sources of county yield data, farmers and ag lenders will now need to wait until late May or early June to get final county yield data from the USDA Risk management Agency (RMA) to estimate potential 2024 ARC-CO payments.
                  Most Midwest farm operators finalize their farm cash flow plans for the upcoming year during the months of January and February, sometimes with the assistance of an ag lender or farm business management advisor. Many times, ag lenders utilize these cash flow projections to determine the viability of farm operating loans for the year. A negative cash flow projection for the year can impact or delay the ability of a farmer to access needed operating credit to purchase seed, fertilizer and other crop inputs for the coming growing season. Due to the low grain prices and very tight projected profit margins for crop production in 2025, many farmers ag lenders are counting on some added income in 2025 from the ad hoc government payments that were approved late in 2024 and potential
2024 farm program payments.
                  Even though we do not have official information of the economic assistance or disaster payments, as well as potential 2024 farm program payments, farmers and ag lenders can rest assured that some of these payments will occur yet in 2025. Following is a summary of the various potential payments:
Farm Economic Assistance Payments
                  One of the most important pieces of the Continuing Resolution legislation that was signed into law late in 2024, which will provide farm economic assistance payments to many crop producers. The economic assistance were established to provide payments to producers of certain crops to offset low prices and poor profit margins for the 2024 crop year. The eligible commodities include barley, corn, cotton, dry peas, grain sorghum, lentils, large chickpeas, oats, peanuts, rice small chickpeas, soybeans, other oilseeds, and wheat. These payments will be based on the planted acres to eligible crops in 2024, as reported to local Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. In addition, 50 percent of 2024 prevent plant acres to eligible crops will be eligible for payments.
The estimated commodity payment rates range from near $5 per acre for sesame seed to near $80 per acre for cotton. The estimated payment rates for major crops in the Midwest are $42.51 per acre for corn, $29.50 per acre for soybeans, and $30.80 per acre for wheat. It should be noted that these are estimated payment rates, as no official payment rates have been released by USDA. The legislation required the economic assistance payments to be implemented within 90 days of enactment of the legislation, which would be late March in 2025. 2023 and 2024 Disaster Assistance The Continuing Resolution legislation that was enacted in late 2024 also included $21 billion in disaster assistance for 2023 and 2024 agricultural losses from natural disasters, such as drought, hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, wildfires, excessive rainfall, etc. Farmers and ranchers in many portions of the U.S. may qualify for the disaster payments for one or both years, including the Upper Midwest that had areas impacted by drought in 2023 and by excessive rainfall in 2024. Specific details for the disaster program have not been announced by USDA; however, it is assumed that the payment formula will likely be similar to the Economic Relief Program (ERP) payments from 2020 and 2021. The disaster payments will be implemented by local FSA offices at some point in 2025. Based on the previous formula, disaster payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other major commodities would be calculated separately for the 2023 and 2024 crop years and will likely be based on reported crop insurance yields. The payments would be additional payments over and above the crop insurance indemnity payments that were already paid. The payment formula will likely be based off of a set percentage of the crop insurance revenue guarantee for the year (APH yield x Spring price guarantee) minus the actual crop value (final yield x Fall harvest
price) minus crop insurance indemnity payments that were paid, and then factored by a set percentage.
Potential 2024 Corn and Soybean ARC-CO Payments
Many crop producers in the Midwest are enrolled in the “revenue-based” Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) farm program choice for the 2024 crop year, rather than the “price-only” Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. The reference prices for the PLC program and the benchmark prices for the ARC-CO program for both corn and soybeans increased in 2024. The marketing year to determine the 2024 market year average (MYA) prices for corn and soybeans is from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025. For producers in the PLC program, the final MYA price needs to drop below the crop reference price to earn a payment, as opposed to the ARC-CO program which determines payments based on a final county revenue (county yield and MYA price). Following is a summary of potential 2024 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn - The 2024 PLC corn reference price is $4.01 per bushel and the benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $4.85 per bushel. Based on the February USDA WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA corn price is $4.35 per bushel. This is $.34 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 corn PLC payments; however, it is $.50 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current 2024 MYA price estimate, 2024 ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final 2024 county corn yield that is about 2-3 percent below the 2024 county benchmark yield.
Soybeans - The 2024 PLC soybean reference price is $9.26 per bushel and the soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $11.12 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA soybean price is $10.10 per bushel. This is $.84 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 PLC payments; however it is $1.02 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a 2024 county soybean yield that is about 4-5 percent below the county benchmark yield.
Wheat - The 2024 PLC wheat reference price is $5.50 per bushel and the 2024 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.21 per bushel. Based on the February WASDE report, the current estimate for the 2024 MYA wheat price is $5.55 per bushel. This is only $.05 per bushel above the threshold for 2024 wheat PLC payments and is $.41 below the 2024 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, ARC-CO payments would initiated with a final county wheat yield reduction of about 4 percent below the county benchmark yield. Any 2024 ARC-CO or PLC payments will not be paid until October, 2025. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC web site
at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc.     
Kent Thiesse has prepared an Information Sheet titled “2024 Farm Program Payment Potential”, which is available by contacting: [email protected].
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

2025 Farm  Program  Decisions  Are  More  Challenging
April 15 is the deadline to sign-up for the 2025 farm program at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices throughout the United States or online at on the USDA FSA website. Eligible producers are able to choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) farm program choices. The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based ARC-CO program choice and the ARC-IC program, which is based on farm-level yields. In recent years, corn and soybean producers have tended to lean toward ARC-CO over PLC for their farm program choice. Farmers may want to “push the pencil” or run the farm program calculators a bit more this year to determine their best farm program choice for 2025, especially for corn.
 
Following are some of the common questions that have been raised regarding 2025 farm program sign-up , along with some potential answers and considerations:

• Do I need to sign-up for the 2025 farm program if I do not intend to change my PLC or ARC-CO choice from 2025 ?

Based on FSA guidelines and requirements, farm units will automatically remain with the same farm program option as 2024 if no farm program choice is made for 2025. However, producers would still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program by April 15, 2025, to remain eligible for program benefits. Farm operators need to complete the proper FSA forms to finalize both steps in the farm program enrollment process. Producers can enroll in different farm program choices on separate farm units for the same crop, as well as for each crop.
 

• What are my considerations to make the best farm program choice for corn in 2025 ?

The odds of receiving either a corn 2025 PLC or ARC-CO payment for corn are improved due to higher benchmark (BM) and reference prices. The 2025 PLC reference price for corn is $4.26 per bushel, while the 2025 BM price is $5.03 per bushel. PLC payments begin at a final 2025 MYA price below $4.26 per bushel, while potential 2025 ARC-CO payments are dependent on the final 2025 county average yield and the final MYA price. At a 2025 MYA price of $5.03 per bushel, the county yield would need to be 15 percent or more below the BM yield to initiate an ARC-CO payment. For example, if the county BM yield is 200 bushels per acre, the final county yield needs to be 170 bushels per acre or lower to earn a 2025 ARC-CO payment.
 
Another way to look at ARC-CO payments would be if the final 2025 county yield is the same as the benchmark yield. In that situation, ARC-CO payments would be initiated if the final MYA price drops below $4.32 per bushel, compared to PLC payments being initiated at a final 2025 MYA price below $4.26 per bushel. If the final 2025 county average yield is 2 percent above the BM yield, which is only 3-4 bushels per acre in most Midwest counties, both ARC-CO and PLC payments would be initiated below $4.26 per bushel. If county average yields rise above county benchmark yields, the odds of receiving a higher 2025 ARC-CO payment compared to a PLC payment are diminished. The final corn MYA price from 2014-2019 was below $4.26 per bushel and resulted in corn PLC payments from 2015-2019. The recent MYA prices were $4.53/bu. in 2020, $6.00/bu. in 2021, $6.54/bu. in 2022, and $4.55/bu. in 2023. The current 2024 MYA corn price estimate is $4.25/bu., which would be very near the 2025 PLC reference price of $4.26/bu.
 

• Are there other considerations regarding the farm program choice for corn in 2025 ?

The PLC program for 2025 will provide corn price protection with potential PLC payments extending from $4.26/bu. down to $2.20/bu. The maximum PLC payment in most Midwest counties is probably $250 to $290 per base acre, while the maximum ARC-CO payment is probably $85 to $95 per base acre. For farm operators that are very concerned about potential significant corn price declines later in 2025 into 2026, the PLC farm program choice for 2025 provides a nice “safety net”. For producers that are less concerned about future corn prices, but are more concerned with the potential for drought in 2025, ARC-CO may be a better farm program choice for corn in 2025.

• What are factors that affect the 2025 farm program decision for soybeans ?

The 2025 soybean benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel and the 2025 reference price is $9.66 per bushel. The MYA price needs to drop below $9.66 per bushel to initiate 2025 PLC payments. The only time since 2014 that the MYA price has dropped below $9.66 per bushel was in the 2018 and 2019 marketing years, which were during the “trade war” with China. At a 2025 MYA price of $9.66 per bushel and a 2025 county yield the same as the benchmark yield, there would be a significant soybean ARC-CO payment for 2025. USDA has not made a PLC payment for soybeans in any year since the PLC program was initiated in 2014.  
 
At a final MYA price of $12.17/bu., the final county yield for 2025 will need to be 15 percent or more below the 2025 county benchmark yield to initiate a 2025 soybean ARC-CO payment, which equates to a 2025 county average yield decline of 7-10 bushels or more per acre in most Midwest counties. Given the current soybean price projections, the 2025 farm program choice probably leans toward ARC-CO in most instances; however, the odds of a 2025 ARC-CO payment will be dependent on the soybean price trends following the 2025 harvest season, as well as the final 2025 county average yield.
 

• What about the 2025 farm program choice for wheat ?

The PLC reference price increased by $.06 per bushel to $5.56 per bushel for 2025, while the ARC-CO benchmark price for wheat increased to $6.72 per bushel for 2025. The final wheat MYA price was below $5.56 per bushel from 2015-2020, with substantial PLC payments earned in many of those years; however, the recent MYA wheat prices have been $7.63/bu. in 2021, $8.83/bu. in 2022, and $6.96/bu. in 2023. The current projected 2024 MYA price is $5.55/bu. The calculations for comparing PLC and ARC-CO as a 2025 farm program choice for wheat in 2025 are very similar to the calculations for corn. Generally, wheat producers have tended to favor the PLC program over the ARC-CO program in recent years, due to the favorable PLC payments from 2014 to 2020; however, the higher ARC-CO benchmark price for 2025, along with the price and yield uncertainty, makes the 2025 farm program decision more challenging.
 

• Are there situations where ARC-IC might be a favorable farm program choice ?

The program utilizes the same BM price and final MYA price as the ARC-CO program; however, ARC-IC is based on farm-level yields rather that the county-based yields. The ARC-IC program must be applied to all covered commodities on a given FSA farm unit, and all farm units in a State that are enrolled in ARC-IC are considered together in one ARC-IC calculation. In addition, ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of crop base acres, compared to payments on 85 percent of base acres for PLC and ARC-CO payments, which tends to limit instances where ARC-IC is a favorable farm program option.
 

• How is the “Market Year Average” (MYA) price determined ?

All 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans will be based on the market year average (MYA) price from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026, which means that the current price levels may not impact the final 2025 MYA prices. The MYA price is a monthly average farm-level price from throughout the U.S. that is then “weighted” for the volume of bushels sold in each month. The 2025 MYA price marketing year for wheat and small grains runs from June 1, 2025, through May 31. 2026.
 

• What are some good PLC/ARC-CO resources to assist with farm program decisions ?

For official information on PLC and ARC-CO programs, and other farm program details, go to the FSA farm program website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. Kent Thiesse, farm management analyst, has prepared an information sheet titled “2025 Farm Program Decision “Cheat Sheet”, which is available by sending an email to: [email protected]. Following are links to some very good farm program calculators to estimate potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments at various final MYA prices and final county yields: 

• University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/
• North Dakota State University --- https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
• Kansas State University --- http://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill
• Iowa State University ---  https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]

During the next few weeks, farm operators will be finalizing their crop insurance decisions for the 2025 crop year. March 15th is the deadline to purchase crop insurance for the 2025 crop year. The 2025 Spring price for corn should be similar to last year, while the soybean Spring price is likely to be reduced from the base price level in 2024. There still should be some favorable crop insurance guarantees again this year at reasonable premium costs. USDA has increased the premium subsidies for ECO and SCO insurance products, which may enhance crop insurance choices for farmers in 2025.

Producers have several crop insurance policy options to choose from, including yield-only (YP) and revenue protection (RP and RPE) policies, SCO and ECO policies, and other private insurance options. In recent years, most farm operators have chosen revenue protection (RP) insurance options, which provide a guaranteed gross revenue per acre (yield x price). This guarantee is based on yield history (APH) on a farm unit times the Spring (base) price, which is the average of the CBOT prices during the month of February for December corn futures and November soybean futures.

As of January 23, the 2025 crop insurance Spring price estimates in the Upper Midwest for YP, RP, and RPE policies were estimated near $4.60 per bushel for corn and $10.40 per bushel for soybeans. The 2025 Spring prices will be finalized on March 1. The current 2025 base price estimates compare to recent base prices $4.66/bu. for corn and $11.55/bu. for soybeans in 2024, $5.91/bu. for corn and $13.76/bu. for soybeans in 2023, and $5.90/bu. for corn and $14.33/bu. for soybeans in 2022. The final 2025 crop revenue will be the actual fam yield times the crop insurance harvest price, which is the average CBOT prices during October for December corn futures and November soybean futures.
Another insurance option that is a lower premium than a typical RP policy with harvest price protection is a RPE (harvest price exclusion) policy, which functions similarly to a standard RP policy except that the guarantees on RPE policies are fixed at the base price level and are not affected by harvest prices that exceed the base price. The revenue guarantee for standard RP policies is increased for final insurance calculations, if average CBOT prices during the month of October are higher than the February CBOT prices, which is what occurred for corn and soybeans in both 2020 and 2021, as well as for corn in 2022. The RPE option is not recommended to protect against losses due to large crop disasters, such as a drought or other disaster that affects a large portion of the Midwest, or other situations that could lead to price increases during the year.

An analysis for the past eighteen years (2007-2024) shows that the final crop insurance harvest price for corn has been lower than the Spring base price in twelve of the eighteen years, including a decrease of ($.50) per bushel in 2024. The corn harvest price was also lower from 2013-2019. That trend was reversed from 2020-2022, when the harvest price for corn rose above the Spring price by +$.11 per bushel in 2020 +$.79 in 2021, and by +$.96 in 2022. The only other years that saw an increase in the harvest price were 2010, 2011 and 2012.

An analysis of the past eighteen years for soybeans, shows that the harvest price has increased in seven years (2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2021) and decreased in ten years (2008, 2011, 2014-2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024), while staying the same in 2013. The range has been from an increase of +$2.84 per bushel in 2012 to a decline of ($3.00) per bushel in 2008. In 2024, the harvest price was $10.03/bu., which was a decrease of ($1.52) per bushel from the Spring price of $11.55/bu. The range of price variation from Spring prices to harvest prices for corn and soybeans, both up and down, further solidifies the importance of having a solid crop insurance policy in place for the 2025 crop year.

SCO and ECO Insurance Coverage Improved for 2025
The Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) coverage is only available to producers that choose the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) farm program option for the 2025 crop year. The farm program enrollment deadline is April 15 in 2025; however, the crop insurance enrollment deadline is March 15, 2025. This means that farm operators will need to consider both choices by March 15 if they want to utilize SCO insurance coverage. SCO allows producers to purchase additional county-level crop insurance coverage up to a maximum of 86 percent coverage. For example, a producer that purchases an 80% RP policy could purchase an additional 6% SCO coverage.

The Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) provides area-based insurance coverage from 86 percent up to 95 percent coverage, with producers having a choice between 90 or 95 percent ECO coverage. Unlike SCO coverage, the purchase of ECO coverage is available with selection of either the PLC or ARC-CO farm program choice for 2025. Producers can utilize both ECO and SCO together, in addition to their underlying RP, RPE, or YP insurance policy. SCO and ECO are county revenue-based insurance products that utilize the same crop insurance base prices and harvest prices as RP insurance policies; however, the biggest difference is that SCO and ECO utilize county level average yields, rather than the farm-level APH yields. As a result, the SCO and ECO insurance policies may achieve different results than the underlying RP policy.

The federal government has increased the premium subsidies for both SCO and ECO coverage for 2025, which should make premiums more reasonable for crop insurance coverage that include these products. It is estimated that 2025 SCO premiums will decline by 3-5 percent compared to a year ago, while ECO premiums are likely to decline by 30-35 percent in 2025 compared to a year earlier. Many crop insurance companies have combined SCO and ECO coverage with other private insurance buy-up policies to offer some very attractive risk management insurance packages for the 2025 crop year. Interested producers should check with their crop insurance agent for details on 2025 SCO and ECO insurance coverage and premiums, along with private insurance buy-up options, to optimize their crop insurance coverage for 2025.
 
“Enterprise Units” and “Optional Units”
“Enterprise units” combine all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit, while “optional units” allow producers to insure crops separately in each individual township section. “Enterprise units” usually have considerably lower premium costs (approx. $8.00-$10.00 per acre) compared to “optional units”, for comparable RP and RPE policies. Producers should be aware that “enterprise units” are based on larger coverage areas, and do not necessarily cover losses from isolated storms or crop damage that affect individual farm units, such as damage from hail, wind, or heavy rains that have occurred in recent years. It is important to understand the difference in insurance coverage and to analyze the yield risk on each individual farm unit, when determining if paying the extra premium for insurance coverage with “optional units” makes sense.

“Bottom-Line” on Crop Insurance Decisions
Producers have the option to purchase RP and RPE insurance coverage levels from 50% to 85%, and losses are paid if the final crop revenue falls below the revenue guarantee. Given the tighter margins for both corn and soybeans, there may be a tendency to reduce the level of crop insurance coverage for 2025. However, producers need to closely analyze their risk exposure for the 2025 crop year and adjust their crop insurance coverage accordingly. At the current estimated Spring prices, many producers should still be able to provide an adequate level of risk protection for corn and soybean production in 2025. Crop insurance remains one of the best risk management tools that is available for farm operators to protect their investment in crop production.
A reputable crop insurance agent is the best source of information to find out more details about the various crop insurance products that are offered, to get premium quotes, and to help finalize 2025 crop insurance decisions. Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, has prepared an information sheet titled: “2025 Crop Insurance Decisions”. To receive a copy of the information sheet please forward an e-mail to: [email protected]
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]  

Eligible farm operators have from January 21 until April 15 to enroll in the 2025 farm program, either online or at local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. Late in 2024, the 2018 Farm Bill was extended for one year, extending the expiration of the current Farm Bill until September 30, 2025. This also meant that the provisions and parameters that existed for traditional farm programs will continue for the 2025 crop year for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops. The good news for farm operators is that the reference prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat will all increase for the 2025 crop year. The reference prices are used to calculate potential PLC payments for a given commodity. The benchmark prices that are used in determining potential “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also increased for the 2025 farm program.

Eligible cops for farm program benefits include corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, grain sorghum, long grain rice, medium/short grain rice, temperate japonica rice, seed cotton, dry peas, lentils, large and small chickpeas, peanuts, sunflower seed, canola, flaxseed, mustard seed, rapeseed, safflower, crambe, and sesame seed. Producers can choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC) program choices for the 2025 crop production year.  The ARC program choice includes both the county-yield based “ARC-CO” program choice, which is the most popular, and the “ARC-IC” program, which is based on farm-level yields. If no choice is made, the 2024 farm program choice will remain in place for 2025; however, producers still need to enroll in the 2025 farm program in order to be eligible for farm program benefits.

Crop base acres for 2025 will remain at the same levels as 2024 for all crops on most farms, unless there are adjustments in base acres for crop acres that were added via land purchases or rental agreements or acres that are no longer eligible for farm program payments. The farm program yields on individual farm units, which were last updated in 2020, will be continued to calculate potential PLC payments in 2025. The ARC-CO “benchmark yields” for 2025 are based on the “Olympic-average” Risk Management Agency (RMA) county average yields for the 2019 to 2023 crop years. The national “market year average” (MYA) price for each program crop for the years 2019-2023 was averaged to calculate the 2025 “benchmark price” for the ARC-CO and ARC-IC programs.
 
The calculation formulas, etc. for the 2025 PLC, ARC-CO and ARC-IC programs will remain the same as in previous years. PLC payments for 2025 will be made if the final MYA price for 2025 falls below the reference price for a given crop. ARC-CO payments for 2025 will be made if the final county revenue for the year (county yield x final 2025 MYA price) falls below the 2025 benchmark revenue (county benchmark yield x benchmark price) for a given crop. The calculations for the ARC-IC program are the same as for the ARC-CO program, except ARC-IC uses farm-level yield data and considers all crops on a farm unit together for calculation of potential payments in a given year. PLC and ARC-CO payments will be paid on 85 percent of crop base acres, while ARC-IC payments are paid on only 65 percent of base acres.

The 2015 Farm Bill established “statutory reference prices” for all crops that were used to calculate PLC payments. The 2018 Farm Bill set the fixed statutory prices as minimum reference prices and added the possibility for “effective reference prices”. This allows the reference price to increase by as much as 15 percent above the fixed reference price (fixed price x 115%). The final calculated reference price for a given year is the higher of the fixed statutory price or the 5-year “Olympic average” price for a commodity times 85 percent (.85). The “Olympic average” price is calculated by taking the market year average (MYA) price for the five previous years (not including the current marketing year), dropping the high and the low price, and then averaging the other prices for the other three years. For the 2025 crop year, the “Olympic average” price is based on the MYA prices for the years 2019 to 2023, which is then multiplied by 85% (.85) to determine the final reference price. The 2025 reference prices for both corn and soybeans will be at the maximum level (115% of the statutory price).
The final effective reference prices (ERP) for the 2019 to 2023 crop years were at the minimum statutory levels of $3.70 per bushel for corn, $8.40 per bushel for soybeans, and $5.50 per bushel for wheat, meaning that calculation for higher reference prices was not triggered for any of those three crops. MYA prices have been high enough in recent years to result in higher PLC reference prices for corn and soybeans in both 2024 and 2025, as well as for wheat in 2025. The 2025 reference prices are $4.26 for corn, $9.66 for soybeans, and $5.56 for wheat. The higher reference prices potentially increases the likelihood of PLC payments for the 2025 crop year, especially for corn and wheat, if average market prices decline during the 2024-25 marketing year. PLC payments are not as likely for soybeans at current market price trends. The higher PLC reference price for corn will likely make 2025 farm program decisions for corn a bit more challenging than in recent years.

Key points to remember about the 2025 Farm Program decision:
•    The 2025 reference prices for the PLC program are:      
Corn = $4.26 per bushel  ($4.01/Bu. in 2024 & $3.70/Bu. in 2023)
Soybeans = $9.66 per bushel  ($9.26/Bu. in 2024 & $8.40/Bu.in 2023)  
            Wheat = $5.56 per bushel  ($5.50/Bu. in 2024 & 2023)
 
•    The ARC-CO and ARC-IC benchmark prices for 2025 are:
Corn = $5.03 per bushel  ($4.85/Bu. in 2024 & $3.98/Bu. in 2023)
Soybeans = $12.17 per bushel  ($11.12/Bu. in 2024 & $9.57/Bu. in 2023)
Wheat = $6.72 per bushel  ($6.21/Bu. in 2024 & $5.50/Bu. in 2023)

•    Final 2025 MYA prices for corn and soybeans will be calculated from 9-01-25 to 8-31-26. As a result, the current trends in crop prices may not necessarily impact final 2025 farm program payments. Final 2025 MYA prices for wheat and other small grains will be calculated from 6-01-25 to 5-31-26.
 
•    Calculation formulas for the PLC and ARC-CO programs are as follows:
    PLC payment per crop base acre = (2025 Ref. Price – 2025 MYA price) x program yield x .85
(If the final 2025 MYA price is higher than the reference price, there is no PLC payment.)
    ARC-CO Benchmark (BM) revenue guarantee per acre = County BM yield x BM price x .86
Final 2025 ARC-CO revenue per acre = Final 2025 County yield x Final 2025 MYA price
ARC-CO payment per base acre = (BM Revenue Guarantee – 2025 Final Revenue) x .85
(If the final revenue is higher than the BM revenue, there is no 2025 ARC-CO payment.)

•    For official information on PLC and ARC-CO programs, and other farm program details, go to the FSA farm program website at: www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc
For a listing of 2025 county benchmark yields and revenues for all crops, refer to:
            https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/arcplc-program-data/index

•    Following are some good Farm Program web-based decision tools to assist producers:
    University of Illinois FarmDoc website --- https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/
    North Dakota State University --- https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill
    Kansas State University --- http://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/2018-farm-bill

•    Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst with the Green Solutions Group, has prepared an information sheet listing key points regarding the 2025 farm decision for corn, soybeans and wheat for the 2025 crop year. To receive a copy of the “2025 Farm Program Decision “Cheat Sheet”, send an email to: [email protected]
For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone - (507) 381-7960; E-mail - [email protected]

The January USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is often known as being a “market mover”, and the WASDE report released on January 10th did not disappoint. USDA made significant downward adjustments to final 2024 corn and soybean production numbers, based on lowering the final 2024 national average corn yield by 2.1 percent and the average soybean yield by 1.9 percent. The reductions in the corn and soybean supply, together with only minor adjustments in corn and soybean usage, resulted in a significant decline in projected ending stocks for both crops compared to a month earlier. The initial market reaction following this report was an increase in both corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
 
CORN
The updated National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report for 2024 was also released on January 10th. The report estimated the final 2024 U.S. average corn yield at 179.3 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 3.8 bushels per acre from November’s estimate. The 2024 corn yield estimate is still a new record average U.S. corn yield, surpassing the previous record U.S. yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, and compares to 173.4 bushels per acre in 2022. The corn yield estimates in the latest NASS report were lowered by 4.9 percent or more in Minnesota, Indiana, and Kansas, compared to the last yield estimate in November. Minnesota is estimated to have a final 2024 average corn yield of 174 bushels, while Iowa is projected to have a final corn yield of 211 bushels per acre. Other estimated average corn yields for 2024 included Illinois at 217 bushels per acre, Indiana at 198 bushels per acre, Ohio at 177 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 188 bushels per acre, Wisconsin at 174 bushels, South Dakota at 164 bushels per acre, and North Dakota at 149 bushels per acre.
 
The latest WASDE report listed the total 2024 U.S. corn production at 14.87 billion bushels, which was lowered from 15.14 billion bushels last month. The 2024 U.S. corn production was below the record level of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023; however, it is still about 1.2 billion bushels above the 2022 corn production level. The latest USDA report put the total demand for corn usage in 2024-25 at just over 15.1 billion bushels, which is a slight increase from 2023-24 corn usage figures. USDA is projecting corn export levels to increase by 158 million bushels in 2024-25, along with slight increases of 21 million bushels in corn used for feed and 22 million bushels in corn processed into ethanol. 
 
USDA is estimating 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which was a decrease of 198 million bushels from the December WASDE report. The estimated 2024-25 ending stocks are 12.6 percent lower than the final ending stocks of 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24; however, the current projected carryover exceeds the 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23. The corn stocks-to-use ratio is now estimated at 10.2 percent for 2023-24, which compares to ratios of 11.9 percent in 2023-24, 9.9 percent in 2022-23, and 9.2 percent in 2021-22. At this point, the projected 2024-25 ratio is still well below the relatively high stocks-to-use ratios of 13.7 percent in 2019-20 and 14.6 percent in 2018-19. The anticipated reduction in the available corn supply could offer some potential for short-term rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months.
 
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.25 per bushel, which is an increase of $.15 per bushel from the December estimate. The market year average (MYA) corn and soybean price estimates for 2024-25 are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2024 crop from September 1, 2024, through August 31, 2025; however, they do not represent estimated prices for either the 2024 or 2025 calendar year. The projected 2024-25 corn price of $4.25 per bushel compares to a final MYA price of $4.55 for 2023-24 and is a significant decline from the final MYA prices of $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23 and $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22. The current projected MYA price is also slightly lower than $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21; however, it far exceeds the national average corn prices of $3.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19, and $3.36 per bushel in 2017-18.
SOYBEANS
The latest NASS report projects the final 2024 U.S. average soybean yield at 50.7 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of one bushel per acre from the November yield estimate. The 2024 yield compares to recent final U.S. average yields of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023, 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022 and 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021. Total U.S. soybean production for 2024 is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels, which is an increase of 204 million bushels from the final 2023 production level. The recent WASDE report estimates total soybean demand at 4.349 billion bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year, which is an increase of 244 million bushels from 2023-24 soybean demand levels. Soybean crush levels are expected to increase by 123 million bushels in the current marketing year, while soybean exports are expected to be 130 million bushels higher than 2023-24 levels. Soybean exports in 2024-25 would still be 155 million bushels below 2022-23 export levels. 
 
The latest WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year at 380 million bushels, which was a decrease of 90 million bushels from the December report. The projected 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are an increase of 38 million bushels from the 2023-24 carryout level of 342 million bushels. The current projected ending stocks compare to recent year-end carryout levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, and 257 million bushels for 2020-21 Current levels are well below ending stocks of  525 million bushels in 2019-20, 913 million bushels in 2018-19, and 438 million bushels in 2017-18.   
 
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is now estimated at 8.7 percent, which is similar to the final ratio of 8.3 percent in 2023-24, but is higher than the ratios of 6.1 percent in both 2022-23 and 2021-22 and 5.7 percent in 2020-21. The projected 2024-25 ratio remains is still considerably lower than soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23 percent for 2018-19 and 13.3 percent for 2019-20. The reduction in the 2024-25 estimated soybean supply may offer some opportunities for some short-term rallies in cash soybean prices in the coming months, especially if weather issues develop in South America or with the 2025 U.S. soybean crop.
 
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level (MYA) soybean price for the 2024-2025 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel, which is unchanged from the December estimate. The estimated 2024-25 average soybean price would be a significant decline from the final soybean MYA prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. The 2024-25 MYA price estimate would be comparable to the soybean MYA price of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21; however it would still be considerably higher than the MYA prices of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20 and $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19.  
 
Market Reaction to the WASDE Report
Both corn and soybean market prices showed a very positive market response following the release of the latest WASDE report on January 10th. Nearby cash corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 14.5 cents per bushel following the report, closing at a price of $4.70 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 corn crop since late June of 2024. By comparison, nearby corn futures were at $4.59 per bushel in 2024 and $6.70 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The December CBOT corn futures price, which is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 corn crop were up 3.25 cents per bushel at the market closing on January 10th, closing at $4.50 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT corn futures prices were at $4.91 per bushel in 2024 and $6.07 per bushel in 2023 following the WASDE report in January.
 
CBOT cash soybean futures increased by 26.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report, closing at a price of $10.25 per bushel. This was the highest CBOT closing price for the 2024 soybean crop since late October of 2024. The current nearby soybean futures price is well below the CBOT prices $12.40 per bushel in 2024 and $14.87 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report. The November CBOT soybean futures price that is used to determine price bids for the anticipated 2025 soybean crop was up 17.25 cents per bushel following the WASDE report and closed at $10.31 per bushel. The “new crop” CBOT soybean futures prices were at $12.04 per bushel in 2024 and $13.97 per bushel in 2023 following the January WASDE report.

For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions Group
Phone --- (507) 381-7960; E-mail --- [email protected]